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C2 strategies comments

  1. I would like to give my opinion on collective2 hottest strategies, discussing their approaches, good and bad about these strategies.

    I was a developer at collective2 trading equity, so I only comment on equity strategies.
     
  2. If you have insight into their approaches, it would be interesting to follow.
     
  3. Mr Money Tree:
    https://collective2.com/details/104368227

    This is a counter trend strategy.
    If you track its trade record, all its trades were placed at the opposite direction with market, that is, on an up day, it short; and on a down day, it buy.

    The developer bet on market trend change, so he is trying to catch overbought or oversold condition.
    We all know the words " follow trend", that is because the probability that trend continues is higher than trend changes. So counter trend strategies usually do not work well.
    However, a weak market trend situation is suitable for a counter trend strategy. Because when market trend is weak, you can often see market retreat from trend direction.
    When I was a developer at collective2, my approach was follow trend. This approach works well in a strong trend situation, but is bad in a weak trend situation.
    Now look at Mr Money Tree: when it performed good in Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov 2016, my strategy was bad in the same period. After Nov, 2016, He was doing bad while I turned round.
    So the fact is, we had 4 month weak trend market in Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, 2016 . That is probably due to uncertainty about election outcome, and that situation is not likely to continue.
    So Mr Money Tree's future performance depends on whether market has a weak trend for a relatively long time.
    From my experiences, that situation is rare.
    So I don't expect Mr Money Tree will do good in the futures.
     
  4. Can you do R Options?
     
  5. R Options:
    https://collective2.com/details/102125034

    The main approach for this strategy is to short OTM options.
    For most people , shorting OTM to take option premium is a market neutral strategy. That is, usually people don't try to time market, or predict market direction.
    But most people get 20%-40% annual profit from this strategy.
    R options make much more than most people do, because the developer has very good market timing ability. During market big down days , I see he simply stop shorting option. Sometimes he bought QQQ instead, the other times he simply stop trading for a few weeks.
    So his above average profit came from his excellent market timing ability.
    If he can keep up his market timing performance, and avoid making big mistake in money management, I see no reason why he can't do good in the future.
     
  6. What I don't get is, why he doesn't short calls, after all his timing is pretty good. Or he could go long puts or short QQQ. Maybe his account doesn't let him have naked calls...
     
  7. I too looked at some of the strategies there, not to follow, but simply to get a sense of the types of trades people put on, and especially to get a feel for stats, like win rate, average win, average loss, etc.

    One of the things I noticed was that so many of the profitable strategies had really bad drawdowns. Now this isn't your typical account DD where you might have 5 or 6 losers in a row, this was on 1 trade! So really, it was more like a really bad R:R ratio. Simply put, for many strategies that maybe had an average win of $100-$200, there were many cases where the trade could have been down by as much as $500 or $1000 at one point. This means there is hoping and praying going on for the trade to turn around.

    Now if this was an anomaly that was factored into the trading plan then fine, but often times, the losses were much smaller (why sometimes is a small loss taken while other times the loser is held?). So here you have trades with perhaps a high win rate for small profits (everyone loves to see 80% win rate), small to medium sized losses, and yet a good number of those small profit wins had the trade down by many multiples of the average win size.

    In my opinion, this is a recipe for disaster. If a person can show they've been doing this for over 5 years through various market conditions then fine, but generally, many of these strategies have only months of data, so we all know where that ends up.

    In the end, I didn't think there was a single day/swing trading strategy there that I would have thought had a real edge for the long term. More money is made from the monthly fees than the strategy. I'm not sure of the exact numbers or how they work, but I would bet that with only 20 or 30 followers at $100 per month, you're making more from that than any trading. And if the account blows up, it doesn't matter, your subscription fees have been collected, and you can just start all over again.

    Perhaps what its good for is an example of what not to do.
     

  8. Many times traders know the probability is high enough to avoid something, but not high enough to do something.
    For example, he may think the probability of a big correction is high enough to let him sideline, but not high enough to short call or buy put. Because when he sideline, if he predicts wrong, he doesn't lose anything.
     
  9. VIX DayTrader 1:
    https://collective2.com/details/98408819

    This strategy at some point was hottest strategy in Collective2.
    I think its subscribers at some point was more than 200. And the developer had stopped accepting subscribers because too many subscribers drained liquidity and caused bad fills. later he build another strategy. So the two strategies trade the same way, but slight different instruments:
    VIX DayTrader 1 trade VXX and XIV;
    VIX DayTrader 2 trade UVXY and SVXY.

