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CL Journal

  1. Long June @47.88. Initial stop 46.21.
     
  2. What's your profit target
     
  3. It's a swing trade so no real hard target. Will just take profits, if so fortunate, when it looks like the market will reverse. I would be happy with 52.50.
     
  4. Did you intentially open right before the inventory number?
     
  5. no. Chart just looked good for a swing
     
  6. Do you trade crude normally? About the only major market moving events are inventory every Wednesday at 10:30 EST and OPEC meeting info that happens every few months I believe.
     
  7. Yes I trade regularly. We'll see if my stop is robust enough. We're down a little right now.
     
  8. I'm going long around the 47.10 area.
     
  9. i'll take mid 46's for a scalp
     
  10. I don't know anything about Crude Oil. I just trade the charts.
     
  11. Since you have started a journal: What do the charts say?

    H.
     
  12. Right now, they say long---that's why I bought--
     
  13. That's an excellent reason to trade.
     
  14. The reason to trade is to make money. A chartist TA trader like myself is able to trade any liquid market without any knowledge of underlying fundamentals. In fact, analyzing fundamentals likely clouds thinking when it comes to trading markets. What I do is limit my losses and let gains run to maturity. That's basically just about all one needs to know.
     
  15. What charts do you usually use for swing trades like this? 1 hour? 4 hour? 15 minute?
     
  16. All 3 plus daily and weekly
     
  17. A bit of an early setback here as price is currently 46.86. Stop remains 46.21.
     
  18. Stopped out for loss of 1.68
     
  19. Long June 46.17 Initial stop 45.20
     
  20. :D

    you went long in a downtrend, pretty much what surf does
     
  21. There wil be losses in trading. There will be wins in trading.
     
  22.  
  23. Learn that it's ok to publicly display your losses
     
  24. B1S2, much respect and thanks for posting.

    I was long from 53ish and took a big hit. I flipped short, but closed between 47.30 and 46.80. Net=a big drawdown. Crappy timing.

    I continue with confidence, nevertheless.

    Generally, I find that veteran traders won't fault you for a loss. The inexperienced always find a way to expose themselves. People fail at trading because they can't handle losses.
     
  25. This journal is getting off to a horrific start. So much for the charts.
     
  26. i hope you weren't holding overnight tonight...
     
  27. He does quite well with his ES journal calls, it's just one or two trades, cut the guy some slack.
     
  28. I specifically remember you making some against the trend hero calls and being completely wrong. It happens.
     
  29. He fades an index with a VIX of 12. Mean reversion has never been better. I remember that clown in 2008 holding shit for 200 handles in his face with a market a little more volatile then this one.
     
  30. Stopped for loss of .99. I'll take the next signal.
     
  31. Long 44.15 Initial stop 40.93
     
  32. You obviously don't look at his journal recently.
     
  33. i was looking at that crash last night and decided to stay away
     
  34. Exactly what chart(s) are you looking at that have you only working the long side? Decent rally off last night's crash lows, but outside of that its been a fairly steady down trend
     

  35. Welcome to all things crude bullish since Asian session last night...
     
  36. There is no chart. There never has been. He is a classic fader. He will not be able to produce a chart showing any bullish strength because there is none. He gets stopped out and simply re-enters over and over and finally he is right and says it's all in the charts. LOL.
     
  37. 4 charts agreed that long was in order. 15, 60, 240 and Daily.
     
  38. [​IMG]

    Yeah, that's one hell of an uptrend. LOL. What a circus act.
     
  39. Mav- that's one heck of an uptrend indeed ;)
    I'm new to Elite - how do you get a nice chart like that embedded in your post?
    Sorry for the dumb question - and thanks.
     
  40. Grab the html link from the chart's location and then use img in brackets before the link then /img in brackets after the link


    [​IMG]
     
  41. [​IMG]

    Thanks - great day for crude - have a good weekend!
     
  42. Sorry I can't show it without it thinking I have an image. If you reply to my post with the chart you will see the code in the post.
     
  43. Journal open to all--Izzy
     
  44. I'm sticking my neck out here! I'm with Buy1Sell2, and will put my money where my mouth is. Going long oil Monday morning. The entry will be verified in my Journal Monday at open. :)
     
  45. Don't !

     
  46. There can only be one of us right, let's see Monday, proof will be in the pudding.
    Thanks for your detailed contribution.
     
  47. http://www.afr.com/business/energy/...ate-to-sink-below-40-a-barrel-20170506-gvzk1e

    Bets on West Texas Intermediate to sink below $40 a barrel
    May 6 2017 at 2:47 PM Updated May 6 2017 at 2:47 PM

    About $9.4 million worth of options changed hands Friday that will pay off if West Texas Intermediate crude falls beneath $US39 a barrel by mid-July.

    It's come to this for the beleaguered oil market: a big bet that prices are about to sink to their lowest level in more than a year.

    WTI, which hovered around $US46 Friday, hasn't traded below $US39 since April 2016, though it's been dropping like a stone in recent weeks.

    More than 14,000 August $US39 puts changed hands, almost 20 times the number of contracts previously outstanding for the bearish option.

    The trade was a sign of the "crescendo of negativity" that's washing over the oil market, said James Cordier, founder of investment firm Optionsellers.com.

    Prices have plunged about 13 per cent in the last three weeks, amid fears that OPEC-led production cuts aren't doing enough to stem a global supply glut. For Friday's bet to work, prices would have to match that drop in the next few weeks, during a time when summer driving typically pushes demand higher, Mr Cordier said.

    "That's just a huge speculative bet that tells me that the fear is at its heights and we'll probably see oil recover," he said. "It's a hell of a lottery ticket that the market's going to keep falling."
     
  48. You are right, every thing can happen, nobody knows in advance. Just do your thing, conflicting opinions are what keeps the markets moving.
    Trade well!

     
  49. If I was to simply state my opinion I'd say next leg is more likely to be bearish.
     
  50. Continuing long here. Pricing is 46.90
     
  51. I went long 2 x stock positions (can refer to my journal) and 1 x stock has gained +2.5% the other +3.5% approx so far since open today.
    Hoping to hold for a few days.
     
  52. Long term chart remains bullish. Shorter term not so much. I'll be watching this one closely.
     
  53. Screenshot_20170508-044015.png
    What time frame? Weekly isn't that bullish.
     
  54. Mate :)
    MACD and a host of all that other old fashioned TA stuff works no longer. Believe me.
    Trading has gone beyond that, its way far more sophisticated.
    Every man and his dog has played with MACD when in trading kindy, you're gonna be outsmarted if this sort of stuff is what you think today's signals are made from.
    Not a put down, it's just reality of the times :)

    These days old TA sell signals are buys, and old TA buy signals are sells.
     
  55. Just consider price behaviour, forget MACD.
     
  56. Weekly is in pullback mode to the longer term bullish monthly and quarterly
     
  57. Actually, trading hasn't changed, just the interface has. --MACD as viable now as ever--(and that's very)
     
  58. I'm very very pleased traders believe and adhere to the (tried and untested) TA indicators of old.
     
  59. krude.jpg
    :wtf:
     
  60. You do realise that you can't backtest MACD to gain definitive statistical conclusion, due to a variance factor in settings, stop sizes, targets, visual perception of a tradable and non-tradable pattern emerging, psychological factor (a biggie this one), etc.

    You give a pattern to 100 traders and you'll have 100 different results.

    In "Sully" there is a bit where the board accuses Sully of his misjudgement of situation and landing the aircraft on water instead of making it back to the airport, multiple tests in simulator with different pilots pointed to his error of judgment, but he steps in and challenges their results by stating that their model does not account for the 'human factor' when time will always be lost when a human brain (which reacts differently from person to person) takes time to scramble to come up with a solution when faced with an unknown event. Same is applicable in trading, as every next moment is unknown and you never know how exactly you will be dealing with an unknown event.

    Another reaction to the unexpected.

     
  61. The key here in the short term will be a print of 46.87. I would like to see the action afterwards to determine whether or not top continue holding long. (Pricing is currently 46.62)
     
  62. Stop raised to 44.79
     
  63. Charts don't trade, traders trade...use what works for you and not what some one else thinks.
     
  64. Am I reading this correct, initial stop of 3220 dollars per contract ?

     
  65. ?? Where in the world did you see that.
     
  66. I'll be exiting my oil positions sometime today.
    The entry will be in my journal
     
  67. Was hoping for a stronger bounce.
    I'm not into insipid bounces :)
     
  68. LOL - MACD, ZLACD, SHLACD, TA, EMA, EMU, EMEA - whatever works for those who know how to read the tape, order flow, and manage risk.
    Long, short, it don't matter. Just trade it.

