Home > General Topics > Journals > 2014: The Battle for Survival

2014: The Battle for Survival

  1. After three consecutive down years, it was a welcome relief having a positive year in 2013. Of course that was like scratching the surface after the massive draw-down that started four years ago. It is still a battle for survival, especially given I have to take cash out of the account on a monthly basis.

    The key remains to be able to abstain from trades that do not meet my criteria. I will continue making the daily decision on what strategy/stocks to trade, the input parameters for the strategy, all before the market opens each day, while leaving the system to do the rest intra-day.

    2012: The Battle for Survival
    2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account
    Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010
    Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
    Taking 103K to 1.2million by Year End 2008
    Taking 76K to 500K by Year End (2007)


    Here is a quick recap of my past trading. Opened an account and placed my first trade with Datek Online in Dec 1999 at the height of the dotcom bubble, starting with 16K (basically my whole savings) and within 2 weeks I lost 50% of that. Through the years till Nov 2004 I lost a cummulative of 54K (account goes down, let the account idle for sometime until I can save
    some more money, and then replenish, get the next drawdown, and so on). At that low point, the balance in my account was 5.3K. Every thing in the account now sprung from that balance with some additional deposits, and lots of withdrawals as follows:

    	From		To		StartingBalance			Net P&L		Return%		Net Cash Movement	Closing Balance
    	===========	===========	===============		===============		=======		=================	==============
    	Nov 2004	Dec 2004	          5,300			  8,700		    164			    1,000		 15,000
    	Jan 2005	Dec 2005		 15,000			132,000		    880			  (12,000)		135,000
    	Jan 2006	Feb 28 2007		135,000			115,000		     85		 	 (174,000)		 76,000
    	Feb 28 2007	Jan 12 2008		 76,000		        138,000		    182			 (111,000)		103,000
    	Jan 12 2008	Jan 11 2009		103,000			377,000		    366         	 (160,000)		320,000	    
    	Jan 11 2009	Jan 10 2010		320,000			210,000		     65			 (120,000)		410,000
    	Jan 10 2010	Jan  9 2011		410,000		        (44,000)	    (11)		  (30,000)		336,000
    	Jan 10 2011	Jan 17 2012		336,000		       (121,271)	    (36)		  (11,000)		203,729
    	Jan 17 2012	Jan  6 2013		203,729			(61,573)	    (30)		  (59,000)		 83,156
    	Jan  6 2013     Jan  4 2014		 83,156			45,281		     54			  (27,400)		101,037
    * Closing Balance = StartingBalance + Net P &L - Net Cash Movement
    * Net Cash Movement is total of deposits less withdrawals. From Jan 2006 up, there has never been a deposit (just cash withdrawals).
    * Return% is percentage based on P/L over the starting balance, with no regard to the timing of deposits or withdrawals.
    * The periods listed here for 2007 onwards is from start of thread to start of next thread for completeness.

  2. I've been following your posts since at least 2011 or 2012. Just wanted to thank you for keeping everything honest and persevering through it all. Your journey over the years is very unique in this online trading world as almost everyone only posts their successes or stops updating after a while.
  3. I suspect your troubles are largely linked with financial crisis in 09. Markets are much more tricky and less liquid.
  4. Hats off for the persistence man!
    Wish you a good 2014.
  5. in the context of his total gains, his losses don't look that bad. more like 25% of total account value. he was smart to take money out before he lost it.
  6. The fact that you turned 15k into like 100k in a year is pretty impressive.

    The results aren't bad at all when you look at how much money you were pulling from the account.
  7. +1
  8. Too bad that there is ALWAYS someone who has to poop on someone else's party.
    The way I see it, neke made an average of 90K per year over the past 9 years.
    I'll take that any year.
    Good luck in the future.

    And xelite777 - lighten up. You'll live longer.


    I just noticed that xelite777's post was removed.
  9. Is this 401k account as I don't mention of taxes in your calculations ?

  10. Monthly Update for period 1/3/2014 - 2/1/2014 (4 weeks)

    Impressive start to the new year, up 23K (23%). Really feel now like a real break-out above 100K.

    It is a great feeling getting results from my new model of trading: the man-machine partnership. It is becoming increasingly clear that will be the mode of operation going forward. For the first week of the period I was away on training, but because I do all my discretionary job after hours, defining the trading plan for the next day, I was not even present by the computer during the day when the executions took place. At the end of that week, I was up 10K. I was like "gosh I got this much staying away from the computer". That reinforced my earlier commitment. Glad it generated the gains it did.

    The biggest single move in the account was a loss of 8.1K on a trade on 27/1. That was an RTM (reversal anticipation) strategy that was allowed to average down. I initially built that into the strategy, believing there was a good case for averaging in under those circumstances. That was the first time the strategy averaged down, had a big loss that day in the volatility of those few days, and I decided to remove the averaging from the strategy (I think I under-estimated the risk of the resultant position when I put that extension to that strategy - the reward is just not worth the elevated risk).

    Opening Balance:                	101,037
    Net gain for period 		       23,196
    Net Balance:                   		124,233
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK		2014-01-06-15-49-08		2378.58
    OPTION		2014-01-06-12-52-15		-1840.88
    OPTION		2014-01-07-12-58-17		13.2
    STOCK		2014-01-07-15-55-12		5.6
    STOCK		2014-01-08-09-39-50		3981.3
    STOCK		2014-01-08-15-55-12		1684.4
    STOCK		2014-01-08-12-20-56		2137.7
    STOCK		2014-01-08-12-18-55		514.1
    STOCK		2014-01-09-12-08-31		3847.2
    STOCK		2014-01-09-15-49-04		-1583
    STOCK		2014-01-10-12-21-34		-2230.2
    STOCK		2014-01-10-15-48-59		1572.7
    STOCK		2014-01-13-14-47-01		-2142.8
    STOCK		2014-01-13-14-45-41		-1584.7
    OPTION		2014-01-13-15-20-39		-1084.2
    STOCK		2014-01-14-11-10-05		-940.2
    OPTION		2014-01-14-15-54-49		1521.2
    OPTION		2014-01-14-11-38-10		-1379.5
    STOCK		2014-01-15-11-37-29		1618.1
    OPTION		2014-01-15-15-42-53		900.5
    STOCK		2014-01-15-12-55-52		-4581
    STOCK		2014-01-16-11-01-19		-371.5
    OPTION		2014-01-16-11-12-14		-1374.6
    STOCK		2014-01-16-13-34-17		1298.4
    STOCK		2014-01-16-15-51-18		454.2
    STOCK		2014-01-17-09-46-58		-672.4
    STOCK		2014-01-17-10-50-59		1678.7
    OPTION		2014-01-17-11-09-34		845.7
    STOCK		2014-01-17-11-03-12		2680.2
    STOCK		2014-01-17-15-55-17		-1545
    STOCK		2014-01-21-15-55-08		-500.4
    STOCK		2014-01-21-15-49-07		1987
    STOCK		2014-01-22-12-21-34		384.8
    OPTION		2014-01-22-14-50-14		321.7
    STOCK		2014-01-23-13-50-24		139.3
    OPTION		2014-01-23-14-22-28		845.2
    OPTION		2014-01-24-10-04-13		-296
    STOCK		2014-01-24-14-14-41		412.8
    OPTION		2014-01-24-09-44-41		1722.2
    OPTION		2014-01-24-14-26-19		-2438.5
    STOCK		2014-01-24-13-37-03		739.3
    OPTION		2014-01-27-10-20-41		-221.2
    STOCK		2014-01-27-15-49-44		-8159.5
    STOCK		2014-01-27-15-14-59		6492.6
    OPTION		2014-01-27-14-58-35		288.8
    OPTION		2014-01-27-15-16-03		1149.1
    STOCK		2014-01-28-14-02-30		-210.7
    STOCK		2014-01-28-15-37-57		125.1
    OPTION		2014-01-28-15-39-33		129.2
    STOCK		2014-01-28-13-31-10		-237.5
    STOCK		2014-01-29-13-31-12		1508.7
    STOCK		2014-01-29-09-53-16		291.2
    OPTION		2014-01-29-10-59-23		2188.5
    STOCK		2014-01-30-09-06-47		332.9
    STOCK		2014-01-30-15-23-46		1793.9
    STOCK		2014-01-30-18-42-30		-1799
    STOCK		2014-01-31-15-55-46		919.6
    STOCK		2014-01-31-12-25-41		3477.4
    OPTION		2014-01-31-14-41-31		6008.1
  11. congrats man.............all the best for 2014.
  12. and not bad considering he works a full time job at the same time. he is like most traders that make it in the long run. very few avoid the big draw down(s) in the process to instill methods and discipline to execute; including myself.

    good job neke; keep it going!
  13. Glad to see you are still plugging away and still posting. I've followed all your posts along your journey and in my opinion, you already have what it takes to achieve long term success. You obviously have a profitable strategy and you have most of what I'd call a trader's mindset.

    However, your downfall hasn't just been making bad decisions that override your system. Your woes come from taking too much risk relative to the size of your account. It's been a consistent theme through all of your journals. Your first update and already your worst trade cost you almost 10% of your account. Sure you ended up nicely, but it wouldn't take too many bad trades in a row and you are at a new low and mentally broken again.

    It's not a race. Get rich slowly.
  14. I re-read your post and see you realized right away the excess risk and adjusted for it. Good job. Your trade result distribution looks good too.

    Honestly the best thing you can do is remember that the #1 goal of trading is always:

    #1. Always. Write it down and put it where you can see it.
  15. What are you trading mostly these days Neke? Options?
  16. hi neke; i would like to ditto all the positive points made here.

    an extra big ditto to lescor point on protecting capital..

    this is a hard business like any other to excel in; so good luck in 2014.
  17. Yes, thanks. That trade was initially long 3200 shares, then exited half as the position went in my favour, leaving 1600 shares. When the stock went down later, and the average was triggered, it took an additional 4800 shares to bring the total to 6400, or twice the original entry qty. Needless to say it was not my intention for the system to average in after it has started paring down, talk-less of taking more than the qty on first entry. Without that average the position would still have lost like 2K. In retrospect it was a good thing the loss occurred on the first such trigger, made it all the easier to switch off the averaging.
  18. Still trade stocks and stock options. As the list showed, for Jan it was 19 option trades and 40 stock trades. I do options only if the stock has tight option spread, and very liquid.
  19. Thanks. I will see what the year gives with commitment to discipline.
  20. Awful on CRAY. Down 28K.

    Stayed at home today, turned off my system, and ... familiar story.

    So much for my commitment to discipline.
  21. Hi Neke,

    I am sorry to hear of your loss,

    I think you should consider to spend some time on a structured program like Topstep Trader to get your mind right about shutting down and to learn how to control your down side better. I mean you do well but your blow out days seems to undo a lot of your work. Better get a program where you are forced to shut down before the daily loss limit kicks in so you can really form a habit of following your personal draw down limit for the day as you wont like being shut down by the risk manager every so often.

    I say TST because I don't know of another company offering something similar in stocks and realize that you don't trade futures. It will however help you to form a habit of shutting down at a chosen daily loss instead of having such days where you sit afterwords and think what the fuck just happened.

  22. This is really quite painful to see. Your issues with impulse control and gambling behaviour suggest that you are not cut out for this business. You've been trying this for 15 years so I presume this advice will go unheeded. For the sake of you and your family's happiness/sanity I hope you stop trading and move on with your life.
  23. This is a much more difficult environment than before the crash. There is much less liquidity
  24. Sounds like the market is wide open for liquidity providers :eek:
  25. perhaps you should place on your screen as a wall paper...

  26. Neke,

    Take a chunk of your money and go on a long vacation.

    Stop putting yourself through this hell.

    a 20-30% dd during the course of a year, ok I can see it in a rough year, but you better be able to bang out 40-60% + on good years then too. It seems this has been possible for you. But...... In one day 20-30% loss, no good my man.

    You need to make a tough choice right now . Never fall off the bandwagon again, or give your money to someone else to manage.

    Thanks for your honesty, the journey is what it's all about . There is more to life than just money. Do you have any other passions that you are pursuing or could start to pursue?

    all the best to you sir.
  27. Seems neke is not going to change, or does not want to change.
    Its probably not worthwhile for him to change anyway, as trading conservatively and patiently (aiming to make at most 50% a year) with a 100K account is most likely something he isnt interested in.

    Only hope for Neke is that the markets are kind to him like they were before 2010.

    Otherwise he will just continue to spin his wheels (give back any profits) and the account get smaller as he continues to withdraw money.

    Good luck man.
  28. This has nothing to do with liquidity. This has everything to do with Neke's habit of fading a move, expecting RTM, and the inability or unwillingness to recognize that RTM is not going to happen on that particular stock on that particular day. A simple rule such as if C > O then long only AND if C < O then short only would have saved Neke hundreds of thousands of dollars over the years. This is a behavioral problem, not a market problem - the market has no problems.
  29. Better yet, throw out the monitor. Out of sight, out of mind.
  30. In my humble view I would add that there might be a correlation to Neke's results as to the direction of the market. It seems that consistent good results are achieved only under bearish conditions.

    But then, what do I know...
  31. Less liquidity has caused more tricky trading and patternless trading. There is less volume and rotation. All this making it harder to read the markets. Just read some threads from guys on this forum who have been here since 02
  32. I've noticed the same correlation also. Neke's best performance periods have been during high volatility and declines in the market.

    Neke will recover.
  33. Neke, you are amazing. I am new to trading. I have $40,000 cash, I hope to make $2000 per month.
    Your result surely gives me some hope.

