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AHG - Profitable Strategy for Struggling Traders

  1. The intention of this post is to help struggling traders turn their trading around. It's my way of paying it forward and contributing to a board that consistently complaints about the lack of useful trading information.

    The strategy works in most trending markets but with your help we can make a great thing even better. It is by no means complete but very much functional and consistently profitable once some of the trader's skills are polished.

    It's simply a collection of ideas, personal experience, trial and errors, backtesting and things I put together that changed my trading around over the years.

    I'm open to suggestions and ideas on how to improve what I consider a very good system for daytrading the market. Particularly, the e-minis.

    Let's try to keep it civil and friendly as my priority here is simply to help and improve the system. It's long overdo that I do some contributions and well, tonight is the night.

    Hope it helps and since I designed it I will indulge myself by calling it, for now...

    Anek's Holy Grail v 1.0 :) or AHG for short. As we improve it we can increase the version number. Rest assure, it's a good working strategy for trading and has been my bread and butter for quite some time. I see no reason for this changing.

    Help me help you and feel free to help us help more by chipping in with ideas.

    I shall begin by placing the first stone......

    STEP 1 THE TREND

    - Determine if there is a MEANINGFUL TREND present

    There are two types.

    The meaningful ones:

    Downtrend = lower highs, lower lows
    Uptrend = higher highs, higher lows

    The ones you should ignore (for now) because they require greater
    skill to consistently profit from or
    simply, the sideway ones:

    Congestion/Indecision = higher lows, lower highs (Symmetric Triangle
    formations)
    Consolidation = horizontal lows/highs

    As you get more experienced you can profit off consolidation by fading
    support/resistance but for now, stick only to
    the meaningful trends.

    Again, as you get more experienced you can profit off symmetric
    triangles (HL LH) because they tend to give birth
    to POWERFUL new trends but for now I would rather you stick to the
    meaningful trends.

    STEP 2 ONCE A TREND HAS BEEN DETERMINED HOW DO WE PLAY IT

    - If a MEANINGFUL TREND has been found we need a logical entry.

    Let's start with the UPTREND.

    We BUY a pullback and we are nimble with our target.

    Where exactly ? Well, it can be a 50% Fib retracement from the recent
    High to Low swing, or stochastics crossing, whatever you feel
    comfortable with. We take advantage of minor WEAKNESS in a STRONG
    TREND to get a good fill.

    What's your target ? It can be a few ticks below previous resistance,
    it can be an upper bollinger band. This is entirely up to you
    and only in time you will master this. You could trail the stop to
    ride those breakouts, all very discretionary.

    Stop ? Whatever would make it a lower low aka a CHANGE of trend.

    Now, lets talk about the evil twin, the DOWNTREND.

    We SHORT a pop up and again, we are nimble with our target.

    Where exactly ? Well, it can be a 50% Fib retracement from High to
    Low, Stochastics Crossing, whatever you feel
    comfortable with. We take advantage of STRENGTH in a WEAK TREND to
    get a good fill.

    What's your target ? It can be a few ticks above previous support, it
    can be a lower bollinger band. This is entirely up to you
    and only in time you will master this. You could trail the stop to
    ride those breakdowns, all very discretionary.

    Stop ? Whatever would make it a higher high aka a CHANGE of trend.

    Important, we never go against the trend. When the trend is strong we
    buy a pullback. When the trend is weak we short a pop up.
    No exceptions, don't play hero or Nostradamus. There is not a soul on
    earth who can predict the market consistently and what we want is consistency, so be smart about this.

    If STOPPED OUT, meaning, a CHANGE of a trend, we stay ON THE SIDELINES
    until a NEW MEANINGFUL TREND is defined and we take our stop
    like responsible traders. If we get faked out, so be it, plan your
    trade and trade your plan. Losses are inevitable and quite
    alright as long as we limit them to small numbers.

    Who is our enemy ? You got it, REVERSALS. REVERSALS stop us out.
    Lucky for us, they are not very common which is exactly why this
    strategy works. Some days will be filled with them and sadly I don't
    know how to overcome this. On days like this, I lose money.

    Surprisingly so, people call reversals all the time then you wonder
    why 90% of traders lose money ? We never call a top, we never
    call a bottom, we never say "Oh it's too high" or "It's too low", the
    market has no boundaries. Yes, you heard that right, NO BOUNDARIES.
    There are so many variables in the market it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict
    accurately on a consistently basis therefore the best I can do is
    examine what is happening NOW and try to profit from some possible
    volatility and situate myself in a strategic place, with patience
    and conviction.

    STEP 3 INDICATORS

    I'm not a big fan of technical indicators, mostly because I have no
    interest in using something that tells me what happened 10 years ago.
    Price action is all I need and when using tick/share charts I don't
    need to use a volume indicator.

    However, there are some I use for strength/weakness references,
    entries and exits.

    For example:

    BOLLINGER BANDS with 2.5 Standard Deviation. (I feel 2.0 gets hit far
    too often and distracts me with noise)

    When price is continuously hitting a band, pay attention. It's trying
    to tell you which side is stronger. If you are having difficulty
    identifying the current trend or suspect a reversal, the constant
    hitting of a particular band can provide great info as to where
    momentum is headed.

    TRENDLINES, as many as you need to determine the current trend.

    STOCHASTICS, a cross can be a powerful tool when you are looking for
    an entry in a strong trend. I like 5,3,3 but use whatever you feel
    comfortable with.

    FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES, my favorite. 50% from last swing
    low/high and you got an excellent entry point. Problem is sometimes the
    trend is so strong it won't even give you your wish and you miss the fill.

    STEP 4 MONEY MANAGEMENT

    As you get more experienced, I highly recommend you use an average up
    approach. More on this later, until then, use the same car size
    on every play and for God's sake DO NOT AVERAGE DOWN unless you are
    just trying to get fills for your intended car size, never
    surpassing it. I previously stated and those that known me for a
    while know I advocate averaging up. I feel this is an advanced money
    management technique and for now I am not disccusing it to avoid
    confusion/mistakes.

    STEP 5 DISCIPLINE

    I'll be blunt. Trading is not for the irresponsible. Break the rules
    and you will eventually lose big, period. Trading will forgive
    you if you were wrong on a play even several ones, it won't forgive or tolerate
    idiocy and stupidity. All I need to say on this and you have been
    warned.

    STEP 6 CHART TYPES

    Longbars are evil, therefore I highly recommend tick/share charts so
    you can split that data and examine it with care. For the YM
    I recommend 75 or 89 tick charts. This differs greatly from one
    instrument to the other, the more volume/activity it has the greater
    the ticks size you will need. Use what you feel comfortable with.

    Bye for now,
    Anek
     
  2. A nice start. Good wishes for the thread.
     
  3. What risk level do you use? How do you decide to stop a loss? Can you show a long term trading track record that demonstrates how profitable this method is?

    The difference between a home entertainment trading center and a productive trading method

    <img src=http://www.sauder.com/images/product/Normal/Entertainment_Center_8159-103_1.jpg \img>

    is the track record.
     
  4. Thank you
     
  5. Good luck with this, bro.
     
  6. I'm encouraged by your post, because it confirms that a successful trading system can really be that simple.

    Since you said you were looking to enhance the system, have you ever considered the following as filters:

    1. Market Profile - Used to identify when the market is seeking new value (trending) vs. when it is within a value area (congestion). You can also look at the TPO's to find S/R areas. I'm trying to learn MP right now myself, with the intention of trying to identify higher probability trend environments.

    2. Normal S/R swing lows/highs (higher timeframe, maybe a 400 tick chart) - Avoid taking signals if you're approaching a major S/R line (where reversals or stalls are likely).

    3. Divergence on a higher timeframe momentum scillator to filter out lower probablity entries? I have a hard seeing/trusting these divergences myself, but I know that other people use them successfully.

    Please note that the above suggestions are not based on extensive experience... I've been studing futures trading for about three years now and they are simply based on what I've learned and my observations. The first two I am trying to incorporate in my simulated trading.
     
  7. Hi,

    1) Never found a way to consistently profit from it.

    2) Yes avoid obvious areas of congestions is a good thing. Must take this into consideration when already in the trade.

    3) To be honest, never found divergence to be very reliable so stopped looking for it.

    Yep, suggestions, questions all good in this journal.

    Anek
     
  8. Today's scalps....

    Green vertical denotes a long signal.

    Red vertical denotes a short signal.

    One of the longs was a loser, little trend change hesitation there, the rest got their targets.

    At this time of the day I usually close the platform. 3:21PM EST now.
     
  9. Can you comment on the 4th short signal... looks like the market made a higher low, but you sold short again.

    Also the 2nd long signal came after a minor lower high and lower low.

    I'm not trying to be critical, I'm wondering if maybe you require a certain number of bars to pass or maybe a trendline break before you consider a HH/HL to be a valid change of direction when the market was previously trending down.
     
  10. Mike,

    Glad you asked these questions. Base on the original rules you are absolutely correct but note that there are certain patterns where I advice beginners to stay on the sidelines for now, particularly trend changing areas/consolidation etc. Since Ive been trading for a while now I don't particularly qualify so in my screenshots you will see plays that sort of break the "Stay on the sidelines" rule but I feel it's important to comment on them to avoid confusion, so again, thank you for pointing them out to me.

    On the 4th short.....

    The market was making higher lows, signaling a trend change. However, these reversals, for the most part, don't happen without some hesitation/congestion so I decided to take the stochastics crossing with a very close stop as price was approaching the upper Bollinger Band. Plays like this require a very close stop or the risk is not worth it. However, notice how the stochastics were downtrending so eventhough price was uptrending stochastics were not. Staying on the same side of the MACD trend can help and eventhough it was hinting trend reversal, it was still in the red zone.

    Again, this type of signal requires a bit more skill than the methods described originally so not sure if it was a mistake to annotate them in the screenshot and save them for the future.

    Basically, when I see there is a good strategic play to make money, it's hard not to take it, that's why I daytrade.

    On the 2nd long....

    Same reasoning but the complete opposite. Again, a very close stop to make it worthwhile. In this case, stochastics were uptrending. The lower low here was possibly "noise" as the major downtrend line from the last three tops had already been broken.

    Do you think in the screenshots I should stick ONLY to the basic plays to avoid confusion ?

    I could use your opinions here.

    Hope it helps, and feel free to ask.

    Anek
     
  11. I just started working with MP. Today, from my limited exp. with it, was just balance YM. I just scalped around a bit, although not really my favorite. No trend to be had.

    I am hopeful that MP can help my filter my entry signals. So far so good.
     
  12. D,

    Would be nice if you can share any findings as you get more experienced with it.

    I'm afraid I never found any real value with MP but perhaps I was not looking at the right places.

    Anek
     
  13. I can only speak for myself (and I doubt I'm the only one reading this thread), but I would like to see all of the plays you're willing to share with us and understand your logic behind each one. The method you described in your original post to me seems very clear and simple, but I think the trader makes the method, not the other way around. Thus the discretionary element you brought to the two trades I asked you about is where I learn the most about a successful trader's mindset.

    If I could add an observation regarding the price action of most of your successful trades today.... most of your trades took place where price pulled back to a previous breakout level. This follows the belief that support becomes resistance after broken, and visa versa. For example, your first two short trades occurred at the point where price broke down at 1pm, when support turned into resistance. This same thing happened on your third short and third long (price was just a little lower than the breakout level on the long one). I've been playing with the idea of scaling in the first lot at these inflection points with a tight stop, as opposed to waiting for momentum to shift first. I believe you'd end up with a better average entry on most trades, but don't have the experience or test results to prove it. Anyway, I don't want to go too far off track from the system you originally disclosed, but I'm starting to believe "S/R levels reverse roles after broken" as a market truth, and compliments your method.

    Thanks again for sharing today's trades... please keep it up!

    MHB
     
  14. I was just speaking to a fellow trader and he suggested that the more things get added the more complicated the system can get. He is absolutely right, so I got to make sure that any enhancement is worth the trouble to avoid technical complexities. As it is now, it's very simple and relaxing. The earth the stars and the moon must not be aligned for now and that's exactly what I want to avoid, yet I can't say no to any improvement as long as things stay moderately simple.
     
  15. Mike,

    Sometimes it's hard to get a good fill because logical trading is no secret to experienced traders. What I do to overcome this is I try to anticipate where price might be if a 50% retracement occurs or a stoch cross and situate myself with a limit order in the race not only to get a good position in the queue but to get filled on those quick whipsaws that are brutally fast yet golden.

    This is all scalping so every tick counts.

    For what is worth, all my entries are limits, all my targets are limits and all my stops are market.

    Anek
     
  16. It would be more encouraging if you didn't ignore people's requests for your personal background. Hook. N Sinker asked some very good questions, and you ignored him. You presented your methods as profitable, successful and what we should do.

    Without this, all these things you are posting is gibberish, unproven and useless until proven otherwise.

    Then to mikeh, you respond about what you think reliable or successful. So why are you the judge of what is profitable? You are a relative unknown here, so there is no evidence you know more than anyone else.

    If you are looking to moderate a fruitful thread, you need not to be the expert .
     
  17. Attached please find one of the main reasons as to why my signals switched from shorts to longs today.

    The trendline also marks the three tops I spoke about.
     
  18. Yikes, that's some serious negativity. I wasn't trying to moderate, just participate. The original post openely invited questions and observations (isn't that what makes a successful thread?), so I decided to stop lurking for a moment and contribute. I didn't realize I had to prove I was an expert before posting... if that were a requirement elitetrader would be a ghost town.

    I openly disclosed that my opinions are not based on real-market experience (just observation and simulated trading), which I dare say is more honest than most of the jokers on this site, so I never claimed to be the judge of anything. I just got very excited by a generous post from someone who is disclosing a logical trading methodology which happens to be extremely similar to a method I've been refining and practicing for several months now. To me that's exciting and encouraging. I don't need someone to show me their bank statement to believe a market approach works, especially if it confirms what I've already noted about market behavior.

    Until the OP begins asking for money for his insights, he doesn't have to prove anything to us. It's very easy to try out new methods without risking real $$ on a market simulator. I view threads like this and others that have been started by other generous people to be exactly what they are: a rare gift. Take it or leave it.
     

  19. ha rcan,
    I can attest to the fact that this guy , Anek, can really trade. A few months ago I was in the Puretick room for a few weeks and saw this guy trade firsthand . He gave insightdul calls and openly discussed his trading in the live room as he was doing it. And he was really, really consistent in making profitable calls. Day in and day out.
    Probably, the best I have ever seen.

    Anyway, Anek I really appreciate this new thread and look forward to learn and contribute on an ongoing basis !!
     
  20. Yep, that is what the journal is for. Hopefully we all learn from this project, myself included of course.
     
  21. You weren't the subject. But it was disappointing when someone else ("Hook) brought up valid points, and the OP blows through them. Readers have the right to ask questions like those, before newbie traders who read this start risking their capital on it.

    If someone (OP) present a thread based on his methods as if they are profitable and as the solid basis, not even answering someone who asks valid questions is a poor sign.

    And it remains so, to this point.

    A person with some 30-40 posts saying he is profitable is a suspicious thing to ET netizens. Next thing you know, AHG will become a website, where followers are encouraged to subscribe.
     
  22. Hi Anek,
    On your chart you pointed to a possible trend change.


    What caused you to see that. Was it the two higher lows and one higher high(between 13:16 and 13:20), together with the strong upcandle that broke the 50% level of the last down swing?
     
  23. Trendline pierced with a body that closed (not a wick but body) and nothing but higher lows. Falling knives rarely make higher lows, when they do, it's most possibly a reversal.
     
  24. Great day today, nothing but lower highs and lower lows. No reversal yet but the YM approaching the 900 support area so congestion to be expected. The morning however, has been nothing but paradise for the system. In fact, today so far is optimal for my style. Due to OEX and 900 support area I might skip the afternoon and keep the profits. Charts to come....
     
  25. Its surprising that more people dont have the patience to wait for days like this and load up when they come along. A couple of good down days a month is all you need and there almost always is. The problem is that most people cannot be the frog. Whew. This is getting bloody.
     
  26. Yeah makes you wonder how T28's 3sma+1 re-entry is going today :p

    I guess you are right, some people don't have the patience before jumping onto another system
     
  27. Chart for 07.20.07

    Vertical green line is long.

    Vertical red line is short.

    There is no magic in here, just the system.

    Weekend is here !

    PS: Note to self stop taking those lame ass MACD crosses even if the stop is minuscule, that thing lags more than your grandma. Use strictly for trend visual reference, mountain colors or get rid of it.
     
  28. Well make up your mind.. you sound like our grandma :)
     
  29. As a visual indicator it is helpful when things get hectic but the zero line cross distracts so need some discipline there. There is always room for improvement.
     
  30. Ahhh the ole zero line conundrum.. it's all interpretation Holmes.. indicators are a good servant but a poor master

    If an indicator is taking trades away from you then you are letting it influence you instead of working it to unveil the price action your brain unconsciously recognizes
     
  31. Yep, think it's time to say goodbye as its leaving my workspace.

    Thanks for the comment, very logical.
     
  32. I got several requests via PM to post my workspace therefore I'm attaching a screenshot to this post.

    If you got questions, just use the the journal, if it's something personal then sure PM me but i got 3 PMs that had the exact same question.

    I only use one monitor when trading, big one though, and as far as the main chart I adjust tick chart on the fly depending on volume for the day or whichever reference I need. Usually I change from 75 to 89 to 150 200 250, depending on price action but only one point of view and my big anchor chart which is the 2000 tick for big S/R.

    Hope it helps.
     
  33. Several months ago someone in the forums posted this chart for reference and I kept it in my archives. I'm sorry I can't remember who did but he/she deserves the credit.

    This is what it's all about, price action, all else is secondary.
     
  34. man shut the fuck up and get the fuck out of this thread. fucking assholes, always looking for complete handouts. OP, continue please.
     
  35. I'm not sure you said fuck enough.. a real professional trader would have used it every second word not just every third or fourth
     
  36. Thats from ghkramer I think.


    Good luck Anekdoten.
     
  37. Thank you for both.
     
  38. As a weekend exercise I continue to backtest/study fixed volume bars as I slowly begin a transition to them. It has been almost 5 months since I began the transition but still very much a work in progress. As they say don't fix what is not broken but if we don't experiment or take new risks we risk never improving our current methods.

    Good friend of mine is always making fun of my ever evolving charts and well, that is probably the reason why, I'm always experimenting.
     
  39. Trades for 07.23.07

    All winners except the first long.

    Green lines long
    Red lines short

    Thick white line, change of a trend.

    100% system following no deviation.

    Morning > Afternoon imho

    Skipping lunch helps.

    Calling it a day.
     
  40. I made some of the same trades today. Are you setting a target for exit? I need to start using a program that automatically enters a stop. I sometimes enter a limit order by mistake which kills the trade. Keep posting, much appreciated.
     
  41. B,

    I use OSO in Tradestation, basically it auto places stop(s)/target(s) based on predetermined fixed values. Naturally, I do this for security reasons.

    After the order has been filled I adjust them base on support/resistance and/or complacency levels.
     
  42. Tomorrow I take my volume bars chart transition live. After studying them for 5 months I think I will be able to read price action better this way.

    Also asked a friend savvy in EL to help me code some slope/colors into the stochs.

    I've also said my official farewell to the old dog MACD, cant' say I will miss you. In fact, the screen real estate is more than welcome. Since I only used MACD as a quick trend reference I decided to add a 34 Hull Moving Average on screen instead. Why 34 ? Because it's a fib # and it makes me a "cool trader". Do I actually believe in this voodoo shit ? Only on fib 50% retracement :)

    New chart attached.
     
  43. Countertrending Trades, definitely not part of the system.

    However some are just too pretty.

    I did not trade the afternoon but after analyzing it here is one I could have not said no to.

    Of course, "Support" gave it away.

    ..also notice how price rebounded off the previous "major" support on the previous up-wave. Now, don't use this info to countertrade just yet but as extra info for your stops/targets/trails etc.

    It also alerts you. For example, "hmm major support is coming, perhaps the trend will develop into congestion or maybe even a reversal, not the right time to trail...." Cover, wait and analyze the rebound.

    Market hours were about to close in NY but how price reacts to support is very important. For instance, if the bounce, and there is usually always a bounce at major support, was anemic, then perhaps the bearish trend is even more powerful than expected and you could be more greedy with your shorts, etc.; after getting rid of your longs of course.

    The market speaks but it's imperative that you listen.

    I'm not saying it is but sometimes trading can really be this easy.

    Hope it helps.
     
  44. Quick tip.

    Remember that a lower low without a lower high is not the same as a lower low and a lower high :0 .... at the same time a higher low without a higher high is not an uptrend. Patience is required, wait for those patterns to develop, wait for an opportunity, look around you (s/r) aim (think of entry/stop/targets) then fire (execute).

    Ok bedtime now !
     
  45. How do you get the ma line to change color? Looks nice! Appears to change color based on the slope of the line, up or down. Nice visual of trend.

    Never mind! I just added the indicator and I see the color thing is built in. :)
     
  46. Ya feature it's built in. Remember, MAs lag terribly but for a quick refresh of what's going on, assuming it's strong, it's a good reminder. Now, I also use Bollinger Bands, it's mid line is nothing but a 20 SMA so not sure how much I will need the HMA, time will tell.
     
  47. so we have a low this morning of 13892

    the question is, do you play this from here as an uptrend or a downtrend?
     
  48. We are congested at this point.
     
  49. Clear and useful thread,thanks..except I don't quite get how you determine your targets..are they equal to your risk that you take on every call? I use similar method/system/ but seems like too often I "overstay market's welcome''...keep it up:)
     
  50. cough cough!

    :p


    agree
     
  51. Trades for 07-24-07

    Daily target reached fairly quickly based on last short so decided to call it a day.

    The long on the chart reached it's target but did not get the fill, moved the stop to break even and finally broke down.

    The rest did well, second short nothing spectacular, barely a positive trade.

    Last short definitely did it.

    Staying loyal to the morning > afternoon I'm taking off.
     
  52. Good trades tend to work right from the start. However, volatility rules the market so some room must be given to your stop.

    If the trade looks like it needs a big stop, I would not take it, why would you ? Risk control is very important in trading and the market is always there so no need to rush in trades.

    I do not like trades that require bigger than 1:1 risk so for now, you could start with that. With commissions and all you really can't afford to go beyond that. As your precision increases you can take it to 1.2 target-1.5 and beyond.

    Now when there is hesitation around your target you can always adjust your stop up/down to break even and dare I say it, "hope" you get filled.

    At this point I'm using fixed targets based on price action and fluidity and not scaling out, more on this later.

    Hope it helps.
     
  53. This buds for you :p

    Was around the time you asked, but it was not that complete.
     
  54. Looks like a trending afternoon, wish I saw it coming. Oh well tomorrow the market also opens, no harm done.

    <couldnt stay out, shorting pop ups like crazy>
     
  55. What an afternoon, after I saw the avalanche coming there was no doubt in my mind, and prob in yours, that the trend was nowhere but down.

    I managed to take a few but by the time I returned to trading it was almost over. The sad part is that it would had been a tremendous show for the journal. Nothing but lower lows and lower highs that could had been shorted to hell on every pop up.

    However, there will be a day it happens again, hopefully soon and I will be all over its ass. In fact, that's where my system excels at.

    Have a nice night.
     
  56. Little late night reading.

    Advantage of scalping with the trend. Not only do you get more opportunities but well, the chart speaks for itself and it has annotations.

    If you suffer from over-trading, this chart is for you :)

    Trend is your friend !
     
  57. Thanks for the nice charts and good analyses. Here is a similar way of looking at countertrend supports-but it is absolutely true, why fight the trend-it is just nice to know you could. We all could be heros sometimes - you don't need special powers - Hiro Nakamura :) [​IMG]
     
  58. Yay, great character, great show.

    Thanks for your contribution I will study it.