    There were 3 trades today - all hit their volatility range based targets - tomorrow is another day:

    [​IMG]

    France has a new President and euro lost its volatility, so thanks to crude for keeping it real...
     
  69. Buy1Sell2 said:
    Long 44.15 Initial stop 40.93
     
  70. Incredible.
     
  71. Quoting : "Long 44.15 Initial stop 40.93"
    Doing the math: substract the numbers and multiply by 10, which the tick value,
    I believe.


     
  72. Went short at 46.57, initial stop 13 ticks above. Stop already trailed as in the attachment.
    This is a day trade, I must be out in a couple of hours if not stopped before.
     
  73. Continuing long here. The idea would be to get to 46.87 and then reevaluate.
     
  74. Out
     
  75. Slow day - only 2 trades:

    [​IMG]
     
  76. At the moment , I see no obvious reason to exit my long from 44.15. Pricing is 46.61 currently.--Looking to get a print of 46.87 and reevaluate.
     
  77. Ok we've had a nice move here to 47.34. Stop raised to 46.30
     
  78. hey @Maverick74 , terrible start to this journal eh? Where's your live calls btw, I'd like to peek in.
     
  79. The print I am looking for now that would be significant and add creedence to the bull case is 47.76.
     
  80. There is a decent chance that I have moved my stop too close to the noise here. I don't move stops away from the trade though once I have them in place, so no adjustment for this stop. We're about a dollar above the stop currently.--Ishmael
     
  81. Terrible. The guy averaged down into a 9 pt selloff in CL. Got stopped twice and kept adding. Yeah, some real skill on display here. I have a thread I've been running for 8 years on this site. You should check it out sometime.
     
  82. Reader--I never average down. I am all in all out each time. Stops give me a way of reevaluating with a clear mind and also limit losses.
     
  83. Stopping out and re-entering immediately is the same thing. REFUSAL TO ACCEPT A LOSS. It's what eventually dooms all traders.
     
  84. Reader and Maverick74--I entered a little too early on my long and once stopped out, I had a chance to take a look and see if the bull case was still in vogue. In this instance it was and I certainly would not have been shorting. Averaging down might have actually have been better for me in this case because I might have had a better average price, but over the long haul averaging down will be inferior to all in all out. One other item to mention--I was stopped out the second time at 45.20 and I reentered long at 44.15, so using the stop I was able to save 1.05.
     
  85. We may be getting ahead of ourselves here. I don't like it when things too quickly in my favor. It begins to smack of overdone. Staying long at the moment, but watching closely.
     
  86. EIA - EAI - Oh!
    Nice EAI crude inventory price action. 2 trades today, first one was hard as blazes to hold through news, but that's what trailing stops are for. Second trade - fade from new relative highs offered 20-40 ticks.

    [​IMG]
     
  87. Still may have my stop too close to the noise here, but it's working so far. I continue long here from 44.15 with the stop at 46.30. Pricing is currently 47.78
     
  88. Slow Friday as she recoils prior to Baker Hughes Rig Count - only 2 trades today.
    Agreeing with @Buy1Sell2 that 4775s are an inflection point:

    [​IMG]

    Have a great weekend to all!
     
  89. Staying long here with the same stop. No obvious reason to get out just yet.
     
  90. Pricing is currently 48.59. I'm long from 44.15 --will stay that way for now.
     
  91. @Maverick74 just awful trading.
     
  92. Bottom picking is a terrible way to make a living.

    BTW, he is still negative on this journal. His last position had a $4 stop (smaller position then the first two). He lost 2% then another 2% and by the distance of his stop, he is only up 2% so far on this one. He is still down.
     
  93. %%
    Another problem with bottom picking, so few do it, because not much liquidity there . I accidentely picked a top once, but that was in a different market + i did not mean to do it. He may have pulled off his ES profits, to do it.
     
  94. I havne't seen any recent trade calls mav, you said you have a thread doing on 8 years but I don't see anything recent, can you post a link to some recent trade calls win/lose or draw?
     
  95. The thread is over 3000 pages long and spans 8 years. There are plenty of calls there although that is not the purpose of the thread. I'm not going to hold your hand and walk you through them. I'm proud to say we also have the highest quality traders on this site there. The door is always open.
     
  96. Reader and Mav74--- All positions are taken with the same size. All in all out. --I have not had a 4 dollar stop .
     
  97. Current Journal Tally---
    2 trades. 0 winners, 2 losers
    Net loss 2.67 plus 2 commissions.
     
  98. You stated on the ES thread that your risk is the same on all positions as a % of your account. Your stop width thereby dictates your size i.e a 1Pt stop will be a larger position then one with a 2 pt stop. Why would you abandon that for this thread? And honestly, crude oil requires 10 times better risk management then ES. It's asinine to trade the same number of contracts in CL with different stop levels. Just one man's opinion...
     
  99. No. I never risk more than 2 percent of Total Liquid Net Worth on any one trade or idea. That doesn't mean I am risking the full 2 percent each time. There are lots of stop levels that keep me inside the 2 percent number with the same number of contracts.
     
  100. Fair enough. I recall you mentioning some formula you use to determine the # of contracts based on the size of your stop.
     
  101. @Maverick74 I consider bottom picking quite a lucrative endeavor as the sharper the drop in an index towards a weighted support the less the risk vs reward, which is key to sustain a positive equity curve. Could you possibly post more regarding your opinion on this being a net negative exercise? Thanks.
     
  102. Hats off to anyone willing to keep a journal, and openly sharing/reflecting on winners, losers. Everyone has their individual reasons to share, reflect, or not. The best part is... if you think you can do better - then you are welcome to do so (or at least try). If you don't buy any of the BS, you are free to go elsewhere. A few years ago, one of the most profound traders in the business shared live footage of his trades in real-time...

    No one believed it to be true, yet he was remarkably profitably beyond most comprehension. He was accused of paper trading - observers even debated whether the color of the DOM revealed paper vs. live mode. Yet if one is that crazy profitable at paper trading, why wouldn't one settle for even half the profits with real dough? To this day, no one knows for sure if this guy's profits were real - he can only answer to himself, and he owes no one an explanation. Let the markets decide.

    Crude is screwed, man.
     
  103. Current pricing is 49.31. Staying long from 44.15 right now.
     
  104. %%
    PT Jones does fine aiming/hitting @ bottoms; i would not call it picking bottoms. Most do some sort of trend trading/ investing.Takes all kinds to make a market; prefer good trends myself
     
  105. I think nearly all trades involve picking bottoms and picking tops on some time frame.
     
  106. Exited June at 49.20 for a gain of $5.05.
     
  107. Entered July long at 49.53. Initial stop 46.20
     
  108. @Maverick74
     
  109. great trade B1S2
     
  110. I'm also long, only day trade, flat at end of day....would be nice if we get some stops taken above 50 if we can hit it and propel this thing a bit.
     
  111. This will be my last comment about this and then I'll leave him alone. The only thing that matters to me is your sharpe. Not what you "make", but the variance you have to put up with to make that amount. He took 3 trades over 15 days and netted about 2.65. But the variance he had to tolerate to make that 2.65 is unacceptable to most professionals. Considering the avg monthly range for crude had been about 3 dollars for the last few months and it had a 6 dollar range just in the period of time in which he was long. Pulling 2.65 out of three trades which that much variance doesn't work for me but perhaps he is willing to accept that kind of volatility. Most traders work diligently to extract profits "without" having to take that much variance in their p&l. Anyone can make money with high variance. That's simply the risk premium in the market. It's there for the taking. The key is to extract the alpha, not the risk premium. I'll leave this thread to the OP now. I've said all I need to say. No need to repeat myself.
     
  112. Thanks
     
  113. Moving in the right direction--so far. About a dollar in the money.
     
  114. %%
    LOL
    Put it simple, OK,, long as as its not confused with predicting.200 dma is still up, not that that was the bottom.NOT every friday is payday, but i prefer sooner than later when the 200dma starts changing, it has. Modern Trader magazine [JUNE]has the current chart on TX TEA a cup with handle buy above $50, but i use a 200dma more than any subjective stuff.
     
