The weather seems to be pretty cold this year compare to last.
Is it overproduction or warm weather?
VERY warm weather. There has been no demand whatsoever. I don't know where you live but it's not a function of cold weather per se but area. Meaning that it could be the coldest winter ever in NY or Boston or Chicago but that does not affect overall demand, you need to look at the entire country. Put another way, it would be more bullish for the entire country to be at 50 degrees then just the northeast to be at -50.