Analysis of some intermarket futures spreads

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by xtrhvydty, Mar 16, 2008.

  1. Looking for the right spread to take advantage of the falling equity market and hedge currency risk. Found these results to be interesting. The best spread is, (2.) below, buying Gold Futures and selling the Russell 2000 ER2 Futures. I compared the various spreads to their individual counterparts and ranked them by risk/reward and alpha.

    The following numbers were generated from ThinkorSwim (TOS) charts. Alpha 20 is the indicator Alpha(20, 20), a measure of risk-adjusted performance beyond the bond rate. I have not confirmed its accuracy in TOS but used it anyway for comparison.

    I am curious as to more experienced spreaders suggestions in the current climate.

    Ranking in YTD r/r:
    (2.) Gold Futures - ER2: 3.2
    (1.) Emini Euro FX Futures - ER2: 2.6
    +1 Individual Gold Futures: 2.2
    +1 Individual Euro Emini FX Futures:1.7
    -1 Individual ER2: 1.2

    Ranking in last 20days Alpha:
    Gold: 2.5
    Gold - ER2: 2.0
    Euro Emini FX Futures: 1.3
    Emini Euro FX Futures - ER2: 1.2

    The att'd pic is oriented as follows:

    1 2

    3 4

    (1.) 1 x Emini Euro Fx Futures ($125k/pt) - 1 x ER2 ($100/pt)
    YTD GAIN: $25.5k
    Max Drawdown: $9.7k
    r/r: 2.6
    Alpha 20 day: 1.2

    (2.)1 x Gold Futures - 1 x ER2
    YTD GAIN: $31.5k
    Max Drawdown: $9.8k
    r/r: 3.2
    Alpha 20 day: 2.0

    (3.) 2 x ES Emini Futures - 5*NQ Emini Futures
    YTD GAIN: $20k
    Max Drawdown: $18k
    r/r: 1.1
    Alpha 20 day: -2.9

    (4.) Emini FX Futures - Eurodollar Futures ($2500/pt)
    YTD GAIN: $10k
    Max Drawdown: $10k
    r/r: 1
    Alpha 20 day: 1.0

    Individual Performance:

    +1 Gold Futures
    YTD GAIN: $14.8k
    Max Drawdown: $6.6k
    r/r: 2.2
    Alpha 20 day: 2.5

    -1 ER2
    YTD GAIN: $11.8k
    Max Drawdown: $9.5k
    r/r: 1.2
    Alpha 20 day: .13

    +1 Euro Emini FX Futures
    YTD GAIN: $11.6k
    Max Drawdown: $7k
    r/r: 1.7
    Alpha 20 day: 1.3
     
  2. rosy2

    rosy2

    gold/stock_index is not a spread