  115. Looking decent so far here at 51.19
     
  116. Long term charts remain very bullish
     
  117. Disagree, I don't see the 'very' part, I'd have sold it here, but who knows, I'm not convinced either way.
     
  118. %%
    I see your points,Maverick 74...,...
    AS far as ''pulling $2.65 out of $6 range'' OK Say he is trading trends; $6 sideways trend, which you called a range.OK;OK i dont want to get in the sharp measure problems, now. Plenty of trend followers take 50% out of trend, prefer more, myself,when possible ,but he made a profit.

    Bottom line i would much rather get $2.65 than less or loss;
    Shell Oil & Trading took out more> 20% profit/+ than XOM past year or so[North American Oil Sales][ 20%+/ means 20% more or less]

    This comment is a trend comment, not an argument-thanks. By the way TX TEA/related ,can+ has gapped against ANYONE, much , much, more than ES,SPY......
     
  119. True Buy 1 Sell Oil; but much more risk for Uptrend with 6 month candlechart is bearish, as of FRI close. Could go to $60. SPY , ES + SPXL,QQQ, UPRO are better uptrend$ as of FRIDAY close.NOT a prediction; frankly i could make a good case for TX Tea uptrend or downtrend , as of FRI +Monday, morning. .........................................................................
     
  120. %%
    As i noted i could make a good case for longer up bull trend ; or down bear trend =6 months. barchart .com has over all buy 8% , mostly sell, WTI/Brent; but like Rich Dennis warned do my- '' your own research''


    PT Jones has done real well aiming @ = hitting bottoms [plural], some years anyway,OK; but most dont , why?? The math is wrong for picking'' the bottom '', TX Tea; stock indexes are much different.[As maverick74 implied]
    Several reason$ for that [#1] Its simply an ego thing for many; so wrong risk reward there.
    [#2] Like target shooting seldom hit the exact center like ''the bottom''; but then that is why all targets have circles [ plural]of larger targets on them.[3]We can skip the small sample; ''the bottom'' is not known except in hind sight; in the 1930's it was under a $00.55/barrel[less than 55 cents/barrel][4-7] If you can profit hitting bottom fishing; fine with me... ...
     
  121. Still long here at 51.69
     
  122. No obvious reason to sell or get short yet. Staying long here at 49.41
     
  123. Third lower top often results in a sharp downward move, see what happens
     
  124. Geez, when you went long at 49.53, what was your target price, when you did not sell when it hit 52.00? Now we're at ~49.25 and falling.
     
  125. At least 60 or an obvious sell signal
     
  126. At least 60? The last time it was $60 was in mid-2015. What in the chart would make you think it is going there unless you are legitimately using a monthly chart. I can see a case for that than. I don't see how oil is very bullish in the near term though, so I'd be wary of holding longs over extended periods. It at best is going to stay in this range. More likely to go lower imo.
     
  127. Down move likely close to being over here in the mid 48's --Staying long.
     
  128. %%
    I think it may hit $60; dont know if that is 2017 or not; one year chart is down+50 dma is down + downtrending. NOT a prediction. MODERN TRADER magazine, JUNE issue made a good case/charts for an uptrend or downtrend , TX TEA.......................................................................................
     
  129. Looking good here at 49.37. Staying long.
     
  130. %%
    I see your points thur$day down move amen;
    DEC 2017 Brent may hit $60/+, NOT a prediction LOL.

    BUT since this is mostly CL/TX Tea, i dont see $60 even on the monthly; MODERN TRADER magazine JUNE 2017 noted ,could be a cup with handle buy @ more than>> $50 area, which could help measure move it up to $60 area. But quite frankly, i like/love IBD [Investors Business Daily], but cup with handle is a cash stock pattern, he never noted that in derivatives LOL. NOT a prediction
     
  131. Nice bottom put in here
     
  132. That's what she said.
     
  133. Lol! Hey now!
     
  134. That's what positional bias does, now I know that Buy1Sell2 is very experienced in price action, but that was no bottom (as far as I am concerned anyhow).
     
  135. I'd say it was indeed a very nice bottom:

    [​IMG]

    And today's setups did not disappoint:
    [​IMG]
     
  136. You're posting a 5 minute chart in support of a trader that uses mostly Daily charts :)
     
  137. Absolutely - very nice bottoms begin on 5min charts...
    I don't believe in swing trading crude ;)
     
  138. I tend to consider bottoms irrespective of a time frame, rather a reaction to a horizontal price level.
     
  139. Daily is only one of the charts I use.
     
  140. CL amateur  zebra hour.png
     
  141. Nice bottom here again.
     
  142. Sooner or later you will be right of course.
     
  143. I have been referring to short term bottoms. Both have been good intraday long opportunities. --and yes every long term bottom starts as a short term bottom.
     
  144. so far 2 for 2.
     
  145. Every bottom you called made a new lower low. You are 0 for whatever....
     
  146. How can you say you are 2 for 2 when those bottoms don't affect your trade in any meaningful way? You went long before those "short term" bottoms, held through them, and are looking for around $60. These bottoms are inconsequential to your trade.
     
  147. This is false. Both bottom calls offered very exceptional day trading long opportunities.
     
  148. %%
    That maybe the bottom, for ES, SPY, SPXL, QQQ; bottom area approximate for early or 5 minute charts today in WTI. LOL.Too early in the intraday for me to call a kangaroo bottom tail.
     
  149. I don't see why I can't call out a short term bottom without making a trade. I am not claiming that I made any money from the calls.
     
  150. %%
    Sooner or later looks you will be right; looks like later.
    Since you started out CL Journal with a trade on WTI [or something very correlated to it LOL]

    We figured you were actually trading that bottom.Some traders think ES,SPY is correlated to oil; it has been But i always wondered if daytraders liked that simply because looking @ more data, could cut down on commissions .LOL.??

    CNBC calls plenty of bottoms; but you do better than CNBC, i seldom read themLOL.
     
  151. Why be a condescending prick? Is that just your natural disposition?
     
  152. edit: nm
     
  153. nice highs, nice lows, it doesn't matter, for those who are session traders out there, this morning offered both sides:

    Crude is screwed, man.
     
  154. %%
    Maybe Re2016; but with that post dated may 3rd most of the longer term trends wereUP , including the 12 month charts. Fast forward or medium speed forward, LOL ,many of the trend$ including 12 months are down, today before lunch JUNE 5.Thanks.

    NOT a prediction + NOT calling the bottom.; we maybe closer than 7 days ago?? The bottom is only'' known'' in hindsight anyway.Thanks
     
  155. Nice bottom here.
     
  156. %%
    Its an old , tired bear trend; may get older LOL. NOT a predicition; let see what end of day trends..................................................................................
     
  157. I don't see a bottom.

    Screenshot_20170605-174341.png
     
  158. I'm seeing more downside. It tried to go up last few days and couldn't. Momentum is back to selling.
     
  159. %%
    Same here ; except i see 3 of them on your candlechart, but that is 20/20 hindsight. LOL. But i dont confuse a bottom with ''the bottom '' ==big difference. Nice chart; JSS
     
  160. Bottom called correctly again.
     
  161. Bottom call needs stop & target, otherwise it's meaningless & you know it.
     
  162. I provided a bottom call and it was accurate. I did not make a claim of a trade. This is fine.
     
  163. Trade or not, prices oscillate continuously, oil is down yet again.
     
  164. It is?
     
  165. You do understand that I'm calling intraday bottoms right?
     
  166. Yes, I do. Price hasn't really gone anywhere of substance and then retraced anyway, hence my post regarding the absence of a target does not qualify as a bottom call IMO. So you made a call for price to go up, which it did, but then went down, all you did was state the obvious - price is heading up.
     
  167. Right. This was a successful bottom call as price rallied 40 cents after my call. I'm 3 for 3
     
  168. What would have been a stop loss required for your call considering the 40 cent upside?
     
  169. It doesn't matter, but you can easily see that it would have been a max 15 cents.--And it never traded more than 2 cents below where the call was made.
     
  170. verrry verrry slooow, but... nice session lows ;)
    london session close finally offered a catalyst - the longer the balancing zone, the greater the move:

    [​IMG]
     
  171. Nice move here. Need to clear 48.39 for legs.
     
  172. This is why long term trading, with no basis in fact, is very foolish. Your stop at 46.20 was just hit.
     
  173. By the way, I was short CL from 48.05.
     
  174. Three lower tops on weekly chart.
     
  175. I may be speaking nonsense, yet Rouble looks shaky and the pair seems to be basing for an upside breakout, Rouble heavily depending on valuation of oil could be secondary sign of next move in oil.


