This 2674 Calmar ratio for YTD, containing about 150 options trades on SPX and 77% being profitable, should be good. The question is if this trader is good or just lucky?
Identity of the trader would preclude an unbiased evaluation. My accountant has verified his trades, so, not assume any fraud.
Understood gerr33git. But how can I view the trades this trader made? Just looking at your post I have no idea how to see them. Thanks.
So you accountant got complete access to ALL of this trader's trades and records? That is pretty remarkable in and of itself.
Accountant verified brokerage trades without making any copies. Trades are not simple and vary according to volatility. Maximum drawdown was 7.5% and correlation to SPX is -0.33.
That is good, and I assume your accountant checked with brokerage, too - people have been known to fake them. I would not put too much weight in performance this year, although it is good. A lot of traders who were bears suffered the past few years, until this year. You might want to look at more than just YTD performance. And also, Calmar over a short time period is meaningless - it is supposed to be 36 months of returns, and max drawdown over that same period. I doubt the Calmar over the last 36 months is 2674.
Yes, 3 months is too short, but those 3 months contain all three phases: bull till 26th of January (+46% return), loss of -7.5% from that date to 1st of February, switching to different set of strategies resulting in +48% return for Feb (includes bear and chop). +18.5% for March so far. So questions still stands: skill or luck?
If we are talking about the performance of something that has only been tested from 1/1/18 through this last Friday I would say no way of knowing. Promising, but you need more testing time to verify whether this guy is onto something or this is just "luck". But I'm far from a pro.