    May I ask you if you are equities trader or both option/equities?
    What is your edge to such an amazing result? What indicators do you use...do you use fundamental analysis or strictly charts?
    Can you share your expertise, I am very thankful.
  34. Your trading to much size, u should be risking only 1-5% of your capital on any given trade
  35. You are reading a journal entitled: "The battle for Survival", which follows on the heels of the journal entitled: "Rebuilding my battered account" (which didn't) and this result gives you hope?
  36. what is it with this 'per month' nonsense? At least it's not the usual 'per day' nonsense. You really need to think bigger than trading in 5% increments.
  37. identify the best entry point for a short in this chart:

  38. And how often does a stock give basically a flat guidance, opens up 10%, runs to close the day, up +39% with no noticeable pullback? I keep scratching my head trying to find a reason for this mad move.

    Of course it is no justification for initiating a trade outside my system, or averaging until I ran out of money. It also seems any time I am at home there is bound to be a move like this that entices me. Do those things happen all the time, or I am just so unlucky?

    I am thinking and planning hard how to remove the ability to shut-down my system, even at home.
  39. " I keep scratching my head trying to find a reason for this mad move. "

    Markets move because they have to. Traders/investors caught on the wrong side.

    Look at the volume on CRAY on Friday, 4.8m on a stock which normally trades a tenth of that or less.

    Sorry to read about your loss though. As they say, **** happens.
  40. "NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Cray Inc. (CRAY_) shares are soaring after the supercomputer developer reported fourth-quarter and full-year earnings well above consensus.

    By early afternoon, shares had exploded 37.7% to $41.28. Trading volume of 2.8 million was nearly seven times its three-month daily average.

    Over fiscal 2013, the company posted total sales of $525.7 million, a 25% year-over-year increase. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had forecast sales of $525.75 million.

    Full-year net income of 76 cents a share was a dime higher than consensus.

    In the three months to December, the Seattle-based company recorded net income of $1.48 a share on revenue 62% higher year over year to $307.7 million. Analysts had predicted per-share earnings of $1.36 on $300.56 million in sales.

    "We had a great year in 2013, led by strong growth in both supercomputing and big data," said CEO Peter Ungaro in a statement. "We set company records for annual and quarterly revenue as we completed the acceptance of more supercomputers during the fourth quarter than we have in any quarter in our history."

    For fiscal 2014, management anticipates revenue around $600 million. Analyst consensus is for 87 cents a share in net income and $599.25 million in sales.

    TheStreet Ratings team rates CRAY INC as a Hold with a ratings score of C+. The team has this to say about their recommendation:

    "We rate CRAY INC (CRAY) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed -- some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its robust revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and solid stock price performance. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including deteriorating net income, disappointing return on equity and weak operating cash flow."
  41. Cray still exists? Look at the big increase in services revenue. This is just the kind of company that IBM would buy for a big premium and then start making a ton off services revenue. Just a guess.
  42. My guess is you have done this before and gotten away with it (as in shutting down your system and down averaging into a bad trade), this is why you keep doing it.
  43. There is NO reason (unless your an insider) to know or understand the WHY's of an individual company's move. I learned a long time ago that fundamentals sometimes just don't cut it for a variety of reasons. One of the reasons I don't trade the individual stocks. Some stocks you follow for years you can get a feel for and perhaps you felt that way about CRAY. However these smaller stocks are so ripe for manipulation that your discipline to quickly cut the loss is so important. You are NOT unlucky...these things DO happen, perhaps not all the time, but when it happens to YOU it just feels that way. CRAY just may give back all the gains next week and you will feel even sicker....

    The ability to shut down your system is literally ALL IN YOUR HEAD. When you come home...limit your time to research. Enjoy the family and other activities. If you trust your system you need to LEAVE it alone and that is where discipline kicks in. When you truly have had enough you will get it!
  44. "Everyone gets what they want from the market"

    You need to contemplate that famous quote and think about what it really means because you are a textbook example. When you know what to do, but still do the opposite, you are satisfying some kind of need. You are DOOMED if you don't figure it out.
  45. You're trading what you think, not what you see. All your large losses have been the result of this common trading mindset error. You believe that you, Neke, know better than the vast majority of market participants who are scrambling to buy shares.

    You, a lone retail day trader, believe that you know when price is too high and is due to reverse. This is the Lone Hero ego-fulfilling dream. David conquering the Goliath. The Bruce Willis "Die Hard" fantasy.

    If you had statistical evidence that the price action scenario presented by CRAY offers a higher probability of profiting by shorting rather than buying, then it would make sense to have shorted. But you don't have that evidence because it doesn't exist. The price action scenario presented by CRAY is a high conviction long trade.

    Stocks that gap open at new highs or multi-year highs (CRAY opened at a new 10-year high) and do not immediately fall or do not break the opening 5-min low with conviction, tend to make new highs all day way more often than not. They tend to have a very shallow pullback period during the east coast "lunch period" and they tend to resume the move up during the hour or so leading into the close.

    This is a gap and go scenario I've posted to your journal when you've tried to counter the the same price action environments in the past.

    April 9, 2011:

    I have to agree with VRUS being a shorting disaster...the technical price action was pure long signal. Priced gapped up in pre-market from the previous day which closed near all-time highs, then price ran from the open without a single tick of hesitation and consolidated in a narrow range at the opening range high. Buying anywhere in that narrow range, or buying the break out of the range with a buy stop was a very high probability trade based on that opening action. Everybody long VRUS was profitable and the price target is now $104. There is no fundamental reason whatsoever for price to drop, and technically there was no short signal the entire day.

    When I see stocks hitting the hi ticker over and over again in the opening half hour, I take that as a long signal and I'd be looking to buy any pullback pivot or a break through a previous high.

    February 26, 2012:

    FIRE opened with a huge gap into all-new-high territory. That means no one's in pain except shorts (and there were a helluva lot of them because the short interest going into earnings was 20%).

    That alone doesn't mean the price will continue to rise. As a gap trader, the standard rule of thumb is to watch the reaction to the gap at the market open. As I recall when I looked at the chart for that day, the opening bar was pure green. That's known as a gap-and-go (as opposed to a gap-and-crap) and it's a signal to trade in the direction of the gap.

    If FIRE had spiked a bit and retraced the entire opening bar, that could indeed be a fader's short signal, always with an advance risk management plan, though.

    Study how to play those gaps, Neke, they can be really profitable, but you need to wait a bit for the opening emotions to give you a clue to what the majority of market participants are thinking.

    Gaps are a specialty among professional retail traders (those who trade for a living). There are precise rules for trading gaps technically and if you learn to trade them technically instead of based on what you believe should happen, you'll have 5-figure intraday gains more often than losses.
  46. Oh no, here come the Monday Morning Quarterbacks who have never even sniffed anything close to what neke has made in his trading career and telling him what to do.

    This guy made over 50 percent last year, and has made over $700k net since reporting his trading here. How many posting here can say the same? Maybe two, or three posters?

    Yet we have the keyboard warriors acting as trading expert/ psychoanalyst who say neke is a lost cause.

    Trading is not called winning, just as neke won money in January, he gave it back on a bad trade. It happens. There are ups and downs. He's aggressive, and goes for the kill, which I admire, more than those spouting off trading cliches about risking just 2% on a trade as if its set in the Holy Grail. Or saying no discretionary trading. Well he made a ton discretionary trading in the past, why would he stop now after past success? Just because a bunch of keyboard warriors said to do so?

    I am willing to bet that neke will make more money trading this year than 90 percent of those posting on this thread.
  47. Well he doomed himself to a 50 percent return last year while working a full time job. Thats pretty good in my book.
  48. Read the history of his posts. He has a profitable strategy yet manages to lose money consistently by doing the same thing over and over. And every blow up post-trade analysis is the same. "Why do I keep doing this?" "I realize I have no discipline". "I recognize that this behavior will eventually kill me". But his answer is to just "turn off the screen". The REAL answer is to find out what deep seated or unadressed need he is satisfying by self-sabotaging himself regularly.

    But he also has a history of ignoring a lot of good advice.

  49. Heck of an up trend. Just think, OP would have been up 30% in a week if he had been long :eek:

    Might be the only adjustment necessary here, though I'm no trading millionaire, or Guru.
  50. +1
    IBM wasn't built in a day.
  51. Thanks for bringing to memory those trades. I think I need to create a banner of those tickers and nail it by my home computer. Maybe, just maybe, it could stop the next attempt at overriding my system.

    I wonder what I was thinking when I decided to power down the computer. Is it because the memories of those trades are now so distant I wasn't put off? Or possibly because of gains the last couple of months, I was beginning to feel invincible. The process of self-discovery is baffling.
  52. Those quotes are from Ed Seykota. I would like to bookmark him as a trader, not a philosopher or psychologist.

    Over the years, I have been observing things that have hindered my trading, and taken steps to diminish their influence. The last such series of steps made me introduce the man/machine partnership, where my input take place outside market hours, while the system takes over during market hours. I observe I should be significantly ahead in my overall P/L from where I currently am, would like greater financial freedom for self and family, and possibly ability to retire early from regular work. So WHAT DO I WANT that I don't know off - that is causing the mishaps? Perhaps you could advise.

    I don't want to comment about the DOOMED part
  53. Lot of respect for you, you've been doing this longer than me and I have yet to achieve your results, but I can't believe you don't know why these types of moves happen.

    If 95% of traders are chronic losers, what caused all that movement..? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

    And you were part of it if you were liquidating a short.
  54. profitable strategy? all I see is countertrend trading. that's the easiest problem to fix. no need to enter years of therapy to examine deepseated needs. just don't countertrend trade. just. don't. do it. no RTM trades. none. first, fix the strategy. all the discipline in the world won't fix a broken strategy.
  55. Deep down this is what trading is all about : bringing to the surface your deepest subconscious patterns.
  56. quiet right
  57. has he tried trading only under bearish conditions?:)
  58. I have a one line recommendation and I am hopeful it can cure your problem completely.

    "From man-machine partnership, move to 100% automated trading, move your strategies to a VPS/dedicated computer, start your strategies every week on Monday morning and finally look at your results on Friday evening"

    dom993 implemented a similar system on a single underlying (CL) a year back and his system has been running without any major problems for almost a year.
  59. Of course everyone wants money, freedom, etc from the market. That't not at all what I'm talking about. As you have already realized, trading is mostly a battle of YOU against YOURSELF. Many many traders know what to do, yet ignore their rules or rationalize bad decisions. Many chronic gamblers and alcoholics know that their behavior is bad for them. Over-eaters, spousal abusers, there are lots of examples where people KNOW the right thing to do, yet still do the opposite. You need to think about your actions from that perspective. You have to separate the act of trading from the emotional response you are getting by doing it. That's what that Seykota quote means.

    Your position sizing and the grave risk you put your entire account when you go on tilt says something. A good first step would be to keep a journal where you write down the reasoning for every manual trade you take. Pre, during and after the trade- what are you thinking, what is your rationale? Over time you will see a pattern of decision making. There are books on trading psychology, maybe you should read some of them.

  60. So people aren't making money trading against the trend? Or do you just mean that you can't do it?

    Neke has a system that makes money, he just keeps doing things outside the system that gives it all back.
  61. sure, if you want to grind out nickels and pennies with huge leverage, you can trade against the trend and make some money at it. but the old name for this thread was $400K to $4M in a year. why is he going outside his system? he wants more movement and more action. ok, if he wants to take more risk and go for bigger wins, he'll have to buy CRAY, not short it for a 50c pullback.
  62. CRAY now down 12.5% to where it belongs, after milking me of my money. Nice work retards. They knew I wouldn't hold overnight.
  63. Maybe you are being sarcastic, maybe not. If not, then your words here speak volumes as to where you are menatlly and emotionally and intellectually as a trader right now.

    Look at where CRAY's price is right now in relation to its it's opening print and the range of the first 5 minutes or so. Now look at where CRAY's price was on Friday at this same time (it is just after 12:30 PM Eastern Time) in relation to Friday's opening print and the range of the first five minutes or so.

    If C > O, then be long or flat, but NOT short. If C < O, be short or flat but NOT long, where "C" is current price and "O" is open or opening range. Simple rule, but not so easy for most to follow. But if you were to train yourself to follow it, you would prevent the majority of your what will otherwise surely be your future catastrophic losing discretionary trades.
  64. Well, I am new into trading... I think Neke is a good trader because he has managed to make a lot of money. All he has to do now is to examine those winning trades & write down exactly what strategies/edges in those trades, follow those written rules exactly and DONT enter the trade until those rules meet.

    Also examine bad trades & write down what mistakes in them, AVOID those mistakes.

    CRAY has 10% short interest, low trading volumes, it looked very illiquid to me. The stock ran up beyond its fundamental, because of overnight shorts panic to cover & ofcourse new shorts on that day (those who think this CRAY is not worth this run-up=these people also panic & cover) and traders who went long after news...

    Anyway, I still think NeKe is a good trader, I have never make that much money :(.
  65. Since Neke has chosen not to respond to this suggestion and I still believe that this is one of the most practical suggestions given on this thread that can cure his problem, I will re-post. Maybe Neke will see it posted again and see the wisdom. :cool:

    My personal experience: I was against full automation for full 2 years because I used to think that going 100% auto route will mean that I miss on too many opportunities that my systematic trading and coding cannot capture and especially special situations e.g. BP disaster a year ago etc. However, I realized that "not abiding" to the rules (I had a similar problem like Neke) was costing me a ton more. I was under-performing my system by a huge extent. This convinced me to go full auto route and I have been making more money every since with very limited drawdowns compared to when I was not full auto. Thanks.

    Edit: Now, I spend my time testing newer rules, and doing stuff other than trading like going out, exercising, reading new things etc. Makes life more meaningful :)
  66. Great post lescor. Thanks.

  67. paper trade and fine-tune your system (apparently, it hasn't worked consistently).

    also promise to oneself is not as powerful as promise to others. you are under great pressure if you don't realize that.
  68. Sorry, I was busy at work and really didn't care much about trading other than watch CRAY add insult to injury by going back to where it belongs - below my average entry price.

    I have thought about renting collocated server, but I am not quite sure what it means for the privacy/security of my code and account information, even with porting only object code / bytecode.

