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Buying the dip...

  1. On big down days, everyone sees 'bad signs.'
     
  2. In this market? Pfff... friggin millenials don't know what a bear is. They wouldn't know a bad sign if it hit em in the head.
    ... Campbell Soup is at a 52 week low too.
    I mean maybe its a good sign... no one is fleeing to the safe-haven stocks. I mean they can be down a little, but they shouldn't be hitting 52 week lows. Especially Procter.
     
  3. At a glance the fundamentals look good. Ex-dividend was 2 weeks ago. The analyst don't care for PG. I'll wait a few more weeks, maybe sell otm put expiry late march.
    20180202Quote.jpg
     
  4. Ford is .20 cents above 52 week low. With a 5.62% annual dividend, I may go shopping...
     
  5. I always buy the dip. The question is where is the bottom of the dip ?
     
  6. Next to impossible to call bottom. I leg in by selling otm puts close to 52 week low on mega caps. Assignment is ok, they eventually reverse to mean.
     
  7. Agreed, the bottom hunt is the game. I at times have done the exact otm put strategy, I just make sure I do not commit all my reserves to it, as "Eventually" is sometimes a lot longer than I planned .
     
  8. I only short otm puts on stocks i already own and would like to buy more at 52 week low.
     
  9. This is not a dip.....markets are still up for 2018....show me the Dow under 20,000, that's a dip!!!
     
  10. I sold my PG position this morning. Hated it do it, but it broke long-term support and if this market goes lower (which I think it will), then it's really hard for any company other than perhaps Amazon to resist a strong downtrend. Still left the short calls on, but the closest strike is 88 and expiring next week. In any case, I worry about generic store brands eating into PG's margins. What was their last innovation? Tide pods?
     
  11. What is driving the dip? A typical correction will right itself. The economy seems like it's firing off all cylinders, unemployment is down, interest rates are low. Corporate america seems to be fine, for now ...
     
  12. Haven't done my weekly TA yet but as the US indices remain closed above the 50EMA, likely I will be putting buy orders in above today's highs.
     
  13. That is not buying the dip. Buying the dip is buying NOW.
     
  14. Based on the monthly/weekly charts and closing below the last 2 weeks closes, I think it will go down some more, lows of Nov 2016 of 2023 in ES should receive good support. If you look at the sped of price action or more like sharp angling going up, it was just a matter of time. Crude Oil going up so much last few months and U.S. Dollar dipping below 90 added to the fun. I am still long stocks but hedged equal value and long term short Indexes, been shorting long time and who knows if this was the end. But handing out huge tax cut to corps, am thinking this more of a further dip and maybe 50% pullback to 2450?
     
  15. It will be lower on Monday, then rally a bit and then consolidate for the next few weeks. Record highs in a couple of months.
     
  16. There's a lot of distance between here and 2023. That would be more than a 25% correction. I think it goes lower. Seems that this is about the bond market and rising interest rates. How is the Fed going to start unloading their balance sheet into a weakening market facing rising interest rates and a weakening dollar driven by continued budget deficits for at least the next decade? With higher interest rates, what will be the interest paid on that debt (as a percentage of tax revenue) going forward?
     
  17. There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip. :)
     
  18. you buy the dip, I will get the chips & beer.
     
  19. lol, apropos for this weekend. Good guacamole on tap.

    (Umm, go Pats. (Sorry I have to say that. If I do not, I will get lynched by all these crazy New Englanders.))
     
  20. Interest rates been going up, but reports came out on inflation? Crude oil yes and food no. From highs to 2023÷2=What? But it all guessing.
     
  21. Extremely likely. I'll be looking long Mon.
     

  22. I agree.
     
  23. It's a cliche, but if you can call the reversal, that means you can call bottom. Then you will have the goose that laid the golden egg, part the sea, and walk on water. May the force be with you, lol
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/buy-the-dips.asp
     
  24. Looking at the chart, I think maybe we go back and revisit where we started this year which was only 1 month ago. Somewhere under 2600 on the S&P. I think there's pretty decent support there because at that time, tax cuts were not completely priced in. I think it all depends on what happens with the dollar and yield on long term treasuries.
     
  25. Dollar going to continue to drop so we can compete tad better against countries that pay a bowl of rice for the day, we need to have 100% tax paid at the registry for any foreign made goods, only way to get anything changed is force consumers to pay more for goods made out of the USA. Except for Amazon, Walmart don't have much competition and they only seek whatever is cheapest unlike the creator Sam Walton who pushed for "Buying American Goods". http://www.nytimes.com/1985/04/10/business/wal-mart-s-buy-american.html
    And after he died, America died in a way as children took over and bought mainly from far east.

    As far as interest rates peaked out June 2012 and recent rally in June 2016 was a rally to sell. Using last 9 year cycle and seeking 75% of the range puts it at 117-12, so where I be a buyer and reverse out of shorts. As far as Indexes or ES, last year rocket climb never a good chart pattern and seen it coming back to at least 1928 over time. The 200sma on dailies is at 2531, I will continue to hold long stocks but hedged for this downside losses, want to continue to receive dividends and dance options around positions.
     