    Anek
     
  59. You got to love the way they run this up and down, but take the scalp trade when you can. The ADX was peaking and other volume indicators showing buying in this trade, no way of knowing how far a run up (it was easily another 20 points, but it was still countertrend. Sorry to clutter up your neat journal. :) [​IMG]
     
  60. T,

    Ya I see what you mean by ADX. Haven't studied it yet, need to see if the signal is > 50% then I can consider it.

    Yep, loving the morning so far, many many trades :)
     
  61. still having a tough time. I did finally (hah!) identify the trend as down this morning, but still had trouble finding good entries... hard to believe in hindsight.
     
  62. Up to 10:50am it was nothing but a downtrend. Took eight shorts there, will display later in the day.
     
  63. Trades for 07-25-07

    Note1:

    When a trendline is broken and the last high is a lower high it's safe to take a short on a pop up. Unfortunately, the pop up never occurred and I could not get my fill, but I was shooting for a good target there. Worked like a charm except I could not capitalize from it due to no pop up. The least you want to do when that happens is chase it.

    Note2:

    Change of a trend. At this point you should see why. I took a short there, lost and took a full stop.

    Note3:

    At the top see those higher high tops ? Well as priced tanked I took a long when price stabilized and worked well. Not sure if it was the most optimal play (high stochs and all) but took my quick profits little bit below resistance and said to myself take your break, your day is over.

    As always, vertical red lines shorts, vertical green lines long, with the trend, on the pullbacks/pop ups. Third short got stopped out. Fifth short BE trade. Rest did well. Longs did well.

    Not so hard, just need to polish those skills of constantly examining the LL HH LH HL.

    Last but not least maximum discipline at all times

    Real nice market today.

    Anek

    PS: Morning > Afternoon but there are exceptions like yesterday (sob!) :)
     
  64. Could not say no to this one....

    Once again, trendline break on lower highs.

    Trailing this baby, let us see how it goes.
     
  65. Great charts. It looks like you enter your trades when the price crossed the middle of the bollinger band rather than off of the sto. Is this correct?
     
  66. Not taking profits until a higher high is made.

    Little lesson in letting the winners run. Hope it goes well for the illustration.
     
  67. Thanks appreciated.

    Not exactly but it looks that way does not it, good observation. Remember that I must get the fill so sometimes the entry is not exactly the most optimal although I make an effort to get it.
     
  68. ....and the conclusion. The higher lows hinted it and the higher high confirmed it. Optimal cover point possibly the higher low formation but as you eat lunch and take the rest of the day off it's ok to say once in a while, WTF let's see if it can make a new HH, and well it did.
     
  69. It's hard to get the fill RIGHT when the stochs crosses. In order to this you need to anticipate them or compromise on the fill.
     
  70. How do you get those nice red and blue lines at the highs/lows? Custom t/s indicator?
     
  71. fuck fuck fuckity fuck! *whew*

    I bet when I check my trading account that shit will have skyrocketed! Steak and Lobster to-nite baby!
     
  72. Heikin Ashi Bars

    I'm attaching the ELD to this post for you or anyone else that is interested and is a user of Tradestation.

    From Investopedia:

    "A type of candlestick chart that shares many characteristics with standard candlestick charts, but differs because of the values used to create each bar. Instead of using the open-high-low-close (OHLC) bars like standard candlestick charts, the Heikin-Ashi technique uses a modified formula:

    Close = (Open+High+Low+Close)/4
    Open = [Open (previous bar) + Close (previous bar)]/2
    High = Max (High,Open,Close)
    Low = Min (Low,Open, Close)

    The Heikin-Ashi technique is used by technical traders to identify a given trend more easily. Hollow candles with no lower shadows are used to signal a strong uptrend, while filled candles with no higher shadow are used to identify a strong downtrend.

    This technique should be used in combination with standard candlestick charts or other indicators to provide a technical trader the information needed to make a profitable trade."
     
  73. Thanks, I will use the HA bars. I couldn't get your linked file to work, but I found the paintbar on the Tradestation support forum. What I can't find is how you make those blue lines to mark the highs and red lines (dots) to mark the lows on your charts. Might be labeled "SHME Dynamic SR" on your chart.
     
  74. following along..
    thanks for the great thread!

    :)
     
  75. You are welcome, now I know where I store my notes :)
     
  76. How are the dynamic S/R lines determined? (ie what's the code for that?)

    Thanks for the thread, it's fun to follow along.
     
  77. Couple of common questions sent via PM.

    NEWS

    I don't follow the news except when I bump into them after trading.

    I used to pay attention to the time of important news releases but I don't anymore.

    If the trade goes against me I will get stopped out and if it goes in my favor I will hit my target(s) simple. A canadian friend taught me that, you know who you are.

    The news itself is absolutely worthless to me for trading. How the market reacts cannot be illustrated better or faster than in a clean chart.

    The one exception is FOMC. I trade that differently, more like personal fun trades with minimal car size but the point is I do pay attention for the day and time of that particular announcement because the news can be very drastic and basically kill all patterns within sight.

    SWING TRADING

    Usually I don't as I'm mostly a scalper. It's got nothing to do about holding overnight, I just prefer the higher size small stop approach.

    Ok that's about it.
     
  78. The S/R just determines the high and low for a user input period.

    Here is the code:

    [LegacyColorValue = true];


    { _SHME_Dynamic_SR - draw dynamic s/rlines for the period - periods auto calculated }


    {Programmer: Avery T. Horton, Jr. aka TheRumpledOne}

    inputs:


    iMode("No"), { if "auto" code sets xPeriods, if not "auto" code uses iPeriods}

    iPeriods(05),
    HighColor( red),
    LowColor( blue) ;

    variables:

    xPeriods(60),
    xInterval(0),
    sFirstPass(true),
    HavePrevLines( false ),
    TLHigh( 0 ),
    TLLow( 0 ),
    PushHigh( 0 ),
    PushLow( 0 ),
    OldPushHigh( 0 ),
    OldPushLow( 0 ),
    PrevPushHigh( 0 ),
    PrevPushLow( 0 ) ;


    {first time through}

    if sFirstPass
    then begin

    sFirstPass = false;

    {bar test}

    If bartype = 4
    then xInterval = 94
    else
    If bartype = 3
    then xInterval = 93
    else
    If bartype = 2
    then xInterval = 92
    else
    If bartype = 1
    then begin
    xInterval = BarInterval;
    end; { If bartype = 1 }

    {mode test}

    If iMode <> "Auto" and iMode <> "auto" and iMode <> "AUTO"
    then xPeriods = iPeriods
    else xPeriods = _fPushPeriods(xInterval);

    end; {if sFirstPass}

    {save old values}

    If PushHigh <> PrevPushHigh
    then OldPushHigh = PrevPushHigh;

    If PushLow <> PrevPushLow
    then OldPushLow = PrevPushLow ;

    OldPushHigh = PrevPushHigh ;
    OldPushLow = PrevPushLow ;

    PrevPushHigh = PushHigh ;
    PrevPushLow = PushLow ;

    { high / low for period }

    PushHigh = Highest( H, xPeriods);
    PushLow = Lowest( L, xPeriods) ;

    If PushHigh <> H
    and PushHigh < PrevPushHigh
    then PushHigh = PrevPushHigh;

    If PushLow <> L
    and PushLow > PrevPushLow
    then PushLow = PrevPushLow;

    plot1(PushLow, "PushLow", LowColor);

    plot2(PushHigh, "PushHigh", HighColor);
     
  79. Hi Anek
    Thanks for the journal
    When do you feel a bottom is a bottom. My question is easier to see on the chart
     
  80. 07.26.07

    Bearish trending day, "we've been expecting you!"

    Vertical green longs

    (2nd didnt work due to reversal)

    Vertical red shorts

    (5th didnt work due to reversal)

    Morning trades attached, afternoon will follow on next post.

    The trend is your friend baby!
     
  81. 07.26.07 Afternoon

    Highly more difficult session. In many cases due to reversals and congestion i got chopped to death but still was able to fight through the storm to score some good plays. Morning was by far more optimal for the system.

    Shorts

    First and second worked well

    Third did too, took little heat but after sticking to the plan it worked well.

    Fourth, a beauty.

    Fifth stopped me out, hint of reversal.

    Sixth worked, took little heat but worked well.

    Seventh took a full stop, hint of reversal.

    Longs

    First, full stop, hint of reversal.

    Second, worked with massive heat, price got 2 tick from the stop then KABOOM and Ca$shing.

    Third, was a beauty.

    Fourth, another beauty.

    Fifth, biggie stop, got killed here.

    Sixth, another stop.

    Morning score: 2 losers and 9 winners.
    Afternoon score: 5 losers and 8 winners (yes overtraded a bit but emotions got to me, was a crazy day!)

    Total score: 7 losers 17 winners

    And called it a day, overall, extremely profitable day with a more dangerous and complicated afternoon. Morning was just kindergarden stuff for the system.

    Tip of the day, trade what you see, with the trend, whether is up or down, no bias. Stick to your method and in and out, in and out. Believe in your method and your method will believe in you.

    Hope it helps, what a day!
     
  82. A,

    In my humble opinion a bottom is never confirmed until you see higher lows *and* higher highs and with a subsequent low that is also a higher low hinting towards yet another new, higher high.

    Remember to make an effort not to call bottoms or tops, just trade the trend.

    Now, when price reaches the HOD or the LOD congestion and hesitation is to be expected so better to examine it from the sidelines unless you are already in a trade and just managing your exit. Unfortunately, easier said than done because there is massive uncertainty at those areas.

    When price is close to HOD, I look for a pullback to sell MOST below the HOD and leave a bit on the table for a possible run. On the other hand, when price is close to a LOD, I look for a pop up, to short it back and cover around the LOD with again, a runner for home runs.

    ....for now, I would simply recommend to avoid those areas.

    Hope it helps.
     
  83. Hi,

    Love the thread, thanks.

    1) Does anyone have an esig Heiken bar .efs ? (I went to the esignal forum and found one but it overlays on regular bars and you have to paint the regular bars background colour not to see them.....problem is if you stick a bollinger or whatever on there it calculates based on regular price bars....)

    2) I noticed you used 200 sb chart yesterday but used a 250 sb today ? Is there any indication when to use which one ?

    3) On a regular session (not like today obviously) what point values is the usual target and stop ? ie: 10 point stops with 10 point gains, 15 point stops with 15 point gains....etc

    4) Can you go over briefly how you indentify congestion ?

    5) I don't see what purpose the stoch serves or bollinger bands serve.....to me it just looks like you see trend up so buy when the first or second bar turns green, or if trend down short when first or second bar turns red (after a series of atleast a few bars agains't the trend obviously first....ie: reasonable retrace).....then you enter on bar colour change back in the direction of trend set stop of X amount of points and set target of X amount of points....

    6) Have you tried this on ES (just wondering because slippage will become an issue on YM on real size whereas ES can take 200 - 300 cars with maybe .25 slippage max.....lol, I am only doing 1 car but just curious for someone that is consistently profitable and wants to continue to increase their gains like yourself.

    Cheers :D
     
  84. 1) I'm sure Esignal has HA bars. I mostly use their colors for quick reference.

    2) I adjust tick/share volume depending on how I feel the current day is developing. If low volume day, might even go down to 150, 100. etc. Just looking for the right glasses you know.

    3) I suggest to trade with a 1:1 risk vs reward ratio then as you get better you can increase the reward; as you get more optimal entry areas and a feel for when things are running your way. HA bars help for the runners, so do the dots I use on the bottom, HHs if you are long, LLs if you are short, etc. I believe this area is very personal but I definitely dont suggest a crazy 20 point stop and 10 point target, that's just plain bad risk management. You need to turn the odds in your favor or you won't win. Remember, the best trades always tend to work from the start causing very little heat. If your examination is correct, no need to use volatility as insurance. Big stops in contrast to targets are for the insecure.

    Amateurs want to be right, professionals just want to make money, therefore, I believe a 1:1 risk vs reward is a good starting point to FORCE yourself to trade well. 1.3 risk vs 1.0 reward MAYBE for starters but never above that. As you get more experienced it is your duty, yes your duty, to start expanding that reward area, and only then is that you reach constant profitability. If you *have* to use a bigger stop then you simply need to polish your entry skills or else look for other risk management methods like adjusting stops on the fly, of course, always tightening NEVER widening. The idea is to REDUCE risk not increase it.

    4) Congestion is when you see a HH and LL or HL and LH. ie Consolidation, Symmetric Triangles, etc. Uncertainty if you will.

    5) I use it as guidance, indicators for me are simply confirmations, references. Price > all. If you feel better without them, by all means, get rid of them, more real estate for price ! However, I still find 5,3,3 crosses with the trend useful, I try to anticipate them all the time. Bollingers, again, another reference, when price is hugging a band, another quick reference of current momentum.

    6) Absolutely, that is the plan for the future. Could not agree more.

    Hope it helps.
     
  85. Cheers :D

     
  86. Long live trading - Greed is good ! :)
     
  87. Another fairly easy day with strong trending moves, just how I like them. Pretty good hit rate today, very pleased with the market.

    Friday afternoon and as expected, some choppyness so heading out to relax.

    Charts will come soon for sure :)
     
  88. 07-27-07

    6 Winners 3 Losers, no shame in that, just filling the cup with drops, but filling it :)

    Yep, i deserve the loss on the last short, bad call.

    Second short was a home run, 49 points.

    Market was a good boy but I could have read it better so not sure why i said earlier I was pleased with the market. Perhaps I am, and just not pleased with myself. Oh well, the idea is to end up in the green with discipline and patience, and that I did.

    Went back to TICK charts for comparative reasons and cleaned some aspects of the chart. Using Pivot High/Low indicator from Tradestation to compare with S/R dots, so far I like my cleaner charts. (Sorry TRO)

    Played with new stoch settings, but prefer 5,3,3 for now.

    This marks the end of a full trading week. Not a single down day and without special magic.

    Same as always, system trend following, in and out without deviating from the rules.

    Anek
     
  89. Akhnoten, you gotta know you got a problem when you're tweaking the indicators.
     
  90. I like to experiment and evolve always looking for better results. Don't see a problem with that, besides people PM suggestions and tests of their own for me to try.
     
  91. The problem is that by the time you've tweaked your indicators, the market may have changed.
     
  92. Perhaps that is precisely why I don't rely much in them. I could delete them all, as I have in the past, and do 90% as well.

    They are are basically filters and references to my signals, not the other way around.

    Price action is all I need.
     
  93. Here is my chart from this morning. Looks like I made a few of the same trades. I do not find the sto very helpful and deleted it.
    I am using a long term macd as a reminder that a trend may be ending when I see a divergence, just take it more slowly then.

    Andec, thanks again for sharing

    My first attempt at posting a chart.
     
  94. Yep, if you made a few of the same trades then it means you are in understanding of the system. If the stochs or any indicator are not enhancing your plays, by all means delete them like a virus, most of them are anyway :)

    np, happy to share

    Anek
     
  95. Anek I have a couple of questions. Do you not trade certain hours of the day and do you use any special considerations on non-trending range days to stay out of trades?

    Thanks,
    Don
     
  96. You never know if it's going to be a trending day or not. If I did, Carlos Slim and Bill Gates would be behind me and that' not a joke :)

    It's true that heavy trending days are easier to trade than one that has 5-6 reversals in a 4 hour period. However, I have yet to see a day with nothing but reversals and no trends. The worst is possibly a heavily congested day but then that wouldn't be a marathon of reversals, simply a heavily congested one; and you stay away from those of course.

    IMHO, the mornings are superior to the afternoons, and lunch can be a bit tricky.

    Remember, two higher lows, two higher highs constitute an uptrend channel.

    Two lower highs and two lower lows , constitute a downtrend channel.

    Don't force your trades, let those patterns form.

    Best I can think of right now.

    BTW, a choppy morning does not consitute a choppy afternoon and vice-versa.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  97. 07-30-07

    Trades for today.

    7 longs

    5 winners
    2 losers

    1 short
    1 loser

    (the short. ALMOST worked, but hit my stopped then my target, evil !)

    Total:

    3 losers 5 winners

    Most of the winners were trailed for a splendid day. Noticed I took way less trades with the 14,3,3 stochs and eventhough my broker is not pleased, I am.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  98. Well at this point it should be fairly easy to notice that I'm mostly doing trend following with the stochs in its most basic form.

    I do additional scalps and look for symmetric triangle formations, like one that formed today in the afternoon below the HOD that was simply a beauty, but I don't post that because it's a bit more advanced trading and not pertinent to this journal.

    I'm down to two indicators, stochs and heikin ashi bars and it looks like I'm going to keep it that way, simple is better.

    I'm waiting for a massively congested day to demonstrate how those can be tough to trade with this system but all in all I feel I have covered most areas in my charts.

    Anek
     
  99. Here is the symmetric triangle I mentioned earlier.

    Lower Highs

    Higher Lows

    Price gets trapped, when it finds a direction and escapes, you got a breakout. Especially when close to LOD or HOD areas. In this case, it was below HOD and made a new one.

    Am I getting through with this ? :)

    Possibly the most aggressive play I did today.

    Anek
     
  100. Anek,

    Just wanted to say a big thanks for this thread and your charts with trades. I am finding this information very helpful and I would appreciate if you could continue for a few more weeks so you can show us how you handle some lower volidity days and chop days.

    Thanks again :D
     
  101. Razor,

    Glad you like it. Sure, I don't feel I have covered all trading scenarios yet but we are getting close.

    Practice the skill of recognizing trends, particularly where those HH, HL, LL and LHs are formed and in the long run you will develop a sixth sense for that kind of action.

    When price is ready to act it has a peculiar characteristic, sort of like fire in it ass. Learn to read its behavior. Polish the skills. If you can, record live trading days with Fraps or Camtasia, if you got Esignal then you got the play by tick feature built in, study live action once the day is over. Every bit helps. Study and practice, study and practice.

    Those that quit before the end of the road end up losing. Perseverance and patience is the key.

    I can't remember the last time I had a losing month trading this method.

    If I can do it, you can do it. It just took time to develop the skills

    Anek
     
  102. Anek,

    I'm enjoying your thread very much; keep up the good work. Two questions:

    1) Can you talk about your money/trade management? ie. setting initial stop losses, scaling out of trades after certain profit targets are hit, and trailing stops. Do you have hard and fast rules on managing the trade or is every trade discretionary?

    2) Do you use limit or market orders?

    Thanks,
    Tyler
     
  103. 1) I'm not a fan of big stops. Big stops make lazy traders over-trade and start praying, when they should be trading and analyzing. However, this takes a lot of skill and patience which is precisely why many traders imho choose to ignore it. Let me put it this way, if the trade requires a big stop, I'm not interested.

    Big stops are for the insecure.
    In my experience when your trade premise is correct your stop should be big enough to handle noise but not much else. Trading is mostly about risk management. If you violate that rule you are toasted. This stop management technique lowers your accuracy rate but so what, i want to make money not be a magic 8 ball :)

    As far as scaling out, if I happen to choose that route I make sure my first target is AT THE VERY LEAST as big as my stop. Then I quickly move stop to BE and let it ride as much as I can until price loses momentum. Remember, to take profits BEFORE the next resistance when going long and BEFORE the next support when going short. I usually let a small portion of the trade ride for the home run. It's very important that you understand that support is meant to support and resistance is meant to resist. The break is the exception not the rule. There is also more congestion in those areas aka harder fills for your limit orders which brings me to your second question.

    2) Limit orders exclusively unless on my emergency stop where I use market.
     

  104. Cheers :D

    PS: As a note I am trading this with the NQ right now because the dollar stops are smaller than YM.

    Net -$76 Fri, Net -$28 today....almost breakeven if ya don't factor commish so not a bad start IMHO
     
  105. If you post your charts perhaps I can spot the flaws if any.

    Anek
     
  106. Hey,

    Thanks Anek, I will post my chart with actual entries, exits and explanation of why after tomorrow's trading. For Friday and today I will admit I made some trades that were agains't the trend looking for a reversal.....yes, I know not smart :D

    Hopefully knowing I have to post my chart tomorrow will force me to only take the trend trades......we shall see.....

    Cheers :D
     
  107. Razor,

    Magnifying glass is on !

    I'll be watching :D
     
  108. BTW.....

    You can enhance your trading by making an effort to recognize the three most powerful patterns in trading.

    1) Symmetric Triangles

    2) Double Bottoms

    3) Double Tops

    Anek
     
  109. took one trade this morning - it was nearly a perfect setup, I was seeing lower highs, lower lows, but i shorted too close to the bottom of the bar and got stopped out almost instantly.... by a higher high! The market then continued its downtrend. I know I can't let stuff like that bother me and must keep trading and taking the signals, but this threw me off. It looks like you took a long trade at almost the same time. Is that right? 10:34 eastern time. Anyway, thanks for this thread and your advice. It is extremely helpful and is very compatible with my trading style.
     
  110. Jaxon,

    I see that. BTW, 89 shares, that's quite fast. I think the faster your chart the more failed patterns you will see.

    Noticed the market gave you FIVE opportunies to short it on a pop up, yet you took the one that did not work :)

    ...and yes I agree, a HH heh that just plain sucks. Perhaps the mistake was shorting on low stochs.

    Anek

    PS: I use exchange time not EST
     
  111. Sounds like a plan :D Thanks
     
  112. Triangle action NQ (11:17 est)
     
  113. My two trades so far today.

    #1) got in on what looked like a change in trend upwards (due to such a strong upward move before the pullback- figured the down trend was over)....guessed right...

    #2) Took a pullback to a trendline after the trendline break....guessed right again

    Negatives, stops were 3 - 3.5 points on these trades and they only went for +1.25 and +2.75 so stops were set bigger than actual gains....need to improve on this.

    Here they are:

    http://i15.tinypic.com/4zoc4js.png

    http://i14.tinypic.com/4vgmi6v

    Cheers :D
     
  114. Trades 07-31-07

    Today it's a lesson on why it's important to stay neutral and trade only what you see. It's imperative to ride those winners when possible. HA Bars are very helpful in this area.

    Again, its not about being right, it's about making money. Not the case today but if I lose 5 times and win 3 and at the end of the day I'm green, job well done.

    4 Longs

    1st Home Run ridden with HA bars

    2nd Stopped out for minor gain

    3rd Stopped out

    4th Stopped out


    4 Shorts

    1st Based on double top, monstrous gain like most double tops should be played

    2nd Target barely reached as a double bottom formed

    3rd Home Run ridden with HA bars

    4th Home Run ridden with HA bars

    Notice how the doubletop/doublebottom area led to chop suey. That's my signal to stay on the sidelines.

    Total

    5 Winners
    1 Break even
    2 Losses

    Extremely profitable day and very pleased with my discipline and trading. Off to a break then I will come to the pending posts.

    Anek
     
  115. Razor,

    It's interesting that you chose the worst possible area to trade. Precisely the one I stood on the sidelines, massive congestion.

    I circled evidence of confusion and marked all the short opportunities with the arrow that you had.

    Hope it helps.
     


  116. I hear ya man, I am trying. Still managed to finish the day green $43 net. Had one loser and one winner in the afternoon.

    Seems like I am having a mental block in believing that everytime I am about to get on the trend the trend is about to end so I am always looking to get right in on the start of the next trend....not sure how to over come this....will keep plodding ahead I guess...

    Thanks for the feedback !
     
  117. Razor,

    Remember that after MASSIVE moves, uncertainty usually unfolds.

    It's actually a powerful tip :)

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  118. Anec, Here is my chart for the day. First 4 trades stopped out. Afternood was ok though. What would have kept you from the first 2 trades? The 3rd and 4th were just trying to re-enter using a tight stop. The stop I used on 20 tick charts is just too tight on the 75 tick (= to your 200). Any comments appreciated.
     
