Home > Markets > Options > AAPL Earnings this Tuesday - 580/600/620 Weekly Butterfly only $3.50

AAPL Earnings this Tuesday - 580/600/620 Weekly Butterfly only $3.50

  1. AAPL Earnings this Tuesday - 580/600/620 Weekly Butterfly only $3.50

    More details on Tuesday at 3:30pm EST. The exact strikes will depend on were AAPL is trading at that time, but I'm looking at plus/minus $20.00 to the ATM strike. Maximum risk about $350.00, maximum gain about $1650.00. Maximum loss is at <$580 or >$620, maximum gain is at $600 on Friday at expiry.

    [​IMG]

    Will update on Tuesday with exact trade.


    :)
     
  2. hey... so i've been looking at a few butterflys.. i was thinking all related to cost to reward and a little positive bias butterfly lined up with the highest open interest strike.. i think they will beat earnings. as a percentage they usually do with a 2 to 5 percent move in the stock.. i'm thinking even if it opens at 630 something it will draw back due to the closing of alot of calls that are in profit.. thats just a thought.. highest open interest strikes are 620 and 610... here are two trades to exploit those ideas..


    <a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/aaplbutterflyearnings72.png/'><img src='http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/3623/aaplbutterflyearnings72.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>

    <a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/835/aaplwidebutterfly723.png/'><img src='http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/3357/aaplwidebutterfly723.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>
     
  3. watch how these options implode over night/ or not

    <a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/802/aapldaybeforeearnings.gif/'><img src='http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/6395/aapldaybeforeearnings.gif' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>
     
  4. AAPL 580/600/620 Weekly Butterfly only $2.95
    • AAPL at $599.42
    • Buy 1 580 Call @ $29.05
    • Sell 2 600 Calls @ $16.90 x 2 = $33.80
    • Buy 1 620 call @ $7.70
    • Total Debit $2.95
    • Maximum loss $295.00, maximum gain $1,705.00
    Maximum loss if AAPL is <$580 or >$620, maximum gain if AAPL is at $600 this Friday at expiry.


    :)
     
  5. Earnings gambler guessing here we go! Haha
     
  6. EXCELSIOR!
     
  7. flippin' dat EBT for cheap butterflies, commish, a lottery ticket (just one, cause i ain't no sucka, right) and a 40oz.

    put on this afternoon as the stock traded ~$600, a few 580/585/590, and couple 610/615/620, weeklies, as you know i can't wait. split and flip that strangle range on it's head, took that MMM then halved it, and placed the flies about there. can drop one or two tomorrow, let the last one or two ride for some friday opex excitement.

    about $270 including commish for the round trip, all 6 legs. was showing $150+ at the close (but the p/l realtime is quite fluid.) ... and of course no numbers yet,.. ah,..

    AAPL's out, $575 print,.... $566,..

    hope all managed well,... don't worry about me, i got a beer and a lottery ticket left, remember? ... and i can always wait till friday. ha!
     
  8. I am in the Jan13 400/600/800 fly from $102 risk (iron).
     
  9. +1

    Good call.
     
  10. We see! I model maybe $500 per, but I plan on holding half through the remainder of the year or on a touch of neutrality (or implied fwd).
     

  11. I have been curious about this for a while; so with AAPL down will you leg out of fly and look to convert to a potentially more profitable trade, rather than wait for AAPL to see 600 in 6 months
     
  12. does the implied of back months after earnings collapse such that it might be reasonable to take a position long vol after earnings vol implode? i mean stocks seem to just sit after busting a blowing up for a while on lower then historic volatility. or at least i've observed a few times.. is it reasonable to think its a good time to position long volatility?
     
  13. AAPL @ $570.00 during AH trading, looking for a bounce to >$583 by Friday - with 3 trading days left that is possible. I will update later on in the week.

    :)
     
  14. Yeah, you do that, Sport. $568 last.
     
  15. I am looking for 4-5 tomorrow. I will cover a bit but hold the remainder, possibly until expiration (tax-deferral), but with an intermediate goal of a strike touch (at lower vol). AAPL reports in the Feb13 series, so only one Q report in the interim.
     