    This is a daytrading strategy and I thought it has real edge and can sustain good performance in the future, at least it is the most likely strategy in C2 to sustain good performance.( I know where is his edge, but I won't disclose)

    But the latest 2 months it got bad performance .
    And I found the developer deviated from his original approach.
    The reason, to my best guess, could be that recently XIV at some occasions didn't trade syn with market. Many times market is up but XIV is down. That may confuse the developer and cause him to change his approach, trying to adjust to the changing situation.
    But I think only his original approach can stand up to the test of time.
    Besides, his exit method leaves some room to improve.
    I mean he always buy at open and sell at close. If he always hold position until near market close, he may get big hit on big down days. That means his exit strategy has some flaw.However, if he can keep his original method, his strategy still can return to good performance.

    So I think his future performance depends on whether he can return to his original approach.
    If not, I am not sure he can sustain his past performance.
    And if he can improve his exit strategy, he can significantly further improve his performance.
     
  10. Can you do CkNN Algo (he is a poster here) and ETF Capital Builder?
     
  11. CkNN Algo trades gold ETF, which I know little about.
     
  12. ETF Capital Builder hold position for several months, I saw one of his position held over 10 months. I am not familiar with this kind of trading style.
    He could base his trading on long term technicals, and it could work well. Just I never did long term trade, so I can't say how well is his trading.
    He has over one year good performance record with low DD , I incline to trust his performance.
     
  13. You need to go through each strategy on Collective 2 in order to give you some color of what is offered. You can look at their frequency of trading, drawdowns, etc. Systems are not an "asset class" in my opinion, and while there are general guides lines, I suggest to go through each one to find the ones that match your risk capital and risk tolerance (Past performance is not indicative of future results).
     
  14. I was reading their message board, specially the thread about following multiple systems. One guy said he followed 10+ systems and after 9 months his profits were break evenish. That tells everything about the hardness of finding good/safe systems. Sure diversification is good, but there will be always a few stinkers in the group, basically making the whole process not economical.

    Personally I wouldn't diversify into more than 4 systems, otherwise that is just too much commission. But one has to have at least 1 high flying system, if not you can just pick a boring and safe one and no diversification is needed....
     
  15. Russell Trending:
    https://collective2.com/details/107290550

    This strategy got very good performance in its first month, with very high win rate and very low drawdown.And it immediately attracted a lot of subscribers.
    At that point I was ready to write a review, because it was actually trading against trend, then all of a sudden I saw a trade that was actually follow market momentum. It got me puzzled, so I decided to give it more time.
    I later found the developer only did follow trend trade when his previous trade got stopped out, and he then immediately place a trade at the opposite direction with his first trade.So the second trade would be a follow trend trade.
    However, the majority of his trades were still counter trend trades.
    During the first month when he had good performance, Russell 2000 index was in a weak trend period, almost always had a retreat in an intraday trend. So he got very high winrate.
    But later that situation discontinued, and his later performance went down.
    So its future performance depends on whether there will be weak trend situation in the index , which I don't expect to often happen.So the chance is the strategy's performance will go down over time.
     
  16. Your stats, in my humble opinion, do not look that great.

    First if we look at your win rate, we get this.

    Avg Loss $518
    Avg Win $594
    # Winners 40
    # Losers 20
    % Winners 66.7%

    On the surface, this doesn't look too bad at all. But when we go into the individual trades, we see that your drawdowns are easily 3-6% on many trades before they turn around. I see one trade, this one, that is especially alarming:

    8/21/15 15:56 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P500 LONG 369 59.30 8/25 15:56 53.64 15.71% ($2,096)

    Here, its obvious it didn't come back to you so you could close it out at a lower loss and you took a 15% hit on your account in just one trade. In fact, your losing trades often have a much higher DD than what the trade ends up being closed at. What this tells me if that when your luck runs out, you are screwed.

    If you actually used stops and stuck to them, I imagine your profits would be drastically less. You may use this as a reason to not use stops, since it does come back to you often so why get out, but given that you let trades go against you much more than how much you let profits go in your favor, it might only be a matter of time until the blowup happens.

