AMZN - Earnings Thursday July 29 - My prediction and trading idea

• AMZN at $3,660.
• All time high $3,770.
  
• Earnings this Thursday July 29.
• My prediction up 10%+ after earnings.
• Target price about $4,000.
• New market cap 2 trillion dollars.

Trade Idea

• My maximum risk is $2,000.
• The July 30 3,860 Calls ($200 OTM) are $20.50.
• If AMZN hits $4,000 after earnings those calls will be $140.00.

Any comments on this trading idea?

 

For some reason I am thinking there will be a sell-off after they report that will last for a few weeks. Just a feeling, no technical or fundamental behind it. I dunno' why. How that translates into options I do not know. Best I can reckon...If the stock dips, buy long-dated OTM calls for January or Feb, because their Q4 earnings this year will kick ass, as usual. Remember, people will continue to shop from home and use the cloud during the holidays, especially as everyone falls for the Delta winter surge...AGAIN!

 

Why do you think they will beat? What’s the basis for that?

 

I also think they will beat earnings, but I don't think that will translate on the share price. If you look at AMZN historical, the share price tended to drop after the announcement and recover and grow some days and weeks later.

 

AMZN has been trading sideway for the last year, don't think 4000 can meet.

 

I can definitely see 4000 by Jan or Feb 2022. And do not forget...Bezos is coming down from his space-flight high. He could do something crazy, like a 5-1 or 10-1 stock split, to get more regular folks involved with the company. SHWING!

 

With stocks at all time highs its going to take quite a bit of earnings power to keep those stocks trending up. I do see $4000 on Amazon as a magnet, I believe it will get there eventually,.....after earnings this week is a possibility but no guarantee. Only way it catapults to 4000+ is if they announce a fresh 10 for 1 stock split otherwise this could be a sell on the news evemt. Amazon has finally cleared the hurdle of staying range bound for quite sometime so that is a small inkling of positivity for the stock in the short term.

 

10 for 1 and $4000 within seconds.

Weird that a stock split that adds zero value to a stock can create such euphoria.

 

The hell did you come from S2000, out of nowhere like Spiderman? Aren't you a perma-bear? Go away! Shoosh! *swats away evil bear*

 

Sideways, between 3000 and 3700... that's the only sideways I like.