Home > General Topics > Trading > A Strange Feeling (Part One)

A Strange Feeling (Part One)

  1. Let's start with the good news: The good news is the market is oversold while the indices are just off their 52-week highs! That rarely happens the NSYE 10-day Up volume peaked on June 21 and has been working lower since then. It is about time for the buyers to return. Also note that NSYE short interest reported over the weekend continues to increase. Friday's extremely low up volume reading on the NYSE produced the expected minor rebound within the allotted time frame. That is another successful signal, which has now expired. The consolidation like action has been ongoing for over a week and the market has become oversold setting the stage for the next step higher. Near-term we are in for a test of last week's lows. If such a test takes place, watch the internals for a non-confirmation meaning improved internal readings vs. lower prices, which will indicate the sellers have exhausted themselves and the buyers are ready to take over.

    Now the not so good news: There have been two "up" days and two "down" days within the past four sessions. However, both of the "up" days have occurred on declining volume, while both "down" days were "distribution days" indicative of institutional selling. The broad market has basically gone nowhere over the past four days, but a look "under the hood" at the volume patterns discreetly reveals underlying weakness. Professional traders who monitor underlying internals and volume patterns may begin hovering their fingers over the sell buttons in case prices begin to confirm the early warning signs. Conversely, a breakout above the highs of the recent ranges would instantly send the major indices back into new multi-year or record highs that are completely devoid of technical resistance. Stay alert and prepared for either scenario at this critical juncture...

    Subprime concerns have reared their head again after Countrywide Financial (CFC) badly missed analysts' expectations and slashed its full-year guidance as delinquencies rose across all mortgage product categories. Apple is going to be a big downer, etc. Overall, the market just has a " strange feeling " to me now. ~ stoney
     
  2. Lol, so your saying, "it could go up, or it could go down" basically.

    Sweet, that was my assessment.
     
  3. Acro wake up and take another cup of coffee.

    I said the market will likley revisit last weeks low HOWEVER we are already OVERSOLD and due for a SHARP snap back rally maybe even today!

    Indeed if you listen you could make money today mid afternoon in a big way AND perhaps thurs and fri to the downside.

    Keep in mind that several of my advance warning signals are flasing red for Sept/ Oct period so trade carefully ~ stoney

    Another thing please don't ever use that " lol " with me I don't know why but it makes me nervous as in lots of love....

    >>>> SPX spikes lower to test Friday's lows near 1530
     
  4. The market is either in an obvious uptrend or an obvious downtrend. Thats been the pattern over the last few years. A very simple deduction when looking at most any index chart.

    Now the market is chopping around giving no clear direction which hasnt happened for a while...this chopping around has lasted for over a month now, actually about two months.

    In review of the bad earnings calls, the detoriating A/D issues, subprime mess, high energy prices, climbing interest rates, etc. etc. etc...I suspect that the next step is a large leg down.

    However, when everyone suspects that the indexes will go down they go up. I have seen many instances in blogs and public writings where 1987 is mentioned and I have had that feeling myself many times. This is a contrarian indicator.

    In 2000, the place to be was value which wasnt very apparent until many years later. This time around I suspect it will be growth.

    My call is for the $SPX to correct to 1430 in the short term and then 1130 in the long term. Value stocks sometimes take much longer to correct then their growth counterparts. This could be a long winding down. I wish for a very quick and sudden crash to end all this, but instead we will probably get a long grinding down.

    I feel the place to be is Russell 1000/2000 growth. Growth stocks like Apple are doing fairly well and show no signs of weakness. The NDX chart and the growth indexes still looking in shape. This is telling.

    In 2000 it was growth bust, this time it will be value bust...
     
  5. Ok a stock we may take another look at here is IMMR.

    As you may remember we got much love out of this and then a downgrade (boo!)
    An analyst downgrade of Immersion Corp. shares pushed stock in the touch-feedback technology developer lower in Monday morning trading.

    The stock lost $2.29, or 11.2 percent, to $18.50 in morning trading.

    Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Kevin Hunt said the shares are pricing in "unachievable" growth opportunities beyond his already bullish assumptions and downgraded the stock to "Underweight" from "Market Weight."

    Over the past year, shares of Immersion have more than doubled to Friday's closing price of $20.50.

    Still, Hunt said long-term growth opportunities remain.

    "We believe that Immersion has a strong business opportunity ahead, with medical, cell phone and casino slot machine the largest potential growth opportunities over the next three to five years," Hunt wrote in a client note.

    Immersion releases second-quarter results on Aug. 2, and Hunt expects results to be mostly on target with Wall Street expectations.