    I do often see this on C2. Win rates are good, but when you look at the DD for the losing trades, or the trades closed at BE, its starts to become obvious that there is a huge hole in the system.
     
  17. Hi,
    I am not so good at his trading style.
    He hold positions from a few days to a few months. That is something I am not familiar.
    However, I can guess what mechanism he uses.
    At first glance, he was not good at picking market tops and bottoms. He sold on 11/4/2016, which was right bottom. In past 3 year market down days, he also got big hit.
    He often sold position and bought back the next day, which seems meaningless to me.
    Maybe he got some cycle theory to decide which day to sell and which day to buy, but as far as I know, this doesn't help him anyway.
    What really helped him, was that during a market up trend, he tends to hold position for quite long time, but during market big down days, he frequently buy and sell, only hold position 1 or 2 days.That may cut quite a loss he otherwise could suffer. Because there were some big down days on which he didn't hold position.
    Most big down days come consecutively. If you check market daily chart, correction come with consecutive down days. So if you avoid holding position in some of down days, you outperform market.
     
  18. Thanks, that's a pretty good analysis actually. The strategy doesn't pick tops or bottoms, but it does use "some cycle theory" as part of its entry/exit selection. The strategy does hold longer for the occasional trend capture. The shorter trades of a few days or less are mean reversion trades which are its primary trade. You are also correct that the frequent sells in down periods cuts losses and helps outperform the market.

    The previous commenter is right that this end-of-day system doesn't use stops though it will close a trade that doesn't go as expected. The point he makes of the drawdowns it can take while holding a trade are overstated IMO. In particular I disagree it implies a blow up at some point in the future. It trades a broad index not an instrument with big surprises like individual stocks or forex. At a max leverage of 2 beta it's not a futures scalping system and at worst faces a daily move of 2x the S&P500 which is almost never "blow out" material, especially for a swing system which by its nature holds over a number of days. Indexes can make rare big moves but they aren't surprises and the system scales down against such volatility. Expected max drawdown is under 25% (estimated by backtest and monte carlo simulation) and most years it is significantly less.
     

  19. You are doing nice job here..!
    Can you evaluate this one
    https://collective2.com/details/106901765

    He is doing a lot of small trades..
     
  20. VIXTrader
    https://collective2.com/details/106901765:

    In recent months, there were a few strategies that performed very well with high return and low drawdown.Among which most outstanding are VIXTrader, 4QTiming FutNQ:
    https://collective2.com/details/105498679
    The characteristics of both strategies are: good performance and low drawdown since Nov,2016 post election rally, hold position for a few months and long only.

    There were quite a few VIX strategies in the past in C2 that were performing pretty well but they could not time market, which means when market was going up they got good performce, but when market was going down, they got big drawdown.
    Now are VIXTrader and 4QTiming FutNQ doing differently from past VIX strategies?
    Look at how market perform since post election: all induces kept going up, without much of a correction. In this situation, anyone longing XIV for a few months could get the same performance, and small drawdown.
    So we have not seen how these 2 strategies perform during big market down days.
    I am not saying they can not perform well in the future.
    I am saying these strategies have not be tested by big market correction.
    If there is no market correction in near future, they can continue performing well, even for months and years.

    PS, I saw you said it is doing a lot of small trades.
    It doesn't make much of a difference, as in a strong up trend market, it doesn't require good market timing to perform well.
     
  21. That's the bottom line. Once the market shifts gears expect some big blowouts from the over abundance of VIX systems on Collective2 right now.
     
  22. ... and bull only type systems...
     
  23. Hi bbpp,

    Thank you for all the excellent analysis. Would you please expand a little bit on how the VIX daytrader has deviated from his original strategy? I am his subscriber and has been losing money for quite some time. I noticed that many of his recent losses are coming long vxx under this huge contango environment. I just want to hear your opinion on some of the fundamental ideas before I decide whether I would like to unsubscribe from his system. Thank you.

     
  24. Hi,
    Usually XIV goes with the same direction as market.
    That means, when market goes up, XIV goes up. When market goes down, XIV goes down.
    But recently XIV often goes with opposite direction with market, when market goes down, XIV goes up.
    I guess this gave trouble for the developer, as he began to guess whether he should trade XIV or VXX, regardless of how market goes. As a result, his performance goes down.
    I would suggest he don't trade VXX for the time being as we are in a strong up trend and XIV is stronger than market.
    I would suggest if market goes down, he stop trading for the day, rather than trading VXX.
    I mean if market goes up, he trade XIV. If market goes down, he stop trading.
     