  119. here is file, I hope.
     
  120. Sorry, Chart not attaching!
     
  121. Different file type. Try again
     
  122. Anek,

    I'm very new to futures trading; however, I've traded stocks and options for years. In another post, someone mentioned you traded in the "puretick" room. Is that where you learned to trade? Would it be worth my time to get an education in one of the paid rooms? If so, which one would you recommend?

    Thanks,
    Tyler
     
  123. B,

    Not a bad job. This requires certain practice skill so definitely a good start.

    Remember to use HA bars to let the winners run, this allows you to keep accuracy below 50% with comfort.

    Attached some opportunities I see in your chart.
     
  124. Tyler,

    My style of trading is very different from Puretick. I definitely did not learn to trade there but I joined the room to ease the transition from equities to futures. Had been a daytrader for many years already.

    For newbies looking to get their feet wet it's a good environment to get started, at least do the trial, can't hurt.

    Once I realized I was in a completely different level I decided to leave the room and do things on my own. Sort of like the market and I, without distractions. No regrets.

    The head trader's style is very much different from mine and he should be able to teach you a few things or two. For more experienced traders I don't think it is the right environment.

    Anek
     
  125. The Titanic called, it just saw the YM underneath the sea. Man, they are selling it hard. (Around 200 in AH)

    Too bad I suck at swing trading :)

    Anek
     
  126. They say the best trades are the hardest to take......

    Coincidentally they offer the least heat so if you were right you will know from the start.

    You got to believe in the method and that goes for anyone reading this journal. If you don't believe in my method, by all means, don't trade it. Today I took two stop losses in a row.

    What came next was a 91 point short with minimal heat.

    Develop those skills, use sim until you do, will save some bucks until you get good at it. No shame in that....

    Anek
     
  127. Razor,

    On your first screenshot the short is simply a stop out, no escape there, it reversed and you take your loss. However, since you didn't short the ones that did work, you end up losing money for not being on top of the trend. Sooner or later they all reverse, unless it's one of those massive trending days.


    On your second screenshot, I'm not sure why you took that one. Can't see the reason.

    I marked congestion with a circle.

    Double Bottoms/Tops with horizontals.

    Arrows indicate other good places to enter.

    Anek
     
  128. And the second file....
     
  129. anek, what broker do you suggest for futures simulation? thanks
     
  130. You got me there, perhaps someone with more sim knowledge can chip in.

    Infinity ?

    Think or Swim?

    IB ?

    I don't think I got the best answer for you. Hopefully, someone helps out.

    On a side note, hard to sleep with YM down 1% in AH..... :) :D

    Anek
     
  131. If you want to simulate during live trading you can get Interactive Brokers and use something like Bracket Trader or Ninja Trader. But you really just need the data.

    If you want to trade after the market you need to buy the data from Esignal or Ensign etc.

    Good luck.
     
  132. Supposedly AHG had $17bln in borrowings, so the question is who is left holding that paper that likely is now worthless.
     
  133. Hmmm, would be cool if I could borrow $17bln.

    Think you got the wrong thread Mak :)

    Anek
     
  134. Hi FYI, the chop suey in your chart was actually forming a wolfwave. Given the approriate context, quite a reliable pattern.
     
  135. Hulk,

    Thanks for the hawk eye observation. I must say I've never been able to spot the WWs correctly. Great eye. I have a friend that can spot them out of a soup bowl. Unfortunately, I lack the skill for them. Good patterns though, no doubt.

    Anek
     
  136. Oops, sorry wrong symbol :)
     
  137. Calling it a day. Good morning for me.
     
  138. thanks
     
  139. For sim,I use unarmed book trader,just don't forget it's on/off.(IB)This also gives you good idea of how fast fills are,and the actual mechanics/making a trade.Great thread.Thanx.
     
  140. I traded the DIA today because I don't have a futures account open (yet), strictly according to AHG. I traded 500 shares to simulate 1 contract and my results: 2.91 pts and 4/5 WL. I'll take it! Note: 1.71 pts came on the last trade of the day...I picked a good day to start

    Tyler
     
  141. Had a nice day as well, did +$228. Have to believe though that things will become much harder when the moves become smaller and ranges tighter....this will be the days to see how really disciplined one can be.... ;)
     
  142. Trades for 08.01.07

    I'm exhausted, I did not sleep all night by the massive afterhour/pre-market move activity that was hard to ignore.

    After the market closed I had to take a 3 hour nap so I apologize that this chart is getting to you a little later than usual.

    However, on a positive note, I was in perfect sync with the market today. I annotated little hints that price gives us that might indicate a possible reversal or choppy move. Whenever I saw things like that I made an effort to stay on the sidelines.

    Massive profits today, more like obscene. These hard strong moves are a gift from the gods.

    Tip of the day: Make an effort to spot possible reversals/choppyness by watching erratic highs/lows.

    Longs

    6 for 6

    No losers

    Shorts

    7 for 7

    No losers

    Total

    13 for 13

    (Notice the lack of bias, roughly half and half)

    Don't despair, keep on using that sim. Your skill will ONLY get better. Learn to spot the chop, it will save you AND make you money.

    Keep on practicing, keep on reading, keep on noticing how those lows and highs develop. Don't give up. If I can do it, you can do it.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek

    PS: 199 Tick Chart, don't ask :)
     
  143. Glad to hear you some of you guys did well.

    Remember, you are JUST beginning to get your feet wet, assuming my style of trading is new for you.

    I promise you, your skill will ONLY get better.

    If you keep your discipline and your money management in check it's only a matter of time until you can mimic my performance and in many cases I'm sure, surpass it.

    Keep it simple and you will prevail.

    Anek
     
  144. Anek's Big Rule of 3

    1) Spot the Trend, it is your ONLY friend.

    Up, Down, Sideways, All over the place ? Only up or down interests us. Odds in our favor.

    2) Spot the Entry

    Do we have one ? Should we have one ? Use your tools for confirmation, not the other way around.
    Your eyes go 90% of the time on price. Specifically on those highs and lows.

    3) Spot the Chop

    This kills us and reverses us. No one is forcing you to trade as the market is always there.

    Anek
     
  145. I'm happy to see you were able to catch that big move at the close. I work during the day, so I only get to watch the market during RTH when I can steal a few minutes here and there, but happened to watching price action during that monster swing during the last 30 minutes and I was hoping you and some of the other kind folks here on ET were riding that puppy up.

    Thanks again for your generosity in posting these trades over the past couple of weeks. Your posts have inspired me! My trading approach (albeit on a simulator for now) is becoming much more simple and effective.
     
  146. Congrats Anek and thanks again for post !
     
  147. Whenever you see a solid uptrend with superb momentum let the Heikin Ashi bars guide you. Then the exit is second nature. If you stick to that simple strategy you will bag some monstrous wins whenever the opportunity presents itself if you happen to be in the trade or spot an entry.

    Glad to hear you are on the right track. All in due time.

    Anek
     
  148. Thanks, you bet...
     
  149. I'm getting a LOT of questions on stops.

    ie "Anek, what kind of stops do you use".

    Here is the answer to one PM I just replied to, figure it can help some of my friends so posting it here.


    ...........


    Notice how I use stochastic crossing for entries. I feel that the
    stop should be large enough to handle noise and not much else. Since
    you are using the SIM I will let you be the judge of this.
    It's very dependent on the type of trader, the better your
    aim/precision the smaller your stop will get in time.

    Start with 12-15 and adjust accordingly. No need to rush, polish those skills.

    Good to hear from you.

    ..............

    Bottomline is that as you get more experienced your entries will be more optimal. For now, stay on the sim and you be the judge of what your entries require.

    You need just enough to handle noise, anything else and it's prob not the type of trade you should be taking.

    Aside from recognizing the current trend or lack of this is probably the most critical area of my method. Unfortunately, it is extremely dependent on entry and the trader. Use sim to take statistics.

    For instance....

    - What do the good trades usually need based on my entries ?

    - Will a bigger stop had made this losing trade a winning one ? Is it worth it based on my targets ? Will I be deviating from the initial premise to take the trade ?

    You need to ask yourself these questions and take notes. Very important.

    I will rather pass on a trade that requires a big stop than take it. As a last resort, minimal car size then. In the end, if you miss it, so be it, odds are that the next day, market is there waiting for you to try again :)

    It's a risk management game.

    Anek
     
  150. Excellent info, thanks Anek ! :D


     
  151. AHG tough today... 2/5 on the DIA +.21. Could've done better if I had tried to really scalp, but instead I tried to ride the microtrends and would end up getting stopped. Oh well, at least it was a positive day in a choppy market.

    Tyler
     
  152. Hi,

    Only 3 trades here NQ, 2 winners but small.....ended up +$36 on the day, better than a loss :D
     
  153. Trades for 08-02-07

    Tough day, chop land until the later afternoon. Moves were not as strong as yesterday, except late afternoon.

    If you broke even, had small losses or small wins today, give yourself an applause.

    If you made money, you are getting it and I'm proud of you. Means you are trading with caution and taking only what should be taken, or most of it.

    Longs

    1st Winner
    2nd Winner
    3rd Loser full stop
    4th BE
    5th Winner
    6th Loser full stop, bad stop fill too!
    7th Grand slam !
    8th BE

    Shorts

    1st Winner
    2nd BE
    3rd The one i forgot to mark with the vertical line, full stop
    4th Winner
    5th BE
    6th Winner
    7th Winner
    8th Winner
    9th Full stop

    Total

    9 Winners
    4 Losers
    4 BE, due to commissions I will count as 1 full Loser

    ...so 9 Winners and 5 Losers

    Circles identify chop evidence. Funny how yesterday I spoke so much about the chop, i guess I was expecting it after so many strong move days.

    Exercise for today, work on spotting the chop on today's chart, yes, again :)

    Hint of the day: Study stoch crosses with the trend, check my entries :) It's a good indicator, fast too, just need to know WHEN to take those crosses. They don't always help, obviously.

    Real tough day unless you had full focus of those highs and lows.

    Anek
     
  154. Guys and Gals,

    I would like to talk about Winners and Losers.

    There are only five possible outcomes in trading.

    1-)Big Losses

    2-)Small losses

    3-)Big Winners

    4-)Small Winners

    5-)Break even

    Stay away from the first one and the rest will EMBRACE you.

    When the system fails to produce profits it is probably because the market had no direction and nothing but reversals. When this happens you WILL have a losing day even if following the system.

    We have yet to see this but when it comes I will most likely post a losing day.

    However, it will most likely fall in the small losses category and that is what is all about.

    Remember....

    If there are no 2 higher lows and no 2 higher highs, it's not an uptrend.

    If there are no 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs, it's not a downtrend.

    Don't anticipate (yet), stick to the plan.

    Stay with the plan, work on those skills, this is good stuff.

    Those that has seen me trade live know what I can do. This is most of what I do, nothing else, no magic, no tricks. And last but not least, I'm giving you the tools, the samples, the manual on how to do it.

    Stay disciplined, practice, and help me make a great thing better.

    Let me see you work on those skills, show me that you can do it, I ask for nothing else in return.

    Anek
     
  155. Thanks Anek for the continued motivation and info, hugely appreciated.

    As a note I have been trading with a completely blank chart accept for price bars and heiken bars. I will draw in fibs and trendlines at times but that is it, zero indicators. Do you recommend putting on the stoch and using that for entries or if I am breakeven / winning small for right now then try and learn with price only ?

    Cheers,
    Ray :D

     
  156. Razor,

    I recommend that you find one and only one tool to help you find optimal entries.

    It is IMPERATIVE that you keep it simple or you will lose focus.

    I use stochastic crosses when I feel a trend has been determined with an opportunity to enter with low risk. You can clearly see this on my charts, on most anyway.

    I use Heikin Ashi to adjust my trailing stops/targets or otherwise known as riding the winners.

    I use trendlines to gauge the big picture and Fibonacci for prediction.

    As it is now, I don't recommend much else. However, if any reader has found a tool to enhance the system by all means, share it and I will promise to test it. If it helps I will not only thank you but will use it and recommend it.

    Anek
     
  157. Ok this question merits it's own post.

    How do you feel about averaging down ?

    I feel it's the devil, and you should never ever do it. It's a recipe for disaster and I recommend everyone following my system to stay as far away from it as you possibly can.

    Hope I'm 100% clear on this.

    Anek
     
  158. Anek,

    Wondered if you might make a few notes on my attached chart. Last two days I have gotten run over picking up nickels infront of an Exxon tanker truck.

    Shorted one rally too many, last hour especially turned a profitable day into a loss.

    Shorted rallies..even though it seemed like a congestion pattern.

    Thanks mate!
     
  159. Here is what I see.....

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     



  160. I came across this thread last night and have been scanning through the posts. What you are doing is remarkably similar to my method. So much so, if I didn't know better, I'd say someone has been looking over my shoulder!

    Main differences are I don't use any indicators, although I did spend years trying prove their worth. I simply found I could trade better without them. In addition, I use regular OHLC bars set to constant volume data and monitor market internals for strength of trend. To me, HA distorts the price action, especially on reversal pattern bars, which is my mainstay for entries and stop placement.

    All in all though, your method and mine are built on the same principle of HH/HL/LH/LL's. As such, I thought I would drop by and applaud you for sharing a very simple, yet quite lucrative style of extracting money out of the markets each day. I'm always amazed as to how few traders grasp the concept of price action being the closest thing to the holy grail they will ever encounter. People like you are far and few between, and those following your thread will be well served if they decide to follow the generous sharing of your wisdom. Well done, sir!

    Regards,

    st
     
  161. ST,

    Thank you for the kind words, I will study your suggestions in detail considering you trade using a similar approach.

    Appreciate the input.

    Anek
     

  162. No suggestions intended, just comparing the slight differences. :D

    Keep doing what works for you.

    st
     
  163. I'm really happy you posted, gives extra encouragement to those following me that this approach is a good starting point for winning on a consistently basis.

    As far as the HA bars I use them for the runners not for the entries. In that respect I find them valuable but I do see what you meant, for entries they are most definitely counter productive. They go red when you should be looking to go long hehe

    Anek
     
  164. Whew! Ended up a few points, but only from luck. Quite disapointed with my stop setting today, and not taking profits at resistance/support levels on such a range day. Kept holding them waiting for that rocket blast. Good to hear Anec's comments, makes me feel a little better.
     
  165. For now you should try fill your cup with drops.

    There are many areas that need to be polished, therefore, I don't feel you should concentrate on all of them at the same time. Could be a bit confusing and frustrating at first.

    Perhaps this PRIORITY list can help.

    (In order of importance)

    1) Discipline (above everything else)

    It makes no sense to develop a set of rules if you are not going to follow them. Nothing tops this.

    2) Trend/Reversal/Chop Recognition

    The real substance of my system. Must excel at trend/chop/reversal recognition. Once experienced enough, sometimes even (dare I say it) prediction. If you want to succeed with AHG learn to avoid calling absolute tops and bottoms.

    3) Prudent and intelligent stops.

    Risk management, hello ? :) You don't know for sure if the trade is going to work, with absolute certainty never, you are only taking a trade that LOOKs like its going to work. ....but what if you are wrong ? I'm wrong on trades every single day, for that alone your stop should be prudent.

    4) Entry refinement

    Strategic entries, very important. This allows your stops to be smaller AND your targets wider. Unfortunately, be prepared MENTALLY to miss extremely good trades that refuse to give you a good fill because well, they had no plans on stopping for you!

    5) Exit refinement

    The fine line between a good trader and a great trader, sometimes even a master trader.

    They are all extremely important and #5 makes the difference between profitability and abundance but it's last for a reason. Once the basics are out of the way all your energy should prob go on #4 and #5. I feel I have mastered 1-4, #5 is a tough one.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     

  166. The swing high/low method works, and it works in all markets, as price is always oscillating, and therefore, is always trending. Of course, the earth-is-flat crowd will try and convince everyone that trend doesn't exist, so I'll thank them now for taking the other side of our trades and leave it at that. :D
     
  167. Anek,

    Thanks for the notes on the XOM chart, AHG v1 LL/LH paid off today...+485.
     
  168. Glad to hear, the sector, is bleeding.

    Anek
     
  169. Lower lows lower highs I see longs around this time of the massacre and Im cracking the whip :)

    Loving it !

    Anek
     
  170. 4 trades, Net $28 :D

    3 winning days in a row but something tells me I should have done much better than this....still having the mental block that when I get in the trend will end.....so silly because of course this will happen sometimes but will it happen greater than 50% of the time, doubtful.....that should be all that matters if I book bigger gains than loses.....oh well, a new week awaits us :D

    Have a good weekend all and thanks again Anek !
     
  171. Same here. Up for the week. Gotta follow Anec's advice more closely, especially regarding using only 1 indicator. Trying to use others as filters really does create confusion in my little mind. Confusion leads to hesitancy, hesitancy leads to bad entries/exits which lead to losses, which lead to confusion.....
     
  172. Trades for 08.03.07

    Hard to type with the current excitement. I get goosebumps on days like today. Anyway, enough chit chat, to the details.....

    Evidence of congestion in circles on chart attached.

    Longs

    1st Winner

    2nd *A MISTAKE* there was a lower high, stochs were crossing down. I have no idea what I was thinking. Closed it for BE as soon as I noticed my mistake. Whenever you make an obvious mistake close the trade ASAP don't even think twice about it.

    3rd Stopped out

    4th Stopped out

    1 Winner
    2 Losers
    1 BE

    Total: 1 for 2

    Geez, think longs were not working well today, no real structure. I wonder why :) Let's switch to the dark side, shall we?

    Shorts

    1st Winner
    2nd Winner
    3rd Winner
    4th Stopped out
    5th Winner
    6th Winner
    7th Winner
    8th Stopped out
    9th Stopped out
    10th Grand Slam
    11th Grand Slam
    12th Grand Slam

    3 Losers
    9 Winners

    Total: 10 Winners 5 losers 1 BE

    Notice all the losers I had. Do I care ? Do they bother me ? Do I feel bad ?

    To be blunt, I don't care, I expect them and I don't fear them as I know how to control them. You lose, you stand up, and you fight back, over and over again. Because you believe in yourself, in your trading, in your system.

    Win some, lose some, just like a champion in boxing, at the end of the fight, what you want is the decision, not perfection. You can shoot for perfection, but lets be realistic.

    What can I say, I love days like today, I trade for days like today.

    They are special and extremely profitable if you just follow the trend. God knows how many contrarians called bottoms during the hard slam down, and hard it was!

    Best summer I've witnessed, they are usually dull this is far away from it. This is wonderful, this is just like heaven!

    Anek
     
  173. Can't argue with that.

    The fact of that matter is that if you guys are getting small losses/breakevens/small wins WITHOUT actually grasping the full concept of the method and that only means that the future can only get brighter as your discipline and skills improve.

    Here is what I'm doing as far as mechanics in a concise manner.

    - Study Highs and lows

    - If a trend form, examine stoch crosses for entry.

    - Once in a trade I gauge S/R for stops/exists and ride the winners with the HA bars if the trade gets solid momentum like those shorts I took at the end today.

    Rinse and repeat.

    Simple don't make it complicated, as you say, it will only lead to confusion.

    As long as the rules hold, in and out, in and out. Filling the cup with drops.

    Last but not least remember that I am above else, a trend follower scalper.

    Anek
     
  174. I know EXACTLY what you mean, I know cause I've been there in the past.

    It's hard to get long when the immediate price action is down but if the trend that matters is up, then the bigger picture should win, no?

    Study past charts, you have MASSIVE samples at hand. Convince yourself that it's the right way to go, then and only then is that you will have enough faith to pull the trigger comfortably when the time comes. Don't let losses misguide you, they are inevitable, but if you do it right I promise you, you win at the end.

    Examine my trades. Am I doing something different than described in the original AHG post ?

    Am I somehow bending the rules ?

    You tell me!

    Anek
     
  175. Cheers Anek for the response.....I guess I just need more time, I think the reason I am having the mental block is becuase the markets have been so 'trending' with great follow through the last couple of weeks and I think I am telling myself that when we get back to tighter ranges that I will be getting whip sawed over and over again as just when a trend looks like it is forming we head back the other way.....I think after I trade through some periods like this and see that it is still possible to have a breakeven / small winning day during these times and still book some big win days 2 - 3 days per week that maybe the mental block will lift.....only time will tell....anyway, my head is up and I am plodding ahead :D




     
  176. Razor,

    Take all the time that you need, I mean it. No sense in rushing this.

    BTW, when we get a massive day of consolidation the trick is to say....

    "No 2 lower highs, no 2 lower lows, I'm staying put."

    "No 2 higher highs, no 2 higher lows, I'm staying put"

    Sometimes the best trade is no trade.

    ....and when they do happen if it reverses you, so be it, take your small loss and move on.

    However, statistically speaking, trend patterns outnumber reversals so in terms of numbers you win at the end :)

    And guess what, if the reversal is strong enough, you will be there riding it too !

    As you say, Cheers! :D

    Anek
     
  177. Makes perfect sense ! :D

    Now go enjoy your weekend ! :D

    Cheers,
    Ray :D


     

  178. If you should be interested, here is a marked chart of what I was looking at today.

    st
     
  179. Nice Stealth,

    One thing about the ES as well.....it can handle huge size with minimal slippage, freakin NQ slips a tick on 1 contract in fast markets....sucks but for now it is the cheapest per point mover out there until I can build consistency.

    Thanks for the chart :D

     
  180. Stealth,

    I see the similarities, no doubt. Good trades.

    Razor,

    The days of the YM and I are numbered but since it was the first e-mini I ever traded it's hard to let go.

    Have not decided yet if I'm going to ES or NQ. Definitely not to ER2 with the upcoming transition from CME to ICE.

    Anek
     



  181. I don't trade huge size, about 10 is my limit. I was trading the ER exclusively up until about three weeks ago, but the recent volatility within it was placing my stops too far out for my rules. One thing I might mention is to continuously compare different contracts with each other and trade the one that currently gives the best bank for the buck . Many people become married to a certain contract, when in reality, they can and do change in the way they trade.

    I am not going to rain on Anec's thread. I just wanted to share what I am doing and how close his method is to mine. I've been involved in the markets close to 30 years, and he is the first here on ET that I believe actually has a clue. Of course, I am a bit biased! :D Nonethless, listen to him, you will not regret it IF you are indeed serious about being one of the 5% that become successful in this business.

    st
     
  182. Go grab a beer man ! LOL, seriously, I am on my way out for a beer or two but if you want to build real size ES is the ticket IMHO (but then again what do I know :D

    Cheers :D

     
  183. Hi Stealth,

    Your experience and input is welcome here I am sure, please keep posting and your points are noted regarding getting stuck on one particular emini.....a question I have though....

    .....if one is and has been consistently profitable for a while why not trade ES and over time build contract size....why stay at 10 etc ?.....I mean from what I have read one can do 100 - 300 ES contracts a time with 1 tick slippage ? Sounds like a lot of cars but if one is consistently profitable and account is building even with withdrawls why not add contracts over time ?....just a thought, ok I am off now for a couple brews :D




     
  184. The drinks are ready Belhaven's Stout is what I like. However, got my kids all over me playing anything from Nintendo Wii to Xbox 360 so I'm playing with my journal as they develop their "skills" in video games.

    Once they hit the sack, I will surely start the weekend with an "up" note as I examine charts :p

    Definitely welcome Stealth and anyone else with positive thinking into the journal. Companionship, friendship, education, sharing and good times is what it's all about.

    Off to kick some butt in Viva Piñata!

    Anek
     
  185. Anek,

    Regarding your 3rd Short trade today, I noticed you took it after only one LL and one LH. Was this a mistake or do you sometimes take this kind of trade rather than wait for the stated two LL's and two LH's?
     
  186. Stealth, your comment on Anec is right on. I have played around for about 20 years with trading as a hobby. Now becoming serious, and I fully appreciate the what Anec is doing. Very rare indeed.