    Moreover, my personal involvement (off-hours) on a daily basis is essential to the profitability of the strategy. So I cannot really hands off for one week like you mentioned.

    But I am still open to that.
  69. better invest a substantial amount for that , ... how you would react and feel should your years of hardwork was simply copied and tripped and used without you knowing or having access to others using your know-how in trading ?
  70. I don't have a co-located server myself because of the same security considerations. But I definitely needed to control over-trading etc. So, what I did - I set up a computer in a room in my house. Room remains open only during the weekend. Sunday evening (since I trade globex) and room gets locked. Please don't think that I don't have access to key anymore. I just hang the key in my bedroom. To control the urge that I don't go and open that server room, I have made a register where I enter whenever I open the room during the weekend and write down the reasons to open the room. It is just a very simple control system that is employed by all physical premises - that is - similar to the way they keep a check and record of all the people entering and exiting.

    Such a setup has worked beautifully for me for almost a year and there is no security risk of your code getting stolen in this setup.

    You might want to make some amends to this setup to suit your individual situation, however I hope that this will help you as a good starting point.
  71. "I don't have a co-located server myself because of the same security considerations. But I definitely needed to control over-trading etc. So, what I did - I set up a computer in a room in my house. Room remains open only during the weekend. Sunday evening (since I trade globex) and room gets locked. Please don't think that I don't have access to key anymore. I just hang the key in my bedroom. To control the urge that I don't go and open that server room, I have made a register where I enter whenever I open the room during the weekend and write down the reasons to open the room. It is just a very simple control system that is employed by all physical premises - that is - similar to the way they keep a check and record of all the people entering and exiting."

    Wow - now that's what I call discipline !:cool:
  72. you need go to apply for military training.like SEARS.
    how about jail?

    I am wondering how many traders are subtaging themselves for successful trading.

    I am a lousy trader. I do not curse myself if I made mistakes. we are human beings. do not try to be Adam and Eve. just admit: God, I committed it.

    overtrading is just an execuse. under the hood, you have a strong self,or ego.

    I once traded over 100 trades on sweet crude CL a day. that is insane, just commissions amounts to thousands per day, my brokage IB love it very much. but I am happy too, why, I finally turn a deep red day into a deep green one. I do not think that is overtrading. It just proves how persisstent I am for the quest of GREEN.end the day I may just net couple hundreds. my wife hates the fact I give too much to IB. but I donot curse myself. I just do what I should do, be practical. no matter what measures I take, whether disciplined one, oreven dirty one, or ugly one, I just aim for the results. if the results benefit me, I do it.

    I once shorted REGN years ago, when REGN around 40~50. that is horrible experience. I remebered Ishorted it when it starts to showoff technical breaout at50~55, shorted it at 50, then REGN toke off from there, I shorted 2000shares, REGN shoot to58~60+ range, when I looked at the RED NUMBER keep rising (above 20k+), I get frozen, almost lost mind to cover at those high level. glad I become clam, my logic started to kick in, I know first time breakout often pullback, Ijust watched the peak reversal signal (thinking about reversal short procedure in my mind), step by step, finally it pullbacked to almost where it tokeoff, I immediately cover there, lost couple of thousands. then I started to buy, next day REGN dropped 10% more to 40~45range, my buy become RED again, I was kind of sick about REGN! but I become calm again, I think that is overdone, I just need be patient. next next day REGN started to rally, then my buy become GREEN. after my loss in first trade recouped, I dumped all. then see it clamb climb... it is a pain. never touched it again. now it is at 320+!

    if I cursed myself, I may cover it at the highest. or I may dump it at the lowest. since those places are when we traders lost mind we are the weakest level! we need courage to hang on or ride out bad situations. Volatility is our friend, also is our enemy!

    cheer up
  73. Period Update for February 2/1/2014 - 3/1/2014 (4 weeks)

    Ugly month, down 24K (19%). Basically wiped out my gains from January with one stupid trade on 2/14.

    The month was lacklustre until then, and wasn't going to be remarkable, but somehow managed to make it memorable on that day. That was the only time I had to stay at home this year during market days, having taken the day off to be with kids - whose school was closed for the day. It probably should have been a day without trades, judging from the lack of signals from my automation. So subconciously trying to avoid "wasting" the day, shut down my system when I saw CRAY, shorted first at 35.2, and commenced the mad averaging down until I was short 6700 shares (from an initial 1500) as the stock raced to 38 in early trading. Watched helplessley after maxing out, watching for a pullback to break-even - never happened all day long. Quite a trend.

    Still hurting from that trade, and will be for sometime. On the positive side, the month would have seen some gain without that trade.

    Opening Balance:                	124,233
    Net loss for period 		        (23,646)
    Cash Withdrawal				 (2,500)
    Net Balance:                   		 98,087
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 3/1/2014)
    Opening Balance:                       101,037
    Net loss		    	          (450) (Down 0%)
    Cash Withdrawal			        (2,500)
    Net Balance			        98,087
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		                     P/L
    OPTION	2014-02-03-15-51-48	****	2185.2
    STOCK	2014-02-03-15-03-15	****	-1950.5
    STOCK	2014-02-04-14-32-48	****	598
    STOCK	2014-02-05-11-12-08	****	-3264.8
    OPTION	2014-02-05-15-04-11	****	-3054.5
    STOCK	2014-02-06-10-43-51	****	15.5
    OPTION	2014-02-06-10-32-05	****	-2574
    STOCK	2014-02-06-13-20-09	****	-1183.5
    STOCK	2014-02-06-16-28-35	****	-2265.7
    STOCK	2014-02-06-18-59-51	****	-311.2
    STOCK	2014-02-07-15-41-09	****	-884
    STOCK	2014-02-07-15-42-07	****	1314.5
    OPTION	2014-02-07-10-16-32	****	533.5
    STOCK	2014-02-07-10-24-45	****	2172.4
    STOCK	2014-02-07-09-35-58	****	18.5
    STOCK	2014-02-10-15-44-10	****	-98.8
    STOCK	2014-02-11-15-24-20	****	3912.4
    STOCK	2014-02-11-12-48-11	****	-731.4
    STOCK	2014-02-11-15-49-32	****	-4139.9
    OPTION	2014-02-12-15-47-19	****	4586
    STOCK	2014-02-12-12-02-12	****	1246.2
    STOCK	2014-02-13-14-52-56	****	-61.7
    OPTION	2014-02-13-15-42-18	****	-1396.8
    STOCK	2014-02-13-15-29-05	****	1022.2
    STOCK	2014-02-14-10-33-40	****	555.2
    STOCK	2014-02-14-14-31-25	****	-27505.09
    STOCK	2014-02-18-09-52-33	****	-1140.73
    STOCK	2014-02-18-15-49-07	****	425.44
    STOCK	2014-02-19-15-53-37	****	851.42
    OPTION	2014-02-20-14-54-38	****	1072.16
    STOCK	2014-02-20-12-23-59	****	-486.04
    OPTION	2014-02-20-09-43-19	****	2409
    STOCK	2014-02-20-15-42-58	****	-2369.04
    STOCK	2014-02-24-15-52-27	****	-240.45
    STOCK	2014-02-24-15-49-06	****	-931.59
    STOCK	2014-02-25-10-00-52	****	-708.02
    OPTION	2014-02-25-11-23-42	****	9339.32
    STOCK	2014-02-25-15-52-31	****	588.08
    STOCK	2014-02-26-09-52-18	****	-484.61
    STOCK	2014-02-26-09-58-25	****	1852.95
    STOCK	2014-02-26-10-47-53	****	1329.42
    OPTION	2014-02-26-10-14-09	****	-2454.47
    STOCK	2014-02-26-15-15-58	****	2144.15
    STOCK	2014-02-27-14-28-44	****	-324.6
    STOCK	2014-02-27-15-49-13	****	-117.9
    STOCK	2014-02-28-10-05-56	****	-12.8
    STOCK	2014-02-28-15-53-52	****	-2533.1
    STOCK	2014-02-28-15-49-26	****	-594.47
  74. You don't like to listen to advices, but here I go again as usual. Get someone to analyze your trades and stick to those types/days what are profitable. Example: Don Miller on average sucks on Mondays, his annual returns would be like 15-20% better if he would just take a long weekend and wouldn't trade on Mondays, not to mention the extra free time.

    You made 10K in your option trades last month, why not just stick to those? (not to mention the savings on commission) Can you give us a breakdown of last year's options vs. stock trades? If there is a tendency (aka trend) you should exploit it....

    Edit: After a quick check, you made 7K with your option tradings last month. So YTD you would be up 17K and would have saved a shitload on commissions instead of being in the red....

    Edit2: I did a quick check in your 2013 journal, and looks like the option trades were mostly the losers:

    "Pekelo: I am not sure if this is true for the rest of the year, but most of your option trades were losers. So you might want to stay clear of those, if this is similar for the rest of the year.

    Neke: Yes, I have tightened the conditions for the option trades and trading less of them. I think I have not been able to break even on the spread."

    The clear indication here is that looks like the tightening worked and you should concentrate more on what works....
  75. Yes, I am always looking at past performance for improvement on my strategies, but I will not over-analyse, otherwise I will simply be trying to curve-fit. Like you mentioned, options were losers for much of last year, but have now shown good performance this year. Even for stocks, back out the -28K loss on CRAY for a trade that should not have been, and suddenly the performance is very positive.
  76. You haven't reached the "uncle point" yet.

    It's kind of funny that you mentioned curve fitting, IMO that's exactly what you are doing with the above statement.
  77. Not at all. It is not curve-fitting when I set out the year with stated aim to avoid trades initiated outside my system, and then the trade in question Is the only trade this year initiated outside my system (shut down the automation to initiate it).
  78. One thing I did at the beginning of the year was to group my trades into strategies, and set targets for the years expected performance. These are figures I thought were realistic targets for each strategy (not overly optimistic, and not too conservative as well). Attached is the sheet showing the expectations vs what has occurred so far. I have made sure that all trades were classified into one of those strategies identified at the beginning, even if there were rule violations. For the sake of this journal, I will name the strategies with generic names: option1, 2... for options, and stock1,2,... for stocks.

    Stock3 is where I included the CRAY trade. Without that trade, that strategy is about break-even (Option3 has not fetched a trade yet, and I am considering deleting it.

             Initial Projection   Current Amount
    option1      10000                2840
    option2      10000                15303
    option3      10000                0
    option4      10000                -199
    OPTOTALS     40000                17944
    stock1       15000                -815
    stock2       15000                -1515
    stock3       10000                -27980
    stock4       10000                 5893
    stock4       10000                 6022
    STKTOTALS 60000                   -18395
    GRAND TOTALS 100000               -451
  79. I keep track of my trades by strategy. It can be a real eye opener to review trades in a journal when they are sorted by strategy. You will see which strategies are making money for you and which ones you should drop. As Nick Radge said, you should do more of what you are good at and less of what you are not good at. A trade journal can be invaluable in that regard.
  80. I meant it from a psychological perspective, as in everything would be ok if I just didn't do that trade, but you did and from what I read this is a recurring pattern.
  81. Neke's threads are the only one's that I read in this forum. Last few years I come here every couple weeks to check what's new. I just want to say that in all those comments there is essence of what's trading. From greatness of top notch advice to sorrow from witnessing blow ups. Thank you all for participating and especially neke for enabling it with his openness.
  82. Why are you shorting stocks in up trends? If you had put a 50 And 200 moving average on chart you can trade with them
  83. Any Update?:)
  84. Updates are done monthly. Week-end following last trading day of the month.
  85. For the remainder of the year (Mar - Dec 2014) I am re-setting targets for each strategy earlier mentioned. I am still maintaining an overall target of 100K for the year, but with some reshuffling among the strategies. I have increased target on option2 because of the current good result, and increased optimism on that end. stock4 has also got a higher target because of better expectation (in part also reflective of a good week on that strategy). I dropped option3.

             Initial Projection   Current Amount	New Projection
    option1      10000               2840              10000
    option2      10000               15303             25000
    option4      10000               -199               5000
    OPTOTALS     40000               17944             40000
    stock1       15000               -815              10000
    stock2       15000               -1515             10000
    stock3       10000               -27980             5000
    stock4       10000               5893              25000
    stock5       10000               6022              10000
    STKTOTALS    60000               -18395	      60000
    GRAND TOTALS 100000              -451		     100000
  86. Period Update for March 3/1/2014 - 3/29/2014 (4 weeks)

    Closing my month with one more trading day left, as I will likely be too occupied next week-end with my office work.

    What a spectacular month it was, up 57K (58%).

    The slight return of volatility spurred strategy stock4 into tremendous level of activity, with a win rate of 68%. As I noticed the good turn of results, decided to allow discretionary averaging in on that strategy, but subject to strict rules enforced by system. Everything worked out perfectly, size of winners outpacing size of losers as well.

    I should probably be revising my targets again for the rest of the year, but will abstain. I just don't want to be doing that every month, and certainly not want to jinx my next month performance by an ambitious target.

    Opening Balance:                	 98,087
    Net gain for period 		         57,126
    Cash Withdrawal				 (2,500)
    Net Balance:                   		 152,713
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 3/29/2014)
    Opening Balance:                       101,037
    Net gain   	    	                56,676 (Up 56%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (5,000)
    Net Balance			       152,713
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK  ***2014-03-03-15-01-13***-258.53
  87. Good work! History doesn't lie. You've proven yourself in the stock market in the past, and a couple of subpar years doesn't change that.

    Where are the haters now?
  88. Very nice return to form. :cool:
  89. While it was certainly a nice month and a "well done" is in order, one has to take into account the crazy position sizing, which from the looks of it could've been above 100% of equity. Betting the farm also brings in the largest returns, obviously.
  90. Well done.

