350% of Buy and Hold Strategy, with less market risk https://gbr.pepperdine.edu/2010/08/seasonality/ (" This study not only demonstrates that it could be possible to reduce the time and risk associated with stock market investing, but that returns could also be significantly improved. The other interesting outcomes of the study are that the very difficult bear markets described in Table 1 were minimized or eliminated. In addition, the results associated with the recent stock market crashes of 1987 and 2000 to 2002 were practically eliminated, with the exception of a small loss in 2000 of -2.2 percent. In the final analysis, the Melded Strategy produced over 3-1/2 times the returns of the Buy and Hold Strategy, and with much less market risk!
Startpage https://www.startpage.com google's over the hill hoping you will update the article with current data. something makes me think that summertime trading is not as tranquil as it used to be and this may not be accurate as it once was. mr guru would you think quantitative easing could have changed the playing field enough to alter those ancient outcomes or not. what say ye thanks
https://mustardseedmoney.com/best-day-to-invest/ (" Okay, so now that we know that Monday would theoretically be the best day to buy if we were dollar-cost averaging on a weekly basis. What would be the best day if we were buying once a month?
“hoping you will update the article with current data. ” Yeah, and tomorrow you’ll find thousand of articles from 15 years ago... But there are also thousands of people updating such research on Seeking Alpha. “something makes me think that summertime trading is not as tranquil as it used to be and this may not be accurate as it once was.“ Then what’s the point of looking at any articles or research? They may all change after you invest. “mr guru would you think quantitative easing could have changed the playing field enough to alter those ancient outcomes or not. what say ye” I have no idea, but playing field can be changed by technology, regulation, and often by research papers that tell people what to do and then everyone’s doing it. There are also research papers showing that published research is the reason that that researched & published edges no longer work, so hedge funds hire those researchers and keep their own research to themselves. “What would be the best day if we were buying once a month?” Doesn’t matter because as soon as something is true then a few years later you and everyone else will say “something makes me think that this may not be accurate as it once was.“.
The strategy is simple enough it is easy to backtest with 2005 to 2019 data. You should be able to do it yourself. I could do it but I am busy backtesting a bunch of butterfly scenarios.
from Jan. 1, 1990, to Dec. 31, 2005. They concluded that the best day of the month to invest was the 23rd. What software are you using to backtest butterflys? How would you characterize the outcomes of butterflys vs bats, of gartley 222 type? Just this afternoon I was noticing that most examples found are for butterflys, fewer number for bats. Thanks
Nothing fancy, from my broker I downloaded 6 months of option data on equities I traded. Effectively gave me six month's backtests. I simulated different butterflies and their outcome. It was messy and time consuming. For longer than six months, I used 25 years' historical data download from Yahoo, open, high, low and close, adjusted close. I used BSM to calculate option prices to simulate various butterfly combinations. This part is easier after I learned how to program VBA Excel. However, since the greeks were estimates, less accurate outcome.
yeah, and now you got a new vba excel tool kit. I was thinking gartley butterflys, you're talking options. sorry, my bad.
MotiveWave has several Gartley/Harmonic tools built in, including manual patterns that you can wire up on the chart yourself, an Auto Gartley tool that you can use to search for patterns across a specific area of a chart, an Auto Harmonic study that automatically plots patterns on a chart and updates as more data comes in, and a Gartley Scanner to scan for specific patterns across specific instruments and timeframes. You can also use the Replay Mode feature to look at and test patterns across historical data and step forward.