    Screenshot_20170607-160319.png
     
  176. Stopped for loss of 3.35
     
  177. I'm glad B1S2 shows the good, bad, and ugly. This is trading, you take a view of the market, make a play on it and see what happens. Sometimes you're right, sometimes you're wrong it's the way it works. Beware of the people who claim or show only success, it simply doesn't work that way.
     
  178. I notice you systematically respond to to quite a few of B1S2's replies, minutes after.

    I would beware the people who take multiple stops of over 3 dollars in oil, several times over, and claim they aren't paper trading.
     
  179. Looking for the next Long
     
  180. As most folks know, I am primarily a position trader and so a 3 dollar stop is relatively small. In fact, I indicated in this thread that my stop was likely too close to the noise and it was. But I never move stops away from the trade for discipline reasons. It actually gives me a chance to reevaluate. ---Looking Long again here.
     
  181. To quote one of my favorite congressmen ... a 3.5 point stop here, a 3.5 point stop there ... pretty soon you're talking about real money.
     
  182. Actually paraphrase...Everette Dirkson of course.
     
  183. You are allowed to feed, but please do not disturb the herd.
     
  184. %%
    Good points JSS,+ Buy1Sell2; or at the very least label it a daytrade, especially since it was started as a swing -position journal.That way, if its a daytrade ;we will not think you are risking $3 to make $8,[ a logical position sometimes, sometimes not ]as derivatives guy warned LOL.

    MODERN TRADER magazine June issue, had a lot of charts, articles on TX Tea ;
    i like their charts , even though i did not think thier ''cup with handle buy@ $53/ JUNE ''+would be a good time to risk $3 to make $8 . But i did not want to make a prediction on that.LOL
     
  185. I'd be interested in positional longs around or below $30 atm. I feel like U.S. production is going to drive price into the ground again. Maybe it'll never get there, but oil at these levels isn't very compelling to me.
     
  186. %%
    Maybe ;
    but it has to close below $45 to get there. NOT a prediction .Expect Extremes -Richard Dennis
     
  187. Beware of someone who creates a new nick to chime in.

    Beware of someone who posts trades well after the fact.
     
  188. %%
    OK;
    unless you know they are honest.I dont think Buy1Sell-oil,likes that new nickname, so i will beware of calling him that.
     
  189. I'm not linked to b1s2 in any way other than I appreciate his posting. 3 dollars in oil may be a big stop to a day trader but likely not a huge one for a position trader looking for 10 dollar moves.
     
  190. LOL - he's not charging you a mgmt fee, and you are entitled to a full refund!

    I appreciate anyone who is willing to stick their necks out and share their logic/rationale...
    They may not always be right, but hey - it's their forum and you can always go elsewhere if you have found some other holy grail of the perfect, free, online forum that posts trades in advance and is always accurate. All the best with that.

    Meanwhile, every participant has one of three choices:
    A. Snark (those who cannot do tend to criticize those who do)
    B. Reflect (open your mind and you might learn something)
    C. Share (everyone has their personal reasons when they do this)

    The choice is yours!!
     
  191. short 46.10, exit 45.50.

    Hows that "next" long looking now? You're like MarketSurfer's evil twin... you only buy into a sell trend, and he only sells into an uptrend.
     
  192. I only have one account. I never learned to share as a child. Better you should follow someone who loses 7 to make 10 in how many weeks? If this was a real account being traded, he would be wiped out several times over already.
     
  193. You pussy!
     
  194. If I was to go long this would be the area.

    Screenshot_20170608-132550.png
     
  195. The proper stop size for a long position in a $45 product is $135... Geez.
     
  196. ?
     
  197. Long. 45.84 Initial stop 44.30
     
  198. Screenshot_20170608-171113.png
     
  199. awesome S/R level - they are hotly debating it ;)
     
  200. Possible slide now.
     
  201. Staying long here at 45.95
     
  202. %%
    That must be daytrading math?? LOL I dont know if it works with that stop; but Market Makers Edge/Joshua Lukeman has some good[swing- position-trend stuff] .if you dont mind reading fractions/lagging..... LOL
     
  203. %%
    I agree with about 95% of that, JSSPMK Not the luck part; John trend-follower Henry said ''what you call luck i call a small sample'' Look$ like it finished up 4 /+cents fromB1Sell 2 entry .

    William O Neil -[IBD]noted when an elephant gets in a bathtub ;all will know it.[ I remember as kid, my banker dad bought some peanuts @ zoo. And after watching the caged elephant pattern of feeding .... i fed it some peanuts.It used its long trunk to slowly take peanuts from your hand]
     
  204. Luck is a major contributing factor, to be at right place at right time helps amigo.
     
  205. Staying long here. Current pricing is 46.41
     
  206. Out at 46.03 for gain of .19
     
  207. If the market is a long term buy as you're claiming, and you're a long term position trader ... it doesn't make any sense that you got out here, when nothings changed. It means you're just shooting from the hip with enormous stops, and no clear picture.
     
  208. I also would like to say that trailing stops can be absolutely disadvantageous, as if you were to trade double/treble bottoms/tops you should know what is the average expansion range and stick with your position as long as your stop holds. Settling for peanuts is for monkeys. 'Profit is profit' mentality is for folks that accentuate value of higher win rates, rather than concentrating on extracting maximum profit.
     
  209. The guy got 19 ticks profit and had to suffer an unrealized drawdown of God-knows-what. Stop chastising him for it. I do not know what his position size was, but yeah, the whole
    mentality works great for most people.

    Do not care about what you "could have made", just care about what you "did make".

    There is nothing wrong with taking profits early. They are PROFITS. Huge wins are just fuel for an ego-driven fire that will get quenched when the huge losses come in. This is trading 101 guys, come on!
     
  210. Rookie mentality right there. If your SL is larger than your profit target you'll be taken out eventually. Buy1Sell2 does not have a high win method, so it's vital to have the right targets vs SLs. Now this is trading 101.

    Have you ever pondered why 99.9% of sports tipsters can not sustain a positive equity curve in their calls? Because they either tip at odds that are too low (below evens) or too high. Now this here are results from a tipster that tips from 3.0 to 6.0 odds, I believe the image is self-explanatory.

    Screenshot_20170613-180444.png
     
  211. And on the flip side, if your profit target is larger than your stop loss, you'll be taken out eventually. This is trading 101 also.


    Nope, I cannot say I have pondered it. I have no idea what a sports tipster is, but it sounds like a gambler betting in sim mode. Except, trading is not gambling. It is trading.
     
  212. Yawn, what's this drivel about gambling? O...M...G! You either know how to extract value (whatever you are backing) or you don't.

    FWIW this "gambler" has 10k real followers that make lots of money, lose some, win some, end result - net positive.
     
  213. The difference between gambling and trading is...Trading has no fixed house odds. Gambling does. You dig?
     
  214. No. Gambling is when you are chancing it, trading (whatever you are backing, be it tortoise races) is when you have stats, experience/knowledge, capitalisation, don't treat each bet as THE ONE, know what's attainable, fully understand & implement risk management criteria.
     

  215. So the following is NOT gambling?

     
  216. Long 46.31 Initial stop 44.50
     
  217. The one person I referred to isn't a gambler, categorically no. Most are gamblers yes.
     
  218. 3 consecutive green days often lead to 4th being green too. I'm still not keen though due to weekly 3 lower highs.
     
  219. Weekly chart + extra slow MACD, Buy1Sell2 I know from years back wouldn't be a buyer here, something's changed & I can't put my finger on it. Maybe it's a different person behind the mask...I dunno.

    To me it looks like we are set to re-visit $26 area. Time will tell.


    Screenshot_20170614-010329.png
     
  220. Agree! Doesn't matter whether profits are big or small, they need to be in proportion to losses.
    I've tried for big profits, unfortunately the market doesn't allow for it 99% of the time.
    So you take what is available, when available, if you are forced into a shorter profit timeframe, then losses need to be too.
     
  221. I'm a gambler, I don't bother with anything other than taking a number of punts, some win, some lose, I'm here trading purely to make money any which way possible where I see an opportunity within the limited scope of my ability.
    I have no hangup or complex being called a gambler, but I think many on ET think have a complex on this terminology.
    If you want to go fancy, call me a professional gambler, because I pay tax on winnings.
     
  222. It's not the market, but the way you set your stops. If you bank on a double bottom your SL has to be below reaction lows of that DB & then you have to just hold your position. It's as simple as that, though most find it very hard to do, due to fear & greed.

