Both AUD/USD and gold seem to have breached the 40-month EMA decisively. Two downtrends in the making?
When gold will reach 1280 then I will look at where AudUsd is and I will decide whether to go long. I do not think the bear market of gold is over yet.
I don't think so either. We might see more downside for gold, and that might trigger some panic since people are watching what they think is gold settling out and reverting to it's normal upward grind over the last few days. That being said, I'm not betting the farm on gold going down. I just think the downside will be sharper and harder than the potential upside... Like, if we see more downside, it won't be a gentile feather floating down giving all the gold bulls plenty of time to offload their holdings at prices they feel is fair.. it will hurt like the first dip we saw earlier.
The interesting thing is that gold, as soon as the Fed has formalized its willingness to decrease the QE, has started to rise.... maybe the market is saying that the Fed is bluffing?
Tomorrow there will be a meeting of the Rba, and all oscillators suggest strenght for Aud in the coming days.
AudUsd has closed wave 3 (=2.618 times wave 1) at 0.9310. A trading range (wave 4) is expected now before a new fall.