    A spectactular return to form.
  91. No guts, no glory! LOL. The big swings are where the big returns come from.
  92. Nice to be on the right side of the big swings for a change! Congrats Neke keep on the right side.
  93. The position sizes (%-wise) is no more than I have been using in Jan and Feb. They are less than 100% of AV, except for the cases where averaging is permitted (few). Volatility in individual stocks have been bigger than normal in March, hence the bigger gains. Also as my account balance increases, the $ value of the sizes increases. Nothing out of the ordinary in my sizing. I take an average of only two/three positions a day. I do not trade like people that hold 20 positions concurrently.
  94. The month-by-month analysis of performance by strategy is attached. Like I mentioned, I wont revise the projections made in early March until at least one month from now, even though they are nor more reflective.

    stock4 has obviously been the star of the show this month.
  95. What is stock 4 ?
  96. A stock strategy, as outlined earlier
  97. It's good to see your awesome result :cool:

    Everything worked out with your discretionary decision to average in; if the trade didn't turn in your favor as you were averaging, would it have been possible for you to override the strict rules enforced by your system?

    You don't have to answer that here, but I think it's important for you to know the answer.
  98. I am only allowed to average in once (same size as original) within defined price level and timeframe. My system would close it out if it did not adhere to the constraints.
  99. Neke: I just saw your thread now! I have some comments and questions:

    1. Some posts (including some of yours) seem to suggest that answers may be found in the thinking, philosophical writings and assumed greatness of others. It seems to me that the answer is the opposite. Why? Because if one follows others the best he can achieve would be to be in second place. If one assumes that trading is a zero to negative sum activity, it would mean it would be correct (or at least prudent) to assume that there is no second place if one want to be winner. Therefore, one would need to be in a league of his own above everyone else in terms of trading.

    If I constrain my mind to follow others, I believe that my chances to be in the top league (above everyone else) would be made probably impossible.

    Is it possible that Neke in the early years was better in trading than Neke of some years down the road? If yes, is it because Neke of the past was thinking to become the best, and had the confidence that he can the best?)

    2. One way I try to assess points related to 1. is to look at RRs. We know that each trade has an RR in the sense of the RR that takes place after the entry (not the RR used in a trading system). What has been your actual RRs (mean and variance), and what are the RRs that you think the best in the worlds can/cannot produce?

    If I can produce the the best RRs at the best probs, I would know that I would be in the top of the class. A great boxer (I like Muhammed Ali) (or a great general) are great because they do things that are clearly above the realm of the possible among the average people. Similarly if I want to achieve something great in a zero sum activity it would mean that I would have to do something that is above the realm of the possible among the traders.

    Why would you not think that Neke could produce a Neke that Seyoka (or whatever his name is) should look up to for success like the current Neke was advised to look up to Seyoka.

    3. In essence, one should produce a trader in the top class from within himself, and the numbers are just a measure to determine if the product (a trader) is indeed the best in the world.

    4. What if you were to fail to become the best in the world? The consolation prize might be a winning trader.
  100. Awesome, Neke. I'm rooting for you, bro!

    I think if you stick with your guns, you going to make it all back.
  101. Period Update for April 3/29/2014 - 5/3/2014 (5 weeks)

    Frustrating month, up 1.25K (0.8%).

    Started brightly early in the month with gains, but then the move fizzled out, and then surrendered much of the gains later in the month. We can just call it a month of consolidation, although the P&L on the individual trades are such that the month could have gone either way.

    Took out 7K for the months of Mar/Apr.

    Because of a higher account balance, and better expectation on some strategies, I am revising my expectation for the remaining 8 months of the year to +108K as in the attachment.

    Opening Balance:                	152,713
    Net gain for period 		          1,248
    Cash Withdrawal				 (7,000)
    Net Balance:                   		146,961
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 5/3/2014)
    Opening Balance:                       101,037
    Net gain   	    	                57,924 (Up 57%)
    Cash Withdrawal			      (12,000)
    Net Balance			       146,961
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    Stock	2014-04-02-11-16-03	2598.4
    Option	2014-04-02-13-19-22	-668.5
    Stock	2014-04-03-15-52-44	-1051.7
    Stock	2014-04-04-10-27-36	-2016.3
    Stock	2014-04-04-10-06-30	5517.9
    Stock	2014-04-04-10-03-55	3698.7
    Stock	2014-04-04-15-49-28	-8868.8
    Option	2014-04-07-15-26-27	594.9
    Stock	2014-04-07-10-02-42	3776.9
    Stock	2014-04-07-10-02-20	10742
    Option	2014-04-07-15-30-27	-1861.1
    Option	2014-04-07-15-29-50	4421.6
    Option	2014-04-07-15-28-21	-279.8
    Stock	2014-04-07-15-28-41	-856.5
    Stock	2014-04-07-15-27-20	-481.7
    Option	2014-04-07-15-25-38	614.7
    Option	2014-04-07-15-19-41	4580.2
    Stock	2014-04-09-10-58-45	-1577.7
    Option	2014-04-09-11-36-08	7125.8
    Option	2014-04-09-11-11-37	-3697.3
    Stock	2014-04-10-12-19-16	1807.1
    Stock	2014-04-10-14-48-38	471.8
    Option	2014-04-10-15-02-56	1761.4
    Option	2014-04-11-14-27-06	-932
    Stock	2014-04-14-14-23-23	547.9
    Option	2014-04-14-15-28-03	-5606.9
    Stock	2014-04-15-10-54-14	-778.4
    Stock	2014-04-15-15-52-13	-151.4
    Stock	2014-04-16-10-47-50	137.8
    Stock	2014-04-17-12-02-39	3390.3
    Option	2014-04-17-12-30-18	8072
    Option	2014-04-17-12-03-34	-8205
    Stock	2014-04-22-10-18-19	202.4
    Stock	2014-04-22-15-02-09	-2406.5
    Stock	2014-04-23-15-53-17	-4358.4
    Stock	2014-04-23-10-54-37	1635.9
    Stock	2014-04-23-12-24-41	1885.7
    Stock	2014-04-24-10-42-48	312.5
    Stock	2014-04-25-10-21-51	5215.3
    Option	2014-04-25-13-43-25	-9050.4
    Stock	2014-04-25-14-16-56	-5917.2
    Stock	2014-04-25-14-55-18	-923.7
    Stock	2014-04-25-14-16-47	-7681.4
    Option	2014-04-28-15-51-56	1483
    Stock	2014-04-28-15-52-49	-7521.7
    Stock	2014-04-28-15-51-50	2715.3
    Stock	2014-04-28-15-51-49	-2030.1
    Option	2014-04-28-15-51-55	-277.3
    Stock	2014-04-29-09-40-26	-471.2
    Stock	2014-04-29-12-44-31	6185.9
    Stock	2014-04-30-12-20-51	-727.9
    Option	2014-04-30-14-47-05	-2494.9
    Stock	2014-05-01-14-30-56	3392.2
    Stock	2014-05-01-14-00-11	-2364.3
    Stock	2014-05-02-09-45-23	-816.7
    Option	2014-05-02-09-45-13	2438.3
  102. Neke,

    Just wonder why you never move on to trade futures. At least index futures.

    This way, you care less about company specific events. No earning release, no company manipulation, no games played by the management.....
  103. It's like going from drinking a few beers a week to a fifth of jack per day. Totally diff ball game imo.
  104. No, he is not just drinking a few beers a week. He has put on quite a leverage and aggressive. And he has been doing this several years.

    To me, I know I can never out-smart company management. Trading stock is like betting against the house with no edge. Maybe you guys are smarter than I'm :D

    Just look at Apple. Its last earning has been just so-so. No new product. The company was smart enough to engineer its finance and jack up its stock price. Why, the dumb fool stock traders were fooled by the management.....
  105. You forgot less volatility :)
  106. "To me, I know I can never out-smart company management. Trading stock is like betting against the house with no edge."

    Not at all.

    Many traders trade stocks successfully, I would even suggest that the percentage of stock traders who are consistenly profitable greatly exceeds those trading index futures.

    Certainly a different ball game, but in no way inferior from a profit point of view.
  107. i'd have to agree.
    I know of a lot more people who are consistently profitable with daytrading stocks than futures.
  108. Yes, I agreed that there have been a lot of successful stock day traders. In general, buying stocks makes more money since the market should go up in general.

    But how do you get the edge in stock trading? Technical side? Or information side? Most of the stock analysts are not honest. The boiler room stock tip is mostly bogus. There are just so many ways to manipulate stock prices. For small cap, info is extremely hard to get.

    With all this, you'll have to spend more time in researching companies. Then you still do not have the edge with information.
  109. The edges I can think of in trading stocks are:

    1. You have some inside information the general public does not have.
    2. You have the capital to influence the stock market, like controlling some shares to squeeze the shorts.
    3. You have means to influence the company management, like what the activist investors are doing in controlling the board and management.

    Most of the above are illegal. But the activist investors have made it legal.

    If you do not have any edge, then it is like going to a casino and bet on the luck... Of course some come out winners, but most would lose...
  110. But you have an 'edge' in index futures?
  111. With the extremely good liquidity with stock index futures, I can apply most of the technical tools. I do not try to find edge on the company side.

    Index is a diversified basket. It does not have the company specific noise...
  112. Uhmmmmm....... could you guys not hijack the thread with YOUR opinions. Let Neke answer if he wants to then leave it or start your own thread. Thx
  113. Anyone knows what day job Neke has? He says office job.

    It is just peculiar that he can do all the company research, watch the market, turn on his auto-pilot trading program, put on and manage his trades and do the trade management. He is a superman.

    If he puts on a couple of trades per day and keeps an office day job, then it makes more sense.

    A lot traders trade full-time, but still can't do even 1/2 of what Neke has done. I do not know how Neke manages his trading and life....
  114. A faster way to lose money.
  115. Agreed about all the monday morning quarterbacking.

    OP's gains, if true as reported, are pretty amazing. Although I am certainly more interested to see the specifics of each trade (winning and losing), e.g. entry, exit, quantity, reasoning/logic for entering/exiting.

    I don't think I can sleep well at night with the kind of leverage this guy has to be swinging in his portfolio, but you also don't make it big if you don't bet big I suppose.
  116. Period Update for May 5/3/2014 - 5/31/2014 (4 weeks)

    Frustrating month, down 23K (16%).

    Disappointment in almost all my strategies.

    Market opportunities were few and far between, but in the meantime kept sabotaging myself trying to get trades. Will be the greatest victory for me the day I can get everything fully automated, and won't have to make any discretionary decision.

    Of the existing strategies, two require immediate cease-and-desist. Its clear I have to rein in trading in option1 and stock3. I have given them too much leeway even as they continue bleeding. So I am putting a stop on the most discretionary aspects of those strategies: I will work to more cleanly define the trade criteria and automate entries/exits on them.

    Opening Balance:                	146,961
    Net loss for period 		        (22,868)
    Net Balance:                   		124,093
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 5/31/2014)
    Opening Balance:                       101,037
    Net gain   	    	                35,056 (Up 35%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (12,000)
    Net Balance			       124,093
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    Stock	2014-05-05-12-38-10	920.9
    Stock	2014-05-05-13-02-55	-76.2
    Stock	2014-05-05-10-20-15	824.3
    Stock	2014-05-05-13-57-09	-1473.2
    Stock	2014-05-06-11-27-35	2108.2
    Stock	2014-05-06-17-22-36	442.5
    Option	2014-05-07-10-29-46	3021.6
    Stock	2014-05-07-13-55-08	1806.7
    Stock	2014-05-07-10-38-33	2489.5
    Option	2014-05-07-10-31-29	2626.8
    Stock	2014-05-08-12-36-38	-1681.6
    Option	2014-05-08-10-18-38	-4654.3
    Option	2014-05-08-10-17-12	-7162.2
    Stock	2014-05-08-12-37-53	-2598.4
    Stock	2014-05-09-15-31-07	114.4
    Stock	2014-05-09-15-21-47	3120.2
    Option	2014-05-12-14-37-13	2536.3
    Stock	2014-05-13-15-31-03	244.5
    Stock	2014-05-13-15-44-09	1904.3
    Stock	2014-05-14-09-46-29	-577.5
    Stock	2014-05-14-15-51-12	-1067.7
    Stock	2014-05-15-10-07-40	1303.8
    Option	2014-05-15-15-50-45	-1322
    Stock	2014-05-15-13-30-53	-1912.2
    Stock	2014-05-16-09-51-32	75.6
    Stock	2014-05-16-13-32-04	-915.5
    Stock	2014-05-16-13-12-34	-1972.9
    Stock	2014-05-19-08-53-19	259.3
    Option	2014-05-19-12-42-55	-5427.5
    Stock	2014-05-19-14-27-44	-274.1
    Option	2014-05-19-12-38-23	-8106.1
    Option	2014-05-19-12-37-14	-4984.4
    Stock	2014-05-19-15-28-16	-2952.8
    Stock	2014-05-20-10-33-12	451.9
    Stock	2014-05-23-10-40-31	-2135.3
    Option	2014-05-27-15-31-22	13890.4
    Stock	2014-05-27-11-49-44	-245.6
    Stock	2014-05-28-12-04-53	178.1
    Stock	2014-05-28-12-04-55	-2396.9
    Option	2014-05-29-15-38-05	-8219
    Stock	2014-05-30-09-43-51	162.9
    Stock	2014-05-30-13-12-19	-1194.6
  117. You don't have to trade every day. Some of the best trades is not taking the trade if it does not meet your rules. If you can't control your emotions why not stop trading until you get the full automation finished? You keep saying this when you have bad month and then you keep breaking it. You struggle with disciplines big time.

    I friend of mine that has been trading since late 70's has tried to hammer the discipline thing into my brain for years now. I am taking a long break from trading cause I keep self sabotaging myself with lack of discipline and following rules that he gave me.

