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Bottom in?

  1. Who thinks we're at the bottom and why? Or not?

    Looking for timing to get back in.
     
  2. I think the downturn is just starting as it wasn't just a one bar mishap (flash crash). Could be the tax cuts were already priced in before the last up leg. At best it's going to be ranging.
     
  3. I'd like to see SPX 200ma tested @ 2530-ish during RTH for a possible "bottom is in" play. If that were to happen, we'd have a "2x/matched low with the ES.. and perhaps a "mini-'87 crash" price formation to play.
     
  4. I agree. Look for multiple tests of a major support level before getting long again. I have been standing aside on both the long and short side this whole week.
     
  5. In the next few days (or could be today) we will touch 2530 SPX and the real bounce will happen from the lower BB on the SPX weekly chart, currently around 2450. That can take a couple of weeks, no hurry...
     
  6. It's too hilarious when people start asking where the bottom is ...cnbc has been running there pathetic markets in turmoil segment the last few days...what amazes me is the markets have run up non stop for 9 years... nearly a damn decade and now the markets turn down for literally a single week and everyone wants to know where the bottom is...come onnnnnnnn ....at least bring in the bear and a 20+ correction so everyone can get an actual taste of it... especially all these new investors who believe stocks only go one way ...don't be surprised by a steeper drop of another 20-30%.....markets need a wake call from the fantasy make believe land they have been in for the last decade....but no worries the fed will be coming to the rescue like they always do!!
     
  7. Oops. I posted this in cryptocurrencies, so I thought it would be more obvious!
    I meant is the bottom in for Cryptos? :confused:
     
  8. NYSETRINFeb09nnCapture.PNG Lots of great comments in this thread thus far.
    But I called a bottom when I thought "we might go down as far as 2700 on Monday"....
    Well, yah, Tom, we done and did that.

    Then I thought, "Well! If we taste 2600, hit the "Buy!" button."
    Done that. Shorted the t-shirt.

    Scat -- I think we hit 2525 in the ES. But I think the 200 is moving up so fast..... It seems a very likely "Buy!" trigger.

    Long story short? I always go with fundamentals. And the boring ol' p/e.
    ("Oh you are Old School...!")
    Yes I am. Yes I am. :rolleyes:

    And while I'd like to see a 16 p/e (ttm), I'd be a buyer now -- dollar-cost averaged and all that, even. I certainly wouldn't sell -- barring unforeseeable Black Swans, we'll be back here in (long run) "no time at all."

    (Ask yourself two questions:
    How are things going, in the U.S., and around the world, right now?
    {"Swimmingly!"}
    Would you be surprised to see the SPX climb 100pts *today*?
    {"No-ooooo."}

    Interest rates matter. But so do fundamentals that are even *more* foundational than interest rates (why bother to borrow, unless you can make/sell and make money?).

    I'm a buyer at 2580.
    I would NOT flip if we breached 2500 in the next week, though -- I'd buy more.

    Lastly: The NYSE TRIN has been in a very controlled, very reasonable range these last few days -- NOT something that screams "Sell at any price!!!" by any means. That size agenda is very hard to hide -- what the TRIN shows to me is calm and calculated.:cool:
     
  9. Screw it, man! Go with whatchu got! :D
     
  10. You can ask the mods to move it to Trading. As for BTC, I think we will see 3K this year...
     
  11. I kind of think BTC will drop further, but it's hard to say. I see a delinking of alt-coins from Bitcoin - which has already happened somewhat - BTC's huge move in Dec was prior to alt-coins and in fact, the big guy fell down while the ants crawled all up him.

    I see alt-coins going back up - resumption of primary trend, but may fall further still.
     
  12. The VIX is still north of 30. For anything long, I want to see below 20.
     
  13. Damn it, Jim. I'm a crypto-trader, not a quant!
     
  14. at the time when the market goes down - short, do not wait to back in long
     
  15. I am out. Cryptos scare the hell out of me and I have idea where the bottom is.
     
  16. My current ES range is 2580-2428
     
  17. This thread is hilariously schizophrenetic.

    Anybody trading the SPY.BTC cross?
     