  25. Thank you for the explanation. My guess is that at the market open if the SPY dipped he intend to long VXX during the day otherwise long XIV. Is that roughly in the line?
     
  26. Generally speaking, it is.
    But there may be other factors to consider.
     
  27. I think his algo is kind of out-of-control now. Ridiculously high # of trade of long VXX recently.
     
  28. Alpha and Omega:
    https://collective2.com/details/110267102

    This is a martingale strategy.
    This strategy made big win in its first month.
    The strategy has no market timing ability.
    For every trade, it keeps adding to losing positions until reaching its intraday maximum leverage.
    When reaching its intraday maximum leverage, there is nothing the strategy can do( or willing to do) to prevent it from going broke, if market goes further down. Because it doesn't cut loss. So at that point it could do nothing except waiting market to come back. What the developer and its subscribers think market SHOULD come back ? Give me a reason why market should come back at that point. Whether market comes back, only depends on luck. You put your money on luck, you better go to casino.
    No matter how much money it makes, it eventually will go broke.
    If you go to a casino and bet 1,3,5,10,20,40,80,160 and so on, you will keep winning for a while, but once you hit a streak of bad luck, you will lose all your money.
    This strategy does the same thing, or I would say it is worse than martingale betting in casino. Because in casino the betting outcomes are random. But market trend occurs much more often than random.
    Once it is caught with a long trend against it, it goes broke.
    Recently market didn't have a long trend, that's why the strategy is still alive. But market long trend is not rare.
    A martingale strategy in trading is a suicide strategy.
     
  29. There are a constant stream of these types of systems at Collective2. They get subscribers more often than you would think as they can look good to unsophisticated traders until they fail. They see a 98% win rate with big returns and think it can't fail. Even when it's explained to people why they are bad they sometimes still join thinking they can get out before the collapse.
     
  30. I was also subscribed to VIX Day Trader. I think one of the problems is that he trades almost everyday. It would be better to just trade on the days where the direction is more certain. Also his system is not 100% algorithmic. Usually the algorithmic systems seem to do better in XIV / VXX trading.

    The ironic thing is, this is the developer who pushed for autotrade scaling limits as he had too many big subscribers and he was continually increasing his subscription prices from around $65 to the present $189. And now many of the subscribers have left.
     
  31. Why was it surprising? If demand is there, it is just obvious to raise prices.
     
  32. Yes, it makes sense to increase prices if there is more demand. At the same time people are more likely to quit a system during a long drawdown period if the fees are higher. So if you want long term subscribers it's better to keep a balanced approach in terms of fees. Also now with the autotrade scaling restrictions in place that this developer pushed for it doesn't make sense for big investors to subscribe as his model account is quite small. And for investor's with a small account the fees are too high!

    But this is just a side issue. More relevant is how a system that was performing really well for over year, with a large number of trades through varied market conditions suddenly stopped performing.
     
  33. Great thread bbpp.

    I'm wondering if you have any knowledge on a strategy known as "HFT VIX Scalper" that was the #1 strategy on c2 until it disappeared earlier this year. It had a Sharpe of over 10.

    Here is a screenshot:

    [​IMG]

    It was a futures strategy so I guess that is out of your area, but I thought I'd ask just in case you knew something about it or why it suddenly vanished.
     
  34. If I remember correctly, this strategy cheated and made false performance.
     
  35. Simplicity Trading:
    https://collective2.com/details/107448037

    At first glance,its performance is outstanding, good return on low DD.
    But when you check its entries, you will find it is a martingale strategy.
    Martingale strategy is always trading against trend,and adding to losing positions,therefore it is doomed. Just when it is hit with a market trend that is long enough to bring its death.
    The recent example is Alpha and Omega:
    https://collective2.com/details/110267102.
     
  36. Futures Cat:
    https://collective2.com/details/110937470

    Good strategy,high return, low DD, follow trend, tight stops.Diversified trading in equities and commodities.
    I have not seen any problem with this strategy,except that it has short time history.
     