  118. Good luck man. One part of trading is definitely is about staying tough and keep on trying. Automation may or may not give you the edge you desire, but dont give up hopes on your discretionary trading. There may always be an angle which you havent looked at.
  119. Better to just stop now. Keep what's left. Many traders have already left the premises, no point "donating" money to whoever's left.
  120. I completely disagree.
  121. There's a small chance he can pull it off and return to a path of success.
    More likely, though, is consistent drawdowns that most traders face until the account is gradually wiped out by continuously getting out of losing trades, or losers that exceed winners.
    If trading is a battle for survival, then it's more like the gladiators of ancient times where only one man is left standing.
  122. neke is still on pace for a 80 percent return this year, why do the doomsayers suddenly crawl out of their caves aftes one bad month?

    Trading is a roller coaster, you cannot make money on every trade. There will be bad weeks, bad months, even bad years in this business. Those looking for gains everyday are probably in the wrong business.

    neke will be fine, in any case, he has a full time job so its not as id trading is his lifeline like it is for full time traders. He has nothing to worry about.
  123. First post here,

    Looks ok to me, just look at your stats...long run is the truth!

    It seems to me that your´re a grinder, so 50 trades or even 100 don´t mean much!

    Look at your last 1000+ trades and see what´s going on....probably you will discover that you have to just keep grinding, long run is obviously important to a grinder.

    Obs: I was looking back to your trades and seems that your style take a "long time" to reach your long run of trades....probably a very important thing to work on in your mind!!!
  124. Reminds me of movie Rounders.
  125. After a chart like this, how can anyone fade a move?
  126. :eek:

    I hope you were long :D
  127. Fade implies he was not....
  128. It's too bad neke has gone to monthly updates, keeps us guessing! LOL.
  129. I agree. My guess is he lost 3K this month...
  130. Come On, its still too early in the month. 3K is nothing between now and end of month!

    No, I did not trade that stock. It simply reminds me that making money thru mean reversion is 90% ability to avoid stocks/situations like that.
  131. I know but it makes this thread more interesting, like a horse race.... Otherwise it is just a bunch of horses running.... :)
  132. if you traded mean reversion in this market you've probably lost alot
  133. Hmmm, I do not agree that "Trading is a roller coaster" :) This idea might make some guys think, that gambling and loosing for example 50% in year is allright...
    Priority number one for successful traders is stability no matter what - at least for guys making money in markets that I know... :cool:
  134. Period Update for June 6/1/2014 - 7/4/2014 (5 weeks)

    Another frustrating month, down 8.5K (6.9%).

    Big reversal week in my best-perfoming strategy : stock4. The biggest loss was $14K on 6/17. Made a quick decision to revise my exit rules, and that compounded matters on my next trade with that strategy. Lost 5K when I could have made $3K had I stuck with existing exit rules. All in all, it was a month of regrets.

    Looking forward for something better in July.

    Opening Balance:                	124,093
    Net loss for period 		         (8,518)
    Cash Withdrawal				 (3,500)
    Net Balance:                   		112,075
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 7/5/2014)
    Opening Balance:                       101,037
    Net gain   	    	                26,538 (Up 26%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (15,500)
    Net Balance			       112,075
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    Stock	2014-06-02-09-43-51	2956.7
    Option	2014-06-02-11-54-31	517.5
    Stock	2014-06-02-11-14-28	3002
    Stock	2014-06-03-11-43-23	2831.8
    Stock	2014-06-04-10-26-32	-4932.5
    Stock	2014-06-04-10-27-03	-915.1
    Stock	2014-06-04-11-00-03	3141
    Stock	2014-06-04-15-48-33	-2505.9
    Stock	2014-06-05-15-37-19	-554.9
    Stock	2014-06-06-10-26-46	212.3
    Option	2014-06-06-10-20-13	-5041
    Stock	2014-06-09-10-49-42	925.4
    Option	2014-06-10-15-35-27	-3659.8
    Stock	2014-06-10-15-40-57	5406.5
    Option	2014-06-11-10-52-04	2238.6
    Stock	2014-06-11-09-42-57	-397.2
    Option	2014-06-13-15-53-45	2338.8
    Stock	2014-06-16-15-49-30	-1938.1
    Stock	2014-06-16-15-55-11	133.9
    Option	2014-06-16-13-56-53	620.4
    Option	2014-06-17-15-30-55	-746.3
    Stock	2014-06-17-15-55-18	-13934.9
    Option	2014-06-18-10-44-14	-1316
    Option	2014-06-19-15-45-03	1989
    Stock	2014-06-20-15-47-19	1991.8
    Stock	2014-06-20-15-48-31	366
    Stock	2014-06-23-15-49-18	296.6
    Option	2014-06-23-15-51-47	-723.5
    Stock	2014-06-24-10-48-22	-1365.9
    Option	2014-06-24-11-49-11	-1856.9
    Stock	2014-06-25-11-40-20	-5341.1
    Stock	2014-06-26-11-32-00	-539.1
    Stock	2014-06-27-15-52-10	-10.2
    Option	2014-06-27-15-52-10	229.2
    Stock	2014-06-30-10-47-19	210.7
    Option	2014-07-01-14-59-15	6152.7
    Stock	2014-07-02-11-32-22	-125.7
    Stock	2014-07-03-09-48-31	1822.6
  135. So my prediction of you losing 3K for June was pretty much right on the money, slightly underestimating your ability of averaging into a losing position. Where is Market Owl's cheer leading when you need it?

    Anyhow, just to keep this thread educative, would you mind explaining the -14K day for us? Your biggest losing day shouldn't be twice as big as your biggest winning day.

    And thanks for keeping this journal public and honest....
  136. He will be vindicated ... eventually

    Nah... Nothing that has any chance of revealing strategies. And yes, it averaged down (according to rules!)
  137. Keep chipping away neke!! Forget the naysayers you have bigger balls then most to post on here!
  138. Looking at neke's track record, if we get any kind of equity volatility, he will be making loads of money. It is a difficult trading market right now.

    I wish neke had weekly updates, the monthly updates have kind of driven away a lot of followers due to inactivity.
  139. Period Update for July 7/5/2014 - 8/2/2014 (4 weeks)

    A good month, up 22K (20%).

    Finished off the high of the month, but still a great month. Still looking for the best performing strategy (stock4) to come back to life. In its absence, option1 did a mighty bounce-back from prior poor performance. Generally it's the strategies that have lagged behind before now that delivered for the month. I think it shows what happens when attention is given to them. I pretty much believe every one of my strategies can deliver if care and discipline is applied. Took out 6K for the months June/July

    Opening Balance:                	112,075
    Net gain for period 		         22,421
    Cash Withdrawal				 (6,000)
    Net Balance:                   		128,496
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 8/2/2014)
    Opening Balance:                       101,037
    Net gain   	    	                48,959 (Up 48%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (21,500)
    Net Balance			       128,496
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2014-07-28-09-57-44	2179.7
    STOCK	2014-07-28-10-52-11	-697.6
    STOCK	2014-07-28-09-38-04	82.3
    OPTION	2014-07-28-15-27-25	-1115.9
    STOCK	2014-07-29-12-23-11	451.2
    STOCK	2014-07-30-11-51-05	-3800.5
    STOCK	2014-07-30-12-11-37	-1955.5
    STOCK	2014-07-30-11-48-09	-3015.6
    OPTION	2014-07-30-15-20-39	4.2
    OPTION	2014-07-30-10-15-28	-331.3
    STOCK	2014-07-30-15-02-47	-777
    STOCK	2014-07-31-10-13-07	1107.1
    STOCK	2014-07-31-10-30-55	2443.7
    STOCK	2014-07-31-15-10-35	-197.8
    STOCK	2014-07-31-19-11-42	-2248.8
    STOCK	2014-08-01-15-31-03	1477.8
    OPTION	2014-08-01-15-50-11	444.1
    OPTION	2014-08-01-09-56-32	4168.7
    STOCK	2014-08-01-15-50-00	-1685.3
    STOCK	2014-08-01-10-16-05	2890.2
  140. Just realised I gave only the last week's trades.
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    OPTION	2014-07-07-15-37-24	1518.9
    OPTION	2014-07-08-15-58-35	2208.7
    STOCK	2014-07-10-10-23-50	145
    OPTION	2014-07-10-10-50-45	-3278.8
    STOCK	2014-07-11-15-28-59	-975.1
    OPTION	2014-07-11-15-45-10	4750
    STOCK	2014-07-11-11-16-40	2018.8
    STOCK	2014-07-14-11-51-38	206.8
    OPTION	2014-07-14-15-53-16	-1692.5
    OPTION	2014-07-14-15-22-46	-1072.9
    OPTION	2014-07-15-15-45-14	-341.2
    OPTION	2014-07-16-11-06-47	-1817.2
    STOCK	2014-07-16-10-26-00	31.9
    STOCK	2014-07-17-09-49-10	-139.9
    OPTION	2014-07-17-14-27-22	9411.1
    STOCK	2014-07-18-09-33-33	168
    STOCK	2014-07-18-15-55-10	158.3
    STOCK	2014-07-21-09-39-39	-356.9
    STOCK	2014-07-21-18-34-48	230.9
    STOCK	2014-07-22-15-28-11	532.9
    STOCK	2014-07-22-13-10-35	2175.1
    OPTION	2014-07-22-15-45-43	311.8
    STOCK	2014-07-22-10-45-31	2094.5
    STOCK	2014-07-22-15-20-42	-746.3
    OPTION	2014-07-22-15-50-46	321.2
    STOCK	2014-07-23-09-38-00	4777.2
    OPTION	2014-07-23-15-45-23	4822
    STOCK	2014-07-23-15-55-09	3559.9
    STOCK	2014-07-23-15-31-08	301.4
    STOCK	2014-07-23-13-26-00	-576.3
    STOCK	2014-07-23-15-55-19	2726.3
    STOCK	2014-07-24-12-02-21	-757.6
    STOCK	2014-07-24-11-42-08	507.9
    OPTION	2014-07-24-10-53-59	-2498
    OPTION	2014-07-24-11-08-32	-1426.3
    STOCK	2014-07-24-09-57-43	-715.9
    STOCK	2014-07-24-15-55-18	-4182.8
    STOCK	2014-07-24-15-55-19	-598.6
    STOCK	2014-07-25-11-39-00	961
    STOCK	2014-07-25-15-55-15	1768.8
    STOCK	2014-07-25-14-49-09	-1532.5
    STOCK	2014-07-28-09-57-44	2179.7
    STOCK	2014-07-28-10-52-11	-697.6
    STOCK	2014-07-28-09-38-04	82.3
    OPTION	2014-07-28-15-27-25	-1115.9
    STOCK	2014-07-29-12-23-11	451.2
    STOCK	2014-07-30-11-51-05	-3800.5
    STOCK	2014-07-30-12-11-37	-1955.5
    STOCK	2014-07-30-11-48-09	-3015.6
    OPTION	2014-07-30-15-20-39	4.2
    OPTION	2014-07-30-10-15-28	-331.3
    STOCK	2014-07-30-15-02-47	-777
    STOCK	2014-07-31-10-13-07	1107.1
    STOCK	2014-07-31-10-30-55	2443.7
    STOCK	2014-07-31-15-10-35	-197.8
    STOCK	2014-07-31-19-11-42	-2248.8
    STOCK	2014-08-01-15-31-03	1477.8
    OPTION	2014-08-01-15-50-11	444.1
    OPTION	2014-08-01-09-56-32	4168.7
    STOCK	2014-08-01-15-50-00	-1685.3
    STOCK	2014-08-01-10-16-05	2890.2
  141. Neke, do you trade full time or on the side with a full time job?
  142. Hi there,

    Nice journal.
    I haven't really read all the pages, would you care to summarize your strategy and how you implement it, obviously as high level as you desire.

    Thanks and best!
  143. Nice job, Neke.
  144. I have a full-time regular job. That helps a lot.
  145. I trade stocks and stock options (liquid ones). Long/short stocks, long options (short-side didn't work out, so I stopped that). Time-frame mostly intraday or single overnight. I place greater emphasis on fundamental analysis (making prediction based on that), not relying on chart analysis. Try to make all my judgement after-hours/pre-market and devise a plan for my system to execute intra-day: intention to hands off doing anything manual in the course of a trading day.
  146. Great job Neke!!!
  147. Good month!..

    Account stop loss definitely a great idea trading intra-day based on fundamentals.. Prices can be irrational (as you have found out often) for MUCH longer than a day.

    It is VERY impressive you do have done well with a fundamental bent on such a short time frame.
  148. SPY already back at a new high. Not sure what it is going to take to have a correction - Or at least go two months without new highs. I may have to put a pause on my short strategies.
  149. You know there are FUNDAMENTALS and there are fundamentals - I certainly don't apply it intraday the way Warren Buffet does.

    As for prices remaining irrational much longer than a day, there is no question about that. But on average irrationality dissipates with time.
  150. Period Update for August 8/2/2014 - 8/31/2014 (4 weeks)

    A good month, up 28K (22%).

    Another great month. Again failed finished well off the highs of the month. The last two weeks coincided with my vacation and fell into familiar routine of switching off my system to give free reigns to my discretion - paid for that with a massive options set back yesterday. Very much encouraged by stock3 (the same broad strategy that cost me 28K on CRAY in Feb). I knew with discipline it could perform.

    Stock4 came to life once again. It is kind of becoming a staple now.