    It is correct that target ought to be in relation to your SL, I do not dispute that. That's why I am not in favour of trailing stops, it locks in partial profit in relation to your SL, making your gain much smaller at times than what it needs to be, then comes a losing trade and puts you into red. 1 win has to offset at least 2 losing trades IMHO.
     
  223. For me its not stops, I hold no stops, its the trend, when that ends (or believe it is ending) I exit.
     
  224. But you May be wrong seeing trend change, it's personal perception vs fact, perception when you think a trend has ended and fact is when low caves in.

    Price a lot of time oscillates, always in fact, shaking out weaker hands, whereas reaction lows represent facts, if they held you gotta hold and expect the average range expansion based on your research.
     
  225. I may be wrong on entries, wrong on stops, wrong on trend, wrong on position size, wrong on method, wrong on holding period, wrong on a large number of things.
    It's a stupid discussion.
    No point justifying anything other than are you having fun, are you making bank.
     
  226. If it was a stupid argument I wouldn't be taking part in debating it.

    Bottom line, if you have a consistently high win method you could get away with targets being smaller than SLs, if you don't & most traders can not sustain a high win rate, then your targets have to be larger than stops used, as if not it will be 'game over'. Buy1Sell2 does not have a high win method, so trailing stops & reducing reward in relation to stop level makes 0 mathematical sense. There's nothing to discuss really, it's simple probability.

    Rational that trailing will increase profitability of a trade is flawed logic, as you could simply be shaken out and price will continue onwards in anticipated direction. I always advocate having a target, not according to future developments of a trend, but a hard target which normally rests near next weighted support or resistance zone.
     
  227. And I have seen COUNTLESS times where a trailing stop would have been a lot more profitable than a hard target. Cue the NQ yesterday.
     
  228. In a world where traders do not incur losing trades this will work long term, otherwise not. Profitability doesn't just depend on win/loss, it depends on reward/risk too.
     
  229. If your SL is 2 units and target is 4, but due to trailing before reward has been reached you settle for an average of 1 unit reward, then you need to maintain a 67% win rate to break even before applying operating costs. Can you maintain win rate above 67%? The vast majority of posters on ET and other portals struggle to maintain win rate above 50%.

    That's why I don't adhere to 'profit is profit' mentality, tiny profits will always be wiped out by losing trades, the problem is they don't just wipe out profits, they reduce your trading capital.

    The main reason so many would agree with you is down to fear of a loss so they find comfort in early settlements, it is only when you realise that losses are part of 'the game' and you build your strategy around acceptance of the latter you'd be on your way to maintaining profitability.

    It helps to think - what if my trading decisions will have probability of a coin toss? Would you settle for reward smaller or equal to your loss? I wouldn't. I'd want to have reward to be a multiple of my loss. I risk 1 to gain 3 on average.

    If you trail after your target has been reached that's absolutely fine.
     
  230. You finished now?
     
  231. If you don't find value, then ignore.
     
  232. Will do! Bye.
     
  233. CL just hit 45.00. Care to admit now that you're just clueless with an entry at 46.31 when you could have entered .80 lower during the same day?
     
  234. 44.70! Almost there!
     
  235. 44.54!
     
  236. Why root against the guy.
     
  237. %%
    I like a trailing stop; like moving averages.
    But about once a month/+ or once a year i like parabolic stop + reverse. it tightens up like a target price...................................................................................................
     
  238. Because I was shorting it.

    44.38. Ding.
     
  239. I'm sure you did, smh. Nice after the fact call hero.
     
  240. I'm not making calls. I'm just responding to the question asked.

    I'm waiting for B1S2 to come back and say that his enormous stop of $2.00 wasn't hit because it was "mental" overnight.
     
  241. Long 44.53 Initial stop 43.95
     
  242. This position was stopped for loss of 1.82
     
  243. Why not just make your stop $30.00? It would be easier than having to continuously repost bad paper trades based on no information.
     
  244. Please show proof of your short or it's a paper trade too. Or better yet, put b1s2 on ignore and move along troll.
     
  245. So are the three of you the same person? Algofy = B1S2 = MarketSurfer?

    Only MarketSurfer was this poor of a trader.

    I'm not here to post my trades, but I have noticed repeatedly he's always on the wrong side of my trades ... and he's always wrong with enormous stops.
     
  246. I never understood why people were concerned with other peoples trades.
     
  247. Since this is a public forum I'd just like to inquire what are the reasons to keep going long. Thanks.
     
  248. Current Journal Tally---
    6 trades. 2 winners, 4 losers
    Net loss 2.60 plus 6 commissions.
     
  249. That's fine if it suits you but people rarely give a reason for their trades. If you don't know their trade plan and are not looking at their charts then it's a guessing game anyway.
     
  250. If people just post calls without wanting to discuss, then might as well keep a private journal, no?
     
  251. I'll give you kudos for the accountability. You post your trades in real time and you accurately reflect the results. I can't knock that. That's rare on ET. I don't understand the trades but that's fine. The only criticism I have is I wish you would explain your reasoning for your bullishness. I'm much more interested in why people take the trades they take vs the actual numbers. Because the "why" invites dialogue. Just posting numbers doesn't really offer that.
     
  252. Great post.
     
  253. I don't try to guess other's motivations, simply don't see the point of the exercise but to each one's own. My own trades demand enough focus without bothering about someone else's. When I was learning, I had the good fortune to be in an environment of experienced traders who posted charts, entries, exits and explained the signals....that was very useful. If you find value in something less than good for you.
     
  254. Then why post the trades? Like you said, your trades demand focus. Why even bother? To further add to this, what stops you from adding some comments on some quiet sunday morning saying, here is what I'm thinking. It's not against the law, but this is a message board and the purpose of it is to discuss. You don't have to of course, but it does make the experience more enjoyable.
     
  255. Then enjoy.
     
  256. I believe the original B1S2 was abducted by aliens, as current one trades in a different way. As an example I remember B1 being able to identify major trends & trade in that direction, posting various divergence based turning points & overall being a very active debater.
     
  257. He is a level 5 trader now, by his own definition.
     
  258. USD/RUB turning nicely, banking on a bounce. Is Rouble signaling continued weakening of crude?

    Screenshot_20170615-201256.png
     
  259. %%
    Long?? Long term TX Tea/Brent charts /trendlines are mostly going up; example WTI from 1973 +1987+ today=UP. But 5 days, 5 years + from US civil war, TX Tea is going down.

    I dont know why Jim Rogers + my 1973 chart uses oil adjusted for inflation , none of my other charts are adjusted for inflation -it make$ oil more bullish/uptrend than it is LOL
     
  260. I don't believe he is trying to establish position trades.
     
  261. no swing trades, no position trades, actually no idea if crude is going up or down...
    only 2 session trades hitting small targets on a slow Friday:

    [​IMG]

    BH Rig Count did nothing so far...
     
  262. %%
    Done thaT, derivatives guy;
    WORKS WELL, risking $ 30 to make $80 .Or $3 to make $8. NOT that i would risk $30 on $44.44/+. LOL I risked about that % in Hurricane Hydrocarbons, but that was a single stock+ it looks like the shorts starTTed covering+ i seldom daytrade, but i had to in Hurricane Hydrocarbons , because my profit .......

    Another REASON I dont think MODERN TRADER's buy chart [WTI] of june oil @ $53/+ cup with handle, is a good buy; they maybe right, but cup with handle is a cash market pattern.
     
  263. %%
    Amen+ frankly i dont like inflation adjust charts,[ which make oil look more bullish] even though i like Jim Rogers.Even if $44.44 is a good buy? It closed up more....I still dont like inflation adjusted charts unless EVERYthing is inflation adjusted. I agree with him oil is going to $60, maybe Brent ; maybe not this year for $60 WTI??
     
  264. LOL I think he means Buy1Sell2, not Buy152.My banker Dad liked to pay - hunt hogs+ eat them/porkchops. I joked with my neighbor, we shot trespassing hogs for free.........................................................................................................Not a prediction; bloomberg business said oil storage is 60-70 cents/barrel
     
  265. Crude is very bullish long term. I am trading with the trend.
     
  266. No, you are not. As I said earlier, you seem to have forgotten how to evaluate trends.

    Screen Shot 2017-06-17 at 10.11.07.png
     
  267. A member of Project Mayhem does not have a name. When he dies, his name is Robert Paulson.
     
  268. It would take a close below 39 to have me reevaluate my long term view of CL being bullish. Until then, or an obvious sell signal, my position trades will be from the long side. --And Swings could be from either side.
     