  18. Bottom is now in
     
  19. I doubt this is the bottom with the amount of monthly volume i'm seeing and it's only 9 days into the month.

    There's a high probability you'll see S&P reach at least 2200-2400
     

  20. Easy$3k this year, all those new miners mining bitcoins will give up after they realize the cost to mine a bitcoin costs more than the bitcoin itself...

    Haaaaaaaaaa
    :D:D:D:D
     


  21. Agree...I think it trades even lower.....all the new money hoping for 26,500+ isn't coming anytime soon...the push and pull with the extreme volatility is going to have most wanting out of this market... complacency is gone for now.....won't be back for a long time...
     
  22. Seems EOD technical traders are just guessing here given limited price information. However, today was a successful test of a low from a couple days ago in the ES. Seems to be a range taking shape on an hourly and daily chart. I am certainly just guessing here and will pass.
     
  23. Emerging markets are more sensitive to US dollar cost and have retraced , to support, all of the recent ignored surge in US rates. EDC got juice for the EOD punter here and a level to lean on.
    No one has mentioned emerging markets here where in 2013 you would have thought a 1998 type currency crisis, capital flight, shit storm would occur due to taper. Reality was deflation and lower US rates ruled in 2014. Not this time though....inflaton is likely and fed does not seem so "dovey" to equities and this administrations fiscal policies. This is my theme and look mostly for new major inputs.
     

  24. Looking at nq daily, if I was to trade this chart pattern on the 1 min, these 2 hammer bars are classic bull traps that occur in high volatility. Look for them to either fail immediately or over a period of 3 days. So more down move to go
     
  25. Looks to me like we are bottoming in both Gold, NQ (or the individual stocks overal for that matter) and Euro on the 4H charts. Too much correlcation to be an incident. The stock market correction was just that: a correction of a few procents, nothing more. So gold should resume it's longer trend upwards.
    I am a buyer on monday of gold, dgxj (junior gold miners index etf; I am extremely bullish on gold for the longer term), Alibaba and IBM. All for the longer term. Also will be buying RSX since that one is going to profit of the stronger economic revival since it's very commodity related and PE wise or CAPE ratio wise looks still cheap.
    In BTC the bottom is not in: I expect two or three more weeks of down. But we are getting near ...
     
  26. A test of the 40 month moving average (monthly candle time frame), still would not indicate a Bear Market unless the SPX has a monthly closing candle below the 40mma.
    In the decades that I have been using this chart to move 401k's out of stock indexes when there's a monthly close below the 40mma, and back into stock indexes when the index price has a monthly close back above the 40mma, it hasn't been wrong yet.
    [​IMG]
     
  27. Jeff, very interesting, thanks for posting that! Never heard of a 40 month moving average - is that a common tool or just just kinda found that out on your own? Just curious. Thanks!
     
  28. Its interesting how all you guys are technicians, but have fundamental disagreements about the market direction. I guess that just proves its more of an art than a science! :)
     
  29. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Long before I started trading options, I was just a normal family guy with a job and a 401k.
    I always had a concern about why my 401k was up and down. An older friend of mine subscribed to a monthly publication (started in 1981) called Option Advisor by Bernie Schaeffer.
    One day I expressed concern to my older friend about my declining 401k, so he started giving me his older paper copies of his monthly publication. He told me to ignore the option trades in the newsletter (because in the 1980's I didn't even know what options were), but instead just read the part about the general market outlook, market timing and the occassional chart inside.
    The author used the 40 month moving average to denote the difference between the bull and the bear. It seemed reasonable, so I started following it and have ever since.
     
  30. You don't actually know anything about how BTC mining works, do you? :)
     
  31. BOTTOM IN ?

    Some new complex english?
     

  32. Could care less about fairy tale fantasy unicorn make believe coins that anyone can create out of thin air....
     
  33. generous random meme accretion process.