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# Beating Larry Williams record II

1. DT-Waw:

you should be commended for bringing this old thread back to life. This thread is so old that I got an e-mail notification of another post. I stopped the e-mail enabling probably around April, 2002...lol...

I remember January, 2003 was the launch date. Seems everyone forget Sabena's mad claims...

btw still laughing at the Darkhorse comment "I will let an aids infested gorilla...." LOL

2. Larry Williams made 100x his capital in a year (\$10,000 to \$1million)...

Well all the ES daytraders who claim they are making 4 points per contract per day should have no trouble doing what Larry did, in around 2 years...

Let's take an ES trader who uses \$5000 per contract and who trades 250 days a year... so, like Larry, this trader is gonna start with \$10,000... this equates to 2 contracts of ES when taking the \$5000 per contract.... if the margin required is \$2000 per contract, this trader is funding his account by a factor of 2.5x the margin (this is slightly more aggressive than the performance statistics used on futurestruth, which calculates returns based on 3 times margin)... our 4pt a day trader will generate \$50k per contract in profits (the point value on ES is \$50)... so the trader will have a total of \$55k per contract at the end of the year in his account...this is a total of \$110,000 for the 2 contracts, and assumes the trader was trading just 2 contracts throughout his first year...

Next year, our 4 point a day trader decides to scale up to 22 contracts (cos he is still using \$5000 per contract), and before the year is up he will be a millionaire (indeed, had he scaled up for every \$5k in profits -- rather than at the beginning of the new year -- he would be a millionaire well before the 2nd year is up)...

So, come on, all you 4pt a day, 2 contract traders... y'all gonna be worth \$1million in under 2 years!! Just get together your \$10,000 and trade your 2 contracts... up, up and away!!

Crappy traders, like myself, who have a long-run daily average around a shitty 1-1.5pt a day will have to content ourselves with more modest returns... but we're right behind ya, you 4 point a day ET'ers!!...

3. If one has a true intraday edge that can be applied consistently, with daytrading leverage for futures being what it is, triple digit monthly returns are well within reach for smaller sized (5-figure)accounts. It's when you start to get buy signals at 12:45 on an August Friday and you have to buy a couple hundred NQs that things tend to get a bit sticky

4. Now and again, perhaps (e.g. during some of the bubble months)... but as a long-run average (i.e. through all market cycles over the years you are trading), no way...

5. That's the thing, with that kind of performance your account doesn't stay 5-figures for very long; however, I think it's very possible to continually turn say 20k into 40k month after month on intraday futures trading, you don't need anything near a bubble to achieve that.

6. Every now and then, yea. "Consistently", no way.

7. He traded with a tad bigger leverage. With 10k he was trading 1 SP when it was 500xSPX. Like 10 ES today albeit about a third the price value. Also he didn't wait till year end to begin pyramiding to bigger size. Hell Candle, I don't think he waited till day end to jack it up a notch. The point being that using similar money management LOL techniques as Williams i.e. no fear of risk of ruin, one could theoretically duplicate his success on way less than an average of 4 ES pts a day.

8. You guys seem to be forgetting our newest trading superstar the Scientist... If Sabena cannot do it, I bet (1 YM tick of monetary value) that the Scientist can...

9. Precisely... our very many multipoint per day ET superstar traders should have no problems in emulating Larry Williams record... like you imply, frequent compounding of size and an average of significantly under 4pts can do it...

Mere mortal crappy traders such as myself, however, who are so shit that we only average 1pt to 1.5pt a day, haven't a chance in hell of repeating Larry's record.... I will leave such a challenge to the 30% of us here (according to one ET poll) who are scoring a multipoint long run average per contract per day...

Its great to be surrounded by some of the best traders in the world... ET is the place where they all seem to be at...

Enough for now... I gotta work on a way to boost my long run average of a tad over 1pt per contract per day... apparently, I am one of the crappiest traders here, cos my average is so low

I think I am gonna quit trading... I've been at this for several years, and all I can muster up is a pathetic long run average... I need to find out the secret strategies of all those superstars here who will soon enough (even with conservative compounding and margining assumptions) be at billionaire status...

10. Sabena, where are you? You used to hang around all over this thread. We all miss you here.

Luckily I just stumbled on your most recent post:

Q

Thread: Can you get "it" back?

sabena
Senior Member

Registered: Aug 1999
Posts: 421
07-25-03 10:20 AM

Since my father passed away, I have lost my drive

completely.

A big reason to break Larry Williams record was probably

to show my father that I was good in trading; a profession

that was not taken seriously by an academic like my father.

Anyway, to all of you, who still have their parents ; Tell

them that you love them and show it while they are still

alive.

I only had the courage to say it when he was under the

morfine...

When somebody who is precious to you, passes away,

you realize how worthless money is in comparison.

Time heals the wounds......they say......

