•China Projects `Grim' Job Market, Deeper Impact to Come From Global Crisis

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ByLoSellHi, Jun 3, 2009.

  1. All I have to add to this excellent and honest assement is that at LEAST WE HAVE CHINA'S GOVERNMENT TO THANK FOR BEING HONEST AND CANDID WITH US ABOUT THE CURRENT TRUE STATE OF AFFAIRS.

    Carry on.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a721bsK5OmLE

    China Sees ‘Grim’ Job Market, Deeper Impact From Global Crisis
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    By Bloomberg News

    June 3 (Bloomberg) --
    China’s government said unemployment is worsening, a quick rebound in trade is becoming less likely, and the nation is yet to feel the full effects of a global slump.

    The foundations for an economic recovery aren’t solid, the State Council said in a statement on a government Web site today. Trade faces “unprecedented difficulties,” Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said separately.

    Falling exports dragged China’s economic growth to the slowest pace in almost a decade in the first quarter as the government rolled out a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package. The Shanghai Composite Index has climbed 52 percent this year as investors bet that Premier Wen Jiabao can engineer a recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy.

    “Rising unemployment, if not properly addressed, could be a time-bomb in China’s economy,” said Tao Dong, Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group AG. Still, airing problems may signal that the government is confident that it’s in control of the situation, Tao said.

    China will announce more measures to help labor-intensive industries, the State Council said, describing the job market as “grim,” with registered unemployment climbing and new jobs shrinking compared with a year earlier. The registered urban jobless rate was 4.3 percent at the end of March, a figure that doesn’t account for unemployed migrant workers.

    Exports and imports are set to decline in the first half and the outlook for the rest of the year is not optimistic, Zhong said in a statement about export credit insurance posted on the commerce ministry’s Web site. He didn’t specify why a speedy recovery in trade is becoming less likely.

    Shipments Plunge

    The World Trade Organization in March predicted a 9 percent drop in global commerce this year.

    China, the world’s second-biggest exporter, has cut export taxes, boosted credit and insurance for overseas sales and pledged to keep its currency stable as manufacturers weather the collapse in global demand. Overseas sales plunged 22.6 percent in April from a year earlier, the sixth straight monthly decline.

    Zhong’s comments contrast with signs that the outlook for shipments is improving. An index of export orders increased to 50.1 in May, the first expansion in 11 months, a government backed manufacturing index showed.

    “China’s exports may start to grow as early as January after the major economies such as the U.S. and Japan gradually recover later this year,” said Xing Ziqiang, a Beijing-based economist at China International Capital Corp.

    Falling exports are the biggest challenge for China’s economy, the State Council said on May 27.

    For Related News and Information: Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO> Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO> For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>
    Last Updated: June 3, 2009 06:58 EDT
     
  2. "“Rising unemployment, if not properly addressed, could be a time-bomb in China’s economy,” said Tao Dong, Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group AG. Still, airing problems may signal that the government is confident that it’s in control of the situation, Tao said.

    China will announce more measures to help labor-intensive industries, the State Council said, describing the job market as “grim,” with registered unemployment climbing and new jobs shrinking compared with a year earlier. The registered urban jobless rate was 4.3 percent at the end of March, a figure that doesn’t account for unemployed migrant workers.

    Exports and imports are set to decline in the first half and the outlook for the rest of the year is not optimistic, Zhong said in a statement about export credit insurance posted on the commerce ministry’s Web site. He didn’t specify why a speedy recovery in trade is becoming less likely.

    Shipments Plunge

    The World Trade Organization in March predicted a 9 percent drop in global commerce this year.

    China, the world’s second-biggest exporter, has cut export taxes, boosted credit and insurance for overseas sales and pledged to keep its currency stable as manufacturers weather the collapse in global demand. Overseas sales plunged 22.6 percent in April from a year earlier, the sixth straight monthly decline.
    "
     
  3. Already posted here but I will post it again.:)

    09/02/04

    Therefore, it is clear that China travels today the road to Depression. How severe this depression will be, will critically depend on two developments. First, how much longer the Chinese government will pursue the inflationary policy, and second how doggedly it will fight the bust. The longer it expands and the more its fights the bust, the more likely it is that the Chinese Depression will turn into a Great Depression. Also, it is important to realize that just like America’s Great Depression in the 1930s triggered a worldwide Depression, similarly a Chinese Depression will trigger a bust in the U.S., and therefore a recession in the rest of the world.



    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2004/0902.html