  16. the closing of all the in profit puts will most likely cause the stock to pop tommorrow a little
     
  17. thats a super wide butterfly.. i'm never even thought about doing that before
     
  18. [​IMG]
     
  19. Hi atticus,

    I was wondering if you could walk us through the exact setup you have with that and what you look for in such a butterfly (i.e. do you look at percent chance of staying in a range, risk/reward, etc).

    If you don't want to give your exact details, maybe you could just lay out a simple example for people who don't do too many of these (like me).

    BTW - I almost put on a weeklies bull put spread on AAPL today (580-575) thinking they would probably do ok - glad I decided it would just be gambling and didn't do it!

    Thanks,

    JJacksET4
     
  20. I put a 550545 spread on.figuring it would have to be catastrophic to.get down that low
     
  21. <a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/809/butterfly567.png/'><img src='http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/7600/butterfly567.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>
     
  22. I didn't do the 5/6/7, did you?
     
  23. Too much gamma in the front months. Obviously too little vega. The tenor was chosen as it was inside the third reporting date, and I expect vol to drop to 28.xx% on Oct and Jan to match. As you widen you gain vegas. I chose 600/610 due to rates(div), but obv it's embedded. Basic stuff.
    [​IMG]
     
  24. picked up the 580/585/590 (puts) weekly for .20, it closed at .52,.. what are my shots at still selling half the position for .40+ tomorrow and letting the rest ride till opex?

    at a loss how to figure the fly might open/trade tomorrow, with the IV crush and being through all the strikes $15-20 on the other side now. guess a greekless guy like me just has to wait for the aapl option market maker's computers to figure it out for me come tomorrow.

    should've stuck with the simpler 585/580 debit spread in the $1.50-$1.60 range, even with the crush, it should open up 70%+. if you were biased to the negative and expected the priced in $34 move, it was that woulda, coulda, shoulda trades for the release, in hindsight.

    who knows what the open holds though, maybe japan will print some yen to buy AAPL shares again. iProducts sales are now of a central banking importance, who actually *uses* an ounce a gold for a year or two, then buys another to replace it?
     
  25. I think you will need a bounce past $580, with three days to go you might get it. It's almost a free position so you have nothing to lose.

    :)
     
  26. whats gold have to do with it... are you just referring to it as a non working asset? i like the flys because they are such a cheap investment/reward ratio.. but the idea is to be able to be wrong quite abit and the skewed pay off of options to make sense of the bad decisions.. ahh i am a piker to! haha but i don't know why i like selling credit spreads and buying ratio backspreads, and flys...
    gold blew up because dollars became less valuable as the printing machine came out..
     
  27. yeah you have 20 bucks per combo out.. unless you bought 1000 of them.. your good! let it ride go for the big pay off.. i would bet that all the closing profitable put trades is going to cause it to jump up a little.. i seriously don't think major players are dumping on this news.. game hasn't changed with apple..
     
  28. I am selling AAPL 560 PUT for July 27 at this point. I believe AAPL at this level is very attractive.
     
  29. Up $600, in line with expectation. Holding for the eventual touch of neutrality.
     
  30. That wasn't a bad move down considering the run up before earnings
     
  31. Risked $295 to make $5. Sweet.
     
  32. so based on your criticism .. you have some wonderfully better trade on?
     
  33. Have been short bulk 2013 for more than one year.

    Sold Aug 575p $15 vs 578.80 today. Covered 2/3rds via straddle @ 26.55-27.00 Will ride the balance.
     
  34. I lost 70-80 dollars on spreads cumulatively. The credit spread I bought back at a profit and the butterfly was a wash.. I trade two accounts.. not a big deal both average to a good risk reward. Sometimes you lose..
     
  35. That's not clear. Short premium? Short as far as direction? Your long a straddle covering your short put? I haven't figured out how to play earnings. So I keep my bets really small and limit my risk
     
  36. Not clear to me. Sorry not trying to be a d6ick
     
  37. Homeboys 580-600-620 fly is about to go in the money
     
  38. AAPL @ 579.23
    P/L $44.00

    [​IMG]

    :)
     
  39. Yes, 2013 is short premium, bias long delta and short put skew. This requires significant capital. The Aug trade was a synthetic straddle closed out by an actual straddle. Leaves one in a reversal.
     