UQ

12. I've known a few people who do that with scary regularity, they have an edge which they exploit almost every day -- the leverage accomplishes the rest (one guy trades 1 NQ contract/1500 capital). Each month they remove the profits and start over, so they stay small and don't compound but enjoy a steady income while limiting overall risk.

If one has a true edge and solid risk management, one can trade with full leverage w/o fear, and it's all about the leverage in this case.

13. Sarcasm aside -- is that 1pt/contract/day before or after commissions? If it's net after commissions, that works out to about 2.5% daily or 63% gain monthly using 2k equity/es contract -- not bad!. If it's before commissions, then 1/pt day doesn't really mean much until you count how many trades/day.

A trader who needs to avg 10 round trips/day to net 1 pt is barely past break even; someone who can net 1pt/day on 2 or 3 trades a month is indeed a superstar

14. According to Larry Williams (in Long Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading), :

"It was so good that I was kicked out of one trading contest because the promoter could not believe the results were accomplished without cheating."

"But, what would you expect, when no one to my knowledge, had returned in that type of performance ever before in the history of trading. To make matters 'worst', I did it more than once.".

:eek:

15. Hey,

I always wondered if this thread was a scam or not. OK I myself said that I prepare to challenge the best traders including Larry William because I know that I have an outstanding edge based on my model but if I hadn't I wouldn't dare to do such a challenge, so what edge had Sabena ?

16. It seems one of Sabena's edge would be (s)he is able to predict (about 9 months in advance) that the market, starting from Jan 2003, could provide an opportunity of making a 2% profits per day continuously for almost 250 days.

17. What is your take on the minimum data a guy might supply to articulate his performance sufficiently. Mostly everyone is falling short either out of not understanding what it takes to compare or because they need to not explain their performance for some limiting reason that makes it kinda poor.

I know you are pressing candle for a bunch of missing stuff, but that aside, is there a cogent set of data? Or has this been covered long ago and everyone is by passing the standard here in ET.

18. Bubba7,

You really hit the nail on the head. I have read some of your lengthy contributions whenever I had nothing better to do. I must say that I never saw the light though. I simply lacked the motivation to study your materials more thoroughly telling myself: "where is the minimum data bubba7 might supply to articulate his performance sufficiently?" Is it only me who seems to have some problems with the bubba7's, the jack hershey's and other masters?

19. You're not alone when it comes to understanding bubba aka hershey.
I guess one bottle of vodka would help

20. For equities I trade a 6 to 8 day cycle. My profit per cycle is 10% or better. I succeed on 7 out of 8 cycles. I do about 50 cycles every three years. I have a cap on shares in one money stream of 100,000 shares.

I was asking it this amount of data was suficient to describe an approach. I asked illiquid because you covered the bases it looked like.

You should not expect to feel it's worth it to read anything I post. Most people do not. I happen to think that for most people what I post is way out of line for them. It probably works out that there are hundreds of people posting their methods here. It doesn't look like any of those people want others to adopt what they do either.

I learn a lot here. As I get to know and understand what other people do, I get a picture of how they relate to what is going on here.

That's why I asked the question.

21. It appears you trade about 17 cycles a year, of which 15 cycles are winning trades, of that the total return is more than 150% a year. Very impressive results!

But why do you trade only about 130 days a year and let the remaining 120 days idle ? Is it because no other tradable equities that fit your setups (long/shert) in your watchlist? Your concise feedback would be appreciated .

22. I would also like to publicly post my goal of 1,000,000,000% return via Bright. Although I am paying almost 30% more per share commission, I am confident that after attending bootcamp, I will make my rent this month. After I do find something that works I will wait until they exploit and sell my strategy to any other idiot willing to listen. If they or anyone sells something and it worked, why would they sink their own ship and ruin their edge??????

23. Because they're philanthropic and want to share?

24. The simplest way to get comparative results is to just take % gains after commissions over a given period of time, with the caveat that returns on a five-figured account cannot be compared with returns on say a 7-figure account, especially on a shorter-term time frame.

But the reason that there seems to be a wide range of opinions of whether 1pt/day/contract is a "poor", "avg" or "superb" return is due to the fact that it is a meaningless stat unless one considers the # of trades/day.

If we just say that the avg commission for a round trip/emini contract is \$5, then an avg of 7 trades per day means that the 1pt/day (\$50/contract) goes down to .3pt/day (\$15/contract); an avg of 20 round trips/day makes that gain of 1pt/day into a loss of -1pt/day/contract etc - a huge difference obviously.

A more meaningful stat would simply be the pt gain/contract/trade, not per day. (Sorry I'm dead tired and hope what I've written is coherent).

25. Do you actually mean points/contract/trade/day?

26. Hi Sabena, spot-on.

I've been working on how to measure and improve performance. The travel range approach you mentioned above has been in my mind for long-time. But there are still some questions.

How can we effectively/ precisely measure the daily travel range, say based on points or % (of yesterday's market)?