    >> I wonder if this chart doesn't hold $18 and spike to new highs? Kind of has that powerful look>> yesterday rally which I panic sold into after seeing a large drop on the downgrade last week netted me a plus 25% plus return on a large lot and a MINUS 7% return on a 1/2 position so I clearly did not play this name ideally. Let's keep it on the list for this afternoon stonedinvestors.
     
  6. Well we are not going to hold $18 how about $17.55? it does get interesting somewhere in here...

    Here is the scoop some investors like me had been hoping to wiggle into the Iphone that is not happening. Good- iphone stocks are going to get killed these guys are buzzing and vibrating with all the real call phone players Nokia, etc...

    Immersion's technology simulates a keystroke-like response in touchscreen-based devices and there have been media reports that Apple Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) may have licensed it for the iPhone that combines cell phone, music player and Web browser.

    "We have no agreement with iPhone," Chief Executive Victor Viegas said in a telephone interview from the company's San Jose, California headquarters.

    Since the launch of the iPhone, Immersion shares have risen 44 percent to a life-high of $20.68 last Friday.

    The shares fell almost 16 percent on Monday after brokerage firm Thomas Weisel Partners downgraded the company citing high stock price. In afternoon trade on Thursday, the shares were trading at $17.09 on the Nasdaq.

    Earlier this month, Nokia acquired the license to use Immersion's VibeTonz tactile-feedback technology to use in its handsets sold worldwide.

    The Nokia deal provides for annual minimum payments from the No.1 mobile handset maker for the initial integration of the technology into handsets, Viegas said.

    Nokia has not yet started shipping phones with Immersion's technology, Viegas said.

    The deal with Nokia follows similar contracts with other handset makers such as South Korea's LG Electronics Inc. (066570.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) and Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.KS: Quote, Profile, Research).

    PROFITABILITY THIS YEAR

    The company, which gets about 50 percent of revenue from providing simulation technology for medical and surgical training, expects the mobile segment to make an impact on its results beginning 2009.

    The mobile segment contributed just about $100,000 to the company's 2007 first-quarter revenue of $6.4 million.

    Immersion's technology is also licensed to game consoles including Sony Corp.'s (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) PlayStation and PlayStation 2, Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s (7974.OS: Quote, Profile, Research) Gamecube and the Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Xbox and Xbox 360.

    Viegas said he expects Sony to launch tactile capability soon on PlayStation 3.

    In March, Sony had settled a patent dispute with Immersion and licensed the technology for about $150 million in cash.

    The settlement helped Immersion to post a net profit in the first quarter after posting losses for several quarters.

    Viegas said the company expects to utilize that cash to buy back stock and launch new products. He also reiterated Immersion would become profitable "some time this year."

    PATENT DISPUTES Viegas said Nintendo could have infringed some of Immersion's intellectual property with the launch of Wii as they have not entered into any licensing agreement for the top-selling console.

    "We have not communicated, disclosed or discussed that

    (infringement) situation. We are looking at our options including working with Nintendo," Viegas said.

    Immersion is also facing a lawsuit filed by Microsoft last month. Microsoft claims that its video-gaming sublicense agreement with Immersion entitles it to a percentage of any settlement amount with Sony.

    But Viegas said Immersion did not owe Microsoft any money as the Sony settlement was as per a court order.

    "If we had settled with Sony ... an out of court settlement ... we would have been obligated to pay Microsoft some money."

    All very interesting no? (1) maybe no payment to MSFT that's HUGE (2) Maybe agreement with Nintendo coming up for WI that's HUGE and there is this whole medical side kicker that i will get into at a later time, apparently a buzz or two is needed in the operating room as well, and not just in the surgeon's cell phone! ~ stoney
     
  7. Well we are not going to hold $18 how about $17.55? it does get interesting somewhere in here...

    Here is the scoop some investors like me had been hoping to wiggle into the Iphone that is not happening. Good- iphone stocks are going to get killed these guys are buzzing and vibrating with all the real call phone players Nokia, etc...

    Immersion's technology simulates a keystroke-like response in touchscreen-based devices and there have been media reports that Apple Inc. may have licensed it for the iPhone that combines cell phone, music player and Web browser.

    "We have no agreement with iPhone," Chief Executive Victor Viegas said in a telephone interview from the company's San Jose, California headquarters.

    Since the launch of the iPhone, Immersion shares have risen 44 percent to a life-high of $20.68 last Friday.

    The shares fell almost 16 percent on Monday after brokerage firm Thomas Weisel Partners downgraded the company citing high stock price. In afternoon trade on Thursday, the shares were trading at $17.09 on the Nasdaq.

