Two new papers suggest solar activity is a ‘climate pacemaker’ Anthony Watts / 3 days ago January 9, 2015 Fig.3.a. Low frequency index aSST3.4(red) and NOAA anomaly index Nino3.4generated by the climatology method (blue). Here are some highlights of these two new papers published in Physics Letters A by David H. Douglass & Robert S.Knox: Central Pacific region temperature dataset SST3.4 from 1990 to 2014 is studied. SST3.4 contains a sustained signal at 1.0 cycle/yr implying solar forcing. SST3.4 also contains a signal (<1 cycle/yr) showing El Niño/La Niña effects. This signal contains segments of period 2 or 3 years, phase locked to the annual. A 12-month moving average improves on a “climatology” filter in removing annual effects. Global ocean temperatures at depths 0–700 m and 0–2000 m from 1990 to 2014 are studied. The same phase-locked phenomena reported in Paper I are observed. El Niño/La Niña effects diffuse to the global oceans with a two month delay. Ocean heat content trends during phase-locked time segments are consistent with zero. The papers, the link downloads the full PDF: Paper 1 Abstract Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature time series data contain segments showing both a phase-locked annual signal and a phase-locked signal of period two years or three years, both locked to the annual solar cycle. Three such segments are observed between 1990 and 2014. It is asserted that these are caused by a solar forcing at a frequency of 1.0 cycle/yr. These periodic features are also found in global climate data (following paper). The analysis makes use of a twelve-month filter that cleanly separates seasonal effects from data. This is found to be significant for understanding the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon. The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures David H. Douglass & Robert S.Knox Physics Letters A; ©2014 Elsevier B.V.; doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2014.10.057 Conclusions and summary Phase-locked sequences are found in Pacific Ocean SST3.4tem-perature data during the periods 1991–1999, 2002–2008 and in 2009–2013. These three sequences apparently being separated by climate shifts. It is asserted that the associated climate system is driven by a forcing of solar origin that has two manifestations: (1)A direct phase-locked response to what is identified as a solar forcing at a frequency of 1.0 cycle/yrfor the whole time series; (2)A phase-locked response at either the second or third sub-harmonic of the putative solar forcing between 1991 and 1999; 2001–02 and 2008; and again between 2008 and 2013. This study confirms the results of that some of the largest maxima/minima in the oscillations of the phase-locked state corre-spond to well-known El Niños/La Niñas. For example, the sequence 1996 La Niña – 1997/98 El Niño – 1999 La Niña corresponds to a minimum–maximum–minimum portion of phase-locked segment #9. The climate system is presently (June 2014) in a phase-locked state of periodicity 3 years. This state, which began in 2008, con-tains a maximum (El Niño) at about 2010 followed by a minimum (La Niña) followed by a maximum (weak El Niño at about 2013). If the climate system remains in this phase-locked state, the next maximum will not occur until about 2016 – i.e., no El Niño before that date. On the other hand, if a maximum occurs before then, it will signal the end of the phase-locked segment (and therefore a climate shift). On its web site the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-ministration asks: “How often does La Niña occur?” Answer: “El Niño and La Niña occur on average every 3 to 5 years. However, the histori-cal record the interval between events has varied from 2 to 7 years. …” Our findings show that duringphase-locked time segments the period is either 2 or 3 years. If a longer interval is observed, this is notrepresentative of a variable ‘period,’ but indicates the occur-rence of a climate shift between phase-locked segments. It is pointed out that the 12-month moving average filter is demonstrably superior to the climatology method of removing sea-sonal effects in data. This is seen to be the case for interpretation of El Niño/La Niña data, which contains spurious annual effects when treated under the climatology scheme. An extension of these results to global data will be presented in a second Letter . It will be shown that patterns of sub-harmonics identical to those described here occur throughout the oceans. Paper 2 Abstract In part I, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature index SST3.4 was found to have segments during 1990–2014 showing a phase-locked annual signal and phase-locked signals of 2- or 3-year periods. Phase locking is to an inferred solar forcing of 1.0 cycle/yr. Here the study extends to the global ocean, from surface to 700 and 2000 m. The same phase-locking phenomena are found. The El Niño/La Niña effect diffuses into the world oceans with a delay of about two months. The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures David H. Douglass & Robert S.Knox Physics Letters A; ©2014 Elsevier B.V.; doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2014.10.058 Fig.2.Plots associated with T100. a. T100(black) and aT100(red). The 24-month and 36-month phase-locked segments are indicated by green shaded rectangles. Climate shifts are indicated by black horizontal segments. b. Autocorrelation of aT100in-dicating, in the three periods noted, periodicities of 24 months (2002–08) and 36 months (1990–99 and 2008–14). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) Conclusions and summary Global ocean temperature time series from the surface to depths of 2000m since the year 2000 are found to agree in detail with those of other diverse climate indices. It is asserted that these systems are driven by a forcing unquestionably of solar origin that has two manifestations: (1) a direct phase-locked response to what is identified as a solar forcing at a frequency of 1.0cycle/yrfor the whole time series; (2) a second phase-locked response at a period of two years or three years. With these findings it is becoming clear that the entire cli-mate system is responding to the varying incident solar radiation, and is subject to interactions, most likely nonlinear, thatproduce the subharmonics of two or three year period, and is moreover evolving non-continuously, as evidenced by breaks in the pattern whose timing can be identified with known climate shifts. The most prominent manifestations of the pattern are found in the El Niño/La Niña phenomena. As emphasized in , the “natural” pe-riodicity of El Niño/La Niña is two or three years, and observations of longer intervals should be considered probable evidence for an intervening climate shift.