Buy and Hold SP500 Not A Good Idea Afterall....

Discussion in 'Trading' started by libertad, Feb 21, 2009.

  1. Exactly right Mokwit....and lots of ¨pseudo management¨....

    ie barely veering away from indices as well....

    which any moron could do....but was guaranteed never to veer much away from the indices.....so more clients would stick around and pay fees....
     
    #31     Mar 3, 2009
  2. mynd66

    mynd66


    Thanks Libertad for the insight. I definitey agree that buy and hold is a lost cause. What was not clear to me was how the past ten years was compared to 1929-39. I was actually reading some material on the great depression and not only was the dow down almost 90% from 29-33 but the economic aftermath was much worse than what is going on now. Why did they compare two different ten year time frames 29-39, 99-09 as the latter had two bubbles and both eras were different in many ways? But the magnitude of the dow's drop in those four years of 29-33 was the worst we've seen in real terms (correct me if I am wrong). Who knows we may be headed there. But it doesn't seem we are even close to that yet as some insist as in that article. For some reason they take 1929-39 and rightfully indicate that the dow was down 50% off its highs, but 1939 was 6 years after the bottom hit. We may be -50% now but at no point in time in the past ten years were we off 90% from the highs as was the case back then. I'm just trying to put this in perspective while learning a bit too.
     
    #32     Mar 4, 2009
  3. #33     Mar 5, 2009
  4. #34     Mar 10, 2009
  5. buy & hold is always a good idea (except for france, japan, or germany)
     
    #35     Mar 10, 2009
  6. yep it's a wonderful idea. :mad:
     
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    #36     Mar 10, 2009
  7. #37     Mar 10, 2009
  8. #38     Mar 10, 2009
  9. Random.Capital




    For those looking at really long term historical real returns, it ain't a pretty picture.

    ...........................................................................................


    Good chart....

    Also keep in mind that the composition of the stocks in the indices changed as well....

    Also many stocks are not accounted for at all....

    In terms of the asset class "stocks"....just think of "all stocks" and the "value of all stocks" that simply vaporized....

    If this data were available....This would be very telling....

    The chart above would account for the "strongest stocks" that existed that were accounted for "only in the indices at the moment".....

    The actual case for "buy and hold" would be much weaker....
     
    #39     Mar 10, 2009
  10. Gyles

    Gyles

    Derrick1983, you can trade ETF with back tested (both long and short) strategies.
     
    #40     Mar 11, 2009