    Anec, On the first congestion area you circled today, it looks like there were a couple of trades that I might have been sucked into.
    What Kept you out. Hope the chart attaches.
     
  187. Not exactly sure probably counted the consolidation as neutral and kept on with the trend down as I saw yet new lows from the previous trend.

    Good catch.

    Anek
     
  188. Stealth, It appears you must be using about a 200 tick chart or minute equivalent. At least that is what is seems to be on my IB data feed which is not true tick. And given that time frame it looks like stops might be up to 30 points. Is that about right?
    But with runs like that last short, who cares!. Thanks for posting.
     
  189. 1st arrow

    Probably the low pivot (cyan) plotting higher. I think the high there got a bit higher than it was supposed to in comparison to the previous free fall.

    Definitely sign of possible reversal or chop to come.

    2nd arrow

    Probably the low pivot making a double bottom and not a higher low. When the market makes a low like that you really want a higher low and a higher high like on the first long of the day I took. Got to be extra careful at LODs/HODs, traders are nervous around those areas.

    ...and sometimes its just pure luck of entering a good trade or not entering a bad trade.

    Anek
     
  190. Stealth, I also use ensign, could you please explain what function was used to create the LL,LH,HH,HL notations on the chart. Thank You, Dave.
     
  191. *Upcoming Change*
    ----------------------

    Starting next week I am officially moving to the ES.

    It might take me sometime to adjust but better now than later.

    YM liquidity and bad fills are getting on my nerves lately. I had a few stop market orders today that got filled for 4 tick against me. Simply not acceptable anymore.

    Have not decided which tick size or volume bar size I will proceed with but I guess I will know soon.

    Officially I'm saying my farewell to the YM unless the ES spanks me in ways that do not excite me :)

    Anek
     
  192. I am reading your logs..wonderfull work.

    If somebdy can hele in duplicating stochastic like you hav done on your chart. I am using Qouetracker and unable t create simmilar thing. i have ayed with lot of there setup ut dosn't replicate your setup.

    One more thing , i am also watching for blck tades and tick hook along with the signal generated from AHG system.

    I think stochastic and MACD combined are great tool, if you have patience.

    Still debating should use 199 tick or 89 tick chart.
     
  193. Thanks again to Anekdoten for a generous and helpful thread. Regarding the stochastics question from billdobson1972, I am sure the charts that have been posted are from Tradestation and their feed. Judging from your question, you may be using Quotetracker with another feed, probably Interactivebroker (IB) ? Please note that IB is not a tick by tick feed, so that on a tick chart, it will sometimes look very different between QT/IB than TS or other true tick based feed. Here is the TS inputs for slow stochastics :
    Code:
    inputs: 
    	PriceH( High ),  
    	PriceL( Low ), 
    	PriceC( Close ), 
    	StochLength( 14 ), 
    	SmoothingLength1( 3 ), { used to slow FastK to FastD = SlowK }
    	SmoothingLength2( 3 ), { used to slow FastD to SlowD }
    	SmoothingType( 1 ), { pass in 1 for Original, 2 for Legacy }
    	OverSold( 20 ), 
    	OverBought( 80 ) ; 
     
  194. thanks for your help

    I am still studying and as of now i am using etrade..i am planning to switch to IB. I will be looking at markets only from 9.30 - 10.30 and again from 1 p.m - 3.0 p.m... will be making very few calls ...less than 2 trade /day.. thats my goal...



    One of the guys in this thread posted a very good chart which shows the latest swing high or swing low ..now i am trying to develop paintbars for that logic..

    I also find ticks/Trin/intermarket relationship/ Block trades(trades gretaer than 200K on spy) to be very good tells...

    this is a great approach ..need to fine tune the entry & exit - so market internals grasp would make or break this system
     
  195. Awesome news ! All the best and just imagine what you can achieve when you groove with the ES and build those contracts 20, 30, 50, 100, 300 .... :)

    Cheers :D

     
  196. I have been contemplating starting a journal for a couple of weeks now called "Old Fashioned Trading" or something similiar and then I ran across this thread and see that you have already done it. Our trading approaches are almost identical except that I am still using time bars. Pullbacks in a trend, double bottoms and double tops. What else do you need? I use only trendlines and a couple of moving averages although I have used the stochastic off and on. I have seen you mention 50% fib retracement and sto crossover as an entry. Which one are you using now? I am also wondering if you have taken anything from Proflogic as theres a lot of parallels. In any case I would like to join in the discussion. Great thread. A rarity on this board.
     
  197. Just a word on this if this if it's an index system . Not sure how many trades it takes, and if it's base on charts only, but BEWARE !
    Il will say this: TA on intraday charts is pretty much worthless and in the current market forget it . You've got to have something else than TA alone to even have a chance to survive.

    Daytrading on TA (S/R, patterns, oscillators have they ever worked as standalone?) is DEAD ! There is nothing there. A couple of years ago yeah you could make money more than 50% of the time if you were really good.

    Don't waste your time trading intraday and don't dream about making it as a homebased daytrader. It's the biggest pipe dream/ scam invented by the brokerage industry.
     
  198. Wow. Pretty broad generalizations. Obviously youve had some bad experiences in the past. I completely disagree with your comments but I'm sure it will do nothing to change your opinion. Live and let live is my motto.:)
     
  199. Kicking,

    Beautiful, just what these guys need, a typical vile ET comment.

    Pretty negative sentiment you got there considering all these weeks I've been describing how to squeeze profits from the market on a daily basis.

    Most daytraders fail, I give you that. If you are on the 95% group perhaps you should be listening to the 5% and learn instead of staying a non believer for life.

    Basically you are saying that 100% of daytraders lose money in the long run.

    Or maybe just maybe, you are simply in the 5% and are afraid that someone in your group simply wants to help!

    How about you prove me wrong instead of dumping absurd generalizations on my journal ?

    Anek

     
  200. Welcome aboard Gary.

    I don't use anything else besides what has been described in the journal. In fact, I've been slowly trimming down the charts. Would not be surprised if soon I end up just using price action indicators like support/resistance, hh/lh/ll/hl pivots with trendlines and nothing else.

    Anek

     
  201. Thanks, my biggest problem with MACD is that it is EXTREMELY slow and basically any lagging indicator will do nothing but slow you down or report the past. I recommend you trade without it but if it helps you by all means, use it.

    Try to stick with price action based indicators like high/low swings, support/resistant lines, etc.

    The only one I've been using is stochastics to aim my entry, as soon as I figure out how to beat them they are out the window too.

    Anek
     
  202. "Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication".

    There are plenty of wornout threads on the timeworn topic on whether or not TA works...this isnt one of them; lets keep our eye on the AHG ball and its continued development.
     
  203. Anek, Good response to the neysayer. I was wondering how long it would take them to stick their heads up.

    On eliminating the sto for an indicator, I do not know if this would be an improvement, but I find that years of viewing the sto as an ob/os indicator still influences my being able to use it strictly as a crossover instrument for entries. I'm sure you have looked at everything many times, but I'm kind of liking the use of just a 10 period sma. Using a close over the sma as an entry, if the HH/LL business is all in order. Keeps my subconscious from saying "Hey Don! You can't buy this crossover!, The sto is at 85, way overbought!, Odds must be against it!" Takes a long time to undo bad trading habits and concepts. Sure makes a clean chart too. Spooky clean!
     
  204. Ya I had been postponing the inevitable for so long but no more.

    I will probably very cautious at first as I get used to the big change. You will probably see a decrease in the number of trades as I get comfortable with stops and targets.

    And yes the plan is to be able to continue the increase in contract size by avoiding slippage, absurd comission and embracing liquidity.

    So long YM.

    Anek
     
  205. B,

    I study the stochastic crosses and been slowly paying less attention to its oversold/overbought signals. Sometimes I pay attention to divergences but I should not as I don't believe they are that solid signals. Yep, a little confused there myself.

    You don't need to use MA crossovers if you keep those eyes (assuming you got two) :p on price action and the high/low pivot areas. In fact, many backtesting studies suggest MA crossovers do not work in the long run. Once again, price action is what you need, it's superior, nothing beats it.

    Trust me, they don't work as good as price, you can be faster than that. Which is exactly why I intend to eliminate stochastics at one point.

    Part of the trick here is speed. You want to be faster than the rest and the ONLY way I know how to accomplish that is by following price action and nothing else.

    Anek
     
  206. I think you will like ES. I find the stops more reliable than YM. This thread has made me take a look at heikin-ashi charts as staying with a move is one of my weaknesses. Do you simply exit when you get a change of color?
     
  207. When to exit is a loaded topic and perhaps merits an entire book.

    For now I will give you the following suggestions.

    - If long before last known resist area
    - If short before last known support area
    - If scaling out and trade happens to break out in your favor then watch the next time it makes a HH or a LL depending if you are short or long.
    - HA bars help me determine VISUALLY in a quickly manner if I should trail my stop because momentum is there.

    ....and last but not least, learn to read momentum. This can be a powerful thing, when price is on fire and not looking back, there is no reason to leave the roller coaster, ride it until you see hesitation. Once again, price action, price has mood swings, behavior, characteristics, learn to read them. It's very valuable.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  208. I'm here sitting with my Stout(s) and my ES charts considering 610 tick charts as working area for next week with a 4x anchor chart for meaningful S/R areas to avoid congestion and understand the big picture.

    Any suggestions related to chart size and/or ES characteristics this would be the time. My experience with ES is usually limited to swing trades.

    Thank you.

    Anek
     
  209. Just studied the daily ES chart to get familiar with what's going on in this "new" territory. The actual trend is 100% down no doubt about it.

    Low of Friday looks like minor support from 03/07. How and if it bounces from here will be interesting to watch. If we get more downside the next support area is very much important, 1400 + psychological. If we get down there I expect some consolidation, highly doubt that gives up without a massive bull fight. Now, if that breaks and support becomes resistance it could get very ugly for the market.

    No bias just doing homework.

    Anek
     
  210. bmw, I think Stealth Trader said he is using constant tick bars and from looking at the chart, it looks to be the ES 10,000 contracts per bar. It's something ensign software does, but apparently very few other packages.

    To whoever was asking about similarities with Proflogic's methods, constant volume bars is something he espouses I believe. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

    Anek, great great thread. I am an avid reader and fan.
     
  211. X,

    Thanks.

    Here is a screenshot of 10,000 volume bars for ES in Tradestation; I must say, not bad!

    Look at that massive downtrend during the second half of the trading day. That was free money, free free free :)

    Anek
     
  212. Looks to be about as smooth as a baby's bottom compared to constant volume bars in the YM...
     
  213. Here is a HYPOTHETICAL chart of how I would have traded ES on Friday using my rules.

    Arrow direction = Short or Long

    Yellow Cross = Stopped out

    Last short prob a BE, too close to tell.

    Anek
     
  214. interesting..interesting....very good...i am studying SPY with 200K share constant volume... i have quote tracker with etrade feed...

    will like to move..shat would be a good suggestion for action replay..i watch live markets for 3 hrs daily...

    any software which does market replay...

    whats your thought on market delta..if not why not..need to get into your brain..why you reject it... Dr Brett contantly approves of this ask/bid and delta shift theory

    also why not look for market internals
     
  215. I did the trial on Market Delta awhile back but could not see any real advantage to it that is above and beyond what you see on DOM but I know a couple of people who seem to like it. Sometimes I think it is counterproductive to look at too much. If you have traded for awhile and absorbed losses over a period of time the mind starts looking for an excuse not to act and the more you look at the more excuses you can come up with. At least this has been my experience. I have gradually pared down my data to the bare minimum.
     
  216. B,

    I agree with Gary, I like to keep things simple to be able to concentrate on what really matters, price.

    Anek
     
  217. Upon closer examination and a bit less Stouts in my blood stream that last short would had reached target based on the "cover before next support rules".

    Anek
     
  218. what are the enry rules for the last entry.

    1. do u enter on 3 rd bar or 2nd bar close. whats the target and stop for emini sp 500.

    will be good to see if it works for s&p....

    u did not have stchs on last charts so dont know how u entered trade...did u enter on 14.59 bar close
     
  219. B,

    The different alternatives for entry are discussed throughout the journal. In this case since it was just a simulation I basically estimated based on price action, not an exact simulation by any means.

    However, it's a good exercise to do so without a single indicator, the results will surprise you. In fact, you must be able to do so without a single indicator as the key to the strategy is HH HL LL LH not some oscillator.

    Of course you need to be realistic, when it reverses, it was a stop, don't cheat when doing so. The goal is to mimic the entries in real time. I used to do this countless times with multiple instruments, it definitely improves your skills on following price action and spotting the chop.

    Anek
     
  220. Enjoying the helpful discussion so far. I wonder if switching to ES at this time would be much better than YM, considering the noise that just came into this game. Be careful out there everybody: http://futurepathtrading.com/content/view/362/69/

     
  221. Have you ever taken the time to determine what happens to price, once you've been stopped out? Maybe you'd be better off hitting the REVERSE button rather than the EXIT button.

    After all, the market is telling you you're on the wrong side.
     
  222. Thanks for the link. When the ES becomes jumpy the YM is definitely not in tranquility. In fact, in my studies I found the ES to be more "trendy". No conclusions yet, soon though...

    Anek
     
  223. Alpine,

    I have not done enough studies to determine that but if I had to take a wild guess I would say there are more chances of choppy action developing before a new trend. If the chances favor choppy action vs a complete reversal the chop could most probably chop your head off :eek:

    Good question for a complete study though, point dully noted.

    Anek
     
  224. Duly, not dully, sorry about that ;)


    ES has been uptrending in a calmly fashion in afterhours. Watching carefully on 500 share bars. Little rest for tomorrow and off we go....

    Anek
     


  225. I have studied this in depth and your thoughts are correct. Reversing almost always ends up getting stopped out at a loss, as directional momentum is fading at that point. Best to wait until price shows you once again which way it wants to go before re-entering.

    st
     


  226. If I may,

    Anec, note tradestation does not build constant volume charts correctly. Search "constant volume charts/bars" here on ET for more information.

    For you tick users, also note that Globex began aggregating tick data some time ago, so you are not looking at true tick by tick data any longer. You should ask yourself which of that data you are willing to omit from your chart when using fast tick settings and are reading OCHL on each bar as your set up for entry/exit.

    For those who asked about my volume chart, I first began using constant volume when Ensign implemented it into their program. I would switch back to tick charts and then compare them to the CV charts. In the end, I decided on CV and re-trained my brain to read them. At that point I didn't truly understand why I liked CV better, I just knew the price action seemed clearer to me. It wasn't until I later came across a "Proflogic" thread here on ET and learned that he was the moving force behind these volume bars and the reasoning that the light bulb went off.

    To everyone, in my opinion, if your charting program doesn't offer true constant volume bars, I would use one that did. To not use a tool that is available for no other reason that "my charting doesn't provide it" is not a professional mindset. If you have used them and decided they were not for you, that is another matter, but I fail to see how that could be using an open mind. In summary, tick data is no longer valid, time charts were your grandfathers charts (what does time have to do with price intraday?), range bars do not show true price action, HA distorts price and goes against the theory of using price action as your set ups. No suggestions , just something for you to ponder, and as always, your mileage may vary. Do your own homework! :D


    st
     

  227. IMO, let price take you out; as long as price is making HH,HL, or vice versa, stay in the trade with stop placed slightly above the high bar of your entry swing H/L. At the next swing H/L place stop just above/below that swing and so on. The first conflicting swing is the exit. You will only get a slice out of the middle of the run with this method, but you will almost always catch those huge moves like we had Friday afternoon and get several good moves in between, depending on the range.

    st
     



  228. First, my accountant disagrees with you. :D

    Second, I am sorry to hear about your being a failure. (Actually I am not, but if it makes you feel better......)

    Third, I believe you are on the wrong thread. The "earth-is'flat" thread is two doors down.


    st
     

  229. Those can be labeled using either pesavento patterns, auto trends, or DYO. A setting between 3-5 works well on the ES.

    Note that any labeling of swing highs and lows are going to be delayed AND (very important) the one being formed can change.

    These labels are only good for looking back for S/R, not trade entries.
     

  230. How many contracts one trades is a personal decision. My belief is to never trade more contracts than your are willing to risk assuming 100% loss. If you are trading 100 contracts on $500 margin each, and your internet goes down or the computer crashes, and the market goes against you, and it will, Murphy's law gurantees it..........can you take the hit?

    Do the math on how much leverage you are using on 300 contracts. I understand that everything is relative in theory, but trading huge size becomes more difficult from both a psychological and a money management issue. Compounding is the road to riches, diversifying is the path to keeping those riches.

    st
     

  231. I've learned that 99% of the people are too willing to follow some self-proclaimed guru who either failed as a trader and now provides "guidance", designed some wiggly line on a chart and then wrote a book about it, or both. Anything other than price IMO is nothing more than voodoo. Anek is one of very few that seems to grasp that simple, yet powerful, concept.

    I rarely, if ever become involved in these journal threads, simply because of the nonsense everyone wishes to cling to. Thinking logically seems to have gone by the way side, and I find myself having little patience with these voodoo chasers. Anek has chosen to share a solid approach to trading, and he should be commended for it. Few understand what he is perfecting, and even fewer share that knowledge once they discover it.

    st
     

  232. The 10k cv chart is simular in nature to a 250 tick IB data chart.

    My hard emergency stops for the ES placed with entry order is three points. Stop is then immediately set two ticks above/below high/low bar of swing point entered in normal market conditions.

    st
     
  233. Two shorts so far this morning. First one stopped b/e. Second hit target.
     

  234. Try a 1000 CV chart on the YM. Smoothes things right up!

    st
     
  235. Stealth,

    When you take a Short and you're waiting for that next HH - HL combination to take you out of the trade, don't you get chopped up on small range days of say 7 - 10 pts.?
     
  236. Heres my chart for the two trades. Enter on break of trendline, target lod.
     


  237. Once I realize we are in chop, shown by first conflicting swing, I then trade the range until that range is broken. Those are easy money trades with close stops. Personally, I like range bound days because of the excellent risk/reward factor and the fact that once the range is broken, the resulting move is typically a large one. I thought I posted this earlier, perhaps it was in another thread. If not, my apologies for not being more clear.

    st

    In edit, two 2 tick stop outs this morning and one 4 point win. Very bearish looking at this point in time, but sitting on support.
     
  238. What about in the present conditions? Kind of hairy when that swing hi/lo is 4-6 points away from your normal entry points. Of course the reward is proportionately greater but it takes some getting used to.:)
     

  239. I am not sure I am following what you are asking. I use a standard three bar reversal, which "usually" identifies a swing being made in progress.

    Basically, what we have is three prior confirmed swings in the same direction. Current momentum and direction is then established and the set up is now on the table. A fourth swing is needed for entry and is 'assumed' to be in progress when a three bar reversal appears to be setting up. I then wait for the first bar out of that 3 bar pattern (fourth bar) to begin building and then breaks the third bar of the 3 bar pattern in the direction of the reversal pattern by one tick. At that instant I hit the ladder at the price approximate to the center of the third bar. If order is hit, I then move the stop down to two ticks above/below the center (high) bar of the three bar reversal pattern.

    In summary, the entry signal is when the fourth or fifth bar gives a one tick break of the third bar of the 3 bar pattern in the direction of the reversal pattern, but actual buy/sell is placed from the middle of the third bar.

    The only reason I have an initial 3.0 point stop set is because I use a ladder to place the trades which are preset to bracket buy/sell, stop, and target simultaneously. The 3.0 stop is nothing more than an emergency hard stop if the market turns before I get my bearings on the trade or have a computer failure (note, not all instruments accept preset global stops). A target is set at 3 points for no other reason than if price takes off and then abruptly reverses, I at least got a profit out of the trade, maybe. Rarely, if ever, is the preset stop/target ever left in place as it was placed once the trade is in progress.

    I have enclosed an attachment of todays ES 10k CV chart from around 11:30 to 12:30. No cherry picking, just another average trading day as close to real time as I am able to do. This is the keys to the bank vault. I do this day in and day out and have nothing to prove, I am simply sharing what I have learned over the years as you caught me in a good mood! :D When I read thirty page threads on how it is impossible to net one point a day on the ES, and then they post charts with 20 different conflicting indicators on each one, all I can do is shake my head in disbelief.

    One thing I might add is this method works on all time frames, day trade, swing trade, or long term. Price has no aversion to time. I notice some of you are using very fast charts. If you are struggling with this method, slow your charts down to allow your brain time to process the information. If you can't read a daily chart instantaneously, don't expect to be able to scalp successfully on a 1 minute chart. Learn to crawl before you walk, and then learn to run. This system, as simple as it is, takes a lot of screen time and concentration to master.

    All right folks, this is Aneks thread and I don't wish to step on his toes. He is on the right track, for those who decide to follow him, the payoff should be well worth the effort. For the naysayers or those too lazy to put the screen time in, keep funding your account from your day job. Anek and I can always use the extra money! :D


    st
     




  240. Ooops, forgot the attachment.

    To the OP of my response, if I failed to answer what it was you were asking, I don't understand the question as posed.

    Another quick point, if price moves in my direction 5-6 ticks (ES), I will then move the stop to BE +1. Note that I do get stopped out quite often, but rarely have a loss more than 2-3 points, which the numerous BE +1 more than make up for over the course of time.

    Once again, preservation of capital is the goal, profit is secondary.

    st
     

  241. Once again............
     
  242. Basically I was just asking if the present volatility had changed your normal pattern of trading. Thanks for the detailed explanation of your method. I will look it over this afternoon.
     

  243. Yes, I was trading the ER2, but with this recent volatility, stops were having to be placed outside of my rule based targets, and or, I was getting my stops hit way too often. The ER2 was previously giving more bang for the buck, but the ES in this recent activity has been doing as well with better manageability.

    I base my rules on $10,000 for each contract regardless of what margins are being offered. The most I allow is 1.5% loss for the stop per contract. So to answer your question, if any trade, no matter what the instrument, doesn't allow these rules to be followed, I do not take the trade. If this becomes consistent, I look for something else to trade or stand aside.

    Clear as mud? :D

    st

    In edit: per your original question, my stops are never 4-6 points away from my entry. This is what confused me as to what you were asking. Hope this clears things up.
     
  244. Nice work ST.

    On your chart where you have the green bar with the green dot ontop, you then have a red down bar, then another red down bar that breaks that previous down bar, then a green bar that breaks to the upside, in line with the trend. Any reason you didn't take that trade? It looks like your 123 bar reversal pattern.
     
  245. My guess would be because the red bar didn't close below the green bar with the dot.
     
  246. Loving ES :p

    Edit: Holy shit :)

    Anek
     



  247. For all practical purposes here, bar 2 should have a higher high and a higher low than bars 1 and 3 to be valid. These will typically give you the best moves with minimal failures. I should have been more clear on that

    The area you are referring to was 1444.25 @ 11:25 EST for reference. Note how that 1444.25 area held four times, and once broken, the distance of the move to the upside and how the actual entry was quite a bit better.

    Also, remember, it takes 3 confirmed swings in the same direction, and then the fourth is the setup and entry. So when questioning why a trade wasn't taken, ask yourself if the complete setup was there. Furthermore, we are not looking to take each and every scenario that "looks" like it might be a setup, we are only wanting to take the cream of the crop that history has shown to provide the best probabilities of success with minimal heat. A break of a three bar reversal where bar 2 has a higher high and higher low than 1 and 3 provides that best signal. There is no need to make twenty so-so trades a day when the market typically offers 3-5 great opportunities most trading days.

    As a side note, market internals are a big part of what I look at during the day, and may cause me to only trade in one direction even though I have the 4 swings in the opposite direction. Yes, this method is quite discretional, but the rules are quite clear and simple; trade in the direction of the trend.