  37. How do you think - will it survive longer than 2-3 months?
    His previous strategies lasted couple months only, then he was just stopping trading due to unclear reason.
     
  38. Dont they all?
     
  39. Most C2 good strategies developers had bad strategies before.
    If you did not see their bad strategies, it is because most developers just change their names and trade on new accounts.
    If there are strategies that never had bad ones, the bad ones happened before developers came to C2.Does that make a difference?
    No one born to trade well.

    Did you see any VIX strategies that started before 2016?
    It was not that before 2016 there were no VIX strategies. There were as many as now.
    It was because VIX strategies before 2016 all had big drawdown and smaller return.
    So developers discounted them and trade on new accounts and new names.
    As VIX strategies after 2016 have performed much better , due to changing market situation.
    Do you believe old VIX strategies developers just discounted their old VIX strategies and left C2? If you believe they still stay at C2, then they must be under new names.
    Most C2 current VIX strategies are run by old developers.And so are the other C2 strategies.
    If you are worried about this, you may need to unsubscribe from every C2 strategy.

    As for Futures Cat, you can see its high return came from low leverage.
    High flies that could not survive long time all have common characteristics:
    either they use big leverage, or they use martingale strategy.
    I see Futures Cat used neither of these methods.
    Some strategies could do well during a period of time like a few months, because it fit in certain market situation. When market situation change, their good performances would not last longer.This is especially true for equities.
    But Futures Cat trade in many instruments in equities and commodities.
    So that factor is unlikely to affect it.


     
  40. Strategies making false performance have one common characteristic:
    Their good performance would not last longer after they have subscribers.
    So if you want to determine which one had false performance, check out how it performed after it had subscribers.
    I mean, according to C2 rule,once a strategy has subscribers, the prices thereafter are based on the prices filled in subscribers' real money accounts.


     
  41. This is my first post here.
    I would like to subscribe to a volatility strategy in C2.
    After all your posts which strategy looks to you promising?
    Please look also here
    https://collective2.com/details/101429306
    https://collective2.com/details/106600099
    https://collective2.com/details/107294590

    Thanks!
     
  42. Of the 3 strategies you mentioned, I would avoid PCProtrader.
    There are two problems with this strategy:
    1. It did false performance. Its first 4months performance was significantly exaggerated taking advantage of C2's hole. The latest 3 months performance was his real performance.
    2. His method has inherent big risk that you can't see from his current performance.

    Of the 2 volatility strategies, I would prefer VIXTrader professioanl, since it has lower drawdown.And it performed better on 5/17/2017, when there was a big spike on VIX.
    You can see it sold long position on that day and immediately reversed to short, therefore partly recover its loss.So it did better in crisis time.
    Generally, I think all VIX strategies would do much worse if market experience high volatility situation.
    But VIXTrader professioanl could perform better than its peers.


     
  43. Thanks!
     
  44. If you compare VIX Trader professional to all volatility strategies in C2, do you still recommended on VIX Trader professional?
     
  45. There are 3 problems with Futures Cat:

    1. It trades too many instrument for no good reason. If you look up his previous systems, he was successful sticking to just one group (indeces) so I don't see what is the point in trying to trade 10 different things, dividing your attention unnecesserily. Also depending on your broker, more subscription fee is required for different datafeeds.

    2. His history is too short and I bet it won't make it over 4 months. We shall see, but I think most of the gains has been done already. (His most successful system to date)

    3. If you look at his older systems, there is at least 1 what he stopped trading without explanation although he was doing well? (Indeces Futures up 77% in 3 months, stopped in December) What the hell is that about? Why would he stop? Unless you get a good explanation, the guy simply just can not be trusted...(same with another system, Trading Eminies, abandoned after 2 months, 56% return)
     
  46. As I can tell you, trading many instruments is a big advantage, not a big disadvantage.

    As for what happened to his previous strategies, I don't know.
    But I think his current performance is more convincing than other factors.

     
  47. Most markets are correlated, so if you think of diversification, that argument is over rated. But sure, show me a good system trading more than 5 different instruments (not 5 stocks).
     
  48. Usually it is opposite - high leverage leads to high returns. Temporary returns sometimes.
    Anyway, this Futures Cat leverage is around 7-15 now, and it was around 20-30 in April. How that numbers can be considered as low?

