5000% profit overnight with MSFT puts

Discussion in 'Options' started by mutluit, Jul 19, 2013.

  1. mutluit

    mutluit

    You could have made more than 5000% profit overnight with MSFT Jul 33 puts, ie. 50x the investment.
    See attached screenshot.
     
  2. Yes, it's possible, but how many times a speculator lost betting on MSFT's OTM puts before he made the big score? 5,000% profit is on an overnight position. If you count all the previous losing trades, I'd bet the trader would still be at a net loss.
     
  3. In earnings is not THAT rare.
     
  4. mutluit

    mutluit

    ... of course it was a "special" day as MSFT missed the expectations and the stock fell about 12% from yesterday to today.
     
  5. Chances of "special" days increase exponentially during earnings, so if you think about it, not that special.
     
  6. The July 19 was a binary outcome, August would be better because even if not ITM after earnings, a miss would see increased value.

    Still a bit of a punt though, if it went the other way value would evaporate in the blink of an eye.
     
  7. mutluit

    mutluit

  8. NFLX incoming on Monday.
     
  9. mutluit

    mutluit

    Just looking at the annual chart and reading the summary of what the company does indicates to me that they will present good numbers, the stock should gain at least 5% I guess.
     
  10. 5% is peanuts for an earning reports from NFLX.

    At the same time, if you think you can predict earnings using technicals, you are mistaken.
     
    #10     Jul 19, 2013