    Hope this helps.

    st
     
  248. Stealth,

    What kind of chart is that that you posted? Are you a constant volume proponent?

    B
     
  249. Trades for 08.06.07

    If you are following my journal you should be aware by now that today marked my complete transition from YM to the ES.

    I studied it during afterhours using 500 share charts, even made some scalps because it was trending nicely, took a much needed rest afterward, overslept a bit and then.....

    "THIS IS SPARTA!" (Avid fan)

    To the trades.....

    Shorts

    1) Stopped out, eventhough it did not work, I'm not happy with my entry, took a bigger stop than what I had planned due to bad entry. 3.25 Possibly a product of my first scalping day in ES. A bad trade in every sense of the word but had it gone a bit higher it would had been a legal short due to Price Action. Yes, I make mistakes, on a daily basis too :)

    Longs

    1) Winner
    2) Winner
    3) Winner
    4) Grand Slam

    Off to get some rest.

    Anek
     
  250. Hi,

    Best day yet since taking this approach, $323 net gain trading 1 NQ contract only per trade.....pretty happy considering NQ is only worth $20 a point :D

    Well, started this approach 7 days ago, here are the net results since starting, all trades NQ and 1 contract only, usually 4 - 8 trades per day:

    -76
    -28
    +43
    +228
    +36
    +27
    +323

    Current goal is to have more winning days per week than losing days and for
    my winning days to be bigger than losing days on avg.

    Thanks again for all the contributions from everyone on this thread especially Anek :D

    Cheers :D
     
  251. Razor,

    I'm very happy for you it looks like you are on the right track!

    Anek

     
  252. Cheers Matey :D


     
  253. I need to do some research between constant volume bars and the volume bars Tradestation provides.

    Will report any findings.

    Thanks to ST for his valuable contributions to the thread.

    Anek
     

  254. Valuable???? I'd say that is subjective to personal opinion. I was just called a "shill" on another thread! :D

    st
     

  255. Proponent? I'll have to research the meaning of that word and get back to you on that! :D


    st
     
  256. That person tends to be very negative around the forums your time would be better spent taking a crap than replying to such individuals.

    One must walk around ET forums with insurance, it's a dangerous place with dangerous people but once in a while a few pearls can be found and last but least a few laughs.

    The hard part is not falling prey to the vile creatures that surround this place. There are a lot of frustrated traders in this forum, statiscally speaking around 95%. Funny enough, we need them, someone has to pay our bills, the irony is I'm willing to help them in exchange for Karma, friendship and good spirit.

    Anek
     
  257. I havent met a good trader yet that was a negative personality. How can you be sour if your making money?
     
  258. It's not all about the money though but I see where you are going with this.

    Anek
     
  259. Great thread.
     
  260. BK,

    This is how I average up. Had you added a forth one there, plausible, you would have had the following outcome:

    Enormous gain on the first.
    Gigantic gain on the second.
    Great gain on the third.
    Small loss on the fourth.

    Note: I don't recommend this YET unless you are an experienced trader and dominate to perfection what I'm trying to teach here.

    Nevertheless, this is in my humble opinion the holy grail of money management systems.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  261. I'm getting multiple private messages on suggested reading material.

    The way i trade and the way I manage my trades is based on personal trading experience and I don't think I could give credit to anyone out there but myself and my hard work (and my family) for increasing my trading skills.

    To be honest there is a lot of crap out there.

    However, if I had to recommend one book, I would highly recommend the following work by Suri Duddella, "Trade Chart Patterns like the Pros". You can get it from surinotes.com, I did.

    This guy deserves a round of applause. In fact, he posts in ET Forums, he actually sent me a PM the other day asking me if i could review his book on the reviews section and eventhough I have not done that yet (sorry man) I will go ahead and recommend it here.

    The book has nothing but chart patterns and price action analysis, a great piece of work, terrific.

    Disclaimer, I'm not related to Suri or get commission from the sales, just anticipating the ET Police :)

    Anek
     
  262. To the Crazy ETers via PM:

    ..... yes I paid for the book too you skeptical fools.

    If you guys spent more time trading and doing less detective work your PL would be higher :p

    Anek
     
  263. Slapped like a mule today. I turned +600 into -1565. Around 735AM PST, I ran into a stuck quotes issue, unable to remove cancelled orders kind of messed me up. Became frustrated when I missed out on a nice down move, would have put me over 1000.

    Continued trying to short the move, but by that time there wasn't much left. Did not take the small profit offered. Then ran into the rally, my confidence was low and frustration high so I did not profit from it.

    I seem to have difficulty when the trend changes meaningfully intraday.
     
  264. Anvil,

    Attached most notable changes of trend. It's imperative that you are able to recognize this in real time. Until you do, you are better off in the simulator because it's a key ingredient of the system.

    Examine carefully when price starts making new higher highs or new lower lows.

    Check the end of the day, check how a change of a trend is developing there.

    Hope it helps and don't give up, takes a while to master this part. In fact everything revolves around this.

    Anek
     
  265. Anek, Are you using the 10,000 share bar chart to trade ES? One of the problems I am having is switching back and forth between timeframes, and one chart will show me a clear LL and LH, but on another (let's say shorter) timeframe there might have been a HL in between which throws me off.

    Stealth, When I first discovered ET (fairly recently) I was quite turned off by the amount of negativity - just plain nastiness - on many of the threads. I now limit myself pretty much to the few and rare positive threads, like this one, and the ES journal. Many of the better professional traders stress the importance of maintaining a positive mental attitude, and provide links to articles and other resources on their websites. Clearly important in all aspects of life, as Tony Robbins would tell you :p but critically important in the trading profession.
     
  266. thanks again for the work here Anek!
    just a great thread for n00bs like me.
    also, ST, thanks for your examples. yes, i see the similarity to your technique and Anek's. very helpful.

    :)
     
  267. Jaxon,

    500 Volume Bars for Aftehours.

    10,000 Volume Bars for Market hours.

    Recently starting with ES so nothing written in stone.

    One thing you could do is stick to a chart you feel comfortable with then use an anchor chart of say 4x the small one for major S/R + areas of congestion.

    You can only slice price in so many ways.

    Anek
     
  268. Well be a noob no more, start practicing !

    Anek :)
     
  269. Hi Anek,
    Great thread.Appreciate your willingness to share.Have one question for now regarding entries on a 50% retracement of the prior swing.

    Do you differentiate between Fib entrys in an up market which is making higher highs and higher lows vs an upmarket where the last high did not not take out the previous high??Would you still look to enter on a 50% retacement of the last swing even though the last high was lower thn the one preceeding it??

    Would you wait to see if the next low was a higher low??

    Thanks in advance

    Tao
     
  270. Thanks for you assistance, Anek.

    Now that I removed the yellow crime tape wrapped around my head I am reviewing my trade journal for the day.

    I trade equities, via a prop firm...this might be a lame question, but do you think I can apply the AHG method successfully to the SPY? I generally scalp XOM during the day, pretty successfully by targeting 6, 8 10 cents at a time.

    Catching larger intraday trends I find much more difficult, almost unnerving; I think my average hold time is in the 11 seconds on winners, and yes 2 hours on losers as I pray for divine assistance!

    I used a low near Fridays close, combined with the lower low in the first 15 minutes today, reading your prior response leads me to believe I should not have counted Fridays action in determining the trend today.

    Jesse Livermore use to say he made most of his money when he was 'sitting on his hands'...waiting for the trade to present itself. That is a tough one for me with the buypower burning a hole in my pocket and my monitors twinkling away with green and red.
     
  271. Tao,

    That's a great question. In order for me to see the continuation of an uptrend, I need to see higher highs and eventhough price can and will retrace at some point that retracement will tell you a lot about price action.

    What if the retracement makes a double bottom ? Goes as low as previous support and bounces back and makes a new high ? Is that still an uptrend, technically, no! Because an uptrend requires higher lows, not higher highs and same lows. Now, double bottoms are powerful little fellas, so much discretion around this area.

    During an uptrend, you need to examine price with all your attention and when you see those candles WITHIN that retracement making higher lows and higher high then you say....ok this could be my entry. That, is price action. Time and sales help in this, where is the pressure ? In the buying ? In the selling ? Lot of tips here and there that can be used.

    Hope that helps a bit, great question.

    Anek

     
  272. Oh man...

    I used to do this for so long, it will kill you.

    You need to change this concept 180 degrees. It's all wrong brother you need to shift this drastically in every sense of the word.

    Sounds like you are trading with fear and can't handle losses.

    You ride the winners as much as you can, let price, lows and highs guide you, and you must cut your losses short!

    **When trading becomes praying you know you made a mistake!

    **'ll say it again, it's not about being right, it's about making money!

    Anek

    PS: ** denotes importance :)
     
  273. Lol. Ain't that the truth!
     

  274. I'm curious as to why you would want to use different chart settings. The whole purpose of using constant volume is too take out the variables, not add them back. :D Any sound reasoning for your decision? Just asking! :D

    On another matter directed at no one in particular, if I may add, is to use one chart set for each instrument traded. I see people saying they use a longer term chart for trend, and then use another time frame for entries, and so on. As sound as this may be for long-term buy and holds, if you are closing your trades out each night, the longer term for trend has no meaning and will only confuse you. Think about this. The longer term chart could be showing a strong trend up, but TODAYS market internals are 5 to 1 to the downside on high volume. Are you only going to scalp longs because the long term chart is trending up? I should hope not. When you trade short time frames intraday, you should only be concentrating on the here and now; the precise time you enter and the precise time you exit. All else is noise.

    Chart settings, regardless of type, should be obtained based on length of time your trading plan calls for holding your positions. And for the purpose of this thread, trading from one chart, one chart setting, is paramount. In my opinion, of course!

    st
     
  275. Anec and Stealth,

    I usually start off the day with a bad trade. Do you have certain criteria you look for each day, perhaps not to trade before a certain time, or to wait for an initial high and low to form?

    Again thanks,

    Don
     
  276. A few questions:

    1) I understood from the beginning of the thread, that your defintion of a change in trend from UP to DOWN is (2) LL's and (2) LH's. Is this correct?

    2) Are you using any price undulations that are not drawn automatically as a pivot by the software, as a LL or LH ?

    3) I'm asking the above, because on that first Short (loss), I only see one LH (according to pivots placed by the software) before you took the Short trade. Please explain.

    I think the subjectivity of this methodology lies in the undulations of price and what actually constitutes a HH, HL, LL, & LH. Please tell me if I'm wrong.
     
  277. Determining the swings is the least subjective aspect imo. Subjectivity comes in on the entries and exits which cannot be helped because they are always a compromise.
     
  278. Stealth, I also reduce my tics or shares when looking at overnight activity. 10000 shares in ES goes by quickly during the day, while overnight it could take 6 hours. YM especially, overnight volume is so light that the entire evening could be one bar at the day's pace.

    I also tend to look at a longer term chart during the day to determine the trend but check a very short term chart to pick an entry. It does appeal to me intuitively to just concentrate on one timeframe for daytrading. I just haven't figured out what that is, so I switch back and forth a bit. :p


    And here is a new twist. Should I be looking at yesterday's late high? If so, we are now making lower highs. If I ignore yesterday, then we have a higher high this morning. :confused: (I am over thinking, I know)
     
  279. If you look at Anek's charts, you'll see that some pivots are not annotated by the software. That is because of the particular setting that he has chosen (whether it be 3, 4 or 5 bars etc.). That by itself is subjective. And, one trader might view the same uptrend in price with a pullback and lower low of only 1 Tick as just a pause where as another might see it as a LL.

    Others may use a change in color thru a momentum indicator to determine their HH, HL, etc.
     
  280. ST,thank you for your priceless contribution to this thread..in one of your previous posts you claim that trading the range in chop is easy money..could you illustrate it with an example? would be nice to see a chart where you handle one of those range bound days..once again thanks and I'm counting on your good mood here :)
     
  281. Anek,

    I came across this thread a couple of days ago and have been very impressed with your willingness to help others. I'm in the group of newcomers trying to make sense of futures trading. I'm sure I'll have more questions as I try to become skillful at your seemingly straightforward method.

    I've been practicing with mixed success. I'm using timed price data, vs. fixed volume, because that's all I have available using Etrade's platform, TTrader. I know that's a crappy reason to use time-based price data, but until I move to a different platform, what time period do you think would most mimic volume graphs, for the ES? 1 minute charts move very fast and 5 minute charts seem way too slow. Perhaps 3 minute bars?

    Also, would appreciate anyone's 2cents on which platform I should look at.

    Thanks.
     
  282. Anec

    I've brushed off fibs in the past but Ive been looking at it since you brought it up and it does look like a pretty sound method of entry. Can you tell me what kind of stop you use for those times when price blows right through your limit order. When price is moving fast when it gets close to your order do you pull it and try to get a better price?
     
  283. It helps me tremendously to be aware of potential massive areas of congestions/breakouts based on meaningful S/R in the multi day charts aka my anchor charts.

    Anek
     
  284. Hey Coach...stayed patient, identified the trend, made good trades, took profits, stayed in the 'present'...banked $1244.

    Logged off and currently trying to tie myself to my chair...to avoid logging back on and getting reamed on a rash trade.
     
  285. Don,

    Not me, I see a trend, game on. Even in afterhours, pre-market, you name it.

    Just in case, stay out of AH/PRE unless you know what you are dealing with.

    Anek
     
  286. Anek, Does Tradestation work ok for you? I know my comp is underpowered, but it freezes up when activity picks up and has been nearly worthless since 215pm. I know ts has issues with this and it is not just me.

    GaryN, Anek will answer your question, but I went through the same thing and it appears to me that rather than place a limit order at a fib retracement, waiting for the market to hit that level, it seems that Anek lets the market turn hgiher first, then with the help of stoch crossover enters on the uptic. Is that fair, Anek?
     
  287. Alpine,

    It's prob both subjective and objective, that's where skill and experience comes into place.

    The pivots plotted by the software are quick areas of reference but not necessarily written in stone as they have fixed parameters that might work for some scenarios and not for others.

    I actually use them so my charts look more clear when I posted them here.

    You are correct about the undulations, they matter to me. If it helps highs and lows based on FIXED wavelengths are extremely useful especially when using volume bars.

    That short was wrong on all levels as specified on the annotations, anticipated it and paid the price.

    Anek

     
  288. Gary,

    I would have to agree with Alpine and you here, it's a bit of both, read post above.

    Anek
     
  289. Remember no one is forcing you to trade live. In fact, don't trade live until you fully believe in yourself and your method.

    Glad you did well.

    Anek
     
  290. Walter,

    I do not like time based charts, they got longbars and mislead. I don't recommend them.

    Feel free to use them to practice trend classification but definitely tick or volume based bars for the real deal.

    Anek

     
  291. Forget the word fibs, to me it's just voodoo crap. Just examine complacency of bears and bulls akin to meet me half way or 50%.

    Aside from that, study price, study the micro reversal when looking for entry, look at time and sales, stochs, etc.

    Many times you will not always get that 50% if trend is mega strong. Need to study price action and when you see a sign of "ok we are done", weak hands out, then you jump with the trend that matters.

    Anek
     
  292. Jaxon,

    Tradestation requires a solid machine with plenty of CPU power and memory to work well.

    I like the charting software though.

    Anek

     
  293. If you are curious, I'm not trading now due to chop :)

    Anek
     
  294. Hi Stealth

    There has been mention of market internals here. Could you mention a few I could read up on?

    TICK, TRIN, PUT/CALL, A/D ?

    could you please elaborate ?

    thanks for a great thread anek !

    cheers
    ss
     
  295. Jaxon,

    Right on the money, good observation.

    Anek
     
  296. I will let ST answer this but I could not help posting my opinion :)

    TICK TRIN A/D nothing of that matters to me. It used to, it does not anymore.

    So ST does not approve of my anchor charts and I don't approve of his market internals.

    Can you say, FIGHT!? :eek:

    Just kidding, peace and love.

    Anek
     
  297. Anek, 3 trades today 2 win 1 loss +4,-4,+4

    Would you offer comments on my entries/exits or lack of same?

    Thanks,
    Don
     
  298. Hi,

    Well back to reality today, -$216 net. Not sure what I really did wrong but just too many losers v. winners (had an awesome short entry this morning and covered waaaaaaayyyyy to early) and an order in for a long after fed and pulled it (if it would have filled I would have been in for the monster rally up until 330pm.....)then I tried to get long on the pullback after the rally into 330pm which just ended up selling into close so obviously I got stopped...oh well, wish I could have kept the loss to under $100 today but such is life, could take 2 - 3 days to make back this 216 loss we shall see....hope others did better, off to a meeting be back after 10pm or so tonight.....cheers :D
     
  299. +4 net on ES is an awesome day congrats ! Picture just averaging 2 points a day and building up to 50 cars per trade ;)

    Nice work !

    Cheers,
    Ray


     
  300. Thanks, Razor, Just luck at this point. Why don't you post your chart. Helps to get input.
     
  301. Trades for 08.07.07

    All annotations on chart.

    Shorts

    1 and 2 Averaged up on the shorts.

    Longs

    3

    Where are the losers ? Keep behaving like this market, I like it.

    Got to respect the market, the moment you get arrogant it can slap you hard without a warning.

    However, (ji ji ji) I will defy my own rules and say, taking candy from a baby :p

    Now watch the market pull a heavy day of reversals on me to slap my behind :)

    Trend is your friend, my friends!

    Anek

    PS: Notice the "elite" volume size bar :)
     
  302. Nah, you are following the plan, no such thing as luck :D

    Yea, I will try and post a chart later tonight when I get back from meeting if I don't hit the sack right away.....




     
  303. Anek, What size stop on that last trade?
     
  304. 2 ticks below the last HL so prob around 8-10 ticks.

    Price got down to 1448, stop was 1447.50 :eek:

    Anek
     

  305. Hey, I never said I did not like your anchor charts! :confused:

    Fact is, I am always conscience of where support and resistance lies. Difference is, I plot S/R levels from 15/60 minute charts onto my CV chart before each market day and then never look at the higher time frame again.

    I do not change the speed of my intraday charts at all. I was simply questioning why you continually change the speed of the entry/exit chart depending on what day or time it is. Nothing more was intended.

    All right, people. I just wanted to stop by and compare notes with Anek, and that we have done. You are in good hands with him.

    Carry on! :D


    st
     
  306. Remember, baby steps. Taking a stop equal to your target means your accuracy has to be greater than 50% plus you got commission to fight against.

    Now, your skill in accuracy and runners comes through time so there isn't much i can say except that you missed some good opportunities on entries and exits.

    Particularly, letting those winners run. Remember when something goes in your favor and say you are long, UNLESS you see price stopping and momentum fading and/or making lower highs after you made a profit....there really is no reason to leave. Needless to say this cannot be mastered in a week or two, takes time. In fact, I'm still polishing my skills in that department.

    One step at a time.

    Anek
     
  307. ST,

    My bad, I probably misunderstood your earlier comments. Now noticed I used to do that with tick charts, which vary in comparison to fixed volume bars, have not done that with volume bars except for the eccentric reduction from 10,000 to 9999.

    ...oh and btw, agree with the speed principle.

    Anek
     
  308. market internals? :confused:
     
  309. To All:

    Here is a little tip on extending your winners.

    Remember, in this method, you are always with the trend, unless it changes, odds are always in your favor. Speaking of odds, this is precisely why I trade this way.

    When you are a contrarian, calling tops and bottoms, don't you feel praying more than trading most of the time ? Think about it, you are hoping the market changes drastically just for you! A little naive don't you think? When the market is ready to turn, it will lead you and even lay down hints in the process.

    Once you digest the logic behind this your confidence will increase exponentially.

    Anek
     
  310. I had two trade for +3 points today. It always embarrases me when the market makes a big move up as I seldom make much. I have always done much better with the shorts as I have more confidence in what Im doing. Not sure what the cure is.
     
  311. Never be ashamed of small profits or small losses only of big losses.

    Best thing in life is that there is always a next day for you to learn, teach, laugh, cry, forgive or be forgiven :) ...oh and ya, market usually opens too ! :p

    Anek
     
  312. Some US markets have statistics on the market internal operations such as TICK, TRIN, advances, declines. Forex, for example, does not have these market internals.

    Keep at it GaryN. +3 is always than -3 and much better than -33. Shorts moves twice as fast as longs generally, so you are exposed to shorter periods of anxiety :)

    Not all of John Carter's stuff are tiresome and for newbies. For example his scalper indicator (checking for a trigger bar that makes a lower high, and no more higher highs and closes below the trigger) is an extension of what Anekdoten has described here. Do not trade on this signal alone because it is lagging and paints the bar or showme after about 3 bars, look for other filters for confirmation (eg Anekdoten may say 'price action') Here is a picture of a very lagging scalper signal for the ES today:
    [​IMG]

    Thank you to TraderLu for posting this on traderslaboratory and Anekdoten for starting this thread.
     
  313. Attached please find the Tradestation indicators used in the sample Tmarket suggests.

    I have zero or very little experience with this so can't comment on the pros or cons of such system.

    However, if you got the skills this can easily be backtested in automation.

    Comments welcome of course.

    Anek
     
  314. Hey guys! I just wanted to start out by saying to Anekdote that this journal you've started is fantastic! This is what trading is all about. The conclusions you have come to and this system you have been developing falls right into the same things that I have determined: price action will give you the answers. I am in efforts of refining my trading style to the same guidelines you have been teaching here. I have a few questions though, and pardon if they make me look amateur.

    1) I daytrade equities instead of futures. Is there a reason that you choose futures over equities? If so what is that reason? And if daytrading equities instead of futures contracts is an ok option to stick to, will this type of trading system still qualify?

    2) Trading these equities I use multiple time frames for price TA, but my base chart runs in 5 minute increments. I noticed that you use Tick instead. I have no experience in that, but I realize this would make our charts quite a bit different visually. So I guess the question falls somewhere under these lines: Are you using Tick because you trade futures instead of equities, and is the fact that I am using incremental candles instead of tick going to cause this this type of trading system to function improperly.

    Phew! Hope that isn't too confusing for you guys to read :p :p

    Regards.
     
  315. Cx,

    I started in equities. However, futures are better, for me anyway, for countless reasons.

    - Better liquidity
    - Less games (electronic)
    - Way more leverage
    - Around the clock (kind of)
    - No research involved
    - Less slippage
    - No short uptick rule
    - Can daytrade without 25k
    - Easier taxation

    ...etc, etc, etc. I highly suggest you search around the forums or elsewhere for the vast number of reasons.

    As far as charts, tick and volume bars, you need to be able to kill the possible longbars in time based charts that hide what could be important to observe; at least as a scalper.

    Hope it helps.


    Anek
     
  316. Do you do breakouts at all? I took the break over yesterdays high. My target is 1499.75

    edit: stopped out at 97.75. Came within a tick of hitting my target.
     
  317. I was expecting strong resistence at 1500 but it was a little late in coming in. Went another 5 points beyond my exit. Oh well. I have started watching volume charts alongside my regular charts and I can see some interesting differences. With overnite data included you could make a pretty good case for having gone long right near the open.

    <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1560285">
     
  318. Gary,

    Wouldnt it be a higher probability trade if you let the breakout run and wait until a HH or LL is formed, then have the odds aligned in your favor.
     
  319. I almost never take the first breakout but this morning it made two attempts at breaking the high with only minimal pullbacks. When they headed that way for the third time I felt pretty strongly that it was going to go.
     
  320. Trades for 08.08.07

    Chart Attached.

    Not my kind of day, did not see ideal retracements in many good trends.

    1 Long

    Modest gains

    2 Short

    1st Winner
    2nd Stopped out

    Total

    2 for 3

    Taking off early, not my kind of day. I'm thinking 10,000 bars might be a bit too high for my scalping style but it's too early to tell. Since I'm new to ES I might start examining 5000. Definitely can't say I'm married to one yet. Not sure yet, could be the feeling that today I did just ok and saw many good trends that did not quite give me a good entry. It took some discipline.