    PS in my terms Leverage = Open Position Size / Traders Capital

    Maybe your Leverage term is different.

     
  49. https://collective2.com/details/104651752

     
  50. https://collective2.com/details/104973395

     
  51. High leverage is a relative measure, not an absolute measure.
    That means for different traders, there are different leverage suitable for each of them.
    The higher trading skill, the higher leverage a trader can take, because relatively speaking,higher skill trader can exit at right time, therefore can incur smaller loss than lower skill traders.And they also can make more profit, so to offset more loss than lower skill traders.
    So whether a leverage is suitable for a trader, look at his maximum drawdown.


     
  52. I would like to mention :
    Smart volatility Short:
    https://collective2.com/details/102427283
    And the same develop's strategy
    Smart volatility Long:
    https://collective2.com/details/102427198

    I check a lot of good performance volatility strategies, all got big hit on 5/17/2017, except Smart volatility Short and Smart volatility Long.
    How could he avoid that big hit? You can see his return in some recent months were lower than
    his average. So I guess he tried to reduce his position on some days that he thought were more risky, based on his data and analysis method, at the cost of lowering his return.

    So I think his 2 strategies along with VIX Trader professional, are currently 3 best volatility strategies at C2.
    Of the 3 strategies,which one is the best? It is a close call.
    And it seems to me VIX Trader professional is a little better than the other two.


     
  53. I am thinking like you that VIX Trader professional is the best choice in C2 at the moment...

    Thanks!
     
  54. I have more findings on "Simplicity Trading"

    1.It always long。This is quite different than a traditional martingale such as Alpha and Omega.
    In a bull market, always longing is actually going with general market trend.Although it still trades against short time trend, the risk is much lower than a traditional martingale.As current market has been shallow on pullback, his buying in dip incurred lower risk.

    2. He bought after market had already been down a couple of days.So the downward momentum had be released certain amount before his longing.

    3. He usually long at market close. This let him avoid big down day like 5/17/2017.

    So he was actually aware some of martingale's shortcomings and took some measures to improve it. These measures enabled him to perform well in current market situation.I would call his strategy"Improved martingale".
    If current market situation doesn't change,he could continue his current performance.

    But his strategy could not survive market situation like in 10/25/2016--11/4/2016, much less to say market situation in 2014 and 2015.






     
  55. Getting bored, so I looked up systems. Ultron VIX IRA Fund. Only 12 trades always long in 5 months, up 30% although May is slightly down. Looks like the course of the "6 months wonder" started to hit it early.

    I think this system also likes to martingale, judged by the number of shares used. We shall see how it performs when the market turns down...

    --------------------------------------

    I could repeat almost everything about 24K Longs, but with a different instrument. It is always long gold, martingaling, and although the 53% 5 months return sounds good, mostly it happened in February and March and since then a big nothing, 1-1.7%.
     
  56. Don't Worry might just be one of the best strategies out there, certainly the most laid back. 8 months of only profitable returns with 21 trades. This guy only trades 3 times a month!! This is how trading should be done and the rest of your time spent on the beach!!!

    Successfully avoiding the dreaded 6 months dying zone it actually recorded its best return this month with 1 trade only, by going long 5 ES for 5 days (37 points). This guy either has huge patience or a real job that let's him trade only around lunch break...(that was a joke, he usually trades at the open)

    So far he has been long only, but so was the market. I would like to see him going short too.

    Now the returns are not huge (except May's 10%), but very consistent and all the losers are small. I just hope I am not going to jinx him with this review...

    I only have 1 caveat. I would prefer if he could just stick to trading the ES (or any other index futures) instead of going long ETF shares. He would tie down much less money with probably better returns. Case in point:

    He was long SPDR shares since mid-October until May, using 30K capital returning 3300 profits. Had he just stayed long 1 ES during that period, the SPX went up 240 points or so, thus the return would have been 12K using 1 future's overnight margin as capital...
     
  57. Very similar to Don't Worry is 4QTiming FutNQ. In 7 months it had a 2 months (March, April) dip, but this month it has recovered with a 17% return. Only long trades, mostly NQ occasionally throwing in a completely unnecessary stock trade not making anything with those. Why oh why may I ask??? 18 trades in 7 months, this dude is just as relaxed as the Down't worry guy. He started the year with 58% and 29% that is just as good as it gets in C2 land...

