To me this is a sign of things to come. During the credit crisis we saw this familiar pattern, luxury real estate slowing prior to the economic slow down.
From your link : "Yes, the price might still be high for anyone not in the top 1 percent," Lol, not sure people really check what it means financially to be in top 1%. 50 million house is too high priced for the vast majority of 1 percenters. Hope you are wrong on the "sign of things to come" although economy will have to slow down (and outside the USA many stock markets have been suffering this year )
Your conclusion regarding 1% is on the money however, homes $10M and up are now sitting on the market for many, many months. Close to where I live, in Belvedere many homes have been on the market for so long that brokers have pulled them off and are keeping them as pocket listings.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, if you have $50 million to buy a house you're more likely to use them to build your own house to your own specifications rather than get someone else's.
I think it has to do with location and sometimes pedigree. In tier 1 cities all the good spots have already been built on.
I'm a decade out of living in the Bay Area so haven't kept close track of housing but do keep track of the startup market. Your observation is puzzling because the number of startups getting good exits seems like it's at or near an all-time high, so one would think that would be reflected in a robust $10M and up RE market. Do you think this is just a Marin thing or is it everywhere in the area? Any ideas for why this might be happening? And just out of curiosity, are the $10M+ you're referring to in Belvedere just a 2000 square foot modern house on a 1/4 acre with nothing special, or are you talking the big water view mansion type houses.
No, at one point Belvedere had seven or eight estates on sale North of $20M. I am observing this all over the Bay Area eg Flood Estate took 4 years and $35M reduction to sell and that was 92 acres in Woodside, Scott McNeally's estate is still on the market, though not in the Bay Area, Rancho Latigo in Santa Ynez is at it's third price drop. My guesses 1) top end luxury real estate slows down way before the economy 2) there are mini silicon valleys sprouting all over the world 3) interest rates.
VCs say Silicon Valley isn’t the gold mine it used to be In the days leading up to TechCrunch Disrupt SF 2018, The Economist published the cover story, ‘Why Startups Are Leaving Silicon Valley.’ The author outlined reasons why the Valley has “peaked.” Venture capital investors are deploying capital outside the Bay Area more than ever before. High-profile entrepreneurs and investors, Peter Thiel, for example, have left. Rising rents are making it impossible for new blood to make a living, let alone build businesses. And according to a recent survey, 46 percent of Bay Area residents want to get the hell out. (TechCrunch)