    Earlier this month, Nokia acquired the license to use Immersion's VibeTonz tactile-feedback technology to use in its handsets sold worldwide.

    The Nokia deal provides for annual minimum payments from the No.1 mobile handset maker for the initial integration of the technology into handsets, Viegas said.

    Nokia has not yet started shipping phones with Immersion's technology, Viegas said.

    The deal with Nokia follows similar contracts with other handset makers such as South Korea's LG Electronics Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co.

    PROFITABILITY THIS YEAR!

    The company, which gets about 50 percent of revenue from providing simulation technology for medical and surgical training, expects the mobile segment to make an impact on its results beginning 2009.

    The mobile segment contributed just about $100,000 to the company's 2007 first-quarter revenue of $6.4 million.

    Immersion's technology is also licensed to game consoles including Sony Corp.'s PlayStation and PlayStation 2, Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s Gamecube and the Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox and Xbox 360.

    Viegas said he expects Sony to launch tactile capability soon on PlayStation 3.

    In March, Sony had settled a patent dispute with Immersion and licensed the technology for about $150 million in cash.

    The settlement helped Immersion to post a net profit in the first quarter after posting losses for several quarters.

    Viegas said the company expects to utilize that cash to buy back stock and launch new products. He also reiterated Immersion would become profitable "some time this year."

    PATENT DISPUTES Viegas said Nintendo could have infringed some of Immersion's intellectual property with the launch of Wii as they have not entered into any licensing agreement for the top-selling console.

    "We have not communicated, disclosed or discussed that

    (infringement) situation. We are looking at our options including working with Nintendo," Viegas said.

    Immersion is also facing a lawsuit filed by Microsoft last month. Microsoft claims that its video-gaming sublicense agreement with Immersion entitles it to a percentage of any settlement amount with Sony.

    But Viegas said Immersion did not owe Microsoft any money as the Sony settlement was as per a court order.

    "If we had settled with Sony ... an out of court settlement ... we would have been obligated to pay Microsoft some money."

    All very interesting no? (1) maybe no payment to MSFT that's HUGE (2) Maybe agreement with Nintendo coming up for WI that's HUGE and there is this whole medical side kicker that i will get into at a later time, apparently a buzz or two is needed in the operating room as well, and not just in the surgeon's cell phone! ~ stoney
     
  8. >>> Oh Baby Acro did you feel the love?

    >> NDX goes positive ,19 points off the early low!!!!

    What prey tell comes next Stoney?
     
  9. Well here we are at THE KEY moment in todays trading session coming off lunch and the S&P is treading on some dangerous trend support. Having made our swing trade on the Nadsog can we get into IMMR on this blow down? Is it worth it?

    A bigger point for me is I have heard absolutely nothing but don't go near financials and yet there is that damn Goldman Sachs holding steady at the $200 mark... I wonder if you don't just play the broker dealer index for a pop here...

    The Strange Feeling I speak of> is while every hair on your neck says we are constantly probing a lower floor and today we break it... is there that little bit of good news around the corner to rocket us back to new highs?
    When the market first tilted here on the sub prime issue it was in the face of earnings season- the low balled earnings again was our savior and we pointed to that fortuitous timing in the "What The F Is Going On" thread but soon we will be through this period of the earnings and for me things start to go dark now. What is the next spark for the market it has to be economic numbers and I'm just so sick of playing that game. Every time the great employment numbers yet we know deep in our hearts these numbers are faked. This is the ultimate Bush fiasco we have housing in free fall and no loss of construction jobs yea right. We have every great paying job being outsourced and yet jobs are strong,
    there is a huge story here I'm sure the illegal immigrants who do the heavy lifting they are counted in these polls as payroll so fairly low paying job growth is replacing what it takes to live here.

    The dollar situation freaks me out. I have never been comfortable with the economic reasoning of the lose 20% of your home currency. Jesus I've missed my f*ing window to go to Britain and eat like a king! Those days are gone and for what?- corporate America? I'd rather the f*ing meal!

    Let's be honest this great earnings season- how much of it is due to currency balancing? And buybacks? What are the REAL earnings?-- I'm going to guess NEARLY FLAT, maybe 1.6%.... put that into your pipe and smoke it.

    Still the RAPID ascent from 13000 to 14000 in the DOW can't be ignored we are embarking on something here.

    Sept. The Iraq situation TAKES CENTER STAGE.
    All of this will be meaningless then unless subprime spreads like wildfire. There is going to be great and universal emotional let down at that point when it becomes clear the troops are not coming home.

