At least we dont have people typing posts in all caps with ridiculous statements like "DOW IS GOING TO 50,000 BY YEAR END!" and then the body of the post saying "SHORTS ARE GOING TO BURN!"
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Funny thing is housing is one of the better performing sectors for this past decade. If you lived outside the 4 bubble states, your easily up over 50% this decade. Case shiller futures are pointing to a bottom next year. We'll probably see some greens over the summer like last year but Cramer may be right in aggregate that this summer may be THE bottom.
Yeah but like I said earlier the thing that confuses me is we have the lowest mortgage rates. Now we have inflation coming again. What happens when mortgage rates hit 8 or 9 percent maybe even 10. Where does real estate go then...
The Case-Shiller futures have no liquidity whatsoever. They are long dead. If you use a Globex terminal you can see there hasn't been a single trade for months. The "curve" you are seeing is nothing more than the bid-ask midpoints. Try to put in a bid yourself and you'll see how it changes everything. I haven't seen even a new bid/ask posted for a long time now. I'm wondering why those things weren't delisted though. Seems the total notional outstanding is only like 10m.
Ummm, your Washigton Township/Ridgewood home isn't up anywhere near 50% since 2000, and neither is any town in Bergen County. What are you talking about?
Pulling the numbers from here : The Housing Chart That's Worth 1000 Words "The median value of a U.S. home in 2000 was $119,600." "The median value at the end of 2008 was $180,100. " That's 50.58% increase. Knowing that the 4 bubble areas are exacerbating the data to the downside, one could assume that home prices are above that number. Local areas and the like may vary. I cited the Shiller futures as there really is nothing out there that can or may give some indication to future prices. I haven't checked the Sun Spot Report or the Ancient Inca Almanac for home prices.
Convertibility, I'm not sure which numbers are correct, but the median value of a home in the U.S. as of August, 2007, was $220,000. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/business/26housing.html I appreciate your citing median, rather than mean, housing prices, as it's much more accurate, and less skewed by outliers (at the bottom and top of the curve).