Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by Shagi, Jan 22, 2008.
The cotton show is getting juiced up - belt up.
What are your thoughts on cotton? I trade it once in a while
The recent strength seems to be coming from fund money that believes that Cotton is undervalued (relative to other commodities). Cotton is benefiting from a general increase in investment funds going into commodities (take a look at the rising open interest)
The market also expects a reduction in acres this crop year (planting is around april). The expectation is that as corn and soybean prices continue to rally farmers will switch crops to take advantage. this is essentially already priced into the market.
Despite this the fundamentals remain bearish. there is a huge domestic and global carry out of stock from year to year and the global textile industry is hurting because yarn prices havent increased in line with the raw cotton price. China, being the biggest consumer of cotton drives demand and this demand seems to be waning. there is even talk of textile mills in the far east mothballing operations until the economics of spinning yarn improve.
its unlikely that cotton will be able to keep pace with what is happening in the grain markets
Limit down move today. expect nearby March to retrace back to 63c area over the next few weeks
Be patient - that limit down move was a classic shakeout - I picked it at 69 around the shakeout bottom - next week the rally show commences
Thats May Cotton - electronic session
Party getting started right here
Solid on buyers side - this looks like its going one way and fast
Phew - serious rally now under way after a strong shakeout -
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