Just found this old random vs fake contest on ET from, eh, a VERY long time ago. Appears that the person who ran it has left up the web page with charts since then. Without searching the archives, how many can you guess: random or fake? http://users.rcn.com/jmcgraw/index.htm Disclosure: I got 10/10 first time round back then and again now re-doing it blind. Seemed even easier this time than I remember from before and took about 2 minutes. So I'd say 9/10 is the minimum expected correct response you should be looking for. If it helps, the contest was done prior to 2003. Will post answers over the weekend if no-one spoils it first by linking back... Q1
Since you asked, the implication is that if your technical analysis finds trading opportunities in truly random data then you're being fooled by randomness (great book btw) and if you think of yourself as a technical expert but can't tell actual from random data then again, you've been fooled by randomness. Not that recognizing real from fake data means your technical indicators work, but at least it shows either an academic or intuitive grasp of markets which would seem to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for reliably making money in said markets over a long period of time.
Old Results thread: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/random-chart-contest-results.11820/ Chart#1 Random Chart#2 Random Chart#3 Motorola (MOT) April 1993 to May 1994 Chart#4 3M, Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing (MMM) April 1992 to July 1993 Chart#5 Autodesk (ADSK) July 1990 to September 1991 Chart#6 Random Chart#7 Random Chart#8 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) February 1993 to June 1994 Chart#9 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ-30/DJIA) June 1984 to August 1985 Chart#10 Random The main things to look for or are the relationships between closes and next open. Also, volatility in real life tends to persist locally for a short while. Keeping those two bits in mind should get you 9/10 at least! Q1