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Any idea why /NG tanked so much?

  1. The weather seems to be pretty cold this year compare to last.

    Is it overproduction or warm weather?
     
  2. VERY warm weather. There has been no demand whatsoever. I don't know where you live but it's not a function of cold weather per se but area. Meaning that it could be the coldest winter ever in NY or Boston or Chicago but that does not affect overall demand, you need to look at the entire country. Put another way, it would be more bullish for the entire country to be at 50 degrees then just the northeast to be at -50.
     
  3. We are in December, the weather changes a lot for this date and the bag too!
     
  4. Everyone was long nothing more nothing less. When the twtr gurus are long and the retail guys are long and the mailman is long. Only one thing it can do....
     
  5. Thanks Maverick74. NG seems to be more volatile than CL.
     
  6. It's a LOT more volatile then CL. Always has been.
     
  7. Hmm. Next time I'm on my trading machine I'll post some comparison charts. If memory serves NG has been a dog comparatively over the past 18 months or so.
     
  8. I'll save you the time. Here is the 30 day rolling day stat vols for CL vs NG for 2017.
     
  9. And in case you are interested, here is the rolling 5 day stat vol.
     
  10. Doesn't do it for me. Will have to check the charts that I recognize. Granted, I stopped looking at NG since the summer. To be continued...
     
  11. Snap2.png Snap1.png NG is wild beast compared to CL. It has become little tame compared to early 2000, but it always has higher volatility
     
  12. Went back onto trading machine a bit early, to try to watch BTC.

    Here's what I meant about volatility being different between the two...

    Price range over the past year.

    NG...

    ngcont for mav.JPG

    NG $13,000 range on 1 contract

    clcont for mav.JPG

    CL $17,000 range on one contract.

    The blue horizontal lines marks the yearly range.

    Sorry the charts are so compressed and ugly. This was a quicky chart generation, for comparison.
     
  13. Yes but the value of a CL contract is 57k compared to about 26k for natty! CL is over twice the size with only a 10% larger "dollar range".
     
  14. Well, hold on there Mr. Mav. We were speaking of potential volatility. My observations showed that CL seemed to be better for profit taking on a general daily range basis.

    Both contracts are $10 per tick. So in theory the instrument with the better range should have better profit potential. My whole thing was...staring at both the NG and CL charts day in and day out, CL over all was the winner.
     
  15. %%
    Ever looked a 10 or 20 year chart;
    not exact numbers,, but $1.40 .....to $14.00, vice versa, wild roller coaster??You still can see many pics of them flaring the stuff:cool:
     
  16. Long term I trade NG/hedged and taking stabs to find bottom since October 2015, got first target once on 10% of position, and have tried to add on several times since bottoms were made after 10/15. Relatively speaking, NG is cheap, just have to have patience for move higher eventually. Work spreads and dance options around.