Since spring of 2021 LC has been in an uptrend that doesn't reflect how LC has moved in past. It looks like the S&P when times are good. Have any of you heard of any reason that LC has been behaving this way for so long? Historically it has had much wider swings when trending. I used to swing trade it a lot but now I'm afraid that approach wont' work.
Could it be that the contract is being replaced? You still got hogs. https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1 PerCent Movers- https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
One of the strongest and longest uptrends on the daily chart amongst the markets I follow - my chart below and part of Hightower commentary here With the beef supply expected to tighten this quarter, we expect beef prices to find good support soon, and this could support cash cattle. Key support levels for April Live Cattle are at 159.20 and 158.10, with resistance at 161.15. A close above resistance would suggest a resumption of the uptrend and leave 164.35 as an upside target:
Were you trading straight longs and shorts or spreads, or... How long were those holds lasting in general? https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/fibonacci-fans.372191/page-6#post-5752662
Don't trade it but COF report friday was bullish. Cattle vs. Hogs is near the high of multi-year range so short cattle vs. long hogs?
%% NO not with that=LOL Cash cows had a fairly good run/COWZ C Schwab[not related to SCHW or IBKR founder] is the kind of clown to rebuke ''hi management salaries'' when he made $1,000,000. Good play on words ''hog''; same as swine.
It's been several years since I followed the cattle market. Most were straight long/short. I rarely trade spreads. When I was swing trading in LC most of my trades were less than 3 days. If I hadn't been stopped out on the fourth day I would exit if I had no profit. If I had profit, I would raise my stop to just below the 3rd day's low/high and keep it tight until stopped out. The market was just so consistent with wide swings. I would usually give a lot back when the trend changed. For the past couple of years that dependable whipsaw action seems to have gone away. The LC weekly chart reminds me of the S&P when things are good. It's a buy and hold market instead of a swing trading market. It just feels like something has changed. I think the old whipsaw action of LC was caused by the way smaller producers marketed their cattle and maybe the small guys are getting absorbed by the larger producers. The big guys behave differently when they sell production. Just a guess.
Hi long - yep, live cattle trader here. There are a number of things working in favor of the long side of cattle. Not least of which was the drought pushing cattle off fields and into feedlots. Placement trends relative to historical norms paint that picture fairly clearly, and now the market is adapting to a probability of reduced supply this year. Macro trends are tough to trade in highly leveraged markets and ebbs/flows will happen, sure enough, but imo the market structure is suggesting dips should find buyers. Time will tell, but your "swing trade" may look more like an upward trending channel than a sideways channel. If you ever want to banter back/forth with opinions/ideas ... hit me up.