Sunday June 21, 2015. I'm back. ~ ~ ~ It remains to be determined if my last losing ES trade last Wed which dropped my account margin to below $400 will be a fortuitous event. ~ ~ ~ I was going to re fund my account until I looked at the 20% premium I'd have to pay due to the C$ conversion. The only contract available for me to trade now is the E-micro EUR/USD — the M6E. imo better than a mini lot, a $12,500 contract, $1.25 per pip, day trading margin of only $100 and o/n margin of just $300 . So now my account balance is down to $260.89 . I've got the rest of the week to make $250 and accumulate enough capital to begin trading the NQ, or, pay the premium and re fund. ~ ~ ~ My trading has been as terrible as ever, I've been banging my head against the trading wall, Very periodically, Very off, only sometimes on, for months and months on end, fortunately, AMP don't charge 'Inactivity Fees'. I've done no analysis on any instrument for an age, just reloaded MetaStock so I can do Daily and longer chart analysis. I decided to start this new journal because of that. I've always found writing the journals to be very beneficial, and this one is to get me back on track with proper daily analysis. My analysis methods work much better on the Euro than the ES. What's obvious is the Euro has just one component, the E v $ , while the indexes have many to very many components/stocks which seems to produce the extra very irregular PTWM that's not present with the Euro. ~ ~ ~ What trading the M6E has shown me is how different trading a much lower value instrument is. On the $ loss side it's $12.50 per tick for the ES v $1.25 per pip for the M6E. However the point is the threat of loss is so very much smaller which makes trading far more relaxable, easier, and altogether more enjoyable, and as the BBs sang, 'fun, fun, fun'. I read a 'which index is better to trade' thread and what I thought was missing for consideration and comparison was, 'tick value'. So if I am going to trade an index again, it's going to be the NQ. It appears to be less irregular than the other indexes and thereby a little easier to analyze and interpret it's Price Time Waves Movement, and, the tick value is a far more manageable $5 . ~ ~ ~ I'll be trying a 12 sec chart to trade off, and 1, 5, 15 displayed with 60, 4H and D minimized to complete the daily analysis package. Those charts are the 6E and I've a 2" x 2" M6E chart to see fills and watch where the price is, sitting on top of the Basic Entry. While trading decisions are based on the 6E charts, it's necessary to wait for the M6E price to get to where I want to click the button, it does not move in lockstep with the 6E, although it sometimes gets ahead of it. I'm still annotating the charts, and still trying to get a Green Buy, Red Sell system working. I'm a bit closer with that than last I wrote about it. Annotating goes along with it, or rather the PTWM analysis which is auto with my viewing any chart. While the low cost single pip of the M6E may lend itself to GBRS trading and trying to reduce and or eliminate analysis while trading, Friday's 6E Sep vol was 165,543 , while the M6E was 14,357 which may be too low for GBRS trading the 12 sec chart, I'll be finding out. ~ ~ ~ I'm not going to be posting daily trades calls. I'm not sure actually what I'm going to be posting or when or how often. Maybe it'll only make sense to me. Euro: believe it's going Down. Index: believe they're going Down. A bit tardy 'sell in May and go away' To those who've not followed my calls before, and a reminder to those who have, I've been known to be wrong ~ ~ ~ wah-hahahahahaaaaa ~ ~ ~ Watching the Women's FIFA. BIG US turnout up here in BC Place Stadium to watch team USA beat Nigeria last Tuesday, suprised how many came up from far and wide across the States. Team Canada's up at the same venue at 4:30pm, will see if the attendance beats the USA's. Footy and trading, can't ask for more eh ? ;
Mon Jun 29, 5:30pm. wired in a minimum $ amount. was going to live trade my GBRS system on the nq but found the sec/min charts weren't working as well as I thought they were going to. switched to the NT UniRenko - attached - and while I demo traded, not sure if I've got the correct size ? charts yet. the major difference between a renko and time or similar charts is time charts have a lot of peaks and valleys, consequently many signals. renko charts have few peaks - depending on their size, so there's usually a constant green or red series of price bars, far fewer signals — continue the trade till the bar changes color. the question in question is, should I Try and trade the mini corrections ? like a 60 or 4H chart renkos can be displayed so that the price continues in the same direction for hours on end, as well as a chart resembling a secs tf chart. the nq is quite spikey at times, and not necessarily due to a large vol order. some may call mini price move corrections noise, garbage, but there's profits to be had and, the price can turn and become a large rally before higher tfs and renko charts register a move has begun. theoretically the gbrs is an always-in system, so in theory one would always be in at the start of a rally or decline. how much am I giving up/losing by Not using a smaller tf, vs how much Might I lose trying to trade the bouncing price ball ? will examine charts later to get a better $ idea of the renko chart performance; what size renko charts to use; is the es a better candidate for trading than the nq ? ------------------- Euro: quite a surprise to not only see the rally 'close the gap' but also have a hc. continue to expect the euro to Decline. Index: the Daily Apr-Jun formation looks like an H&S; this is wk 6 of the W decline. not sure yet if it's a 'Watch-Out-Beloooowww' scenario or just a correction before another rally. continuing to think Sell ------------------- looking forward to the semis but would have preferred to see Japan v USA and England v Germany. friggin HOT here.
Mon Jul 6. 3:00pm. in theory, one only needs one price chart with which to trade. my gbrs system is supposed to work based on a renko chart's 'signals'. I now have a single renko chart, but, can't do without time charts, have to be able to 'see' where the price is going. ( or do I ? ) displaying a 5m, renko, BE and switch-between 15 - 60m. have to demo trade the renko for a while to learn what sort of losses there'll be. think the ideal tick value is $2.50 , tho there's no instrument that trades at that amount. think the es can't be renko traded because the tick value is too high at $12.50 . 'every signal' renko trading would possibly result in a 2-3 tick loss plus comm ~ $20 per 'switch' or REV trade. some trades should see a one or more tick profit, and overall losses should be offset by longer run profitable trends. ............................... while an interim rally may happen, 'Watch Out Wednesday' - possibly from early in the session - when the decline may resume. Euro: Decline. Index: Decline. ............................... Very successful Women's FIFA World Cup eh. would have preferred a tighter final, but if you ARe going to win then win BIG. and now for something completely different, Le Tour !
Wed Jul 8 1:37pm pst Index: wondering - es specifically - if a strong base has formed during the past two days. this suggests a good rally may begin - now.