    Tomorrow is a new day, taking off early to clear my mind. I see a bearish trend forming now but I'm not in the right state of mind, choosing the door out.

    As I say, small gains, small losses, no shame in that.

    Anek
     
  321. I need advice; please help. I just setup my first futures account, and I have a choice of software platforms:

    Realtick
    Quote Tracker
    Nexa
    Meridian
    or Esignal

    I currently use IQ for equities, but they don't allow futures. Any suggestions?

    Thanks,
    Tyler
     
  322. Esignal is great but expensive.

    Anek

     
  323. "The ones you should ignore (for now) because they require greater
    skill to consistently profit from or
    simply, the sideway ones:"

    Following this rule has really helped me stay out of trouble.

    +827
     
  324. I just examined the day at hand using 5000 volume bars and see those pullbacks I did not find today in 10000.

    Taking into serious consideration.

    Ok off I go.

    Note to self: Examine more days

    Anek
     
  325. I love it when you guys post profits, makes me feel great. Record what you been doing that is helping you, stick to the plan/rules.

    Anek
     
  326. Then you will like this Anek, back on track with another profitable day after yesterdays set back...Net Gain $139 :D

    Cheers :D
     
  327. Anek, still trading YM, I took basically the same trade as your 2nd short, but I got in a little earlier and my trailing stop gave me a small profit on that trade. I move my stops pretty quickly to preserve profit, but hopefully not too quick in case the market wants to run. Following your method really saved me some heartache this afternoon. Following the plunge to the lows I really really wanted to short it, but looking at my chart after the 15:28 low I saw mostly HH and HL (one LL), so.... according to my trading plan I don't short. Didn't take a long after a couple of HH/HLs, but at least it saved me from taking an ill advised short. :)
     
  328. Jaxon,

    Sounds great, odds in our favor, no guessing. No calling bottoms or tops, spot the trend, and you ride it, no trend and you stay put.

    Anek
     
  329. In case you don't have access to volume bars.

    Attached please find ES Chart using 4999 shares for today's action.

    This is more like me, look at all the pullback opportunities with the trend. Exquisitely beautiful for my averaging up money management approach (again, only for veteran traders).

    Anek
     
  330. In order to prevent the same question asked over and over again I will state my opinion on MACD here in the journal, this will make my job easier as I get the same questions asked over and over and over again.

    - It is extremely slow, gets you in and out 3-4 bars too late. This goes against my trading style.

    - It's useful only on strong trending environments and you will leave profits behind on entries and exits.

    - It's divergences signals are as good as 50%. More like random, more like useless.

    - It is nothing but the derivative of two LAGGING indicators (Moving Averages).

    Do I recommend it ? NO!

    I don't want to start a MACD discussion in this journal, just stating my opinion for the record.

    You are better off learning CCI, in fact you are better off with price action alone, no stochastics either, that goes for me as well.

    .....but if you use it profitably, by all means disregard all of the above and carry on. :)

    Anek
     
  331. Attached please find the outcome of the system TMarket described yesterday for today.

    White dot plots, if subsequent bars are of the same color (HA) of the pivot direction, take the signal.

    Notice that the white dot ONLY plots after 3-4 bars have been completed, sometimes more.

    Just a one day test, no conclusions yet. However, compared to AHG, pitiful so far. Using 5000 volume bars I would have killed that chart.

    My only doubt is if the bar with the plot has to be of the desired color or only the following ones. I assumed it had to be.

    Anek
     
  332. Anek,

    Take a look at this idea on your 4999 CV chart for entry, exit and re-entry. T28 in his SPM thread used a 3sma (+1 offset). TradeStation can probably do it. You might be able to ditch the Stoch.
     
  333. Alpine,

    Can you please elaborate on the details of 3MA (+1 offset) ?

    Obviously, it is a very fast moving average. Do you mean watching it for entry when price is retracing ?

    Anek
     
  334. Alpine,

    Yes, TS can do it. On displacement, -1 or +1 ? This could very from software to software.

    Anek
     
  335. Just in case, here is the Hull Moving Average for TS, usually superior to SMA/EMA etc.

    This one changes color too based on slope.

    I believe the Zero Line Input would be the displacement/offset input that Alpine speaks of for this technique, one that I'm still unaware of :)

    This better be good as adding indicators to my trading sounds like a kick in the balls but if its for the better, I'll take the hit, ouch! :eek:

    Anek
     
  336. The 3sma should be offset +1 (to the right). On a retracement in an uptrend, an entry can be taken when price closes back above the 3sma. It can also be used as an exit when price closes below it. After an exit, it can be used for re-entry if price has made a HL. Simply re-enter with another close above the 3sma.
     
  337. Will test, thanks for sharing.

    Anek
     
  338. IMHO looks like a hull 10 period with +1 displacement works well on a 5000 v es chart. Maybe less evil than sto?
     
  339. I am playing with the 3sma on Tradestation and it appears that with ts you have to use -1 to move the average to the right, if that is what you want to do. Positive numbers move it to the left.
     
  340. Jaxon,

    I concur.

    Anek
     
  341. Hey, thanks for the detailed reply. I am seriously considering opening a futures account for the reasons you've stated as well as others. I did research the comparisons of trading futures to equities like you said and found that they both have their pros and cons. In any case, like I said in my first post I have always traded using time increments instead of options like Tick like you use. I was wondering if the transition from time increments to Tick data would be difficult or if it just merely an adjust and some getting used to? Also... do you have any other threads going that you op that are similar to this one? Would just like to follow the others if they exist (gotta know when to pursue the valuable :). Lastly through research, it seems like for what I am interested in most trade the YM or ES. I see that you recently just now changed to the ES. So i was looking for feedback on which of those two is a better choice based experience and good hard data? Feedback from Anekdote and any others much appreciated. Thanks!!

    Cx~
     
  342. Cx,

    It might not be a completely objective opinion but I traded equities for four years, they offer VERY little pros in comparison to futures. To each their own.

    My suggestion, paper trade for SIX MONTHS MINIMUM before you use a single dollar. Once you feel comfortable on paper if you see constant profitability, hard to do within a six month period unless you got the right mindset and tools from the start (read this journal), then you work on psychology with MINIMAL contract size in CASH.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek


     
  343. Hi,

    I am resisting the urge to add anything to my chart right now, just price bars and Heiken bars. IMHO if I can continue to book profits with just price action and zippo indicators then when market goes through diff periods as it does of course (ie, tighter ranges, wider ranges, etc) my eye will be more adjusted to pure price action vs. looking for an indicator to confirm. I will say though I do look at between the 40 - 60% retrace level from the prior move to start focusing on price action in more detail (ie: entry mode) to get me in the trade as this 40 - 60% seems the either continue back with the trend or fail and start a new trend zone. I will also draw in the odd trendline here and there. Here is what my chart looks like:


    http://i19.tinypic.com/4tztukw.png

    Cheers :D

    PS: I will occasionally glance at the pivot points for the day as well for potential support and resistance zones but pure price is where my ultimate decisions are made.

    PPS: I am only voicing my thoughts and what I do right now but I am a rookie so best to probably ignore my babble and do what Anek and the crew are doing :D
     
  344. Razor,

    This is only a test, not a modification.

    In order for me to officially go from v1.0 to 1.1 in AHG it has to be a phenomenal improvement.

    You got the right mindset, keep trading with the proven methods. If I find a modification to the system that is substantially positive it will be announced as an option. The ultimate decision is yours.

    I'm all for don't fix what is not broken but life has taught me that intransigence and stubburness leads to nothing but trouble. If we find an improvement that is worth it whether it is suggested by me or Bin Laden himself, we will share the option for the sake of milking the market.

    Anek


     
  345. Good stuff! I have been interactive with the markets for some time now, but have little actual trading experience. I do consider myself ahead though in that I have allready chosen to bypass the excess and choose to trade only what I see and what the chart tells me to do. That said, I only trade price action (i make note of a few small things here and there, but they are miniscule at best). I do agree with the paper trading. You suggesting that only further implements your quality that builds this thread. I do respect your opinion between futures and equities as I agree with its basis. Any other thoughts on my questions about the transition from time increments to TICK or the ES vs. YM???

    Cx~
     
  346. I hear ya my brutha :D I just know when I start adding stuff I do worse LOL....so for right now gonna just keep it the way it is, like you say though I am always open to look at new things and my mind is always in open mode :D

    Cheers :D


     
  347. Time to provide input on what's better for entry.

    Both indicators are applied on today's ES chart.

    Square area marks the clear uptrend.

    Your time is appreciated.

    Anek
     
  348. Cx,

    Since you are going to be paper trading how about you examine both and you decide. As far as tick or volume based bars, you can't go wrong there.

    Anek
     
  349. Quick question out of curiousity Anekdote. Why not just trade the etf SPY instead of trading the ES? Any other reasons other than futures accounts require less money?
     
  350. The difference is so monstrous, I will actually let you research this on your own, so you can say "AHHHHH!"

    :)

    Anek
     
  351. If its so monsterous please enlighten us. I find it hard to find thats there a monsterous difference, unless your refering to the fact that the emini trades in quarters and the spy trades in pennies.

    Please explain!
     
  352. Well, you gave the joke away Dino!

    Anek
     
  353. Eh, I guess that leaves it at more leverage, taxes, lower commissions and possibly more precise consistency of stop fills.

    AHHHHH..... :p :p :p
     
  354. Aside from leverage the spread is possibly the biggest difference that and the around the clock nature of futures.

    A market order is actually better on SPY, depending on # of shares of course, .01 vs possible 12.50

    Anek
     
  355. Yeah I figured the open hours of the futures market was part of the reasoning. Well... until i can figure out something else to pick your brain with i'll sit back and continue to enjoy the oustanding thread. Good trading!!!


    Cx~
     
  356. Cx,

    Imagine you are swing trading and something catastrophic happens at 3AM in the morning. Futures give you the option to bail or solidify your position if you are on the right side. In equities or ETFs you would need to wait til pre-market opens to decide. They even give you the option to hedge if you got investments. They are simply more flexible.

    As a very aggressive averaging up trader when things go my way, and panic hits the market hard the massive leverage provided by futures allows me to keep averaging up if the trend continues. In SPY I would be limited to 4X, least last time I checked. That to me is priceless for my particular style of trading.

    Anek
     
  357. Ya that is another awesome point! I don't intend to hold SPY or es mini for swings though, basically just your typical 9:30 a.m.-4:00 p.m. EST. I'll leave the swings++ for building wealth in equities.


    ~Cx
     
  358. Great little downtrend during afterhours. Managed to short many of the pop ups, still no higher high so hard to go to bed on this position.

    As it keeps going down, I add shorts on the weak pop ups. All stops on what would be a higher high, signaling a possible change of a trend.

    Time to get some coffee could be a long but interesting night.

    Anek
     
  359. Forgot the chart, yep, I'm tired :)

    500 Share charts due to obvious lower volume of the night.

    See that ? That's a sweet sweet downtrend.

    Anek
     
  360. Keeps dropping, adjusted stop a bit with a trail, good night, yep GOOD GOOD night :)

    Anek
     
  361. Still dropping....new LOD.

    Support on the multi day chart, covering half, trailing the rest, and really hittting the sack now.

    Anek
     
  362. Stopped out on the remaining half based on a HH. Profits secured on 2/3rd of the remaining positions, last add small loss.

    Now I can sleep in peace.

    Anek
     
  363. just made a dumb mistake, details later... :mad:
     
  364. Back for more....

    Anek
     
  365. Im having problems with Quotetracker using volume bars with heiken ashi. The do some weird things. The last price does not match the last on the candle. I may have to look around if I decide to keep using these things. Three shorts so far this morning. Still in the last one.
     
  366. Highs and lows will differ between Heiken and regular price bars, fwiw :D


     
  367. 1 screwup
    1 badly timed short - still not sure what I was thinking.

    Now I only see chop (YM)
     
  368. Thx. I guess I should read up on the things before using them, huh? Thats not the only thing screw up tho. My trendlines keep moving too. That doesnt happen on time charts. Weird.
     
  369. Hey,

    Yea I find my trendlines etc move on the volume charts as well.



     
  370. Massive profits on this downside move, nothing but LL and LHs.

    AHG rules, yes I'm biased!

    Anek
     
  371. Nice work, I am down today......guess why........ been trying to catch this bottom, so silly........well I am still a work in progress :D


     
  372. I will say something that will sound mean but should help you.

    You went against the trend, you called a bottom, glad you lost, but will be even more glad if you learn the lesson once and for all and stop doing what amateurs and newcomers do.

    It's time for you to trade right.

    Anek

    PS: My apologies for harsh words but this is not what I teach and I want you to get it right.
     
  373. I hear ya Anek, trying to beat these emotional demons....perhaps an answer to this question will help me, if one were to just take these trend trades as per your guidance how many days per month roughly will one experience days where the counter trend action chops you up ? Obviously you can't tell me exactly how 'I' will perform on a counter trend day but what I am getting at is recently the markets have been very trendy IMHO which is unusual as compared to action I have seen over the last 12+ months. Over the course of a 'normal' month how many days does one see trending action ? The reason I ask this is because I have always been under the impression that there are only about 2 - 5 trend days per month with 18 - 15 usually counter trend days etc....I think this is what is causing me a mental block....thoughts ?

    Cheers :D


     
  374. I'm not a smart man, but you don't need a "Trend Day" to be a ble to catch intraday trends. Price "trends" all the time. Even range days have short lived "trends". AHG is about scalping small trend moves to start, then you can add stuff as you advance.

    You shouldn't care WHAT the market does.....find the set ups, enter trade, exit when market tells you to, and at the end of the day, hopefully, you made money.

    If I had to describe today, I'd call it a range day. One with 2 nice trends.....one up.....one down.....imagine this. Every day the market made charts that looked like a W or an M......Those would be range bound days....but each would have numerous INTRA day trends. Different charts....different trends.......imagine if a chart looked like this WW.....lots of trends, lots of scalps. / or this \ might not make you alot of money if you get out too soon.

    I just thought I'd add my nonsensical 2 cents.

    Sorry for the keyboard symbols.....just to lazy to find a chart.

    Anek.....can you add a 500 volume Hang Seng Futures chart.....want to see what it would look like. :D
     
  375. Bog you nailed the concept, hats off.

    If someone has the symbol for TS that you request I will gladly post a chart.

    Anek

     
  376. You can try HSIU7 and HHIU7.....if they don't work try HIU7....

    Thanks Anek.

    :D
     
  377. This is not much different from what Ive been doing, pullbacks and double tops and bottom, but I am always looking to improve. The thing that has been an eyeopener is paying more attention the the sequence of highs and lows. I thought I was aware of the swing highs and lows but apparently it was only halfhearted attention because it does make a great filter. The volume/heikin ashi charts seem to bring this out in a much clearer way. Making new lows as we speak. Yummy.
     
  378. Great work on this thread Anek and everyone contributing. It's really helping my learning process.

    Quick question for you guys. I know ES,YM,ER2 trading isn't quite as well in the evening hours. But is there any problem trading pre-market ? For me ideal would be 5am - 8-am EST. Are these good hours in terms of liquidity and price movement ?

    Also any opinions on trading ES from 6pm - 9pm EST. Is there enough action/price movement


    Thanks Guys for the great work !
     
  379. Booyah,

    A chart is a chart but unless it's a special event, lack of liquidity and volatility could screw with the best ones out there.

    Unless you been around the block I advice against trading off market hours.

    Anek


     
  380. I see what you're saying Anek. But does the liquidity really die dow after 430, or before the bell around 8am. I'll try to be careful and a noob should play it safe, but it sucks having a fulltime job and living in the EST time zone.
     
  381. "We SHORT a pop up and again, we are nimble with our target."

    Rinse.Repeat.

    +1288
     
  382. booyah

    If you want to go to bed early you can get up around 3:00am and trade the Dax and Estx50. Really not much different than trading the minis.
     
  383. Well.....very disappointing day for me....my own fault for trying to fight the trend but disheartening none the less....Net Down -$441 :(

    Oh well, back at it tomorrow....


    edit: over traded as well, 32 round trips....
     
  384. Trades for 08.09.07

    Today I traded without stochastics, instead I tested a very fast MA with an offset to the right for comparative reasons.

    Did I miss the stochs ? No.

    5000 shares chart for ES as suspected is my new girlfriend !

    11 Shorts

    1st Winner
    2nd Winner
    3rd Winner
    4th Hold it right there sir! Stopped out :)
    5th Winner
    6th Winner
    7th Winner
    8th Break Even got too greedy :)
    9th Winner
    10th Winner
    11th Still in the play short....

    9 for 11 so far

    3 Longs

    1st Winner

    2nd stopped out

    3rd The Double Bottom looked good, so i took it with a 2 tick stop and rode it for well over 4x reward.

    2 for 3

    Total: Aprox 11 for 14

    The trend is your friend!

    We don't' call bottoms, we don't call tops and we never never EVER go against the immediate trend.

    Is it sinking in yet ? :)

    Anek
     
  385. very nice work..but i still cant get a very good handle of this technique.. Question -

    In a downtrend if you get a pop up and after that 2 bars with lower low. Will you enter on close of third bar or 2nd bar.

    Whats the ideal stop will be top last high bar.

    Say Bar 1 is last high bar then you have Bar2 and Bar3 which creates lower low will you enter on close of bar4 or Bar3. Where is the stop????


    Can you post some chart with SPY volume 1000000 shares.


    thanks for help
     
  386. Bill,

    Here is your chart for SPY.

    As far as your entry question, I need to see some sort of signal that the pop up had enough. Today I was using the fast MA to eyeball the exhaustion but that thing was pretty fast today, it's slope though was very helpful. There is no specific rule of 2nd or 3rd bar, I eyeball a good entry and place my limit orders, sometimes I get lucky, sometimes I miss the move completely but I never ever chase it.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  387. Booyah,

    I'll say it again, I don't recommend it :)

    Sorry man, I know it is not what you want to hear/read.

    Anek
     
  388. Anvil,

    You da man!
     
  389. Examine your chart, annotate all errors and mistakes. Make an effort to differentiate what was inevitable and what was your fault.

    Learn from the above, tomorrow is a new day.

    Anek
     
  390. Excellent suggestion. The DAX is good stuff.

    Anek
     
  391. What is it with all the new aliases with 0-1 posts sending messages via PM ?

    Makes me curious if I'm a newbie magnet or if some of the elite trader "pride" is hiding their real identity in search for guidance.

    Assuming this could be a possibility, I wonder what ever happened to humility lately.

    I have absolutely no complex taking/asking suggestions from Joe.Trader.X or Tudor Jones. Makes no difference to me, this is not about pride, this is about getting better, improving your trading, making friends and last but not least sharing!

    Moving on.

    Anek
     
  392. Bog,

    Does not look like I got access to it.

    Sorry I could not help.

    Anek
     
  393. Hi Anek,

    Will do, no reason why I should not be booking a profit on days like today, sad really....oh well tomorrow is a new day :D

    Thanks for the response and encouragement :D

     
  394. I tell you why you lost on a sweet day like today, having all the tools at hand.

    Because trading is for the most part, psychological.

    Nevertheless, do your homework tonight.

    Anek
     
  395. Jaxon,

    Think you could post a chart so i can visualize this?

    Anek
     
  396. Bill,

    Couple of extra tips for entries that should help you determine optimal areas.

    Anek
     
  397. A. I know you are right about the mental aspect, Lately, though I am not really a religious person, I am adopting somewhat of a religious take on trading. If a person believes in a method, they should quit listening to the DEVIL!
    Those pretty indicators, those split second impluses, those quick rushes of fear or greed. All work for the Devil! Really, I find I overthink myself out of profit hand over fist. Seems if I just follow the rules, like making widgets, then the system works as described on the box.

    In getting a better feel on when to exit at a S/R level or let it run, It looks like the let it run approach works best when coming out of an area of consolodation or range, where we would anticipate to see a breakout run. Sound about right?

    Also, curious on your time zone. Looks like about 5 hours ahead of me here in North Florda.

    Again, Thanks
     
  398. bmw,

    I could not agree more. How about this simple rule ? Unless the indicator measures price action and by price action I mean highs lows support resistance allow yourself a maximum of one, your choice. That way your concentration stays on what matters, price. Remember you look at price first then you get confirmation from your tools. Not the other way around. Many traders concentrate on indicators and forget about Gran Daddy, PRICE!

    Letting the winners run is not only crucial but could determine the difference between a poor, good and a great day. Lots of market time should be devoted to this area. I've said multiple times in this journal it is possibly the hardest aspect to master too. In my humble opinion, momentum is the key here. Is is rallying, is it stopping, is it hesitating, in the tape, where is the pressure ? There should be some extra info about momentum in the journal as well.

    As far as location for security reasons I wish to keep all personal details private.

    Anek

     
  399. Anekdoten...

    Why don't you give everybody a thrill and post your trade results each day.

    Just post a pic of your PnL... I bet they would get a kick out of that...:cool:

    Plus they could see right where you entered and exited.

    They could really learn a lot from that don't you think?
     
  400. I don't see how posting personal details about car size and PnL can help people trade better. If you think I do this for the thrill you got the wrong person.

    Plenty of people have seen me trade live in the past if its genuinenesse evidence what you seek.

    To conclude next week would be my last of trade presentation, from then on, I am willing to comment but I cannot possibly continue with the same dedication as private matters get left behind.

    The purpose of the journal is to help not amuse.

    Anek
     
  401. The last short is still open.

    Why ? Because there is still no reason to cover.

    Live chart attached.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  402. Awesome ! :D


     
  403. Since next week will be the end of your journal, I suspect you will get a barage of questions. So, I'll start now just to break the ice.

    I notice you do not re-enter a trade after a loss and have stated so I believe in this journal. It is a falt that I have. Anything else you may offer on this subject?

    It may be just a judgement call, but on the attached chart from today there is a high label HH and a low labeled LL. It seems they could be viewed as the beginning of a congestion, but you took a sell off of the pullback of the next LL. Are you guided by the previous High and Previous Low rather than the secondary ones that I labeled? Kind of an obtuse question, but I think it is an area with which some of us are struggling.

    On a pullback, say on a downtrend do you look at the distance in points to the previous low as a gauge whether or not to take a sell. Since you may exit at or near that low, do you look for some room for price to move around in?

    More to come...........Thanks
     
  404. B,

    The journal, hopefully will keep growing as you guys help each other out. I can always chip in with ideas or comments. Just hard to keep this rate going when you have family.

    Yes if I get stopped out I suspect change of a trend aka some consolidation before a new trends develops. I also need to see, and this is very important, IF it develops one.

    I definitely saw that in real time but took a chance and called it "noise" due to the volatility at hand, valid question though.
    When something like that presents itself close stop is always good insurance.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek

     
  405. My screwup was moving my stop up too soon which took me out of a trade at a small loss that would have gone profitable fairly quickly. My initial stop would have been untouched.


    My badly timed short was almost identical to your 4th short that you got stopped out on, except the pattern occurred earlier in the day , I shorted the last lower high as the trend was changing to "up"

    Market was moving sideways from 10:30 to 12:30 eastern time with some LH and HL mixed in with HH and LLs.

    I just went through the exercise of walking through the daily bar chart (555 volume YM and 222 volume YM bars) and taking trades based on HH/ HL, LH/LL with entry determined by stoch cross, using as little discretion as possible. I presume close of bar price as my entry. I still am having trouble showing net profit! I get stopped out of a lot of trades, (I use an 8 tic mm stop for YM) and not many of those would have been huge winners anyway. Seems my biggest problem is the sharp moves where there is very little retracement. I have a hard time finding a reasonable entry.
     
  406. Jaxon,

    Stop needs to be strategic for whatever reason but strategic, not some fixed number.

