Well, this forum is for traders, I think. Don't see too many trades. I looked back at atticus' (God rest his soul) post on PFs. The sentence, "Then you simply solve for risk of a strike touch under a flat vol-surface/gain to sticky delta." kinda jumped out at me. Very good and generous info, but I guess that's why I'm not an option strategist. I just buy 'em and sell 'em. Haven't traded ES in years, but I saw something and decided to make a go at it. Honestly, I saw a dip, then rally. Probably should've waited for the rally side. Got up early for this one. Legged in by selling 2 Sep monthly 2000Cs @10.00 and finally got 1 1990C for 14.00. Was hoping to do better, but it was a favorable leg in. Now, with the rally, the spread is down about a point. I'll hedge the upside a bit here and more aggressively later. Just sold 2 SPY Aug 22 weekly 197P for .23.
Bought the put back via limit order for 2.40 at 4:43:39 a gain of $45 big ones net of costs. Still in the red.
Bought 2 SPY AUG 22 199.5C @ .35 and just sold 2 200Cs for .18 for the bull call spread, effectively lowering the ratio a little - at least for a while.
This trade hasn't gone according to plan from the start - obviously. Was trying to get a better leg in to start. So I've just been improvising along the way - or call it plan B. I'm liking the looks of the downside here, but not yet.