    Actually he was technically short twice (long SQQQ) losing $600 in the futile process. Stay with what you know, my friend.

    I am really curious when these Trump good times inevitably come to an end, will these 2 systems survive without a large DD? Only time will tell...
     
  58. Thank you bbpp for your words about my strategy VIXTrader Professional in Collective2. I spent thousand of hours to develop my strategies and I am happy to find people who can value my work!
    Yesterday I posted a link to my development lab where you can see how I am developing Live my new strategy.

    https://forums.collective2.com/t/direct-link-to-watch-my-strategies-development-lab/10508

    or direct link to the lab
    www.screenleap.com/tradingmachine

    Thanks again bbpp!
     
  59. You are welcome.

    I just try to say things as they are.

    While you are glad I said good things about your strategy, some developers may hate me since I
    said bad things about their strategies.

    But I still want to speak out truth.

    We need a place to discuss good and bad things about strategies. That is in the interest of all developers and subscribers.
     
  60. Here is a fish of the "catch them early, while they are young":

    https://collective2.com/details/111488162

    Only been trading for a week, but very promising. The owner also trades the VIX, gold and stocks in separate systems, all are in the green. I would prefer if he would stick to 2-3 markets only...
     
  61. I was interested to come across your comments, as I am the developer of this strategy. It is not a martingale strategy as such, and I don't want to get into a long right/wrong discussion about that but did feel I should reply to your particular comment:

    "But his strategy could not survive market situation like in 10/25/2016--11/4/2016, much less to say market situation in 2014 and 2015."

    Based on current staking levels aiming for max drawdown of 30% this is what actually happened in my real trading account:

    25th Oct 2016 - 4th Nov 2016
    - we saw a max drop/exposure of 12% during that period, lowest on the 4th Nov
    - we ended up making 3% overall during the period, regaining the 12% and more on the 5th Nov

    2014-2015

    - 2014 we made 6.9% per month
    - 2015 we made 3.6% per month (taking into account the drawdown below)
    - but 2015 did see out biggest ever biggest exposure/drop of 30% on 6th November
    - we had fully recovered losses by the 8th March 2016

    Key points to support the above:
    - we have been LONG since May 2016 and will only trade in that direction as a result
    - before that we were SHORT from August 2015
    - we are long 60% of the time and short 40%
    - we look to make 5-6% per month on average and know that we have seen drawdown in extreme cases to 30%
     
  62. Well, you are averaging into long positions in an uptrend market. It is as good a Martin Gale as any. If you are not, how do you pick if it is 2 contracts or 20?

    Also, will you ever take short positions?
     
  63. As mentioned we take long or short based on the long term trend (as we calculate it), so we have been long since May 2016 but short before that from August 2015.

    I don't trade CFDs personally, see little point as being based in the UK spread betting has too many advantages in the tax and margin areas. As a result the number of contracts on C2 has changed as a) I realised the difference in margin requirements of CFDs and b) I set the staking to reflect a level of risk that the subscribers felt reasonable (as per previous post). You'll note that the number of contracts has smoothed out in more recent trades.

    It's worth pointing out that we have a number of rules in the strategy that means we don't just "open another position" if we're losing.... but sometimes we do if the algorithm still triggers it. That's why we do see largish drawdowns at time (worst I have seen in 15 years is 30%)... no surprises there... but the average return (5%/month) is the benefit you get for that acceptance in my book.
     
  64. 1.What was the performance between 2015 Sept and 2016 May? (Being short when two 10% rallies...)

    2. There was no question regarding CFDs.

    3. What is the point of using both ES and DJ Euro Stoxx 50, when they are closely correlated and sometimes you open positions at the same time in both?
     
  65. To try and help, the results for the period you mention were:

    Sep 2015 : 8.8%
    Oct 2015 : -19.7%
    Nov 2015 : -2.7%
    Dec 2015 : 9.6%
    Jan 2016 : -3.3%
    Feb 2016 : 8.4%
    Mar 2016 : 7.8%
    Apr 2016 : 1.3%
    May 2016 : 4.1%

    October 2015 was the largest end of month drawdown that we have seen in 15 years as it happens, but to that point every month in that year had seen a positive return and so we still made 36% (flat, no compounding) and then 50% (with only January as a losing month) in 2016.