    All right back to an ignition spark for Mr. Market, I just remembered one- $375 Billion in cash takeovers are due to close in the next 90 days - that money will be reinvested by fund managers. For the next 60 or so days then... all pull backs will be shallow I would think. ~ stoney
     
  10. Meats? Cheeses?
     
  11. Thanks Ivan that was bad english I prettied it up!
     
  12. I think CFC's conference call is likely adding extra pressure now to the market. This feels ugly folks! But let's remain ambivalent. In discussing the housing market the co said that they are""seeing home price depreciation at levels not seen since the Great Depression" You know I saw a piece on the Florida Condo market and it was scary... is this how recessions start? I'm starting to get quite a bit of lower back pain remembering how active I was yesterday...

    There are some new kinks to the market now. For one all these funds that have 30% short all the time, they are so fashionable but as they grow in popularity aren't they propping up the market? ~ SI
     
  13. Ok, in a weak move I put IMMR in the wife's IRA @ $17.20 folks! Along with some FRPT. I could buy it myself but that would be the double hex I often worry about. If I don't get greedy and just leave it alone... there is a very great likelihood it will soar for you all as I sit on the sidelines...

    The trouble is I think I want it too!
    ~ stoney

    PS. Rumor of a Money Market Fund blowup is sweeping through the offices of my broker I don't know how that can be possible aren't those low yielding instruments always based off treasuries? Every one I have ever been swept into has....

    PPS. Today The NDX has completed an 8 day head & shoulders type top formation & resistance is now at the neckline near 2018-19
     
  14. Ok new day new way. It hasn't started well for me there are workmen out my window on scaffolding and I think one of them just saw me blow a bong hit at him. Not good in any circumstance but at 9:23 in the morning....

    I'm edgy. I'll admit it. AMZN is not helping it gives the Bull appearance in a wacky way this snap back rally might have to be sold into as much as it hurts me to say it.

    Tuesday had all the characteristics of a climactic selling event. But was it? It was a weird day I'm almost tempted to throw it out the window and just chart from here but I know too many other folks won't. They now see what I think I was the second to point out on the Net- The head & Shoulders pattern on the Nasdog.

    NYSE Breadth of -2656 is the 5th worst over the past 17 years, total breadth was the 8th worse. NYSE Up volume was a scant 6.7%, again, an excessive reading that some folks call a 90% down day. We are in a oversold condition.

    Lets not forget that before Countrywide CEO doused the flames the NAz had made a great comeback, they gapped em' down big in the morning, but managed to snap back in a three-wave rally. The NDX actually had a much stronger performance during that rally. Validating my whole all in on tech mindset lately. The S&P 500 basically marked time back and forth in a bear flag-type pattern. In the afternoon, they began rolling over, and as soon as support was broken they had a slide that lasted the rest of the day. Folks the head and shoulders top pattern that had developed on the Nasdaq 100 and the Q's must be reckoned with now and do we adjust our thinking going into august????????
     
  15. Oh my they couldn't price the Chrysler debt! Hell's gate swing wide open, fiery bitch from the depths release thyself, the world is over, the locusts the locusts...

    Is it it just me folks? Am I the big disconnect?
    Yes we are going to return to more normal levels of borrowing. Yes all massive spikes eventually crash- so here's your credit spread/ borrowing banker debacle. When these banks agreed to lend money out and at such a such rate it didn't' effect me any. On the way up, when the loans worked out, the banks didn't pay me any- and their stocks in fact languished thought this whole M&A churn. The whole argument that now that banks and brokers have to dip into their massive reserves to make up the difference in the spread on these loans and some new PE projects might not get off the ground for a few years ... that we have to then crash stocks..It's such a stretch to make this the catalyst.

    Todays action is indecisive and I feel like I did to start the weak " A Strange Feeling "> kind of eerie, the bounceback- near textbook, almost fake, the roll over so obvious-- neither is very convincing luring or scary...after a huge downday like yesterday many many stocks were down of course but I saw an awful lot of fractional losses you know down 40 cents type thing... except the brokers and banks and here we have a problem but the fact is folks let's take a step back- I Have A Mortgage! Even me. And you know what? When I got it it was tough as hell. I didn't meet the income requirement, I worked at Andy Warhol Studios- the references were sketchy and perhaps drug laced- it took a mia culpa from my mama to Chase to get it done and then it was for 7 3/4% AND I WAS HAPPY!! VERY HAPPY. Life was good, the market had no problem going up, doing deals, borrowing money-- you see it's a couple bad eggs who use leverage and blow up that start this kind of free fall & usually then some smart money makes out like bandits and buys this debt on pennies on the dollar- thats' investing. The piranha comes in and swipes it up-- in sub prime the question is who wants it? and I agree it's a problem- they are going to have to write it off.