  269. As another poster has suggested if your outlook on oil is macro based, then might as well position with stop being substantially lower & hold.

    Secondly, monthly may close below 39, yet quarterly may close above it, then what? Monthly bar has previously closed below 39, proceeded to previous reaction low of 30 zone, overshot it & bounced back up.

    But make no mistake - current trend is down.
     
  270. I dunno. During the crash of late '08-'09, I expected INDU to fall to a level seen in '95ish. It didn't, but adjusted for inflation, it did.

    During this time, oil crashed, but the contango went crazy. I wanted to get long, but couldn't see paying a $20 (If I remember correctly) spread.

    Does not the current curve suggest lower volatility? IV as well.

    I like the long here, but not a $60 target. Of course - things can change.
     
  271. %%
    Yes, Mr Don; lower vol suggested; but higher volume when they really, really want TX TEA LOL.
    Sometime$ NOT adjusting for inflation can be a good thing.Pardon me for using a small sample; i bought something @ the Dollars store+ strangely the checker said ''i'm trying to give you this'' it was an old liberty dime, i gave her an extra 00.25. She gave me some more change back + the liberty silver dime. BUT i did not want to pay her='' adjusted for inflation LOL '' ; i seldom use a small sample like that............................................................................................
     
  272. %%
    I see your points JSSPM; i measure trends a lot of different way$. And here is why so many HATE Tek Analysis LOL. Measured from monthly HIghs, most of the trends are down; measured from the monthly lows most of the ttrends are UP.

    Measured from open to close[ your monthly chart, my many charts] its up trending again. MODERN TRADER MAGAZINE[JUNE issue mailed late May] make$ a good case for a bull move or a bear move. Nice Chart/candlechart........................................................................................
     
  273. He stated - long term, oil in an uptrend. Who cares what it did in 2008 or maybe what it did since 1965, I ain't holding that long, neither would B1S2, so what relevance does it have to shorter holding periods? None.

    I have completely abandoned making decisions based on timed charts (monthly, daily, etc). The variance in those creates doubt. I just trade levels now, buy low, sell high type stuff. Bank on potential double/treble bottoms/tops, risk management takes care of most the decision making.
     
  274. Good points JSSPM;
    but you ALSO posted a long term Uptrend chart[>> that included 2008] LOL-LOL.......................................................................................................................I figure long term stock chart$ have more meaning, not many traders/investors take delivery of crude, many take over a company.
     
  275. I just posted it to make a point that whatever long term uptrend B1 was going on about is currently in a downtrend :)
     
  276. Common TA based analysis of current trend. Third lower top on weekly chart now in place. 1st Target - $40 is my guesstimate.

    #confluence

    Screenshot_20170620-024914.png Screenshot_20170620-024900.png Screenshot_20170620-024851.png
     
  277. Currently 43.45.

    Don't you get tired of being right all the time?

    MarketSurfer would be proud of your track record.
     
  278. Bias is pushing the wrong button clearly.
     
  279. I will get long at $0.00 if someone donates me a storage facility.
     
  280. Rouble started tanking, which confirms expectations of downside in oil. Without oil&gas Rouble is worthless.
     
  281. I don't see oil ever hitting 60$ again unless a major producer goes offline. One of the reasons oil was at such high prices was Iran had sanctions and China was double digit growth. Both those factors are gone.
    Everytime oil hits 60$ the non OPEC countries will start opening the taps even if OPEC gets a rate cut agreement among it's members.
    When OPEC was created I believe they controlled 70+% of the oil production, now they are under 40%
     
  282. Long here at 43.31. Initial stop 40.50. This is a bit more on the medium term side in the Auggie contract.
     
  283. Getting stopped has allowed me to get a purchase price roughly 60 cents lower than had I just held albeit with carrying charges etc. Continuing long bias until I see otherwise.
     
  284. Last trade was a loss of 60 cents. Let's see how we do on this one.
     
  285. I am awaiting at least one post of value from you, hopefully it comes soon.
     
  286. I'm convinced that you are utterly unable to recognize value. Yet you can grab a free cookie from my bakery.
     
  287. A cookie sounds good, where is your bakery?
     
  288. Selling pressure still present & looks like more to come, slow MACD on this weekly chart doesn't look inspiring for longs.

    Screenshot_20170621-161757.png
     
  289. %%
    JSSPM;you dont think that is a good uptrend, CL is going up from $26.26+/ area+ UP from 1987 price ??
    Actually i like a good uptrend , it could turn around in $44.44 area+ has before . LOL= NOT a prediction; most all the ttrends are down. I dont consider TX TEA a good uptrend @ all.o Of course if some like the AMTD ad ''always be buying low'' could work. But i like IBD system better;always buy HI + sell Hi/Higher; sell low + cover lower..........................................
     
  290. IMHO current overall trend is down. The fact that price is above $26 doesn't constitute an overall uptrend, just a retracement, weekly 3 lower highs confirm this. And today yet again the selling prevails.
     
  291. Bottom is very close now
     
  292. I'm long via UCO eft. Thinking we we will have a replacement up to 47 or so. I am noob tho what do I know. Just gambling. I will stop out if we go below the 42 and stay there.
     
  293. We have a market :)
     
  294. The key is to get above 44.16. This will give a good chance of legs.
     
  295. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury: I rest my case.
     
  296. I don't get it. You have a cookie for me or no?
     
  297. I'm amused, and I'm sure many more will be willing to enlighten you on the route towards my famous bakery. You have to be some type of Guinness World Record of stupidity or something.
     
  298. I might have that record, how do I check?
     
  299. I am not taking sides here...I just wish to point out a bit.

    Fran T., you did type this...

    "I'm convinced that you are utterly unable to recognize value. Yet you can grab a free cookie from my bakery."

    So algofy DOES get a free cookie.

    Just sayin', man. Black-and-whites are yummy. Toss algo a free one of those, and all will be well.
     
  300. Darn straight, thanks overnight.
     
  301. There are many free cookies with many flavors... at my bakery. :)
     
  302. Do you deliver?
     
  303. Continuing long here . Pricing currently 44.09.
     
  304. Much better chance of legs here with the print over 44.16. Now looking for a print above 45.06 to signal more continuation.
     
  305. We've got the print. Looking for more upside continuation now. Staying long hier.
     
  306. Always deliver. 100% guarantee, or your money back.
     
  307. Well...let's deliver.
     
  308. %%
    Looks like it may hit $45.45+ $60, but that's brent.CL mostly bear trending. I'm actually wanting also to buy part of an oil co, still looking...................................................
     
  309. LOL - fran still owes algofy a cookie...
     
  310. yep still waiting.
     
  311. Staying long hier at 46.24
     
  312. Congrats to longs from London lows. Aggressive targets hit, which is especially nice for a holiday Monday. Happy 4th!

    [​IMG]
     
  313. Pricing currently 47.13. --Still long
     
  314. Counter trend bottom fishing to establish positional trade with only reasoning that macro trend is up (which is questionable) :cool:
     
  315. Pent up volatility during Holiday weeks can easily result in 50 tick retail stopouts when news comes out (weekly API report). For London open, will be looking to see if she can fuel some momentum above 4550s and power back up to 4650s. The closer to 45s for possible entry the better (only during London open). Sustain activity below 45s negates the setup.

    Mindful of EIA Inventories at 11:00 ET on Thursday. We don't care what the news is, only when it occurs.

    If you trade CL without knowing the 3 most important times of each week, good luck!

    [​IMG]
     
  316. Aside from the usual 10:30ET Wednesday report, what are the other two important times for CL?
     
  317. Thought the same thing ... maybe 9am and 230pm est old pit session times? I know there is also a rig count at some point but I've never paid attention to it.
     
  318. You already have the weekly EIA inventories.

    Weekly API Report (typically Tuesdays 15:30 CT, but we had one today due to holiday - hence the 50-100 tick rejection spike we saw late afternoon today - that was not random).
    http://www.api.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WSB-2017-schedule.pdf

    Baker Hughes Rig Count Fridays 12:00 CT.
    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview

    We don't really care what the news is - only when and that it exists. It's not that these news events create bullish or bearish conditions - it's more that they serve as very useful reference points 'imprinted' for the rest of the week and into next week.

    Take the reaction/price behavior relative to the news 'imprints', combine with your own order flow and tape reading skills, and you have the ingredients to develop a very interesting trading strategy ;)
     
  319. Don't know if there were news or not, but something has aided our position hier. --at least temporarily.
     
  320. We'll need to break above 47.32 fairly soon or I will be looking to sell.
     
  321. Weekly Oil Report came out today instead of yesterday due to the holiday. If you weren't a paper trader, you would know this.
     
