I've been watching a lot of Canadian energy stocks lately, as well as the trading of oil and natural gas specifically, and I can't help but be starting to feel that there isn't much further upside over at least the short to medium term. Many of the big Canadian energy stocks are starting to look ripe for a correction, and at the very least I would be extremely hesitant to buy right here. Any thoughts on this? It's been amusing to watch all sorts of bullish analysts on this topic, one in particular on RobTV is calling for extended energy bull market for at least the next five years...
================= Its not just ''feel bearish'' , but something similiar; looking @ 2 oil/gas stocks with NEGATIVE minus-26% & -27% past 12 months.Only 3oo-700 k average vol however Medium & long term oil/gas leaders look tecknicaly fine; short term , have seen better,especially lower half of group almost sold my major oil gas swing yesterday, but didnt go down enough & block trades coming in eod. Weigh charts much more than analysts. Actually for swing position trade dont see much relation to price of oil/gas, ; and oil gas stocks, looked for years.Maybe for a scalp. .Fine stock chart uptrends @ 1970 oil/gas prices.....
These may be ripe for a correction, but be careful. Oil will be up big over the next decade and you need to get long again at the first sign. You may want to consider dollar cost averaging into a commodity mutual fund.
I have been long KMP (pipelines limited partnership) as well as KMI. I think you will find the energy sector will probably be very stable over the next year in my opinion. With uncertainty in Iran and high oil prices, it's hard right now to make an all out case against oil. The question is, what prices have you bought in at? Last year the energy sector saw a sell off from about Sept. through Dec.. Now I have noticed that there has been a scramble to get back into the energy sector since the oil price has failed to drift lower, back to the mid 50 level like so many had predicted. Heck, even Boone Pickens stated he saw oil going lower since there was plenty of supply post Katrina. Well, oil still hasn't gone lower and demand looks like it isn't going to wane any time soon. So, if you can convince me you see oil going back to the 45 level, I'd become bearish (even though most oil companies would still be undervalued at those levels). In fact, the more the argument for a stronger economy, the more bullish I become on oil since China will only need more to produce the goods our expanding economy would demand. Now, if you see an economic slow down (last GDP report saying something?), that could dampen demand, but most other stocks will probably suffer more in that environment. Geopolitical risk has come back into play (Iran), and we're only 4 months away from the start of hurricane season (God, I hope a much more silent one this year!). When the President is detailing America's "addiction" to oil, it's hard to get too bearish until a solid alternative action plan is detailed. I'm still waiting for that to happen, and I'll continue to hold my oil and energy positions until I'm convinced that talk is turning to action. Just my .02
i watch the natty gas complex. i was long epex for a few weeks, then swung short on it and ngs. something is just not right - we didn't see these prices when natty gas was at 15$. epex reports the beginning of march, might be a good oppurtunity to finally realize that short.
i'm still bullish on oil and energy stocks.....i'm waiting for most of the big name energy stocks (VLO, HAL, OIH...)to hit their 50day moving average, then i'll be buying again
Robert Marcin The Coming Plunge In Oil 2/2/2006 12:53 PM EST Everybody wants to opine about the potential for soft housing prices. In fact, many have been calling for a plunge for the past few years. I want to go on the record for my bubble-burst call. Oil will soon follow natural gas in a plunge! Barring any political/military supply disruptions, which I cannot forecast, oil will drop this spring into the $40's! Every time in the past when there has been a big winter inventory build here, oil prices have plummeted. 2006 will be no different. Matt Simmons and Ken Heebner, you have my forecast. Matt, I would like some of that action on your $200 per barrel oil in 2010 wager. Contact me via this site! Position: short oil