Always a favorite stop-over joint. I don't trade it.... just observing..... -lines are coming back. Does that mean its not overvalued? I have no idea. But it is getting busier again. And not just on a Saturday. I make it a point to watch every CMG I see. But they have a long way to go to get back to their hay-day. Gotta love the food though. Lines are picking up.
I loved Chipotle, back in early 2000's, stopped when a Qdobas came in, as they had buy 10 get 1 free but on double stamp Tues. made it 5:1 similar to CMG's current promotion as well as queso. I eat there weekly and have a coworker determined to hit the 12 per mo. In fact, I'm probably getting it after I type this as I could go for a Barbacoa.lol. As for the stock, it made me $1700 on Tues, and $1150 yesterday, buying and selling, the 392.5's, as its bounced off $390, for a few weeks, and sell near $400. I would like to catch one of its $100pt moves in a handful of sessions though. I also want to try the chorizo when it rolls out but read it isn't very spicy as it should be. IMO still a momo stock at 52wk lows which could crush shorts near-term. The health scare is overblown as nowhere else has hand sanitizers in the line...much worse restaurants out there.
CMG was going to do $15 in earnings before the troubles, so lets take that down to $13 figuring that some people have permanently changed their habits. And then applying the old growth rate as a multiple, that gets us to $390. So it seems pretty fairly valued making some generous assumptions ($13 earnings and 30x) and CMG is not cloes to $13 earnings. So it doesn't really look that cheap despite being a great company.
Lol exactly as I said with its 5% pop on Friday and 10% off it's lows...if only my options order filled at $417. Oh well, but made 1.5pts on PANW options so not a totally bad day.
Good job. I would never ever short this thing. All it would take is one word....."China"..... It would be at $750 again overnight. And why wouldn't they go into China... hell if they announced that.... YUM China would be a great short. CMG would ROCK over there. Me thinks its gonna happen some day.
Chipotle Brings Families Together with Free Kid’s Meals on Sundays Kids eat free every Sunday in September with the purchase of an entrée DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 30, 2016-- Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) today announced a promotion that is sure to keep everyone in the family satisfied. Every Sunday during the month of September, customers will receive a free kid’s meal with the purchase of an entrée. To accompany each kid’s meal, Chipotle has also partnered with the beloved children’s book, Dragons Love Tacos by Adam Rubin and illustrated by Daniel Salmieri to create limited edition in-store activity sheets that are fun for the whole family to complete. This Smart News Release features multimedia. View the full release here: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160830005005/en/ Kids eat free at Chipotle every Sunday in September. (Photo: Business Wire) Kids eat free at Chipotle every Sunday in September. (Photo: Business Wire) “For more than two decades we have been serving families better food made with ingredients parents can trust — ingredients raised with respect for the land, the animals, and the farmers who produce them,” said Chris Arnold, communications director at Chipotle. “We think good food is at its best enjoyed with good company, and we hope families will join us on Sundays to share a meal together.” The kid’s meal promotion is valid when purchasing a burrito, bowl, salad or order of tacos, and includes any Chipotle kid’s meal, including the build your own option and the quesadilla. Transactions that include the free kid’s meal will count toward Chiptopia, Chipotle’s loyalty program that rewards customers who make multiple paid visits to Chipotle each month with free food when transactions total at least $6. The promotion is available every Sunday in September. For more information, please visit Chipotle.com/freekidsmeal.
OK, I'm gonna try to redeem myself here.... after the big AAPL fiasco. This thing is at $414... I think its time to jump in a big way. This is one for the retirement funds. Buy it, sell the weekly calls... if you ever looked, they get bank. It would seem $390 is a solid basement, it held through all the BS....so after a few weeks of selling calls, your downside risk is pretty nil. Ackman owns 10%. Chipoltes Canada? Chipoltes China? Drive thru on-line order pick-up at new stores? Extending Friday Saturday hours to 11PM? Its all there. Ackman is gonna make it happen. Next years comps are gonna be easy. This Q's lousy comps are baked in. CMG is going up. But hey, I shorted AAPL at $108 (and $105!)....so wtf do I know. This is a good long term plan though.... barring a 10% market correction ala Yellin & Co. Your only risk is getting them called away. Thats one tasty burrito.