    Opening Balance:     128,496
    Net gain for period       28,439
    Net Balance:       156,935
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 8/31/2014)
    Opening Balance:  101,037
    Net gain          77,398 (Up 77%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (21,500)
    Net Balance        156,935
    ejourntrend.PNG ejournmthly.png
  151. Code:
    STOCK   2014-08-04-09-52-06   2573.8
    STOCK   2014-08-04-11-08-09   8.7
    STOCK   2014-08-05-09-55-04   67.2
    STOCK   2014-08-06-10-27-09   1581.5
    STOCK   2014-08-06-14-48-01   5321
    STOCK   2014-08-06-10-46-20   -2468
    STOCK   2014-08-06-15-55-18   3032
    OPTION   2014-08-06-15-45-59   -1155.7
    STOCK   2014-08-06-15-55-17   11.9
    STOCK   2014-08-07-12-30-18   -442.7
    STOCK   2014-08-07-09-57-28   2703.9
    STOCK   2014-08-07-15-55-10   -99.5
    OPTION   2014-08-07-09-44-16   475.2
    OPTION   2014-08-07-12-29-39   -1586.3
    STOCK   2014-08-07-15-55-12   924.7
    STOCK   2014-08-07-10-53-21   -872.8
    STOCK   2014-08-08-10-49-29   -326.8
    STOCK   2014-08-08-09-34-45   3614.5
    STOCK   2014-08-08-14-22-55   4272.9
    STOCK   2014-08-08-11-12-52   4251.9
    STOCK   2014-08-08-12-07-52   -708.2
    STOCK   2014-08-11-12-29-25   5165.8
    STOCK   2014-08-11-10-23-20   7099.9
    OPTION   2014-08-11-15-36-42   -2475.7
    STOCK   2014-08-12-09-55-24   4029.4
    OPTION   2014-08-12-15-47-01   -2380.1
    STOCK   2014-08-13-09-54-53   5469.5
    OPTION   2014-08-13-13-47-26   -2986.6
    STOCK   2014-08-13-13-49-21   1941.4
    OPTION   2014-08-13-13-49-01   -439.3
    OPTION   2014-08-14-12-02-35   344.1
    OPTION   2014-08-14-10-41-48   -2494.9
    STOCK   2014-08-15-10-19-16   -1601.9
    OPTION   2014-08-15-14-20-01   2862.3
    STOCK   2014-08-18-11-11-48   -469.9
    OPTION   2014-08-18-11-14-04   1181.8
    STOCK   2014-08-18-14-26-55   619.3
    STOCK   2014-08-19-09-57-56   434.6
    STOCK   2014-08-19-15-45-56   -2773.1
    STOCK   2014-08-19-10-54-35   116.4
    STOCK   2014-08-19-15-47-01   84.3
    STOCK   2014-08-20-09-41-34   -4043.8
    STOCK   2014-08-20-10-11-42   591.3
    OPTION   2014-08-20-11-20-24   -954.5
    STOCK   2014-08-20-12-30-07   -109.5
    STOCK   2014-08-21-10-04-39   -4463.9
    STOCK   2014-08-21-15-55-12   -3664
    OPTION   2014-08-21-15-15-16   5908.9
    STOCK   2014-08-22-12-24-11   -1448.2
    STOCK   2014-08-22-09-45-59   3752.9
    STOCK   2014-08-22-09-54-45   1326.1
    STOCK   2014-08-22-10-48-45   -1949.3
    STOCK   2014-08-22-15-48-19   3727.5
    OPTION   2014-08-22-10-53-03   1987.2
    STOCK   2014-08-22-15-49-42   -297.1
    STOCK   2014-08-25-10-15-46   243.9
    STOCK   2014-08-25-13-19-33   -2707.8
    STOCK   2014-08-25-15-11-18   11446.3
    OPTION   2014-08-25-11-48-28   -1798.7
    OPTION   2014-08-25-10-42-00   3452
    OPTION   2014-08-25-10-34-46   1915.1
    STOCK   2014-08-25-15-49-39   -1567.8
    STOCK   2014-08-26-13-01-30   -5195.1
    STOCK   2014-08-26-14-29-41   384.1
    OPTION   2014-08-26-13-56-15   -1068.3
    STOCK   2014-08-26-14-22-19   1763.1
    OPTION   2014-08-27-10-46-34   3063
    STOCK   2014-08-27-12-16-55   422.1
    STOCK   2014-08-28-10-14-42   -32
    OPTION   2014-08-27-15-44-25   -14898.2
    STOCK   2014-08-28-09-49-17   1380.5
    OPTION   2014-08-29-14-58-40   -5120.4
    STOCK   2014-08-29-11-09-13   1035
    STOCK   2014-08-29-12-42-39   451.8
  152. Congratulations on fabulous profit.
    Just curious, you set $10000 for sock3 (Jan 14th), but how come you could have a loss of $26477 for it in Feb?
  153. stock3 is a strategy. The $10000 in Jan was the target profit set for the entire year on that strategy. In Feb instead of making a profit I lost 26K, mostly from one ill-advised trade (CRAY). Now the total loss on that strategy is just -2K, meaning I have recovered a substantial portion of that loss from that strategy
  154. I see. The amount is for the profit target, not the risk capital.
    Thanks for the explanation.
  155. How did you do for September?
  156. You just can't wait? :) Posting shortly - it was great!
  157. Period Update for September 31/8/2014 - 10/4/2014 (5 weeks)

    Another great month, up 41K (26%).

    Its becoming a really nice uptrend. Stock4 is unstoppable at the moment. Also made it good from option4 after the prior month's set-back. No run-away loser this month.

    Making money in the market becomes much easier with confidence. Now I am getting more attuned to the working methods, while not pushing it on the methods that are not living up to expectations - like stock2. I hope it is the beginning of a lasting trend.

    Opening Balance:                	156,935
    Net gain for period 		         40,519
    Cash Withdrawal				 (7,000)
    Net Balance:                   		190,454
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 10/4/2014)
    Opening Balance:                       101,037
    Net gain   	    	               117,917 (Up 117%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (28,500)
    Net Balance			       190,454
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2014-09-02-12-15-10	5112.5
    OPTION	2014-09-02-09-44-12	1901.8
    STOCK	2014-09-02-11-36-52	5832.5
    OPTION	2014-09-02-14-29-07	804.1
    STOCK	2014-09-02-14-28-48	2373.7
    STOCK	2014-09-02-13-14-18	224.1
    STOCK	2014-09-03-09-50-13	-7275.5
    OPTION	2014-09-03-11-11-51	7738.2
    OPTION	2014-09-04-11-09-11	-2777.1
    OPTION	2014-09-03-14-46-22	-6601.1
    STOCK	2014-09-04-10-52-39	1227.2
    OPTION	2014-09-04-15-35-47	4888.4
    STOCK	2014-09-04-15-53-23	972.3
    OPTION	2014-09-05-13-54-04	1663.5
    STOCK	2014-09-05-13-13-38	-751.1
    STOCK	2014-09-08-09-45-12	2423.8
    STOCK	2014-09-08-15-55-08	2725.6
    OPTION	2014-09-08-12-20-32	171.9
    STOCK	2014-09-09-11-08-02	-1407.9
    OPTION	2014-09-09-15-35-05	-1912
    STOCK	2014-09-10-14-00-53	-4261.7
    OPTION	2014-09-10-10-00-27	3958.5
    OPTION	2014-09-10-15-46-32	-2196.8
    STOCK	2014-09-10-15-50-49	-1540.9
    STOCK	2014-09-10-13-45-51	1192.9
    STOCK	2014-09-10-12-39-43	-867.7
    STOCK	2014-09-11-12-26-42	1711.1
    STOCK	2014-09-11-15-32-52	-110.2
    STOCK	2014-09-12-10-05-15	-1874.8
    STOCK	2014-09-12-15-55-03	8142.1
    OPTION	2014-09-12-15-52-54	1584.8
    STOCK	2014-09-15-15-55-04	-917.2
    STOCK	2014-09-17-15-55-12	142.7
    STOCK	2014-09-19-15-55-10	869.6
    STOCK	2014-09-19-15-49-19	940.5
    STOCK	2014-09-22-14-01-01	1530
    OPTION	2014-09-22-11-42-28	6959.8
    STOCK	2014-09-22-15-55-12	-1628
    STOCK	2014-09-22-15-55-14	492.1
    STOCK	2014-09-22-15-55-16	593.9
    STOCK	2014-09-23-14-55-26	3061.9
    STOCK	2014-09-23-10-09-57	3277
    OPTION	2014-09-23-15-31-01	-1251
    STOCK	2014-09-23-15-47-44	1757.8
    STOCK	2014-09-24-12-46-59	-8239.6
    STOCK	2014-09-25-15-55-09	-1618.8
    STOCK	2014-09-26-11-21-51	2730.7
    STOCK	2014-09-26-09-55-22	2777.3
    OPTION	2014-09-29-11-47-37	-2648.4
    STOCK	2014-09-29-15-55-15	1189.3
    STOCK	2014-09-30-10-44-18	-7594.4
    STOCK	2014-09-30-11-02-15	1322
    OPTION	2014-09-30-15-24-28	3111.4
    OPTION	2014-10-02-10-43-03	4567.9
    STOCK	2014-10-02-10-27-30	2307.7
    OPTION	2014-10-02-13-19-48	-5014.2
    STOCK	2014-10-02-13-19-53	6295.7
    STOCK	2014-10-02-11-16-02	-1502.9
    OPTION	2014-10-02-13-15-35	1848.3
    STOCK	2014-10-02-13-34-23	5331.3
    STOCK	2014-10-03-15-48-22	-3248.4
  158. Congrats. You know I root for you.
  159. I am betting that neke will be crushing it in the future if we have this kind of volatility, in addition to crushing it last month. Funny how it is deadly silent on the big up months. Where are the haters and armchair quarterbacks now?

    History proves the winners. As I said before, this guy has a proven track record of outperformance over his career, a bad year happens to the best in the biz. Keep up the good work!
  160. Loving this rebounce
  161. Period Update for October 10/4/2014 - 11/01/2014 (4 weeks)

    Monstrous month, up 142K (75%).

    Words are just non-existent to describe the feeling. First two weeks (coinciding with huge market declines) account for almost all the gain, with the last two weeks being lots of down/up ending to the upside. Again stock4 was great. option4 was just spectacular. That was a strategy I don't normally find lots of option opportunities because of the bid/ask spread consideration. With the increase of volatility, however, the expected move in the stocks suddenly justified paying the option spreads. Payed out dramatically. And of course as the balance grew, so grew my ability to size up.

    Yes, a few strategies did have a rough month, but not quite enough to dampen the good times.

    I haven't checked the details yet, but it appears I'm roughly back at/near new all-time cumulative P/L peak.

    Opening Balance:       190,454
    Net gain for period     142,210
    Net Balance:              332,664
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 11/01/2014)
    Opening Balance:        101,037
    Net gain                    260,127 (Up 257%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (28,500)
    Net Balance                332,664
    TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L
    STOCK   2014-10-06-15-47-04   -8553.9
    STOCK   2014-10-06-15-55-16   3365.1
    STOCK   2014-10-07-15-53-28   -844.2
    STOCK   2014-10-08-14-44-35   6900.3
    STOCK   2014-10-08-15-56-14   5264.2
    OPTION   2014-10-08-12-15-09   3280.8
    STOCK   2014-10-08-16-35-25   -604.3
    OPTION   2014-10-09-15-42-28   -4409.4
    STOCK   2014-10-09-15-58-45   775.3
    STOCK   2014-10-09-15-48-17   -623.7
    STOCK   2014-10-10-09-39-26   -2305.7
    STOCK   2014-10-10-10-30-09   -1435.7
    STOCK   2014-10-10-10-25-18   -1721.8
    OPTION   2014-10-10-14-51-07   1049.7
    STOCK   2014-10-10-14-57-40   2749
    OPTION   2014-10-10-10-14-55   8131.3
    STOCK   2014-10-10-15-37-37   -980.7
    STOCK   2014-10-10-13-10-38   15471.4
    OPTION   2014-10-10-15-17-01   1036.8
    OPTION   2014-10-10-15-39-53   24415.7
    STOCK   2014-10-13-10-20-46   3915.9
    STOCK   2014-10-13-15-17-44   6385.7
    STOCK   2014-10-13-14-39-21   -3725.3
    OPTION   2014-10-13-14-41-31   -2710.8
    STOCK   2014-10-13-15-19-16   -6492.1
    STOCK   2014-10-13-15-19-33   -2559.6
    STOCK   2014-10-13-14-01-04   -370.5
    OPTION   2014-10-13-15-10-08   670.8
    OPTION   2014-10-13-15-03-14   5394
    OPTION   2014-10-13-14-39-46   -2731.6
    STOCK   2014-10-14-12-22-44   7188.6
    OPTION   2014-10-14-11-43-57   5536.2
    STOCK   2014-10-14-12-22-43   5888.8
    STOCK   2014-10-14-11-35-28   725
    STOCK   2014-10-14-15-52-55   1444.9
    STOCK   2014-10-15-09-32-49   -2215.6
    OPTION   2014-10-15-10-27-52   8656.5
    OPTION   2014-10-15-10-44-12   12197.7
    STOCK   2014-10-15-11-53-03   3853.4
    OPTION   2014-10-15-11-42-16   5661.3
    STOCK   2014-10-15-11-53-02   4062.7
    STOCK   2014-10-16-09-31-59   -11103.5
    OPTION   2014-10-16-11-02-42   -5891.3
    OPTION   2014-10-16-13-09-19   13470.6
    OPTION   2014-10-16-13-11-57   5497.4
    OPTION   2014-10-16-13-25-57   17975.2
    STOCK   2014-10-17-11-06-52   2619
    OPTION   2014-10-20-09-57-29   8143.7
    OPTION   2014-10-20-10-28-19   -2761.7
    STOCK   2014-10-20-15-39-44   946
    STOCK   2014-10-21-14-01-18   -2596.6
    OPTION   2014-10-21-12-12-01   -115.4
    OPTION   2014-10-21-14-30-45   -6198.5
    OPTION   2014-10-21-09-57-25   -81.7
    STOCK   2014-10-21-15-25-41   42.6
    STOCK   2014-10-21-15-39-46   346.7
    STOCK   2014-10-22-09-31-18   -2955.4
    STOCK   2014-10-22-11-17-24   4956.7
    OPTION   2014-10-22-10-05-15   3643.9
    OPTION   2014-10-23-11-57-31   -9323.5
    STOCK   2014-10-23-11-27-08   -2018.3
    OPTION   2014-10-23-12-08-42   9945.2
    STOCK   2014-10-23-15-55-14   4139
    OPTION   2014-10-24-11-10-02   -8421.1
    STOCK   2014-10-24-15-53-52   2329
    STOCK   2014-10-24-11-40-44   -2717.4
    STOCK   2014-10-24-14-01-03   -4746.2
    STOCK   2014-10-24-15-55-18   3667.3
    STOCK   2014-10-27-11-56-15   1340.1
    STOCK   2014-10-28-12-41-35   3267.6
    STOCK   2014-10-28-14-00-11   -19335.7
    OPTION   2014-10-28-13-02-30   -7962
    STOCK   2014-10-28-15-55-32   880.9
    STOCK   2014-10-29-11-51-37   3435.6
    STOCK   2014-10-29-11-28-49   -542.3
    STOCK   2014-10-29-12-06-50   3391.5
    OPTION   2014-10-30-09-51-20   -5444.9
    STOCK   2014-10-30-14-47-59   -3698.8
    OPTION   2014-10-30-15-59-34   32409.1
    STOCK   2014-10-31-10-18-29   3561.1
    OPTION   2014-10-31-14-06-55   10379.1
  162. Great stuff neke.