    Losses are inevitable but winners very viable so it evens out.

    If you don't see an optimal entry then there is no play. Don't force trades, odds in your favor or back to crossing your arms.

    Anek

     
  407. "Throughout all my years of investing I've found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting."

    Jesse Livermore
     
  408. Anek,

    I noticed a potential short on the chart today, and was unclear why you did not take it. I attached your chart with a couple arrows. The first arrow seems to be a candidate for a short.

    thanks!

    jeff
     
  409. Look how the resistance dots were pushed up constantly. Price had momentum to the upside, was probably waiting for those red dots to form horizontally and stabilize.

    On top of that I was just coming out of my previous short. Waiting for another pop up for a good fill is logical.

    Also notice how my shorts are usually taken when the resistance dots are pulled down instead of up. Increases accuracy, you want to short a pop up but the pop up must at least begin some DOWNSIDE momentum, or at least I try to.

    Examine what happened next, resistance dots stabilized, momentum shifted to the downside, and weeee off we go, and that one I took.

    Anek



     
  410. After massive consolidation around the LOWS in late night afterhours ES just broke resistance and moved a few ticks up.

    Expecting some rally after that extended congestion period I have elected to cover my shorts and call it a day/night.

    Forgot to mark the mini breakout out of consolidation at the end of the chart but should be obvious to notice.

    I'm very pleased with this trade and should be a good demonstration that when you are taking a position whether is long or short there should be a reason for bailing. Since we don't call tops and bottoms we can't say "I think it had enough" because you never know, let price action decide.

    This was a monster trade, aprox 13-14 full points, have not even calculated, all i know is that I need a bed.


    Have a good night all.

    Anek

    PS: Notice volume bar adjustment to make up for low AH activity.
     
  411. Sure enough the ES rallied to make higher highs confirming that price action and the trend are your best odds in trading.

    Continuation attached, yep bed time :)

    Anek
     
  412. Trading can be addictive. Woke up for a glass of water, saw a play and had to take it.

    Might take tomorrow off for a long weekend with the family. If so back on Monday.

    Be good, and follow that trend.

    Anek
     
  413. Hi Anek,
    Do you typically sell into strength on an uptrend(or set a very tight trailing stop once a price objective has been met)???

    I am finding that if you sell on a pullback,you will often sell very close to the 50% retracement of the prior swing...Or where we should be buying!!!

    I should mention that traditional indicators do have merit,just not the way we have been led to believe.I recently purchased a product which can run thru thousands of permutations on indicators,and more often than not,the best approach to applying an indicator was the exact opposite of "conventional wisdom".As an example,if one is trading %D,it is best to go long when %D crosses 80 to the DOWNSIDE.

    If you think about it,it is exactly the point you have been making.

    tao
     
  414. i had been following your writing for a few days...fascinated by what you are doing... can you tell me how you come up with those resistance dts.

    if possible give me the code for plotting those dots..


    if anybody else can share that would be gr8 ...i am trying to learn and on simulator for now.
     
  415. Two shorts so far this morning. We are forming a nice sym. triangle here.
     
  416. Theres the old saying that if a triangle breaks one way then reverses and goes out the other side you want to get on board. Sure was the case today but I didnt do any longs. Only had one more short late in the afternoon but overall a very nice day. I am now using a 50k volume chart for primary trend and taking trades in accordence with the hi/lo sequences I see there using a 10k chart for entry. The 5k is a little too fast for me. Cuts down on the number of trades but increases the winners. My win rate has been up pretty dramatically lately but Im sure its because of the overall downtrend. Hard not to make money in a strong downtrend unless your a new trade in which case its easy to lose in any kind of market. Been there, done that. Have a good weekend.
     
  417. What a symmetric triangle breakout that was. Still breaking out.....

    Only play I took today.

    Anek
     
  418. If you are using Tradestation, I found 3 different indicators that mark the interim highs and lows. If you are not using TS, can't help you.
     
  419. Hi,

    Ok, tried to take only trend trades today except for the one after the double top (which I show on chart below).....well guess what the result was, +$333 Net trading 1 NQ car only (NQ is only worth $20 a point as well !!)......but look at my exits, left multiple points on the table on almost every trade, I am talking a easy $1,000 day if I would have been able to capture just some of the move (I basically exited close to entry on most trades....too scalpish). Please look at my charts below with all entries and exits and let me know what ya think (red line shorts, green lines longs and the black lines are the exits with gain or loss posted next to them).

    Cheers and have a great weekend all :D

    http://i9.tinypic.com/4zcr0xx

    edit missed one: http://i16.tinypic.com/4z1jc6a

    http://i12.tinypic.com/62rrecz

    http://i16.tinypic.com/5xrau06

    http://i15.tinypic.com/661qwzp

    http://i18.tinypic.com/66ju3ns


    Edit: Had to come back and say MAN DID YOU SEE HOW MUCH I LEFT ON THE TABLE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL :D
     
  420. "Let's start with the UPTREND.

    We BUY a pullback and we are nimble with our target."

    Thanks, coach!

    +1737
     
  421. Mr. Symm sends his regards.
     

  422. Someone is paying attention in class.

    Job well done, love it.

    Anek
     
  423. Professor, look at my trades above, do I get a gold star for the day ??? :D



     
  424. Razor,

    I don't know how to add multiple attachments, perhaps someone can assist.

    Here is 1
     
  425. Razor,

    Here is 2
     
  426. Razor,

    Here is 3
     
  427. Razor,

    Here is 4
     
  428. Razor,

    Here is 5 and last.

    I think you kicked ass, love the small losses too.

    Cheers!

    Anek
     
  429. Hey,

    Not sure on the multiple attachments, what I do is just save the files to my desk top then go to www.tinypic.com and then upload the files there (takes 2 seconds) then they give you a link (like the ones I use) to post and you can post multiple links on one post.....by the way, huge thanks for going over my charts, greatly appreciated :D
     
  430. Man, huge thanks for your input on my trades, thanks again :D

    Off to the gym and then a few beers later, have a great weekend Anek and all :D

    Cheers :D


     
  431. WTG Razor. I wonder why you are using heikin ashi on single colored bars tho. Kind of defeats the purpose doesnt it? I am making this comment because I have found the color coding to be helpful, especially in hanging with a trade. Psycholically easier to stay with a trade when the color matches your position.
     
  432. Anek , thanks for this jornal .

    Triangle action made it a bit tough today for me , this was one clear set up though .
     
  433. Babe,

    That price action was optimal, nice chart.

    Anek
     
  434. Good way to describe it Gary, will have to remember that.

    Anek
     
  435. Tao,

    Interesting info.

    As far as selling into strenght, I base it on momentum. I try not to say, ok that's enough, I look at the bars, assuming I'm long if I see price going higher without stopping much there really is no reason to sell. This is where HA help for when panic, uncertainty and confusion of losing your profits might strike.

    You could also say ok if it breaks the low of the last 2-3 bars I'm out. However, in a sense this is what HA does. Just use what you feel more comfortable with, the color psychology of HA bars, as Gary so eloquently described, helps.

    Remember guys, I don't use HA bars for entry only for exit but the real skill here is analyzing momentum and the S/R surroundings as price is going. When it stops, why did it stop, should i wait, if so how long ? If it retraces, your stop better be there to secure your profits, not too tight, give it room, use past bars to have a logical exit.

    If you suspect the trend is much too strong but the trail stop got hit, you can always get back in at the next logical entry.

    Anek

     
  436. Bill,

    Krelisk.com has a LOT of price action based indicators they are coded by TRO. They are free, help yourself and don't forget to thank the guy.

    Anek
     
  437. Gary,

    I was not watching the markets around that time but I'm willing to bet when price broke out of the symm triangle the breakout/down was brutal.

    Those little bastards are powerful beasts and most definitely one of my favorite patterns in trading.

    They give birth to trends.

    Check the one I posted in the afternoon I did not want to trade today but when I saw it I placed my buy stops and short stops outside of the triangle and simply waited.

    When the buy got hit there was never an ounce of heat, it was simply a rocket launch explosion.

    Great patterns highly recommend them.

    In fact, you can make a living just by trading symm triangles. Load all four eminis, and when you see a valid one place your buy/short stops accordingly. By watching all four eminis the chances of them developing in different sizes increases, that way you get more than one or two a day.

    Sounds funny but if I have a dear friend that lives off them. Uses massive cars everytime he sees one and trades them like a robot with a pre-programmed trailing stop.

    Thanks for posting yours.

    Anek
     
  438. Hi Gary,

    This is an issue with esignal, if you look at my last couple of trades posted you will see the red and green heiken bars, for some reason esignal does not plot the heiken bars back further than a couple of hours so my trades from the morning all you are seeing is the regular price bars (which are all black and overlay the heiken bars, I made them all black so that I only concern myself with the heiken bars in red and green)....in real time the heiken bars print red and green so it's ok just is not good when looking back over the day and only seeing price bars.

    Cheers :D

     
  439. Razor,

    That was some good trading today. Looking back at your chart your biggest weakness seems to be letting the winners run.

    Take some time off during the weekend to examine/work on that.

    There is no reason to sell on strength unless there is sign of weakness and vice versa for shorts. Study those charts.

    It will make an insane difference in your trading if you pull it off.

    For me personally it was the difference between profitability and quitting my day job.

    Anek
     
  440. Cheers Anek for the kind words, I will review charts over the weekend as per usual :D




     
  441. I think Anec is right about letting winners run being the key to getting to the next level. I am getting better at it but still have a ways to go. Small wins cover small losses and keep you in the game as long as you avoid the larger losses but its the occasional home runs that build the account. For me its having faith in the fact that most of the time the last swing high/low (in the right circumstances) will be tested but you also have to learn (beaucoup screentime) to recognize from the tape when it is probably not going to make it.
     
  442. I like that. A lot.
     
  443. Razor,

    I look at this chart and it's painful for me to see this.

    Your entry was incredible but then I can't see a single reason for exiting where you did. Not one, in fact your exit would had been my entry.

    Do not be afraid of a small winning trade becoming a break even one. Move that stop accordingly and shoot for a good exiting reason.

    Your accuracy rate will decrease, less winners more break evens. However, do we play for small winners ? As bingo said all they would do is offset the small losses assuming you are disciplined enough to evade the nasty ones.

    A good winner once in a while will wipe 3-5 small losers without blinking twice.

    Remember, there is no shame in small winners small losses and breakevens, we need to escape the larger losses but we need large winners to make this game worth our risks and efforts.

    This is how your scalps should look like in terms of amounts and progression.

    -50
    -75
    +0
    +0
    +300
    +0
    -100
    +75
    -100
    +350
    +0
    -75
    -50
    -100
    +0
    +0
    +0
    +300

    The hard part is having the proper psychology to handle a bad streak of small losses and break evens while keeping your guard up.

    Nevertheless a small winner becoming a break even or even a small loss is a psychological hit.

    Still we are working as planned because our priorities are preservation of capital and making the green.

    This game is for the most part psychological never forget that.

    How do we protect our capital ? With small losses and break even trades while adjusting our stops in our favor, never against it.

    How do we make the green ? Not with extreme accuracy not with small winners but with medium to big winners AND with patience.

    In trading I don't believe in luck, I believe in a solid system, mental fortitude and the having a brass pair of balls to know and accept that the market is bigger than you, me and everyone else here but once in a while, if patient, we can be in perfect harmony with Mr. Market.

    You get the picture.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek

    PS: If your accuracy rate is high, then more power to you but this will only come after years and years of screen time.
     
  444. Hi Anek,

    Yea man I agree with everything you are saying 100% ! Looking over yesterdays' trades pains me to see how much I left on the table and how poor my exits were but I also like to look at positives and for the most part at least I actually traded with the trend most of the day instead of fighting the trend so that is a positive....also I think that I had some very good entries and my lossed were nice and small :D .....Goal for next week is to continue to trade with trend, small losses and focus on letting some trades run fully excepting that I will have more breakevens than winners.

    Thanks again for your input Anek :D

    Cheers :D


     
  445. Happy to help, I edited the message and added a few new bits as the kids were going commando in my office.

    ..and btw the previous post is precisely how you get to the next level.

    Time to study those charts, the same goes for me :)

    Anek

     
  446. LOL on the kids going commando....I don't have any kids of my own but have four godkids so I know what ya mean ! :D

    Off to study some charts as well......cheers :D



     
  447. My old man says preservation of capital is printing a chart, hitting the bathroom, studying it, then wiping your ass with it :p


    Anek
     
  448. ROFL......gotta love it :D


     
  449. A. I'm sitting here with beer and charts, usual Sat afternoon, and am puzzling over your averaging up. My quandry is if I see a strong move with momentum and I enter on a pullback, which I feel may be just part of a big move. At the next pullback I have 2 options, to take profit on the first entry, let a second pullback develop and enter with 2 contracts, and so on. That way I have banked something. The other option is to just hold onto the first and add a contract on the appropriate signal, while risking a full pullback to breakeven on the first. A little too complicated for me to backtest. Any thoughts on which might be the best in the long run?

    Thanks,
    Don
     
  450. Don,

    Averaging up, in my humble opinion, is only pertinent to those with good accuracy and a solid understanding of how the market and daytrading works.

    Now, it is possibly the last step to good fortune as far as phases and stages.

    The concept of only adding to a winning position is phenomenal because by definition it ensures that your trades are only about small losses, break evens and small to gigantic wins. Notice this is exactly how I suggest your money management results should be so it's highly compatible with AHG.

    Nevertheless, you need to be able to handle, from a psychological perspective, a streak of small losses and break evens, in many cases watching small winners become small losses. This is the negative aspect of averaging up. The positive aspect is the monumental winners it can and will provide if you do it right.

    When I average up, I add to a a winning position on retracements only if the major trend is intact and healthy always keeping a stop for ALL positions, this stop strategically placed at a definite change of a trend. As the trade keeps going in my favor, I keep adding to the position and adjusting the stop, the stop is the same for all brothers and sisters in the trade. As the trend develops the trend pivotal point obviously moves up as well.

    When the trend ends, you take a small loss/break even on the last position ONLY or last two depending how flexible you were and all the initial adds collect massive returns, especially the original one.

    It is the holy grail of money management systems BUT for seasoned traders not for someone who has just starting to get his/her feet wet with a new system.

    Averaging up is probably the most important reason as to why I was attracted to future's leverage. In fact, I've reached 20x with this technique and knowing I had secured profits on 85% of the adds felt like I was the king of the world. In the ES I usually trade between 3 to 10 cars depending on the stop risk of the trade. I have yet to average up aggresively on ES since I'm fairly new to the contract but when I'm comfortable on a great run this number could go all the way up to 40-50, without giving too much info on my personal total leverage. When averaging up, at least on the YM, I have used full leverage on the account without a single ounce of fear because of secured profits on most of the adds. When you get a nice run the profits are nothing short of a monstrosity.

    Obviously, if the trade does not go in your favor you don't even touch leverage or add to your position.

    Very powerful indeed but requires complete dominance of your psychology.

    Anek


     
  451. Averaging up illustration on the daily dow when it was trending strongly.

    No, I did not do this, I wish I had though.

    However, I have accomplished something similar during strong intraday trends.

    You might ask yourself, why not start with 12 and move your stop accordingly as higher highs and higher lows are made ?

    The answer is naturally risk management. If you were wrong from the start you take a full stop on a full leveraged position, not exactly how we want to trade and protect our capital.

    Averaging up is great stuff.

    Anek
     
  452. “When I am bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stock on a scale down, I buy on a scale up.”

    “Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don’t make a second unless the first shows you a profit. Wait and watch.”

    Jesse Livermore
     
  453. Yep, he certainly knew what to do albeit many times he did not do what he KNEW he had to do.

    Lack of discipline I guess, we have all visited that point sometime during our trading careers.

    Anek

     
  454. And that's what makes all our efforts worthwhile doesn't it.
    Couldn't but help think of this:

    The Children's Hour
    Poem lyrics of The Children's Hour by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.
    Between the dark and the daylight,
    When the night is beginning to lower,
    Comes a pause in the day's occupations,
    That is known as the Children's Hour.

    I hear in the chamber above me
    The patter of little feet,
    The sound of a door that is opened,
    And voices soft and sweet.

    From my study I see in the lamplight,
    Descending the broad hall stair,
    Grave Alice, and laughing Allegra,
    And Edith with golden hair.

    A whisper, and then a silence:
    Yet I know by their merry eyes
    They are plotting and planning together
    To take me by surprise.

    A sudden rush from the stairway,
    A sudden raid from the hall!
    By three doors left unguarded
    They enter my castle wall!

    They climb up into my turret
    O'er the arms and back of my chair;
    If I try to escape, they surround me;
    They seem to be everywhere.

    They almost devour me with kisses,
    Their arms about me entwine,
    Till I think of the Bishop of Bingen
    In his Mouse-Tower on the Rhine!

    Do you think, o blue-eyed banditti,
    Because you have scaled the wall,
    Such an old mustache as I am
    Is not a match for you all!

    I have you fast in my fortress,
    And will not let you depart,
    But put you down into the dungeon
    In the round-tower of my heart.

    And there will I keep you forever,
    Yes, forever and a day,
    Till the walls shall crumble to ruin,
    And moulder in dust away!
     

  455. A, thanks for input. I did spend some time on krelisk.com and was hoping if you can tell me which specific indicators you use to shows those dots. My question is it FIB retracement or some other indicators.

    I am using quotetrader, but if somebody can copy/paste tradestation indcator code that would be good enough...b

    being a programmer i hope i can decipher and code in quote tracker.

    AHG is still not very clear, doing lot of study using camtasia recorder. Now researching HA Candles.

    thanks in advance
     
  456. Bill,

    { _TRO_Dynamic_FibsSR - draw fibs between the Support/Resistance lines }

    {Attn: TradeStation
    if this indicator is posted on the TradeStation Forum, I, TheRumpledOne, did NOT post it there,
    so I can't be blamed for this indicator having my contact info.}


    {Programmer: Avery T. Horton, Jr. aka TheRumpledOne,
    gifts and donations accepted, PO Box 43575, Tucson, AZ 85733 }

    { © Copyright 2006 Avery T. Horton, Jr.}



    inputs:

    iStartDate(1060120), // if not intraday, date to start counting

    iPrice( Close ),
    iDecimals(2),
    iPeriods(5),
    // iHigh( HighD(0) ),
    // iLow( LowD(0) ),

    iFibPlot("R"), // "P" = projections, "R" = retracements
    //iFib1(.24),
    //iFib2(.38),
    iFib3(.50),
    //iFib4(.62),
    //iFib5(.76),
    //iFib1Color(darkcyan ),
    //iFib2Color(darkbrown),
    iFib3Color(darkgray),
    //iFib4Color(darkbrown ),
    //iFib5Color(darkcyan ),
    HighColor( red),
    LowColor( blue),

    idummy("");

    variables:

    //xFib1(iFib1),
    //xFib2(iFib2),
    xFib3(iFib3),
    //xFib4(iFib4),
    //xFib5(iFib5),

    tFib(""),

    xLowestLow(0),
    xHighestHigh(0),
    xRange(0),

    xPosition(0),

    oExtremeVal( 0 ),
    oExtremeBar( 0 ) ;


    variables:

    xBars( 0 ),
    xPeriods(05),
    xOldPeriods(0),

    Dynamic_R( 0 ),
    Dynamic_S( 0 ),
    OldDynamic_R( 0 ),
    OldDynamic_S( 0 ),
    PrevDynamic_R( 0 ),
    PrevDynamic_S( 0 ) ;


    {commentary variables}
    variables:
    xcomm(0),
    oComm1( "" ),
    oComm2( "" ),
    oComm3( "" ),
    oComm4( "" ),
    oComm5( "" ),
    oComm6( "" ),
    oComm7( "" ),
    oComm8( "" ),
    oComm9( "" ),
    oComm10( "" );


    { CALCULATIONS }




    If date this bar >= iStartDate
    then begin

    {save old values}

    If Dynamic_R <> PrevDynamic_R
    then OldDynamic_R = PrevDynamic_R;

    If Dynamic_S <> PrevDynamic_S
    then OldDynamic_S = PrevDynamic_S ;

    OldDynamic_R = PrevDynamic_R ;
    OldDynamic_S = PrevDynamic_S ;

    PrevDynamic_R = Dynamic_R ;
    PrevDynamic_S = Dynamic_S ;



    { high / low for period }



    xBars = xBars + 1;




    oExtremeVal = Extremes( L, iPeriods, -1, Dynamic_S , oExtremeBar ) ; // lowest low

    oExtremeVal = Extremes( H, iPeriods, 1, Dynamic_R , oExtremeBar ) ; // highest high



    If Dynamic_R <> H
    and Dynamic_R < PrevDynamic_R
    then if PrevDynamic_R <> 0
    then Dynamic_R = PrevDynamic_R;

    If Dynamic_S <> L
    and Dynamic_S > PrevDynamic_S
    then if PrevDynamic_S <> 0
    then Dynamic_S = PrevDynamic_S;

    {
    If iLow <> iLow[1]
    Or iHigh <> iHigh[1]
    then begin
    }
    If iFibPlot = "R"
    Or iFibPlot = "r"
    then begin


    xLowestLow = Dynamic_S ;

    xRange = Dynamic_R - Dynamic_S ;

    //xFib1 = iFib1 * xRange + xLowestLow;
    //xFib2 = iFib2 * xRange + xLowestLow;
    xFib3 = iFib3 * xRange + xLowestLow;
    //xFib4 = iFib4 * xRange + xLowestLow;
    //xFib5 = iFib5 * xRange + xLowestLow;
    end // If iFibPlot = "R"...
    else Begin

    // oExtremeVal = Extremes( iLow[iPeriods], iPeriods, -1, xLowestLow , oExtremeBar ) ; // lowest low

    // oExtremeVal = Extremes( iHigh[iPeriods], iPeriods, 1, xHighestHigh , oExtremeBar ) ; // highest high

    xLowestLow = Dynamic_S ;

    xHighestHigh = Dynamic_R ;

    xRange = xHighestHigh - xLowestLow;

    If close > OpenD(0)
    then begin
    //xFib1 = iFib1 * xRange + xHighestHigh; // high projections
    //xFib2 = iFib2 * xRange + xHighestHigh;
    xFib3 = iFib3 * xRange + xHighestHigh;
    //xFib4 = iFib4 * xRange + xHighestHigh;
    //xFib5 = iFib5 * xRange + xHighestHigh;
    end
    else begin
    //xFib1 = xLowestLow - iFib1 * xRange ; // low projections
    //xFib2 = xLowestLow - iFib2 * xRange ;
    xFib3 = xLowestLow - iFib3 * xRange ;
    //xFib4 = xLowestLow - iFib4 * xRange ;
    //xFib5 = xLowestLow - iFib5 * xRange ;
    end;

    end;

    // end; { If iLow <> iLow[1]... }



    //Plot1(xFib1 , "fib1", iFib1Color ) ;

    //Plot2(xFib2 , "fib2", iFib2Color ) ;

    Plot3(xFib3 , "fib3", iFib3Color ) ;


    //Plot4(xFib4 , "fib4", iFib4Color ) ;


    //Plot5(xFib5 , "fib5", iFib5Color ) ;



    Plot6(Dynamic_R , "Resistance", HighColor ) ;

    Plot7(Dynamic_S , "Support", LowColor ) ;


    end; // If date >= xStartDate


    CommentaryCl( "Dynamic_R: ", NumToStr( Dynamic_R , iDecimals) );

    CommentaryCl( "Dynamic_S: ", NumToStr( Dynamic_S , iDecimals) );
     
  457. Bingo,

    Beautiful stuff, right on too. Thanks.


     
  458. My dad had that one memorized. I know I had a place "in the round tower of my [his] heart."
     

  459. did you ever figure out why its doing that..i think i need t first study or have a primer on heiken ashi
     
  460. Assuming the entry was logical, that is what trailing stops are for, whether they are predetermined or managed manually.