  322. I only trade chart/price/indicator combo. I do not want to know news. It's too much information.
     
  323. 4650s: Target Acquired - onto the next trade.

    For next week - now that we know the 3 most important times each week, there are also 3 key times each day...
     
  324. Well you're bad at it. The bulls got pretty much everything they could have hoped for out of this report including big inventory draws in all products and record high product demand - however, it appears it took the machines a little longer to read down the report and spot the fact that production soared to new cycle highs... and WTI/RBOB prices are tumbling.
     
  325. Man how can you trade oil and not at least be aware of the reports.
     
  326. Yeah, sure you trade off of price, but the reports are usually areas of volatility.

    That's the information that anyone should derive from this.

    Some trade the reports, some avoid them; that's discretionary.

    It may not matter as much for a long term trade, but the timing is something to be aware of.

    Timing is everything, right derivativesguy?:D
     
  327. News is too much information since it's too difficult for the retail trader to determine direction from news. I disregard news entirely an only use chart/price/indicator combo.
     
  328. The only caption that comes to mind for the chart below is "The Importance of Taking Profits"

    --there is no such thing as a swing trade with light, sometimes sweet, yet always crude oil...

    [​IMG]
     
  329. 8am 130pm cst whats the third? 2am?
     
  330. Yes there is...if you have enough capital for it.
     
  331. %%
    And end of day settlement price ; most have voted by then..................................................
     
  332. Settlement price has no bearing on price movement upon market re-open (with futures at least). Come on Murray, you're better than that. :)
     
  333. Settlement price is the most important price of the day. Murray, you don't need to take this vitriol.
     
  334. How often does settlement price influence price behavior of the session next day?
     
  335. Every day
     
  336. WRONG
     
  337. You don't understand the oil market Romy.
     
  338. B1S2, please explain.

    "Daily Settlement Methodology
    Front Month
    The front month
    settles to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of all trades in the outright contract that are executed between 14:28:00 and 14:30:00 ET, the settlement period, rounded to the nearest tradable tick."

    So 14:30 ET influences price movement the next day? What about the price movement from 14:30 ET to ETH close at 17:00 ET?

    Show some charts that back up your intercalating.
     
  339. Closing price is the most important price in any market. There can be no other.
     
  340. You did not answer the question.
     
  341. The answer is readily apparent and unwieldy.
     
  342. If that was to be true there would be 100% edge present, but it just isn't so. "Every day" is far from reality, why don't you trade daily closes & we'll see.
     
  343. B1S2, I'll give you a pass here...You're smoking the funny stuff. Progressive society and all that.
     
  344. HUH?
     
  345. There is only one edge. You know that.
     
  346. Screenshot_20170710-011254.png
     
  347. I'll type it again...You're smoking the funny stuff if you think settlement price in futures has any bearing on future movement. It is just the settlement price, man. It only affects people who hold for swings, not for daytraders. It does not dictate where the price will go in the future. It is just a VWAP on previous movement and it settles on a price point, for clearing reasons. It is a RESULT of the previous day's trading, not an existential indication of future price action. Jeez.
     
  348. I believe a close does have relevance, but certainly isn't the most important variable. Traders mostly look for oversold & overbought conditions to maximize return and reduce risk.
     
  349. What I am getting at is that the settlement price is just an arbitrary number the exchange must use to "settle" outstanding transactions in the queue. They had to come up with some way to do it, so that is it. There may be deeper reasons for the particular times the exchanges choose for their "settlements", but future price action cannot be a result of that. The settlement prices must deal with the invigorating machinations of the futures markets, and cannot have a bearing on the future.

    Remember, settlement of a futures instrument does not equal close of that instrument.

    Just follow price action on the charts, you'll see.
     
  350. First of all, I don't smoke dope nor drink. I'll give you a pass. Secondly, the most important price of the day is closing. And especially Fri.
     
  351. I wish you success. Happy trading dude!
     
  352. Did you just knock your king over without being mated?
     
  353. Staying long hier
     
  354. Nah, I don't like playing chess against myself. Get a headache doing that.
     
  355. LOL - last week I posted a likely trade setup hours before it happened, complete with setup, point of failure (aka stop), targets, and even likely timing.

    Apologies my schedule prohibits me from providing this level of service with every trade ;)

    But in case there are ever any doubts regarding future setups, if Bloomie or Cartoon News Network or Goldie should ever post S/R levels, know that there is a 95% chance I'll be monitoring those levels to take the other side ;)
     
  356. Nice move late today. Really like it. Staying long.
     
  357. %%
    Haha;
    OK;
    i pay more attention to trend,too.
     
  358. We don't care WHAT the news is, we just care THAT the news is:

    [​IMG]
     
  359. I see no reason to pull the plug on my long yet------other than the fact that I'll be rolling into Sep shortly.
     
  360. Out of Auggie at 46.46 for gain of 3.15.
     
  361. Rolled long into Sep contract at 46.66. Initial stop is 42.00
     
  362. Critical area here at 47.31. ---Let's break through and make this new support.
     
  363. I remain long here with pricing at 47.31. Looking to break 47.55 and go higher.
     
  364. No reason for me to sell here at 48.38.
     
  365. FALSE
     
  366. looks like the swing trade is working out for you b1s2
     
  367. Yeah, good job (so far), OP.

    You win this month's Sitting On Your Hands Award.
     
  368. Do you scale out or have you been holding the entire position the whole time?
     
  369. Thanks.
     
  370. I don't believe in scaling in or out. It chokes off profits when correct and over the long haul.
     
  371. Staying long here with pricing at 48.67 and stop remains. In addition, I will exit on a close below 45
     
  372. Pricing continues top favor my position here at 49.16 Staying long.
     
  373. Reminder---trading CL (or any market) does not require any knowledge of, or review of, fundamentals.
     
  374. Trading ANY market only requires one thing, which is your edge, and that is prudent risk management.
     
  375. Buy1Sell2... can you start a private thread with me please

    thank you
     
  376. Add me if u do please.
     
  377. I'm thinking we maybe topping here, at least for a retrace no?
     
  378. I don't currently see that. It could be, but I don't see it yet.
     
  379. I totally misread it... its going parabolic now.
     
  380. Too much guessing and emotion, it's up decent today, far from "parabolic".
     
  381. Looks pretty steep compared to the price action in the past few days.. and its going up slow, not like one of those algo explosions. I've only started looking at CL recently tho.
     
  382. It's interesting, where are all the haters at when b1s2 is 500 ticks in the money? They sure are here when he's 300 ticks under water. Crickets around here.
     
  383. It was an impressive trade indeed, especially holding through the pull backs and not taking profit. I couldn't do that.
     
  384. It's ok.
     
  385. It's not hard. My philosophy is that decisions are more likely to be wrong, so limit the decisions.
     
  386. The trade's not over.

    Indeed, win or lose, study trade management.

    I can tell you from experience - the long term oil swing trade is usually not an easy one.

    And it's not easy to post trades live. It can mess with your head. You see very few do it with price and even fewer with size. OP is one cool cucumber.
     
  387.  
  388. ????????
     
  389. Looking decent here at 50.27. Stop raised to 44.04
     
  390. Just reflecting on the chart activity today. I played 54 holes and really wasn't watching. Believe I'll stay long hier with the same stop. Pricing is currently 48.70.
     
  391. Why not just get out now, protect your profits? That API number should be rolling into your mind at this point. Why chance it?
     
  392. At the moment, it just looks like normal pullback and doesn't fit my parameters for reversal, so I need to stay long.
     
  393. I don't anticipate or pay attention to news.
     
  394. Headed out to play 18.
     
  395. 89
     
  396. ....better than 99
     
  397. 89? Holes of golf?
     
  398. I am guessing that 89 was his golf score on 18 holes. If the course was 90 par, he's good for -1. A winnar!
     
  399. I like those 90 par courses.
     
  400. I once drank some spiked Kool-Aid, got a hole-in-none on a par 4 and went back in time. When the time warp stopped and let me off, I was in pre-Cambrian Africa. I pet a dinosaur on the nose. He pooped out my negative golf ball. All of a sudden, I woke up and was back on the green, standing where the golf ball was before I made the shot. It was weird.
     
  401. What are you smoking this eve?
     
  402. Your brain. *puff puff* Here, take a toke of your own head man! Woohoo! (And the suits are picking up the bill. On the house!)
     