  40. Not bad not bad!
     
  41. AAPL trades for today.
     
  42. Holy crap that's a lot of options...
     
  43. Check out the 496 lot asswipe. Was immediatley $1 lower after the sale.
     
  44. Prove it.
     
  45. Now will you go back to your cave??? I tried to sell 501x. Some "2-lot market faker" got 5 of em.
     
  46. We both know that cust number isn't you... and you're going to get me the $50k you lost to me.
     
  47. You should be quite familiar with exchange rules. "Subject to immediate acceptance". Was not a GTC order like you imagine it to be. How convenient that you deleted your post. At least it became a part of my response.
     
  48. And WHAT? cust number??? I don't happen to see one as I hid that column from your nosey eyes. Those are order numbers.
     
  49. I am aware that you work in the back-office, hence the clearing number that has absolutely nothing to do with you and your book. We're speaking hypothetically here as you don't have (a book).

    Where's my $50k, bitch?
     
  50. Just a normal day. Just one name.
     
  51. Hahaha, f*cker! I got it before your pic-edit. And we both know who that customer is!
     
  52. Well, then come over to the "back office" and take it in the "back-orrifice"
     
  53. Just about 110 on the mid now (Call fly that is)
     
  54. Ok. right. I made the PNG file. Once. So what's the account#? And who is the customer???? Everyone wants to know!
     
  55. Yeah, I added a bit as well.
     
  56. out the 580/585/590 weekly fly from .75 this morning, enough to cover the entire trade/commish (also had a couple 610/615/620 slated for worthlessness), and let a few ride for a chance at a buck or two more into opex.

    also managed to nip 100 shrs. AH yesterday, flipped this morning,... though, i'm no baller swinging 5K lots like trading baseball cards,.. so it feels like i did nothing at all,.. yeesh.

    happy trading
     
  57. Anyone playing FB or AMZN?
     
  58. Aww you boys calm.down now
     
  59. 99% of ATTI-boy's comments on this site are demeaning, insulting, antagonizing. What a waste.
     
  60. another small test of the "cat" (two OTM butterflies) as an earning play, with weeklies. on AMNZ, 200/205/210 and a 220/225/230. idea being to capture the implied market move, whichever way, as it comes back in the next day, and one of the flies should now be ITM or near.

    worked with aapl yesterday/today, figured why not try it again. general goal is to scale out the next day to nab a few free ITM flies, going into opex after the earning move/crush.

    though, if it had been purely direction play, that 580/585/590 AAPL weekly fly would have been a fair move, saw the mid on them go over $1 today, traded around .20-.50 before earnings.
     
  61. ahh most people that are demeaing or insulting are miserable.. i know i'm an assh0-le.. haha kidding..
     
  62. noting that "super fly" of jan13 400/600/800 now at 114, nice.

    the 580/585/590 weekly fly picked up for .20 (was part of a paired play for earning/opex.) traded .50-1.00 after earnings, went out at 4.67 today. $100 would have been about $2,300.

    do i wish i held at least one till the end,... yes,.. did i? no. dropped the ball today dumping the last couple in the low $2s as AAPL wavered @ $582. made up for the muffed FB and AMZN flies (all worthless, could have traded some of them break even / positive briefly, but let the $100 slide away.)

    flat, but wiser, on this weeks experiment with dual weekly flies for earnings/opex.


    -pikerforlife
     
  63. You were in the tiny fly? Nice move. But I think the 10x was plenty. Next time you'll hold a few more.
     
  64. I did not know what to say for this day.

    I used the simplest strategy, buy OTM call or OTM put.

    once tried buy a call and put at the same strike, but feel odd, why keep neutral, never tried butterfly

    aapl today way performed my other plays, my other takes are VHC, expe, not so much.
     
  65. WTF, really? Congrats!
     
  66. damn i'm jealous! haha