    I prefer the manual approach.

    Anek
     
  461. Thanks indeed Anek for this insightfull thread. Thanks also to other participants.(Special thanks also to ST)

    I see that exits are paramount and maybe make the difference and I have some questions:

    If one has not the luxury of trading multiple contracts, how do you decide between taking profit objectives or letting the market take you out?

    Apart from obvious support/resistance, how do you decide your profits objectives? Some ratio to initial stop risk, some ratio to the previous move,....?

    Thanks again
     
  462. I found out that thats the way they work.:) They are not like regular candles. Still dont know why the trendlines move though. I downloaded Multicharts and am giving them a looksee.
     
  463. I trail stops once it gets going. I was referring to those times when it never gets going but starts stalling out shortly after entry. Sometimes this happens even with a logical entry. As you have said, the good ones usually go your way right away.
     
  464. I have found this to be true for me as well. For me it is a matter of watching BOTH the price action on the chart AND the activity that is going on in the DOM since I don't use any indicators. And actually when you are watching those two you really don't have time to be watching an indicator as well. Maybe one at the most.
     
  465. When price stalls too much start looking for options it's a sign of loss of momentum which could mean, reversal or congestion.

    Anek
     
  466. Some AH fun tonight.

    Managed to ride many of the little bullish upside moves but not in an optimal way.

    Attached little AH action reference for further study.

    Note to self: Don't forget this price action pattern it's valuable.

    Anek
     
  467. The very same consolidation from another angle. Can't get a better entry on this uptrend :)

    Anek
     
  468. What do you mean by breaking out by one tick? I can't find the one tick breakout from the low unless you are talking about the last and successful breakout?
     
  469. The consolidation pattern broke R by 1 tick and that's all it needed to breakout.

    Anek
     
  470. I did some scalps today, mostly based on S/R, some worked well some did not and when they did not small stop as always.

    I did not trade the morning because I was fairly active in the late hours of the night in afterhours and needed rest. Glad I did as the morning was quite choppy and afterhours was sensational.

    Attached the best play of the day for me, once again symm triangles prove to be one of the best patterns in trading.

    Anek
     
  471. Pretty choppy day alright. Only one trade for me. Shorted the double top when those three bars failed to take out 70.25 after stalling there earlier. Targeted the previous swing low.
     
  472. hi anekdoten, i wanted to try this out.....this is actually the same thing as what i am practicing, but minus the moving averages....But then if you see HH and HL, you dont need a moving average to tell you its in an uptrend. As they say, keep it simple! I have stochastics on my chart, but ill get rid of it as they do not help me.

    What i wanted to ask is I dont have time to trade all day, just an hour at the start of the day. You think this is feasible to trade for that time? I am talking between 1 to 2 trades
    Thanks
     
  473. You would be better of swing trading then.

    My 02 cents.

    Anek
     
  474. Great discipline staying out of the chop.

    Glad your one play worked, great job Gary.

    Anek
     
  475. Done for the day +$223 Net on 12 trades :D

    Scalped out to quickly on some trades again but working on holding longer still :D
     
  476. Hi Anek,


    Interesting thread.....somewhere you said you suck at swingtrading... why do you think that is? It seems your method should lend itself to that... actually, that's pretty close to what I am doing.
     
  477. Keep them coming.....

    Anek
     
  478. Vienna,

    Great question. Simple answer, I don't handle heat well and swing trading implies some modest heat is necessary and eventhough I could lower the car sizes to accommodate for that, the scalper in me conflicts with the stops.

    Possibly a psychological deficiency in me.
    However, I'm lucky enough to recognize it therefore I dont swing trade much.

    Gotta stay with your forte they say.... :)

    Anek
     
  479. Morning was tough, was lucky enough to evade it by being asleep due to intense afterhours otherwise I would have had some small losses there for sure.

    Great job on the green Razor.

    Anek
     
  480. Cheers :D

     
  481. 106 points in the YM today. This is as close to the zone as I've ever gotten.

    I haven't got the hang of entry with the 3sma+1 shift, though. Anek, may I ask how are you using it for entries?
     
  482. Tested it for one full day, did not find it useful.

    Anek
     
  483. Pardon my manners for not congratulating you on your results.

    Great stuff !

    Anek
     


  484. zero line cross over over ....simple profitable method was a great thread i still see those trades as the best trades .... not sure how others are doing
     
  485. Hi St,


    yor chart looks neat, would you mind posting code for printing those HH,HL,LL how many bars are you considering
     
  486. That long did'nt go anywhere for me , should have taken the previous two entry opportunities .
     
  487. After the initial opening thrusts, looks to be a bit choppy on the YM. HL and LHs, LLs and HHs...

    I guess I have a bit of a hard time waiting sometimes.

    And thanks for the congratulations, but thanks for the thread more importantly. I owe it to you and the peeps contributing here.
     
  488. What kind of charts are you using? Things were pretty clear on the 10k. Lovely morning.
     
  489. 500 constant volume and 1000 constant volume charts, and 5000 and 25000 constant volume charts for reference.

    Yeah, it's been really trendy after that choppy patch between 9:50 and 10:05 eastern. Guess I was looking for a reason to complain and/or post...:eek:

    This is the YM...
     
  490. Awesome morning. Looks like we are going to test the lows. If 1433 doesnt hold it could get really bloody.
     
  491. :D
     
  492. :D

    :cool:
     
  493. PM chart looks just like the AM chart. See if they can take out 33 before the day is over. The volume charts are pretty awesome in a trending environment.
     

  494. This looks like one of those obscene profits days for AHG method :eek:
     
  495. Hi,

    Net down -$24 on 22 trades NQ. Did not capatilize on a nice day but was down $200 by mid-day so happy with the end result. Back at it tomorrow :D

    Cheers :D
     
  496. Trades for 08.14.07

    What can i say. I love my system, I love to trade and I love days like today.

    ..and I wish anyone struggling will simply read this journal because the feeling is just splendid and quite lucrative.

    Longs

    5 Total

    1 Break Even

    2 Loser

    2 Winners (both home runs)


    Shorts

    14 Total

    3 Break Even ( I really wanted big runners today, price to pay)

    2 Losers

    9 Winners (4 averages up here)

    Total

    Sick profits and nothing and I mean nothing but what I've been teaching here.

    Anek

    PS: Two symmetric triangles NOT annotated on chart played for additional gains, both worked great, as usual.
     
  497. Razor, That is sure a lot of trades. What timeframe is this?

    A post of a chart with trades shown might provide you with some helpful comments. NOt from me, but perhaps from A.
     
  498. My chart downloading alright ?
     
  499. Hi bmw,

    Not really IMHO, look at Anek he had 19 trades today I did 22 not that far off, just need to keep improving but happy with a breakeven day (well -24) after being down $200 in the morning.

    Didn't mark up charts with trades today in real time so may do that tomorrow and post a chart for peops in here to see.

    Cheers :D

    PS: NQ, 400 volume bars


     
  500. No.
     
  501. Second try for chart.
     
  502. Cool !

     
  503. no problem downloading your chart....enclose the triangles...would love to see them,cheers:)
     
  504. V,

    Will do so after eating, could not even stop to eat today, market was too pretty :)

    Anek
     
  505. That chart is a really good demonstration of what its all about. The losers only add to the validity of the system. I only had 8 trades but the ones I did matched up with yours pretty closely.
     
  506. Almost every pullback trade is usually a triangle.
     
  507. Garry,

    I just can't tell the difference between a regular triangle and a symetrical one /hope there is one :)/,have to get used to them as they seem a good play..that's why I'm asking..
     
  508. The usual definition is sides of equal angles but as with everything in trading this is just an approximation. I think all three of this mornings first three trade could be consider sym. triangles. Anec may require a longer timeframe for his tho.
     
  509. Gary

    thanks a lot...just can't spot those little m-s :) , sort of triangle blind..need more practice I guess,thanks again..
     
  510. Remember, a symmetric triangle requires two higher lows and two lower highs.

    Price gets trapped, then you look out for escaping side and ride it.

    Anek
     
  511. Vinc

    Draw trendlines. What else have you got to do when youre not in a trade? Every trend change begins with a trendline break. There is no better indicator out there, imho.
     
  512. and I was just tying to figure out how you guys draw those lines! and you come up with definition.. Anek,I really appreciate your input,I think you woul be an exellent teacher :) if I ever make any money trading this method I think I'm going to donate some of it following your suggestions:D
     
  513. Here they are:

    Here is the Long Symm, real easy to spot.

    Anek
     
  514. Here is the Short Symm, slightly harder to spot due to tight congestion. To be honest I'm not sure if this even qualifies.

    You can see how the Long Symm was more obvious to detect.

    Thought it had been an additional play but it's one of the shorts I took on the main chart was this one as well, so that leaves only the long symm as the extra play.

    Anek
     
  515. If you become an expert at detecting symmetric triangles you cannot lose in the long run if you play them right.

    Here is a scenario:

    Since they are semi rare....

    Load NQ

    Load YM

    Load ER2

    Load ES

    Two different time frames to increase chances of them developing. Say one LCD for each emini, a smaller timeframe, and a slightly bigger one.

    Using some sort of programmatic alert you could just wait patiently for them or just go with the multiple monitors approach.

    The reason I like them so much is because their rate of success is above 50% and their targets can be exponentially bigger than the stops. And that's the right way to trade.

    As I said in the journal I know people who live off them, they trade nothing else. They wait patiently for the formation, very lucrative stuff.

    Anek
     
  516. yeah,the first one looks like double bottom to me.. that's why I can never be sure..
     
  517. Here is a play I took months ago in the YM. It worked out so well I took a screenshot and kept it for references. Glad I did cause now I can show you guys.

    Anek
     
  518. Anec

    Could you include the timebar in your charts please. The only ones I see that fill the bill are around 9:34 and 14:58 EST.
     
  519. Vinc,

    Not exactly the second bottom is slightly higher. Needless to say a double bottom in itself is a bullish formation so that gives you some sort of bias, not surprisingly it broke to the upside.

    Anek
     
  520. FWIW

    Tradestation has a Penant Breakout Showme study that can be adjusted to pick up some symmetrical triangles...

    However, I believe the best software on the market is "your own Eye"...imho
     
  521. the last one you posted reminds me of a wolfe wave in a way and I don't mean to be ironic here..well,whatever..be it d.bottoms or w.waves..if it brings us some green means it works:)
     
  522. Gary,

    I took two, not at all three.

    Just like I suck at swing trading due to the necessity of larger stops I have trained my eye to spot them. Again, got to concentrate on your forte.

    Anek
     
  523. Monti,

    I have tried the Pennant show me but as you said there is nothing like the eye.

    I have been unsuccessful at obtaining an ELD for Tradestation the facilates the search for them, aside from the show me you mentioned.

    I can spot them with ease but I could use assistance if I was looking at four eminis with two different timeframes.

    Could you please post the settings you got for the pennant show me ? Perhaps it can be useful to me.

    Thank you.

    Anek
     
  524. OK Thx. I see the third one now. My charts are compressed quite a bit more than yours. I will try exanding my charts a bit.

    edit: Also clearer on the 5k. Might try that too. Too much fun.:)
     
  525. We interrupt this journal to celebrate and welcome the return of Diamond Dave to Van Halen!

    /drool

    Anek
     
  526. A 3 period sma is so fast that it almost sits at the middle of every bar, even if it is shifted right by 1 bar. The shifted SMA notion came about from the 'simple profitable' thread. If I recall, the ma there was a 9 period sma shifted right by 3 bars. This is a much more useful reference, imo.

    In a downtrend, price pulls back and starts to form another LH, then you can look for your entry when price crosses or closes below the 9sma+3. These crosses match up nicely with stoch crosses, and they keep your eye on prices instead of another indicator.

    Kudos to Anekdoten and others for a thoughtful, generous and educational discussion!
     
  527. Anek..actually, I don't use that canned Tradestation showme...I simply "eyeball" the chart...the default setting can, however, be adjusted....

    Symmetrical triangles appear to show up easily (FOR ME) on the 15 minute and 7 minute BAR chart....and I emphasize BAR CHART....place both charts side by side....They appear more clearly on bar charts (FOR ME) than Candlestick charts.

    Also, they tend to form when the market quiets down..

    On a side note....very nice thread you have here....
     
  528. Thank you for suggestion and kind words.

    Anek
     
  529. No shame in small losses!

    Keep practicing.

    Anek
     
  530. Anek,

    I grew up on Sammy, 51/50 still rocks. :) I would be surprised if they actually complete the tour.


    Your entries often are excellent. If you could shed some light on how you can consistenly enter at the right time I would appreciate it.

    1. Do you sometimes pick a price to buy/sell based on 50% retracement percentage if it lines up well with a pivot/trendline?

    2. You mentioned before that you read tape. Are you entering the market sometimes based on time and sales action on a retracement?

    3. Do you ever place stop market orders above/below resistance(on a retracement) to enter the market?

    4. Do you use a smaller timeframe (tick/volume) chart to identify when to enter the market?


    thanks!
     
  531. Razor...you should also probably focus on the old adage "let your profits run"....

    A metric that I use is that if I am not profitable after 10 trades, then I'm doing something wrong, and 8 times out of 10, it is because I'm not letting my profits run....

    I don't know if you are doing this or not...but the absolute worse thing a trader can do is sell a large part of his position at a close profit target (ex., 4, 5, 6 ticks)....trust me..it's a zero sum to losing game....the money is made on the large winners
     
  532. Wise words.
     
  533. VH did some good music with Sammy but some stuff I could do without. The Roth era was amazing, I welcome the reunion with all my heart.

    1) Yes absolutely, anticipate that with limit orders. Sometimes I miss it sometimes I get it. If I miss it I never ever chase it.

    2) I examine where the pressure is located, no doubt. Time and Sales helps.

    3) Absolutely, especially on symmetric triangles and consolidation breakouts. Many times I place the short AND the long stop orders at the same time.

    4) I use two charts for ES. 5000 shares or 610 tick, been comparing lately. On top of that I use a 240 min chart for bigger picture orientation.

    Friend of mine has been using AHG with CCI for entries, look into that, it might help.

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  534. Anec

    Do you have the dynamic s/r code in an eld file? The charting I am using will import TS easylanguage files but Im not sure how to just put it in there with the code you posted awhile back.
     
  535. Here you go.

    Anek
     
  536. Thanks. Training my eyes to pay more attention to those triangles.:)
     
  537. AHG style trade caught triangle break out
     
  538. Just noticed the YM making a higher high, and the ES did not. For those trading the YM it may pay to keep a chart of the ES up, as it seems to be a more reliable indicator of moves. :)
     
  539. Public announcement:

    THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND :D
     
  540. Hi,

    I have a buddy that has TS, I have esignal. Can someone with TS help me with where to tell him to find the Heiken Ashi bars or post the formula.

    Cheers :D
     
  541. Today had it all. Pullbacks. Triangles. A beautiful double top (my favorite trade in a downtrending market). And still making new lows. Daytraders paradise.
     
  542. Don Perignon, on me!

    Anek
     
  543. Razor,

    Here you go.

    Anek
     
  544. Cheers :D


     
  545. One last triangle for dessert.
     
  546. Gary,

    ...and what a beauty it was!

    Anek
     
  547. Net down -$372 on 19 trades NQ, was up $200 by first hour of the day, for some reason got this bias in my mind that we would be up huge today, proceeded to fight the trend all day (yup, stupidity) and viola ! down huge on the day......tomorrow is another day.....we shall see...

    Cheers :D
     
  548. Trades for 08.15.07

    They say a picture is worth a thousand words, therefore I'll let my chart do the talking.

    Once again, nothing but the system.

    Anek
     
  549. Awesome, I am such a putz fighting this darn trend.....



     
  550. Razor

    Until you stop fighting the trend, I'm not responding to your messages or PMs.

    If you are going to fight the trend or make predictions you are on the wrong journal my friend.

    You know what you have to do, and when you do it you either make money or lose small. WTF Man!

    Hope it helps.

    Anek
     
  551. I hear ya and don't blame ya......

     
  552. Ha Raz,
    I aint no expert what so ever. But IMHO if your up $200 net in first hour and only trading 1 contract on NQ I would call it a day and go to the Lake or play XBox !!
    Or at least just switch to Sim. if you want to keep learning throughout the day.
     
  553. His brother Dom makes a better product.

    PS. Don't fight the trend!
     
  554. I stand corrected, thank you sir.

    Amen
     
  555. Yeah, I was down -39 points on YM this morning. Frustrating. Took a nap for hour half. Awoke refreshed.

    And WOW what an afternoon !! The last couple hours of Trading is what implementing AGH is all about. A Beautiful Beautiful downtrend with so many ample opportunities to short the popups !! Just remember to "be nimble with your target" :cool:

    The morning was stll a downer since I usually don't ever have such a bad session.
    But I Ended up +1 for the day after racking up +40 points in last 1.5 hour of day !!





    P.S. Anek, heres something that might add another tool in the Arsenal with the HH HL method. Of course identifying trends during the day is what we are looking for. And I have taken it one step further with what I learned from Alex at Puretick 5 months ago. That is at beginning of day identify the tone of the Market by using Filters. This is more of a general trend for the day using daily Pivot point, 15 min Range, A/D, . And once the Filters has been established whether it be Bullish or Bearish then trade the HH HL Method. But do it in accordance with the Filters for the day. If we are way below Daily Pivot Point and A/D is very Bearish then adjust your position size accordingly. So for instance if we see an intra day HH HL intra day Trend on a Bearish filter day we might enter long on a pullback but only with 1/2 of our regular position size. But when we later in day see LH LL we might short a pop up with full position sizing since filters have been established (and have remained) as bearish. And we are just putting the odds more in our favor by trading with the general trend.


    Just a little tidbit I thought that I would share that has been helpful in mitigating risk for me and maiming profitability.
     
  556. You guys are killing me. So overcomplicated. All a good trader needs is an SMA and know how to draw a trendline. Made 28 easy points on the ES today and plenty other days.
    [​IMG]
     
  557. Last sentence should be "maximizing" not "maiming" profitability :p
     
  558. Jimmy,

    Play it out let me know how it goes for you.

    Frankly, I like to keep it simple, the more crap I add the more conflicting stuff I get.

    For what is worth I don't use any filter except once in a while I like to look at the slope of A-D or it's value to see how drastic things are in terms of power or weakness.

    Please try it out and report back if you can.

    For now, I feel quite at home just with highs and lows plus Trendlines, it is really all you need.

    Say the market is up 100 points, clearly above daily pivot, above the 15 min opening range, above yday's high, the A-D are positive, etc etc etc but the market decides it had enough. Sounds familiar ?

    The filters will give you a bias, and my friend, THAT IS THE LAST THING YOU NEED.

    Needless to say, don't ditch something because I said so, trading is very personal.

    Thanks,
    Anek
     

  559. Appreciate the feedback. In all honestly, I still use the Filters but in last 2 weeks since studying the journal here I have not been as stringent with them as I was once before. I will still use it just as a general guide of where the Market is at and where the money is flowing. But I am starting to re- train my brain to to realize it is to my advantage sometimes to trade against the Filters if a HH HL trend demands it.
     
  560. Here's another approach: turn off everything on your chart and just watch price. Don't do any trades, don't watch CNBC, don't watch Bloomberg, don't read ET posts ,don't read this thread. Don't do anything. JUST WATCH.
    Then maybe after a week of watching ask yourself: If I want to take money out of this market what do I need to do and where do I need to be?
     
  561. I have found Trin, AD, Ticks to be a total waste of time for trading ES. Do some studies. These things follow ES rather than lead it. This is why they are called FUTURES!! They lead the way:D
     

  562. Ditto.....Market Internals are lagging....and sometimes inconclusive...trin going down..but market going down too...been there done that....

    Follow the price action.....the market is either making higher highs and lows....or it is not...internals can't be as straightforward as that..

    I got really good at reading internals but once i started reading the TREND of the market...i realized that internals are not necessary..and are in fact a crutch...in my humble opinion of course
     
  563. ES Short update.

    ES currently at 1409, still short on a semi heavy averaged up position that began and 1433.25 but still enough leverage available to press it further.

    Will consider adding to the position on pop ups that do not make a HH from my last add, if that happens I get stopped out on all adds and collect the gains.

    Hopefully some panic kicks in soon, major levels were broken. At this point trading with markets money. Not calling a bottom, I'll let the market tell me when it had enough on this play.

    Anek
     
  564. A. I am still having a problem with the process of adding positons. Only working on this with sim right now. After the first swing is made, there is a clear place to place a stop, but I am not clear on your actions during the first few minutes of a trade.

    When, do you move to a break even stop, or lower original stop, if ever.

    Sorry, if you have already answered this earlier.

    I have made considerable progress with your help. There is nothing on my screen but HA and trendlines as needed.

    Thanks,j
    Don
     
  565. Don,

    I add to a position when I feel the trend is stronger than usual. For instance, today's double top followed by furious downside pressure on a bearish market was a good one.

    I usually begin to add to the position when price pops but still in a trend where the stop of the second position can secure profits on the first position.

    Remember that I use the same stop for all adds including the original but it is trailed. Usually this stop is a HH or a LL depending on orientation.

    Anek

     
  566. Cuttin the BS and trading strictly with the trend tomorrow and in the future unless confirmed trend change (by either HH and HL or LL and LH) double bottom or double top.....gonna mark my trades on the chart and post in here in the afternoon.....like Anek has said in the past, time to stop trading like a rookie (trying to catch bottoms and tops) and trade like a pro with the trend.......overall I am not going to get too down on myself, since I started trying to make some changes to my trading with Anek's methods my results have not been horrible IMHO:

    -76
    -28
    +43
    +228
    +36
    +27
    +323
    -216 <--- fought strong trend
    +139
    -441 <--- fought strong trend
    +333
    +223
    -24
    -372 <--- fought strong trend

    Net Gain after all commish and fees $195 trading 1 NQ contract ($5 a tick) roughly 8 - 24 trades per day. This is over 14 days or roughly 3/4 of a trading month. Yes I will admit there have been some incredible opportunities that I have missed because of fighting the trend on certain days but I have to try and stay positive and focus on always improving rather than beating myself up too much. One thing to note is my large losing days (like today) are days when there has been the best opportunity to make huge gains becuase these are the days of strong trend that I have been reluctant to join and instead have fought....again on the positive side these days can go from big losers to big winners by following the trend......ok, my rant is over and back to work tomorrow :D

    Cheers to anyone listening and for all the good feed back in this thread.....Anek I am gonna do your method justice from now on :)

    Cheers :D
     
  567. Razor,

    I wonder why there is no:

    +300 <----Fought strong trend
    +400 <----Fought strong trend

    Makes you wonder.

    If done correctly, and it's no rocket science either, the only day that can kill AHG is an extremely choppy day full of reversals or the trader him/her self.

    We haven't seen one like that in a long time, the market has been nothing but beautiful lately.

    Now, here are a few areas where you should watch out because they can be difficult for trend following traders:

    Lunch hour (2 hour min)

    Friday Afternoon, during regular market conditions, not this insanity (I mean that in a good way)

    Friday OEX, triple witching all those crazy days.

    Hope it helps and btw, for what it is worth, I can feel from your previous charts, that there is a great trader inside you, it's just your discipline that sucks ass.

    Cheers :D

    Anek
     
  568. Thanks for the positive feedback Anek.....watch the incredible improvements....... :D

    Cheers :D



     
  569. Here is why you try to call tops and bottoms

    "Greed, what we are trying to do is pick the start of a trend the other way so we can get it all. It is part of the mental problem of "I can't join the trend now it has to be about over" but if I pick the start it will run for a long time"

    Author's identity protected :)

    Anek
     
  570. :D


     
  571. Korea down 7.25% :eek: