Kass: Three Summer Scenarios for Market -------------------------------------------- http://www.thestreet.com/story/10522609/1/kass-three-summer-scenarios.html Summer has set in with its usual severity. Similar to many, I am trying to grapple with the market's outlook for the next few months. From my perch, the short-term market mosaic is particularly hard to decode. Indecision reins and is reflected in a relatively range-bound market, with the S&P 500 having been contained between 875 and 950 since early May and activity characterized by lackluster volume. In summary, I have concluded that a sideways correction or a deep correction are most likely, with a combined probability of 75%, and that a continued rally holds about a 25% probability. Scenario No. 1: The Sideways Correction (Probability of 40%) --------------------------------- I have previously suggested that a sideways correction remains the most likely market outcome this summer. As a metaphor, consider the market as a big bathtub with little new water (hedge fund and mutual fund inflows) being added into it. The bathtub market's water level remains stable, but the water swishes around from side to side as the bather moves. Industry rotation is the hallmark condition. The market, however, does not take a bath as, over the short term, extended sectors such as industrials, materials and energy will likely correct as more defensive sectors improve in their relative performance. A sideways correction would be intermediate-term healthy in the sense of correcting an overbought from the March lows and will likely presage a move higher in the autumn. Scenario No. 2: The Deep Correction (Probability of 25%) ---------------------------------------- Fundamentally, a continued weakness in retail spending could precipitate lost confidence and a deeper dive. So could weakness in business spending (as a byproduct of ever lower capacity utilization rates). Technically, a reversal in the Coppock Curve indicator -- it gave a technical buy at the end of May and is now in a sell mode -- and weakening Lowry's buying power augur for a plunge. It is important to recognize that a deep correction, similar the sideways correction, would also be healthy for the market's back-end-of-the-year market prospects.
oil is at 69 at this moment, it seems this is headed to 68 or 70 in next 1 hour . which side ? oil bull factors 1) euro is strong 2) equity market not so bad oil bear factors 1) weak fundamentals 2) ??? -- this is solved, Nigeria rebels settled with Govt. -- just this factor pulled oil big time big traders are playing this game well
ALoha guys, hows everyone done today?? And you guys made much of that big drop down?? Im feeling quite sad, since i looked at the chart today and saw that if id made the trade at the levels that i had wanted, i would have made an extremely good and precise trade, and more importantly would have made £700, which i desperately need. Ive got about £3,400 left, after having to pay out rent for last month from money, but i really really need to get £600 more from somewhere so that i can pay for my operation..., but its been so so long since i made any trades now that i just feel too scared of risking that money incase i lose any of it!! :'( Back when i was doing this for a living id just gotten so used to doing this day-in-day-out everyday, every month, that it had just become normal and routine part of life, and so i didnt really feel as much emotion or fear about it as it was just what i had to do to get by. But now that ive been out of the game for so long, and look back into it now, the risk of losing money just really really puts me off. Since i now feel that i want to have less money but know its safe and guaranteed to no go away anywhere, rather that have chance of making more but have the risk of losing what i have already. But i really dont like feeling like this now, as its making me feel uneasy and un-natural. What levels are you guys all looking for this week though??
6/30 oil price http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-rise-above-73-a-barrel-in-asia Earlier in the session, the contract surged as high as $73.38 a barrel, its highest level in eight months. "Many market participants are attributing this morning's move to fund short-covering," said Nimit Khamar, analyst at Sucden Financial Research. "The markets have given back these gains as participants position themselves ahead of key economic figures and crude inventories data this week," Khamar said in a note to clients. Oil futures finished with strong gains on Monday after Royal Dutch Shell Plc. /quotes/comstock/23s!e:rdsa (UK:RDSA 1,540, 0.00, 0.00%) said it was shutting down some production in Nigeria after an attack by a militant group. See full story. Crude prices have surged 48% over the last three months. "Should the oil price close above $69 a barrel today, oil would have seen the best percentage gains in 19 years this quarter," said analysts at Commerzbank in a note to clients. "Rising equity markets and a weaker U.S. dollar supported oil," they said. "Furthermore, only one day after the government offered an amnesty, Nigerian rebel organization MEND [Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta] attacked yet another oil pipeline in the Niger delta." Traders are awaiting data on U.S. petroleum inventories for the week ended June 26. The American Petroleum Institute will report its data at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, while the Energy Information Administration will release its more closely watched report at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Analysts expect a decline of 2.2 million barrels in commercial crude stocks, according to a Platts survey. They also project an increase of 2.1 million barrels in gasoline stocks and a rise of 1.4 million barrels in distillate supplies, the survey showed.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/citing-ugly-outlook-goldman-cuts-refiners-to-sell Citing ugly outlook, Goldman cuts refiners to sell NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs on Tuesday cut its ratings on refining giants Tesoro /quotes/comstock/13*!tso/quotes/nls/tso (TSO 12.29, -0.59, -4.58%) and Sunoco /quotes/comstock/13*!sun/quotes/nls/sun (SUN 22.69, -0.60, -2.57%) to sell from neutral and reiterated its sell rating on Valero /quotes/comstock/13*!vlo/quotes/nls/vlo (VLO 16.46, -0.17, -1.02%) in the face of an "ugly outlook" for the sector. "Even with meaningful underperformance having already occured this year, we see little reason for investors to own the sector," Goldman said in a note to clients. Analysts cited 1) rising gasoline inventories despite the summer driving season, 2) and the ramp up of overseas refineries that can compete with domestic operations. Goldman upgraded Marathon Oil /quotes/comstock/13*!mro/quotes/nls/mro (MRO 29.75, -0.06, -0.20%) to neutral from sell. Marathon Oil shares rose 0.5% to $29.95. Tesoro dropped nearly 4% to $12.37. Sunoco retreated 2.5% to $22.70
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A reading on U.S. consumer confidence relapsed in June, falling to 49.3 from a slightly downwardly revised 54.8 in May, as worries grew about jobs and the economy, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. Following a large confidence jump in May, consumers grew more pessimistic in June about their present and future. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the June result to hit 55.5, continuing recent confidence gains. "On balance, this was a disappointing report as it has clearly bucked the trend of improving consumer sentiments in the past few months," wrote Millan L. B. Mulraine, economics strategist with TD Securities, in a research note. "Moreover, with the details of the report uniformly weak, we are left with the impression that this was an outright slump in consumer confidence." The present situation index declined to 24.8 in June from 29.7 in May, while the expectations index fell to 65.5 from 71.5, according to the Conference Board. "The decline in the present situation index, caused by a less favorable assessment of business conditions and employment, continues to imply that economic conditions, while not as weak as earlier this year, are nonetheless weak," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, in a statement. "Looking ahead, expectations continue to suggest less negative conditions in the months ahead, as opposed to strong growth," said Franco. The percentage of consumers with plans to buy an automobile within six months fell to 4.6% from 5.7%, while those with plans to buy a home fell to 2.7% from 2.8%, and those with plans to buy major appliances fell to 26.5% from 29.2%. Consumers' inflation rate expectations for 12 months rose to 5.9% from 5.6% in May. Elsewhere Tuesday, the national Case-Shiller home price index reported that U.S. home prices fell in April, but overall annual declines have been slowing. On a month-to-month basis, prices in 20 selected cities fell 0.6% in April, with declines in 11 cities, compared with a decline of 2.2% in March. See full story.
Economic Calendar The economic calendar offers up 1) June's consumer confidence report, 2) the June Chicago purchasing managers' index, 3) and the April S&P Case-Shiller home price index today. Tomorrow 7/1/09 , 4) the June ADP employment report, 5) May's construction spending figures, 6) the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for June, 7) May's pending home sales, 8) weekly crude inventories, 9) and June's automobile sales are on tap. Thursday 7/2/09 10) also offers up a flood of information, 11) with June's nonfarm payrolls, June's unemployment rate, 12) initial weekly jobless claims, 13) and May's factory orders. The market is closed on Friday for the July 4 holiday.