So based on what you are saying, would it be fair to conclude that when one looks at price history chart of Apple in any time frame, each move is the result of perfect efficiency? One day I may get around to creating a chart of probabilities based on prior price action, for a specified time frame. I will add a couple of other time frame appropiate variables to it. This chart is much more likely to not look like the chaotic mess that is Apple's. There are other ways to play Apple's expected long term underperformance. One can go long a more innovative company in the consumer technology industry and shorting Apple, for example.
perfect efficiency - no... otherwise we'd be all wasting time here What I am saying is there is no money to be made with the way retail traders think... this is a game where the pros take the retails to the cleaners.. they have everything at disposal.. the media machine, the analysts smoke mirror, the buying power to move price (to certain extent).. We retail have nothing. the only way to win, is to figure out how the pros try to take us to the cleaners... their actions leave a trail - the narratives they push, the upgrade/down grade, the price action. You can't beat them... JOIN them.
Well said. The big investors and hedge funds create tsunamis with their huge buying or selling power. Have you seen anyone run towards the tsunami and survive? Even the elephants in Thailand, headed for the hills when they sensed the danger of the tsunami. Only fools try to fight the trend. You will never win out because you will be broke long before it turns your direction!
kmiklas, I disagree with shorting APPL now. Looking at the weekly and daily chart, trend is up. Buy Apple now, with a stop at $192. If you are going to short, you have to wait to price get to up there again, then short. Look at my red box down there. Bears already tried to short APPL in the red box and currently losing. Bulls bought it back and the trend continues upwards. What is suppose to change when you start shorting? Consider the short when it goes up higher to the clear resistance level, THEN take the risk if your fundamentals still hold true at that time. There is no logical reason to short right now from what I see.
The game seems different depending on time frames. On intraday, market makers appear to fade day trader order flow. I wonder how widespread and if there is a net effect of inducing short covering on longer term stock prices? On position trades, long term institutional decisions are based on long term metrics while the news media leads the public by the nose with short term earnings reports. Has not fading news on stocks been profitable for more than a century?
intraday is complete waste of time... I have nothing to contribute here short covering is irrelevant for long term in years/decades. fading the news... maybe.. but it's about unfolding a story.... if it were that easy just to fade the news then there will be no money to be made either. this is a sport where only a select few can win... something simple like fading the news, something that anybody can do, will not be profitable.
goodness the timing of this thread... hopefully I saved some people from trying to long spy and short aapl haha. and of course some people just can't be saved and end up on my ignore pile lol.
This is a technical response to a speculative argument. I’m short for the speculative reasons specified in the OP, especially revenue issues pertaining to iPhone, which accounts for 2/3rds of AAPL revenue.
I tried that shit years ago. The smart money is already positioned pre-news minutes, hours, or days ahead. All the faders are a bunch of monkeys fighting for a banana.