  163. Awesome stuff neke, you always do better in volatile markets.

    Trading is a waiting game.

    Try not to lose too much of your profits while waiting for the next time when market conditions are very favourable for you.
  164. Well done. Inspiring...
  165. Congrats on the rebound neke, been following your journal for a few years now and it is nice to see you recovering in a big way. Wishing you the best.

    I am discretionary trader myself and looking to get into the world of automation. Would you mind sharing details of your automation trading platform (software, language, etc) and any pointers to someone who wants to get started with learning automation. Thanks in advance!
  166. I would think automation is the easy part. Going fully automated (meaning no discretion at all in choice and entry of trades day-in-day-out) is still something I am not yet at - There isn't any such strategy that I am pleased with the performance. My trading is what I call man-machine partnership. I do my research daily before market begins, pick target strategies and target stocks and define parameters and rules, and hands off to the automation once market begins for execution of those ideas.

    For my research, I use Visual Basic for automation of data collection (multiple free sources on the web), parsing, analysis etc), and of course do my own piece of reading (not just quantitative data).

    For trading intra-day, my system is developed in Java (multiple threads running). For interaction with my broker I use Quote-Tracker APIs. I do not do HFT-type trades - my average hold time is perhaps between 4 and 6 hours, so I don't sweat over millisecond latency.
  167. I sure will try hard this time to hang on to my gains. I think I am getting over the impulse to rush things and be reckless when account balance swells.
  168. OK seems the market has once again put off this event - going two months without new high. Previous high Sep 19. Thought with the declines in early Oct, surely this was the time for it to happen.
  169. Period Update for November 11/1/2014 - 11/29/2014 (4 weeks)

    Frustrating month, down $831 (0%). Its not the flatness of the month that makes it annoying, it is the needless loss of earlier gains of $100K for the month. Racked that up within the first three weeks only to go on a string of reckless behaviour on high leverage that took all that gain away, the worst being two days of madness on either side of Thanksgiving thursday.

    Back to the drawing board to analyze what happened, and how to avoid a repeat.

    Opening Balance:     332,664
    Net loss for period       831
    Cash Withdrawal         (10,000)
    Net Balance:       321,833
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 11/29/2014)
    Opening Balance:  101,037
    Net gain          259,296 (Up 257%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (38,500)
    Net Balance        321,833
    TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L
    STOCK   2014-11-03-12-08-31   9579.4
    STOCK   2014-11-03-11-17-21   1035.5
    OPTION   2014-11-04-15-24-04   7438
    OPTION   2014-11-04-12-01-02   -10424.9
    OPTION   2014-11-04-14-56-05   -668.3
    STOCK   2014-11-04-15-01-11   -8036.4
    STOCK   2014-11-04-15-55-33   -445.2
    OPTION   2014-11-05-15-52-09   918.3
    STOCK   2014-11-05-14-00-17   -4297
    STOCK   2014-11-05-15-55-17   -514.8
    STOCK   2014-11-05-15-49-29   -2594.3
    STOCK   2014-11-06-14-58-45   3752.8
    OPTION   2014-11-06-15-02-40   12294.7
    STOCK   2014-11-06-15-55-31   -6057.8
    STOCK   2014-11-06-15-49-11   -2816.1
    OPTION   2014-11-07-15-58-56   -14265.2
    STOCK   2014-11-07-10-01-50   -2512.1
    OPTION   2014-11-07-13-21-27   -15018.9
    OPTION   2014-11-07-13-27-28   18201.7
    OPTION   2014-11-07-15-33-02   -4656.1
    STOCK   2014-11-10-15-48-49   5589.4
    OPTION   2014-11-10-13-49-58   -4986.7
    OPTION   2014-11-11-10-26-25   1397.7
    OPTION   2014-11-11-10-45-01   -9973
    OPTION   2014-11-11-15-52-39   280.2
    OPTION   2014-11-11-15-57-47   22287.1
    OPTION   2014-11-12-14-36-02   10153.4
    STOCK   2014-11-13-13-24-59   -823.6
    STOCK   2014-11-13-15-44-09   5155.1
    STOCK   2014-11-13-15-01-07   -1512.8
    STOCK   2014-11-13-14-45-41   1968.8
    STOCK   2014-11-14-10-36-54   22054.5
    STOCK   2014-11-14-12-05-01   6512.9
    OPTION   2014-11-14-13-02-54   18409.7
    STOCK   2014-11-14-15-50-58   -14551.9
    STOCK   2014-11-14-15-11-17   4872.5
    OPTION   2014-11-14-15-45-37   7094.9
    STOCK   2014-11-17-14-42-35   22823.8
    STOCK   2014-11-17-13-09-24   286.3
    OPTION   2014-11-17-15-48-18   7722.9
    STOCK   2014-11-18-15-17-40   5294.7
    OPTION   2014-11-19-15-57-57   8286
    STOCK   2014-11-19-15-47-51   4164.4
    STOCK   2014-11-20-15-01-05   -2310.5
    OPTION   2014-11-21-11-13-27   -8081.6
    STOCK   2014-11-21-13-33-11   -8559.4
    STOCK   2014-11-21-11-55-19   3161.2
    STOCK   2014-11-21-15-35-32   882.1
    STOCK   2014-11-25-15-36-08   2266.6
    OPTION   2014-11-25-15-17-52   -7861.7
    STOCK   2014-11-26-10-16-14   -15487.7
    OPTION   2014-11-26-11-02-30   -33488.7
    STOCK   2014-11-26-15-25-44   3.400001
    STOCK   2014-11-26-15-23-18   -1299.8
    STOCK   2014-11-28-11-00-21   -10097.3
    STOCK   2014-11-28-11-00-39   -5935.5
    OPTION   2014-11-28-10-02-15   -2969.3
    OPTION   2014-11-28-10-37-33   -8248.9
    OPTION   2014-11-28-11-30-28   -5149
    OPTION   2014-11-28-10-24-22   -5406.8
    OPTION   2014-11-28-12-28-44   9473.4
    OPTION   2014-11-28-11-54-26   -3649.1
    STOCK   2014-11-28-10-59-28   -1494.7
  170. I am surprised you had such a lapse of self discipline after trading for so long. A big hurdle we all face and sometimes fall at. Good on you getting back on the trading horse though.
  171. "The Brave do not live forever, but the cautious do not live at all"... Richard Branson

    Neke.. Your braveness is uncommon but is necessary to get above average results. Problem is many see recklessness instead.. then again was Soros brave or reckless? The fine line between the two is if you manage the downside when the head goes crazy a little bit.
  172. how can you be up/down 100k when your whole account reads 300k..looks like your money management is screwed...
  173. Neke really doesnt do money management, he is a bit like Jesse Livermore, and has wild swings in his equity.
  174. Remind me again, what is 'Money Management'? :confused::confused::confused: I'm managing my own money. No???
  175. Mrs. Language Person would like to interpret "money management is screwed" to have meant "risk management is skewed".

    Mrs. Language Person would also like to respond to that poster by loosely quoting the ever-revered Warren Buffet: "If you can't handle a 40% drawdown you shouldn't be in the market."


    Keep on growing those green crops, Neke! ;)
  176. I have always wondered if Warren was referring to position or Account draw-down? I think Munger actually mentioned 50% on Youtube..
  177. That's a good point actually.... Warren does actually say to also preserve capital, no? Isn't this rule number one? I can see this making sense in terms of a position, but a 40% drawdown on the entire account would be huge.
  178. Neke's back!
  179. I been saying for years Neke was one of the best traders on this site and people just laughed. You are not going to see big gains without big drawdowns. The less you risk per trade the smaller your gains will be .
  180. Graham and Dodd investors don't see drawdowns as real. They see them as buying opportunities IF their fundamental thesis hadn't changed. Beekshire made some of its biggest investments in 2009 when their stock portfolio was down 30% and they were about to be downgraded because of their derivatives bet.
  181. Period Update for December 11/29/2014 - 1/3/2015 (5 weeks)

    Bad way to end the year, down 63K (19.5%). Rude reminder of what the market can do when you get complacent.

    I made 142K for October, the monstrous month earlier reported. Then thru the first few weeks of November (upto 19th November), I was up 100K for that month as well: almost two months of >100K each. Then the dream started. I realised that the size of those gains was abnormal relative to my account, but couldn't help but think of the time when this (>100K/month) becomes a normal occurrence (normal as in average). Of course it is OK to dream, but somewhere got lost in that dream, and the drawdown that followed was almost inevitable.

    Compounding the loss for this month was a 10K loss suffered from a blunder - left wrong instructions that my automation interpreted to go short, instead of intended go-long: by the time I realised, I was down 10K, when it should have been the opposite.

    As I go into 2015, I am cutting down size, and re-evaluating what is permissible. I don't need to take as many trades as I do. Emphasis remains making the most of those few GREAT opportunities, but it is important to avoid if the trades don't fit.

    For the year, was up 197K (195%).

    Opening Balance:     321,833
    Net loss for period       (62,734)
    Cash Withdrawal         (3,000)
    Net Balance:       256,099
    For the Thread YTD  2014 (1/4/2013 - 01/03/2015)
    Opening Balance:  101,037
    Net gain          197,562 (Up 195%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (42,500)
    Net Balance        256,099
    TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L
    STOCK   2014-12-01-14-00-59   -15888.6
    OPTION   2014-12-01-15-54-35   -6026
    OPTION   2014-12-01-15-54-34   -704.5
    STOCK   2014-12-01-15-49-16   5023.6
    STOCK   2014-12-01-15-52-39   -4385.3
    OPTION   2014-12-02-15-49-28   6773.1
    OPTION   2014-12-03-13-36-39   -4261.5
    STOCK   2014-12-04-15-47-01   13236.1
    STOCK   2014-12-04-11-19-37   -1292.1
    STOCK   2014-12-04-15-45-45   1307.1
    STOCK   2014-12-05-14-48-28   -4377.4
    STOCK   2014-12-05-13-02-08   -14196.3
    STOCK   2014-12-05-15-01-08   -10299.1
    STOCK   2014-12-08-15-36-05   -5309
    STOCK   2014-12-08-15-08-56   -15319.1
    OPTION   2014-12-08-14-23-47   -2788.8
    OPTION   2014-12-09-15-23-32   35314.6
    OPTION   2014-12-09-13-12-21   4174.3
    OPTION   2014-12-10-10-27-52   5038.1
    STOCK   2014-12-10-13-26-45   -276.8
    OPTION   2014-12-10-15-04-12   -4881.4
    STOCK   2014-12-11-12-09-27   1543.8
    STOCK   2014-12-12-15-36-20   -5453
    OPTION   2014-12-12-10-29-20   -7554.6
    STOCK   2014-12-12-14-57-39   3253.8
    OPTION   2014-12-12-10-40-14   -2940.1
    STOCK   2014-12-15-14-00-03   -25314.4
    OPTION   2014-12-15-13-41-27   2837.7
    STOCK   2014-12-15-13-40-45   613.5
    OPTION   2014-12-16-09-42-48   -1524.7
    OPTION   2014-12-16-14-37-41   11863.4
    STOCK   2014-12-17-09-33-40   -201.4
    OPTION   2014-12-17-11-21-41   -11436.3
    STOCK   2014-12-17-12-05-16   -10550.4
    STOCK   2014-12-17-15-32-01   1514.2
    STOCK   2014-12-18-11-08-35   3843.6
    OPTION   2014-12-18-11-02-04   1850.8
    STOCK   2014-12-18-11-52-45   1215.2
    STOCK   2014-12-19-09-52-15   5709.1
    STOCK   2014-12-19-14-52-37   6113.6
    STOCK   2014-12-19-09-34-48   -1862.2
    OPTION   2014-12-19-10-25-33   -6050.8
    STOCK   2014-12-19-14-53-04   1465.1
    STOCK   2014-12-22-15-01-07   -3923.9
    OPTION   2014-12-22-15-50-40   -3149
    OPTION   2014-12-23-15-25-50   -5288.6
    OPTION   2014-12-24-11-54-25   -4581.5
    OPTION   2014-12-26-11-11-51   -211.5
    OPTION   2014-12-26-15-37-05   3129.9
    STOCK   2014-12-26-15-49-59   1009.8
    OPTION   2014-12-29-14-32-07   3887.8
    STOCK   2014-12-29-15-55-11   -3707.5
    OPTION   2014-12-30-16-06-42   -3294.2
    STOCK   2014-12-30-12-09-20   1079.1
    STOCK   2014-12-31-15-00-47   4403.4
    STOCK   2014-12-31-15-01-13   3027.5
    STOCK   2014-12-31-15-33-10   -2648.9
    OPTION   2015-01-02-15-38-55   -5849.1
    STOCK   2015-01-02-15-02-38   730.9
    OPTION   2015-01-02-15-36-31   1901.4
    STOCK   2015-01-02-15-55-20   1113.4
    STOCK   2015-01-02-15-13-54   -152.8
  182. Excellent Neke.
  183. Have you done any correlation analysis relating to the different strategies? Many of them appear to have strong correlation which causes the massive swings in equity. At this rate you can only take 3 months like this and you're in the hole, significantly. Consider also that it was december, a fairly calm month.
  184. Ahhhhh yes a true gem of trading wisdom. I'm sure most of the stocks you're trading move the same way my index does. Almost every day, 1 trade will catch the majority of the action.
  185. There isn't much correlation between the strategies except market direction related, but between individual trades of each strategy. So if I am holding two positions in stock4 long - most of the time they will act the same way. Well, december was not quiet for some of my strategies like stock4. That was the best performing strategy before then, but turned in the worst performance of the year that month, basically accounting for all the losses (yes that included a blunder mentioned that might have made a +20K difference).
  186. Attached is the performance by strategies and by months. As depicted, stock4 accounts for all the loss in December. I am not too puzzled, because, apart from the blunder, it is not way out of expectation, like I will explain later when I present the 'Net Percentage' criterion for measuring performance
  187. Market direction related correlation is the real killer of "faulty diversification" as it tends to be highest when the volatility is sky high. If you're often long in correlated equities with similar time-frames then it's my suggestion that you kill the lesser strategy, effectively minimizing risk. Have you run the returns for correlation?
  188. Now time to review the performance of my strategies over the last year. The earlier chart shows the absolute ($) returns of the strategies. On the basis of that you think option4 was the best strategy, and that option1, stock1,stock2,stock3 were all losing strategies. However, I go back to analyze performance based on "Net Percentage" gains. For example, if a strategy had two trades: one was a gain of $6,000 in January with a balance of $100,000 in the account, while the second trade was a loss of 12,000 in November with an account balance of $400,000. On the whole the strategy would seem to have lost $6,000 for the year, so is a losing strategy. But based on percentages it is actually profitable - the first trade returned +6%, while the second trade was -3%. Total percentage comes to +3% which is positive. Over the last year my equity balance has ranged from about $80K to a high of $400K+ (sometime in November), so I take cognisance of that in computing performance.