    For the greater part of America who is working, they are making their mortgage payment and for those good citizens caught in a trap with ridiculous rates YOU GOT TO READ THE fine print folks nothing is for free. I re upped for 15 year at under 5% , so that buying power is mine now for 15 years... so many people did don't forget>> there are as many smart folks out there as dumb asses. I bet you didn't know the Margin Borrowing that is at an all time high (apparently) at $353 billion is actually only $68 billion when you net out cash balances. All that refinancing plays a roll here. You see people are borrowing not out of weakness but because they could to do more stuff. Surly when the tide changed they stopped. My mom is caught with an extra house right now I know how it is but she also was able to finance this new house purchase without a problem.

    So I can't help it, this market is too textbook, too trying to make this into the big story... even this trickle up to tier 1 debt or whatever and the inability to get these companies IPO'd again who cares! That's the risk the greedy investors in Fortress and the others have to worry about. My god if you are kicking ass making cash and shipping to China why does any of this matter? It's Back To The Beach for me. This is all too stressful.

    A Strange Feeling Pt 2 Coming Soon to a terminal near you.
    ~ stoney
     
  16. Why do idiots continually post market predictions? My guess is it's because of a psychological disorder where they need constant validation. Trading probably has little to do with it.

    opm8
     
  17. Your guess would be right my friend. Why did a major investment house just raise their S&P target by 1000 points? Who knows? but it's like earnings estimates- you need them to keep you straight that's what I'm here for on ET and to to keep the world going around. ~ SI
     
  18. The investment house did it to get other people to move the market in favor of the investment house (whatever that may be).

    I hope others find your commentary useful.

    opm8
     

  19. He isn't a trader. He's more of an investor. Great investors have to extrapolate current available data to price an intrument into the future. Therefore, the best investors are the best predictors.

    If you're a (all)day trader with an attention span of a monkey, ie 1 second, even that involves some degree of prediction. You have to ask yourself if clicking that button will put you in the direction of a profitable trade.
     
  20. No 0pm geez I can tell you are a newbie- the investment house did it because they grossly underestimated this years market. If you had read consistently stoney's updates you would be on the right side of this & feel heartened because (1) the market is right on schedule (2) each correction and minor set back has been anticipated and reacted to accordingly. (3) Each major issue has been thrashed about and identified as bear food....
    But what of an 87' like crash? wasn't that a stoned possibility too?...

    Keep reading 0 and you will become a more informed investor. That's all we can ask for these days: less bench jockey, order takers/salesmen types and more informed investors.
    peace. ~ si
     
  21. I said the market will likely revisit last weeks low HOWEVER we are already OVERSOLD and due for a SHARP snap back rally maybe even today!

    Indeed if you listen you could make money today mid afternoon in a big way AND perhaps thurs and fri to the downside. ....

    >>> Wow mourning futures do not look good folks.
    The aforementioned thurs sell off is here in earnest this is starting to roll downhill in a scary way.

    >>> An Australian Hedge Fund refusing to give money back is the rumor today ( I have to chase it down) Yesterday it was a money market fund that supposedly blew up. But what is really happening?

    >>> Kravis yesterday had to call on his bankers for loans he thought other's were going to shoulder for a big acquisition more and more banks have to step up now this causes a real stress to the system.

    >>> Fri we get adjusted GDP I think it's going to be a rosy adjustment and might refocus things back on the economy-- after the puke down today perhaps in the last hour today-- I might make a general bet on a upside for friday but as we have been seeing upsides come with less volume these days. ~ stoney
     
  22. One of the great ironies here as we are washed down the toilet is who is making out in all of this-- the debt investors! The very backbone of the breakdown is benefiting from new bank rates given to them (higher rates ) getting a better yield on their investments.

    This German bank situation is interesting to be sure.
    Undoubtedly in the last year some very crazy lending was done. So much as to crash the system? Can that be possible? I don't think so. exasperating the problem will be Hedge Funds not allowing their clients out causing a panic.. but what are these funds? When you sign up for high returns in the buying the debt of various companies, using leverage instead of languishing as most common folks do in a a convertible bond fund... you ask for a little bit of trouble. These fat cats will sue their way back into the game it's the small investor, you and me that get burned as usual. Our stocks go down because of their panic, their need to raise cash, etc. The stock market has never been fair in
    this regard and never will. SI

    PS: Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex recovered by more than 112 points in early trading today on the back of buying by funds in heavy-weight blue chip stocks. A glimmer of hope?