  26. The average voter just wants cheap stuff. They don't care about trade imbalance and they think it's perfectly patriotic that they get to enjoy a much higher quality of life vs. someone else in another country willing to do the same job for a bowl of rice. I agree 100% with everything that you said, but you're asking for a cultural change which won't happen until people are forced to change...it won't be a voluntary change. Could have been voluntary in the past, but the culture has changed. Until then, we can take the easy path of simply continuing to run up the trade deficit and take on more debt. Long term as well as medium and short term, metals and shorting TLT and IYR looks attractive here. To address the debt and trade issues, long term, dollar devaluation relative to other currencies looks like the path of least resistance and therefore the path that politicians will choose.
     
  27. One would have to go back to 1950s for people to make changes on a volunteer basis but hardly anyone trusts the government much, I don't. So forcing at register a foreign tax as we want equality since there is none on China side. If we completely said one day, we will inspect every container by the box, ships be the docks for years to get unloaded, that might change China's outlook on helping more with North Korea or buying more goods from USA. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar is two edge sword as it makes our real estate more appealing to foreigners. And I agree with you, people won't change unless it costs them more money.

    Am long term short Gold, financials, US Dollar, indexes and long silver, coffee, cotton, most currencies. Stocks almost always(dividends and covered calls) long but hedging downside.
    You and I think alike, shh the attackers will come, LOL
     
  28. If it gaps down big, push the BUY button and close your eyes...LOL!
     
  29. Hmmm. I really don't think Asian markets are going to like Friday's USA action AT ALL, even though Asia closed down on their Friday close.
     
  30. I bought the dip.

    Why? Nothing fundamentally different in the market. Only change was small change in interest rates.

    The Trump tax cut is Big. It may lead to much higher deficits in the future but not now.

    I started another thread asking for data support but best I could tell decline was orderly with no abnormal volume trades. Someone/s big was selling but no one is sure who. On the other side someone big was buying. Me.

    At the heart of is that almost everyone involved with big volume benefits from higher stock prices. Everyone is getting a % of a big number. Plenty for everyone.

    Only thing that would really tank the market is an exogenous shock.

    I am calling for at least a +200 on the Dow on Monday.

    Monday will be fun.
     
  31. 200, that's it? Party pooper!
     
  32. Overnight - What do you want. I am actually looking for +400 but I am conservative.

    Truth - I have no support for any number. If anyone does please post for all.

    Just saying that I thought the Friday decline was overdone. It I get 200 I will be happy. If I get more then Wow!!
     
  33. This is the kind of decline I have been looking for to test my hedge strategy. Unfortunatley I went long too deep for my risk appetite on the current contract months and didn't hedge. My instincts are telling me to go long here, and considering the percentage drop it could only be done on Sep contracts at this point for enough recovery to offset the March losses I'll most likely incur. I am still not sure yet on what to do.
     
  34. March?? Sept.??

    I am an options trader. I am doing this up coming week. Why? Vol and bid/ask spread. Have no idea on how to do +3 months out.
     
  35. Agree
     
  36. Looks like tomorrow will be green. ES opened down 15 points, but at the time of this writing, it's only down 5 points now. I would have thought ES would still be down 15 points. The thing about momentum to the downside is that it requires continuous progress. A market can continue grinding higher after days or weeks of no progress, but to go continue going down, the market cannot pause for long. Otherwise, the dip buyers come in and vix drops like a rock.
     
  37. Correct. In addition, we remain in an uptrend.
     
  38. time to sell otm put and buy otm calls on favorit stocks ?
     
  39. %%
    Exactly, buy on tech stock dips. As far as buy DIA, on dips go for it , even though DIA is weakestt of 3, DIA, SPY, QQQ. Is tues turn around for DIA, dont know; i dont really watch DIA like SPY or QQQ:D:cool:
     
  40. When do we all determine we have enough stuff? Let's stop buying stuff we don't need, save our money for a rainy day. I wonder what would happen to china then. We should also blame corp america for our/west demise. They are manufacturing wherever is cheapest, forget the people, while lining their pockets.
     
  41. Turns out it was.
     
  42. As a short answer: instant gratification. People think short term because one day we'll all be dead anyway and it takes discipline and will power to hold back on unnecessary purchases in exchange for a greater return on investments later. That cultural change won't happen until after the next great depression.
     
  43. I'm guessing you know how to read a chart
     
  44. %%
    Your guess could be as good as mine,LOL. QQQ could easily make new highs this year;but 10-25%CORRECTions can/could happen more than in 2017. DIA ran up so far + fast in JAN; it could /can turn into a bear market. Even if they kick downTrending GE out of that index [ DIA],NOT a prediction.
    NED Davis...... internet ad just noted 10% corrections happens about once a year.:cool:
     
  45. I'm legging in, selling otm puts on my favs. If i get assigned, it'll be beyond 52 week lows...