Hi all, I have been trading stocks and crude oil (through leveraged ETFs) now for about 6 months. Although I don't have a formal finance education (just graduated with a degree in econ - but as many of you surely know, econ is NOT finance), I have been studying finance and the markets ravenously since my interest was first piqued 8 months or so ago. I have done well so far in the markets. I am thinking that it is time to step up to the big leagues, and I want to trade crude oil futures intraday. After reading a lot about the common mistakes that day traders make, I decided that I would not begin trading until I had a strategy that I knew would work - something that has been backtested and demonstrated positive expectancy. Well, I have spent a ton of time working on and studying different indicators over the past month, and I have found a strategy that seems like it would work so well, that it is down right scary. According to the back test of 1.5 months of intraday trade data, assuming that past results are an indicator of future performance, I can expect to win about 60% of my trades with an average win of 80 ticks ($800 on 1 contract) and an average loss of about 45 ticks. This yields an expectancy of about 30 ticks, or $300/trade. If the trade volume going forward is anything like it has been over my test period, such results would yield annual pre tax earnings of nearly $200k by trading only 1 crude futures contract at a time. Trade 3 and thats over half a million dollars a year. I base my trading decisions on a single indicator, so I have no risk of data mining, or too many degrees of freedom - my test results are statistically significant. Everything that I study with regards to the system leads me to believe that I should start trading this immediately, except for the idea that I could make nearly 200 k a year trading from my house, on one instrument, on a single contract, based on a single technical indicator. It seems unreasonable, it seems too good to be true. So my questions to the group are - 1) Does making 200k a year by trading 1 crude oil futures contract seem outlandish? Do people actually have this type of success, and if so, why don't more people do it? 2) Have any of you ever run into a situation where you have an extremely well performing technical indicator that one day simply breaks down? I mean, has the market every changed in a basic way such that you needed to reconsider your entire trading system (I realize this happens all the time from a fundamental standpoint, but I am coming from a technical standpoint)? 3) Even though I have enough observations based on my backtest to render statistical significance, is 1.5 months of trade data too limited to be reliable. Are there any specific stress tests that I should perform on my system? I'll appreciate any advice, criticism, or suggested reading that you can offer. Thanks!