What is the average (or the range of ) travel range (daily) of SP500/ES according to your statistics so far?

Whether it would be easier or harder to capture the travel range in a much volatility day based on your trading system?

Do you have a target capture % in mind when planning to beat Williams' records?

What would be your idea of the maximun attainable capture % we can see in the future?

Your feedback would be highly appreciated.

27. There are always tradeable equities that stem from my searches weekly and daily assessments. I also have a tenured list that, technically, are extremely repeatable. I trade many accounts on POA in parallel.

I do trade more frequently than 1/2 the time available as well when I am in the market. But I do not trade when I am doing other things like travel, exploration, on assignment or on visits, primarily. I do not hesitate to go to cash when I plan to be away. And to ramp up again takes a few days. A three year period takes these ripples out.

28. People are actually posting messages to this Sabena freak -- and it doesn't look like he's even posted since January (7 months ago:eek:

funny stuff!

29. Thanks for responding. I am working on two items for my journal:

1. A chart book using the attached excel format and 2. an "edge" matrix to format an excel spread sheet on all the edges I have run into in the last 30 years or so. I am seeking to get the right columns in the spread sheets.

Several people in this thread are oriented to this stuff in a very constructive manner.

I think that it will be possible with a lot of data on edge trading to construct a path to more porfitable ways by noting the connections among the edge methods.

I trade with an SCT orientation that appearently plagues handicaped readers etc. The chart shows the relative amounts of points taken through the day and I have coincidentally incorporated a potential dail performance possiblility by relating profits to the L/L range and where a given day ranks YDT in the spectrum of H?L ranges.

I also track my ratio on equities to indexes. It runs 50 to 1 ordinarily.

Thanks for so much for your input.

30. here's a better attachment

31. Thanks Bubba. I suppose you as a swing trader know very well how to enjoy life than many (intra)day traders do.

32. Could you post a TA chart showing a couple of day's trading entries, exits points and maybe some signals you took off whatever you're using?

Pick some good days if you will.

33. We've been waiting and waiting, waiting patiently for a breakout, whether up or down.

34. Cool set of Q's this is the kind of stuff that would be handy to know from each person who is running one or more successful edges.

35. I split the thread to reflect the current thoughts. Good luck!

36. Greendog,

Don't let it worry you. Ramoutar once gave us the answer some time ago:

"Subscribers here by thousands float, and jostle one another down, Each paddling in his leaky boat, and here they fish for gold and drown. Now buried in the depths below. New mounted up to heaven again, they reel and stagger to and fro, At their wits' end. like drunken men. Meantime, secure on Garraway cliffs, A savage race, by shipwrecks fed, Lie waiting for the foundered skiffs, and strip the bodies of the dead."

Framed and in my office.

P.S. Ramoutar did not say whether he is also paddling in a leaky boat between this pack.

37. Sorrrry, what are they ?

38. ... I like it!

39. I paddle a leaky boat everyday, and have sunk many times. I haven't died yet, and will allow no one to strip my body!
:eek:

40. By the way, thats quoted from Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds...South Sea Bubble.

41. Hi Jack, do you have any cool clues?

42. Q

All of the traders we interviewed initially experienced great difficulty and frustration, but what sets them apart is that they never allowed themselves to experience failure. ...

We would like to share someone's life history with you:

At the age of 21 he failed in business.
At 22 he lost a state legislative race.
At 24 he failed again in business.
At 26 his lover died.
At 27 he had a nervous breakdown.
At 34 he lost a congressional race.
At 36 he lost another congressional race.
At 45 he lost a senatorial race.
At 49 he again lost a senatorial race.
But at the age of 52 he was elected President of the United States.

This was Abraham Lincoln.

--- R Koppel and H Abell (The Innergame of Trading)

UQ

43. Thanks for that quote Oddtrader, I disagree with their statement, the most successful people have experienced failure. I may be reading it differently, but difficulty and frustration are forms of failure. It is certainly my "subjective" opinion. Failure is a necessary component of becoming successful.

Only after I failed, did I realize something needed to be changed.

44. From the views of others, probably yes.

From the minds of the players, probably not.

It would stimulate a challenge for improvement, yes.

Which aspect you currently have in mind?

46. You said "something needed ". I was just curious for any specific.

47. Ahh, I see. Through the use of a daily trading diary, I keep a log of all the reasons why I succeeded or failed in a trade. When I say success and failure, I'm talking about whether I complied with the my plan for each trade.

An example of one reason for failure is cutting profits too short, becoming too conservative and moving my stop higher on a long (not complying with my plan). One of the ways I combat that weakness is by repeating (verbally) to myself the stop, as it it's reached. It has been working.

48. Interesting! Never heard from any books. Thanks for sharing.

49.
50. Thanks!

I looked at his this new book at Borders. It seems he has got a new order sizing method different from the previous one which is simpler, I would say. Also one chapter appears about the same contents as on his preious books.