  403. :D
     
  404. 17 over par.
     
  405. bogey golf is about where I am.
     
  406. Anyone day trading this from the west coast? I start watching it at 5am Pacific but even this I feel is not early enough.
     
  407. Yeah, I am. I know what you mean. It seems that 4am is about right on some days.

    It makes the swing trade more compelling.

    I have the luxury of napping during the day where I dream of 65 golf scores - and that's just the first nine.
     
  408. Targets are typically fractal. Wondering if we can see 4950s today if she can sustain the move.
    Nicely done B1S2 - way to step in shortly after 0930 CT 15min candle closers:

    [​IMG]
     
  409. A review of the charts has me staying long this morning. --Headed out to play 36. --Talk to you soon.
     
  410. @Buy1Sell2 I wanted to ask you a question off these threads and tried to start a PM but the system wouldn't allow me. Would you consider starting a private thread with me so I can ask?
     
  411. Will reevaluate tonight and tomorrow. For now I remain long
     
  412. At this time, I feel that it is in best interests to stay long
     
  413. Good thread! Agree with the staying long here. This flat is about to get resolved to the upside. Five of a three or C here we come!
     
  414. Look to sell the longs around the 51.25 area and looking for short entries on the 5 minute from 51.50 up to 56.50 if it makes it up that far for a correction or a resumption of downtrend.
     
  415. Out at 47.72 for gain of 1.06
     
  416. Long October 47.84 Initial stop 42.00
     
  417. If you can hold through Hurricane Janet, you are either bold, brave, clueless, or a swing trader ;)

    However, nice support if they can keep it above 4757s. Can they hit 4820s today? If 4757s break down, the deal is off.
    In the infamous words of Jimmy Buffett - only time will tell.

    [​IMG]


    ... update - took some off 4780s, loaded more back down to 4757s - now just ready to close out if she breaches support and flatten or enjoy 4820s - only time will tell.

    Enjoy the weekend one and all!
     
  418. I would imagine holding a oil long through a weather event that could disrupt supply isn't a bad thing :)
     
  419. Friday was a good trading day even though they didn't hit my aggressive target... Will probably tag it Sunday night, but I don't hold overnight ;)
     
  420. %%
    Could be. NO wonder brent is up more. TX AG has posted a toll free telephone for TX longs that are trying to price gouge. That should not affect brent:cool::DMyself ,i usually try to avoid gov investigations, even when i'm innocent-they take so much time + some case, legal /CPA fees.....
     
  421. I continue long hier with current pricing at 48.84
     
  422. I am very short here at 49.25. Have some 49.5 and 50 OCT calls but am short the futures here. Don't think crude can sustain these levels and will trade back below it's descending multi month trendline. Have been fading it since 49.05 with no success... there is minimal resistance at 49.50... so i may stop out very soon, depending on price action.
     
  423. Hope shorts from 4925 took profits - she took a nice run down to 47s. 50s are now back in play. Have a good weekend all.

    [​IMG]
     
  424. Out of October at 49.82 for gain of 1.98
     
  425. I have rolled into November long at 50.30. Initial stop is 45.00
     
  426. crickets from the naysayers. How's the golf game b1s2?
     
  427. Still shooting from 90 to 100. Not much improvement other than I have been able to snap the club through the zone better with a much smoother tempo.
     
  428. Continuing long hier
     
  429. Ein sehr guter Tag für Ihren Handel.:)
     
  430. Vielen dank
     
  431. OP has been missing in action for a while, now.

    I hope that he just got sick of ET and is still trading the light fantastic.

    100 degrees where I was today in CA. Talk about taking some heat.
     
  432. What happens to CL Future Contract if I stay with it even after expiration in IB??
    Newbie here.. its my first post under Elitetrader forum.. Seems to be very helpful..
     
  433. If IB is a firm that can facilitate physical delivery, they might accommodate you in your sudden need to either unload your 1,000 barrels of oil "short", or assume containment of your 1,000 barrels (long). You're in a world of hurt as a basic retail trader if you get caught in expiry. Pay mind to the FN and LTDs of your futures contracts, whether they be physical or financially settled. Bottom line here is...Do not go into expiration with a physically-deliverable commodity, unless you are well-heeled. But basically, the onus will be on you for the money and storage (or delivery) of the underlying.
     
  434. Afraid Overnight is correct - you will want to call your broker immediately...
     
  435. Thank you guys for Reply, What is Rollover thing in future, isnt my future contract gets roll over to next coming month If I dont Exit position by expiration ..??
     
  436. Ummmmm
     
  437. Oil continuing higher as expected.--Izzy
     
  438. Ja Baby! --has anyone been with me on this all the way?
     
  439. Yep, I have been watching all the way. Nice going, OP.

    I think that your premise of an uptrend has been justified.

    No big deal, but there's no Nov./Dec. roll that I noticed.
     
  440. You may have not noticed a Nov/Dec roll (yet, it is still too early), but it seems some Saudi heads are going to roll. Beheadings in the near future! Yikes!
     
  441. Lost interest in posting for a while, but rest assured, the roll continues. You are referring to Oct/Nov
     
  442. Yeah, I noticed that, too. I don't blame you. I go away for a while, sometimes.

    The Dec. contract is the front month.
     
  443. Wow! I also just trade the charts, but now I see what you are saying.
     
  444. Doh, I screwed up the roll in my head. Yes, the next roll is Dec/Jan.
     
  445. Oil continues uptrend. Stay long here.
     
  446. where's the haters at @Maverick74
     
  447. Not to be seen
     
  448. Don't worry, next time you're taking a bit of heat they will come out of the woodwork.
     
  449. Wouldn't need to be much.
     
  450. Still looks Long to me.
     
  451. I like your idea of just holding and rolling, which I am thinking of doing in the equity indices. But I could never see that working in CL due to the special machinations of the crude market. The supply and demand constraints on Crude are major. Hell, the thing is down $2 since last week. So many variables, ug. I wish I had the mind to try the calendar spreads on it again, but I'm 9 months out from my last CL study.

    Good luck and fortune to you B1S2!
     
  452. Very good, hier (pronounced higher).
     
  453. Looking good hier. Staying Long both Oil and Oil stocks.
     
  454. Haven't posted here in a while but I maintain long bias rolling long each month. I expect much higher prices.
     
  455. Pricing @ 58.23 . Great day today. Looking for higher prices. If we were to close below 55 I would consider reevaluating.
     
  456. I may be shorting if we get close to 60 again. Depending how it looks.

    Looking a bit like distribution over the last few weeks...
     
  457. I do see the decidedly megaphoned shape on the daily that may correspond to your analysis. However, I believe the longer term trend to be upwards and think we'll break out to the upside.
     
  458. Market has been in a long term uptrend since Feb 2016.
     
  459. Thats true but Im thinking we will correct nicely if we fail to breach the 60 level again. Plus bulish momentum is fading on 4 hour and daily.
     
  460. That's what makes a market. Differing opinions. Correction would be ok though and then a rebut if timed properly.
     
  461. Good looking uptrend continuation here. Staying Long
     
  462. 60!
     
  463. Nothing like a middle-east pipeline explosion to stir things up. (And did anyone see HO today? Sheesh.)
     
  464. Since you have taken the initiative to start a public journal several months ago, in May, what is the net outcome of your trading in CL since then?
     
  465. Great first step. I am looking much higher.
     
  466. We may have some resistance in the 62 area, and I will do a review of long bias there.
     
  467. 60.47 currently. Staying long both oil and oil stocks.
     
  468. Just curious. What is the intended purpose of your journal? Attention? Instruction? An effort to keep yourself disciplined and honest?
     
  469. It is beneficial to myself and to readers to exhibit a documented approach to winning and losing.
     
  470. Fair enough. Perhaps all the more reason to keep a running total of the net performance, wouldn't you say? For the benefit of all concerned.
     
  471. Last print 61.36. Staying long here.
     
  472. Well, here we are at 62.

    Looking back at the OP, I see that the trade is exactly 8 months old! Impressive.

    Inventory report is tomorrow morning.
     
  473. It is today, actually. 11AM ET.
     
  474. Thanks. I stand corrected. That's what I get for staying up all night.
     
  475. Thanks.
     
  476. Currently 62.22. We are in the process of cracking 62 and leaving it behind, Continuing long here.
     
  477. Uptrend intact --Last print 64.44. Staying Long
     
  478. Right now, long is the way to be unless we were to drop below 54.