    I mentioned CFDs simply to explain that when first using Collective2 we had little experience of their use as we have always used spread betting as our trading vehicle.

    Not sure what you mean on the ES and DJ Euro Stoxx 50 question because as far as I know we have always used DJ. We do trade the E-MINI S&P 500 as well if that's what you mean.
     
  66. Thanks for the performance record.

    Since they move in rather similar ways, why use both instead of just one of them? That is what I meant..
     
  67. 1.Use only C2 performance record to discuss your performance.
    Claimed past performance without C2 record is not convincing.

    2.As I said previously in this thread, since Nov,2016, market has been in an extremely low volatility and high growth period. Any one to buy&hold VIX stocks or index could achieve high return and low drawdown performance during this period.Therefore for those strategies starting from Nov,2016 with good performance, their good performance are not tested by bad market condition.
     
  68. I think the market topped and Simplicity has an open position 2K DD right now, we shall see if they can get out of it with a profit.

    In the main time I have found another nice system Antares SP500:

    https://collective2.com/details/98858556

    Very laid back system, averaging 3 trades per month, with 18 months track record, only 2 losing ones. It might averages in a few times, hard to tell without seeing the 3-4 contract trades, but it also takes short positions.
     
  69. This rally put them back to at least breakeven...
     
  70. It's a little hard to use C2 performance to answer a direct question about a period when we weren't on C2 - I provided my results, not sure what more I can do.

    Don't disagree, it has been a good few months since November, but then I've been trading this for a fair few years now and results have been good for me in all conditions, long and short.

    We make no promises, we are clear that we do see drawdown and maybe more drawdown than some would like at times, but we are open about that and feel that you make your own choices on scaling risk and reward. Personally I trade at a level where I accept 50% DD to increase returns, but we scale C2 down in an attempt to keep the risk level lower than that. But as I say, nobody is making promises either way.
     

  71. In the last months we faced some spikes in the volatility and I think that now, after the first 12 months of the strategy in C2, it could be a good timing for you to revisit VIXTrader Professional performance and tell me what you do think.
     
  72. Volatility is at the lowest value in all its history... I guess we have a different idea of what is a spike.
     
  73. Spike= VXX go up minimum 10% during the day..
     
  74. There is now an R Option Mini for smaller accounts, you still need the necessary margin to short naked options

     
  75. Fish is still alive and kicking after 7 months :) Hopefully you can judge the system better now since it has a decent sample size of trades
     
  76. Man, did I pick a good one! Of course the system only goes long in a bull market, so what are we expecting then ka-ching???
     
  77. I have more than a dozen systems on my watch list. Except one they are all heavily in the red for the 1 month time frame, some of them blown up. That tells a lot about the "everyone is a genius in a bull market" adage. So even a diversification among 5+ systems would have caused a portfolio loss.

    The only one nicely in the green (37% 30 days return) is 4QTiming FutNQ. Up 16% for February.
     
  78. Am still out there:) sure we had some losing trades because of choppy market few days before the market turned. But thats part of the game. and the max drawdown is still from last year - not to say that wont happen now - nobody knows

    https://collective2.com/details/111488162
     
  79. Why do you take only longs? Until this current market top that was a decent strategy but not anymore....

    What if we are going to have a bear market? Do you stay in cash?
     
  80. not exactly all the time.. if market falls in a straight line then yes. For typical bear markets the system will try to capture those intra-day rallies on the long side when conditions are right. Sure, we will have drawdown in a continuous bear market, but it will try to preserve capitial and patience will be heavily rewarded when market turns back again. point is no matter 2001/2002/2008 happens , market in general rises over time. I do personally short the market as well and i do get a higher return ,but usually it is at the expense of a higher drawdown (from my experience especially US market). As a result, I am not offering to the customers the short side. May be I will start another system that will be long-short. This year has been kind on short side so far though
     
  81. Pekelo, you should join C2...and put all those clowns to shame with your trading performance,

    Go all-in with options, and compound...and instantly be at the top of the leaderboard.
    You can share your trader success story on Reddit too, o_O and be a mini-celeb and legend,

    No more used, budget laptops from eBay...buy a High-end one with a GTX 1080 video card. VR games and porn and trading. You will be like Neo in the Matrix...Reborn.

    It's 2018...the Chinese New Year of the Dog, vanzandt...where ya at, playa