https://www.biospace.com/article/in...biogen-s-alzheimer-s-data-reveal-on-thursday/ I looked at the data published so far, seemed comparable to or better than Aricept so I think their Alzheimer's study to be published tomorrow will be encouraging and FDA approval likely. I bought some options this morning when the market opened.
Hope you make a fortune....I am always tempted to get involved in these situations but the implied vol usually scares me away.
I read their published data on aducanumab up through Oct. Not earthshaking but positive. In view of all the failures on Alzheimer's drug trials over the past two decades, the FDA might give them a pass.
Thank you, I am already profitable. Should I get out and call it a day, or keep it? If you look at BIIB IV, for DTE > ~30 the IV is actually quite stable for the past few trading days => mostly it is the underlying that affects option prices.
By the way that one was impossible to predict or envision unless you have insider information. This time the probability and outlook can be assessed based on past published data and projection into the future.
You should be able to track it using your broker's platform. Am I going to show you my trades, short answer is no. I posted this thread mainly as food for thought. From my observation playing one time event, (example: recent CELG/BMY merger) for short DTE and ~ATM option, IV drops after the event, coupled with time decay the outcome is already priced into the option. If you don't believe me, take a look at BIIB ATM options expiring 12-13 (@destriero's example). On 12-2-19: strike $292.5 ATM call @$11.5 mid. Today at close strike $292.5 now ITM call @$10.05 mid. You actually lost money. I did not trade the option I mentioned above.