ADP Lowers the Bar for Employment #'s on Fri - Any # > +1 Should Rally Markets

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, May 2, 2007.

  1. Once again, the bar has been substantially lowered.

    ADP is projecting employment gains of 64,000, to be released this Friday.

    The government is projecting a 100,000 employment gain number.

    The bar has been lowered sufficiently. It's a no-lose proposition.

    Any jobs gains should rally the markets.

    Anything less than these lowered expectations, or, should job growth be negative, the markets will rally anyways, as interest rate cuts will then be baked into the market cake.

    Statistics are fun and useful.
     
  2. S2007S

    S2007S

    I saw this number today and just laughed. Enough is enough with these numbers. There not even accurate. How many times a year do they revise these figures. Every single month they revise them higher.
     
  3. Ok, ADP is projecting 64K in private payrolls, add back in government payrolls of 25K (avg recent monthly gain) and you get 90K. That is 10K from economists consensus of 100K. The government does not provide estimates. 10K off = meaningless.
     
  4. 08:34 CLX Clorox beats by $0.11, ex items; guides in-line for FY07; isses FY08 growth guidance (67.76 )

    Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.88 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.77; revenues rose 7.3% year/year to $1.24 bln vs the $1.2 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $3.20-3.36, ex items vs. $3.25 consensus; sees FY07 revenue growth of 3-5% which equates to roughly of $4.78-4.87 bln vs. $4.85 bln consensus. For fiscal year 2008, the company anticipates sales growth in the range of



    OK WHO CAN TELL ME WHATS WRONG WITH THE ABOVE? ITS WHATS BEEN GOING ON THE LAST YEAR WITH EARNINGS. OK CLASS WHATS THE ANSWER? THE ANSWER IS EVEN THOUGH CLX BEAT BY 11 CENTS THEY DIDN'T RAISE THERE FULL YEAR EST'S. THIS ASSURES THAT CLX BEATS THE CRAP OUT OF LOW BALL EST'S THAT THEY PROVIDE. IT'S LIKE A STUDENT TELLING THE TEACHER WHAT GRADE HE'LL MAKE AND HE LOW BALLS THE GRADE AND BEATS EVERY TIME. THE ANALYSTS ARE STOOGES THAT JUST PUT DOWN WHAT THE COMPIES TELL THEM TOO. AS LONG AS THE MARKET REWARDS THIS IT WILL GO ON
     
  5. Yes, it's true that the ADP stats don't include government employment numbers.

    The point remains, though (I think).

    The job numbers can't be perceived in a negative light by the markets, no matter what they turn out to be.
     
  6. Absolutely. Bullish is bullish in this mkt, bearish isn't.
     
  7. MattF

    MattF

    A substantial number of jobs would have to be LOST for the market NOT to gain...

    oh wait, they'd go down and then everyone would buy the dip during lunchtime :D

    Those #'s look pathetic...64K in this COUNTRY added in one month?!?! That's barely 1,000 jobs per state on average.

    No wonder why it's tough...it's a literal dog fight out there for just 1 gig somewhere...

    That and the government's numbers used to be so sky-high it was also pathetic...then they quietly stopped fanfaring them :p
     
  8. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    congrat, sound like you can handle the truth:D