    I also try to adjust for "compounding effect" of losses, by using reciprocals. If a trade lost 20% of my equity balance, I know I need +25% to return to break-even, so in determining Net Percent contribution, that trade will be treated as negative 25%. I sum all the contributions for all trades in the strategy and below is the summary of the results for the year by strategies.

    From the summary, I could really say there is one losing strategy (stock2 - of which minus 28% was from the CRAY trade in February)

       2014  P/L    2014 Net Percent
    stock4     97609     66.7
    option4     120250     52.2
    option2     19379     20.7
    stock5     20445     12.1
    stock3     -25476     11.1
    option1     -2815     01.6
    stock1     -10804     00.4
    stock2     -22023       -11.1
  189. Well done, excellent return!
  190. In the Hedge Fund Market Wizards book, Jack Schwager uses a ratio he calls Gain to Pain ratio. It measures return to risk. Can you calculate this ratio for 2014? The formula is very simple..sum up monthly returns and then divide by the absolute sum of the negative monthly returns.
  191. Congrats for the year! I guess it is time to look back and analyze your performance.

    The last 12 weeks' performance is scary to say the least. The first 6 weeks ( Oct- mid-Nov) you made 242K (scary good) and the second 6 weeks you lost 163K (scary bad). So basicly in the same timeframes of 6-6 weeks you lost 2/3rd of the previous gains. That is something to think about...

    Also maybe you could give something more positive title to the 2015 journal, like Back in the saddle again, or The road to consistency...

    Best wishes for the next year and thanks for the journal!!
  192. I have followed Neke's journal as it is raw and one can really learn a lot.

    Losing a good chunck of previous gains : any advice regarding that?

  193. There is a mix-up in the calculation above. Just re-did it and the net percentages should be as follows

    stock4   0.667
    option4  0.522
    option2  0.207
    stock5   0.121
    option1  0.016
    stock2   0.004
    stock1  -0.111
    stock3  -0.196
  194. For 2015, I have set percentage targets for the strategies as follows. I have also renamed the strategies with better initials for me to correlate. (0.10 means 10%)

    Strategy  2015 Targ Former Name
    STK-FCS      0.30   stock4
    OPN-FCR      0.22   option4
    OPN-OPM      0.15   option2
    STK-ATM      0.10   stock5
    OPN-EPL      0.05   option1
    STK-PMS      0.05   stock1
    STK-PML      0.05   stock2
    STK-CNO      0.05   split from stock3
    STK-CNT      0.03   split from stock3
    TOTAL        1.00
  195. From your definition that would be 1.65 from the monthly figures earlier posted. Not sure whether this is good or bad.
  196. Not starting a new journal for 2015, will just keep the monthly updates here. From your analysis (and like I know very well), there is no smooth sailing even here - it is still a battle. I hope obeying restrictions on my trades will make it a smoother ride.
  197. According to Schwager, for liquid strategies, a Gain to Pain Ratio of over 1.0 is very good and over 1.5 is excellent.

    Did you calculate yours using the percentage per month...i forgot to mention that before, apols.
  198. In isolation, it's neither good nor bad. Performance is better analyzed in the context of the overall trading strategies.

    For example, some highly profitable trading strategies have a high win rate, but the small % of losses are relatively large. So giving back 2/3 of gains at a given point would be "good" (3 steps forward, 2 steps back, net result = consistently profitable trading over time).

    If giving back 2/3 of gains was the result of straying from the methods that produced positive expectancy during the testing phase, then it would be "bad" (places the trader at a high risk of ruin).

    If giving back 2/3 of gains was the result of circumstances not encountered during the testing phase, then it would be a signal to re-evaluate the strategies affected by those circumstances.
  199. Period Update for January 1/3/2015 - 1/31/2015 (4 weeks)

    Great start to the new year, up 49.5K (19%).

    It was a roller-coaster month, first down near -30K, then got as high as +64K, then this week almost gave back the gains, but then rebounded to close +49K.

    I certainly took too many trades. Combination of increased volatility and earning season. Will work on better selectivity next month.

    The two best performing strategies for last year accounted for the gains this month. Rough start on STK-CNT and STK-ATM. Lost more than my target gain for the year in the former. Will be implementing some restrictions and size reductions on that strategy.

    I am sticking with the Net Percentage target for the year of +100%. However, because of the expected benefit of compounding, I am setting a dollar target of $400K for the year as in the attachment.

    Opening Balance:     256,099
    Net gain for period       49,492
    Cash Withdrawal          (3,500)
    Net Balance:       302.091
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 1/31/2015)
    Opening Balance:  256,099
    Net gain          49,492 (Up 19%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (3,500)
    Net Balance        302,091
    TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L
    OPTION   2015-01-05-14-55-32   -12913.7
    STOCK   2015-01-05-15-30-05   1285.3
    OPTION   2015-01-05-15-11-21   -11149
    STOCK   2015-01-05-15-36-57   -1907.9
    STOCK   2015-01-05-12-34-54   -2792.2
    STOCK   2015-01-05-14-00-17   -1421.6
    STOCK   2015-01-06-15-45-02   4677
    STOCK   2015-01-06-15-33-45   167.8
    OPTION   2015-01-06-14-44-15   -3270.3
    OPTION   2015-01-06-14-44-18   5555.6
    OPTION   2015-01-06-15-05-29   2510.7
    OPTION   2015-01-06-15-15-35   5004.6
    STOCK   2015-01-07-11-58-20   23013.4
    STOCK   2015-01-07-15-55-14   1926.6
    OPTION   2015-01-08-10-45-07   4378.5
    OPTION   2015-01-08-14-45-26   8569.7
    OPTION   2015-01-08-10-13-50   -6294.1
    STOCK   2015-01-09-12-17-20   116
    OPTION   2015-01-09-13-04-34   11414.4
    STOCK   2015-01-12-11-46-25   7455.7
    STOCK   2015-01-12-10-53-40   5006.3
    STOCK   2015-01-12-14-34-00   -486.8
    OPTION   2015-01-12-15-35-59   1304.1
    OPTION   2015-01-13-15-49-17   -3490.1
    OPTION   2015-01-13-15-47-29   -3301.9
    OPTION   2015-01-13-15-54-02   -2282.2
    OPTION   2015-01-13-15-58-52   1717.7
    OPTION   2015-01-14-10-33-32   1337.7
    OPTION   2015-01-14-10-15-16   -7581.6
    OPTION   2015-01-14-10-05-49   -7268.2
    OPTION   2015-01-15-11-05-35   2946.7
    STOCK   2015-01-14-15-48-32   2248.3
    STOCK   2015-01-14-15-37-34   98
    OPTION   2015-01-14-16-08-07   2664.8
    OPTION   2015-01-14-15-39-57   -2620.7
    OPTION   2015-01-14-15-30-19   5664
    STOCK   2015-01-14-15-55-16   1327.4
    STOCK   2015-01-15-12-01-09   1416.1
    STOCK   2015-01-15-14-59-29   1236
    STOCK   2015-01-15-12-05-12   85.9
    OPTION   2015-01-15-15-00-17   924.8
    OPTION   2015-01-15-15-00-28   -1228.5
    STOCK   2015-01-16-15-49-04   3419.9
    OPTION   2015-01-16-15-48-45   8577.7
    STOCK   2015-01-20-15-44-59   -1678.7
    STOCK   2015-01-20-16-15-58   1343.7
    OPTION   2015-01-22-10-29-34   205.3
    OPTION   2015-01-21-15-50-59   -2767.6
    OPTION   2015-01-22-14-26-38   -2729.1
    STOCK   2015-01-22-11-17-02   888.9
    OPTION   2015-01-23-10-23-19   14779.9
    STOCK   2015-01-23-15-55-18   -3027.6
    OPTION   2015-01-23-15-33-31   -2239.8
    OPTION   2015-01-23-15-49-58   2051.7
    OPTION   2015-01-23-15-46-36   9067.4
    STOCK   2015-01-26-15-43-23   444.9
    OPTION   2015-01-26-15-54-09   -5201.2
    OPTION   2015-01-26-15-54-07   -4241.2
    STOCK   2015-01-26-14-12-34   445.4
    OPTION   2015-01-27-15-49-19   -3535.9
    OPTION   2015-01-27-15-58-05   -1449.1
    STOCK   2015-01-27-15-56-33   -749.8
    OPTION   2015-01-27-15-51-14   -3048.1
    OPTION   2015-01-27-15-53-27   -441.3
    OPTION   2015-01-29-13-26-42   2523.6
    STOCK   2015-01-28-15-23-12   -12124.4
    OPTION   2015-01-28-14-01-20   -6283.8
    STOCK   2015-01-28-15-51-27   -7679.4
    STOCK   2015-01-29-09-39-27   2059.8
    STOCK   2015-01-29-12-10-39   3536.9
    STOCK   2015-01-29-13-28-08   3783.3
    OPTION   2015-01-29-13-42-42   8209.6
    STOCK   2015-01-30-11-36-21   -2098.4
    OPTION   2015-01-30-12-00-07   9171.8[ATTACH]148858[/ATTACH] [ATTACH]148859[/ATTACH]
    OPTION   2015-01-30-15-45-16   11305.1
    STOCK   2015-01-30-15-38-18   1794.3
    STOCK   2015-01-30-15-37-51   -2676.5
    OPTION   2015-01-30-15-46-52   -5246.6
    OPTION   2015-01-30-15-39-23   -2943.3
  200. 94K swing in a 250K account.. you're nuts.
  201. Based on the list he posted, his biggest losing trades were around 5% last month.
    If my memory recalls he has lost 10%+ on trades before.

    You going to get big swings in equity when you risk that much. 50%+ drawdowns and 200% up years etc

    Neke has a full time job i think so he can take those kinds of losses.
  202. Bill Dunn has 50% drawdowns and if his clients ask him even one question,he kicks them? Neke needs 5 billionaire clients.
  203. 94K positive swing in a 250K account.. you're doing great.
  204. Markets at new high once again. Not even two months (Dec 29 - Feb 12 for SPY). Still waiting for 2 months of no new highs. Account performance outstanding nonetheless.
  205. Period Update for February 1/31/2015 - 2/28/2015 (4 weeks)

    Another good month, up 99.8K (33%).

    Delighted to have another great month, although I didn't like some of the trading done. First two weeks was stellar, could almost do nothing wrong, then the third week (shortened trading week), became fixated with CYBR. Lost a total of 125K in three attempts to fade that stock (with PUT options, on increased leverage). Those were by far the largest losing trades of the month (-37152.9,-42549.5, -46228.4). Felt so vulnerable after that: need to start each day's ideas without mental hangover from prior session(s).

    Disappointing performance on OPN-FCR, one of the two best-performing of last year. Fortunately, made enough from other strategies to gloss over this.

    Opening Balance:                	302,091
    Net gain for period 		         99,842
    Cash Withdrawal				 (3,500)
    Net Balance:                   		398,433
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 2/28/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	               149,334 (Up 58%)
    Cash Withdrawal			        (7,000)
    Net Balance			       398,433
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2015-02-02-15-38-42	8965.3
    OPTION	2015-02-02-15-37-36	11421.2
    STOCK	2015-02-03-12-27-44	6932.7
    STOCK	2015-02-03-12-50-09	-2016.9
    STOCK	2015-02-03-14-05-06	7379.4
    STOCK	2015-02-04-10-58-15	852.1
    OPTION	2015-02-04-11-35-03	7584.1
    OPTION	2015-02-04-12-16-26	4320.9
    STOCK	2015-02-04-15-53-57	1237.7
    STOCK	2015-02-05-15-09-41	872.4
    OPTION	2015-02-05-15-47-41	3925.5
    OPTION	2015-02-05-12-28-31	10232.1
    STOCK	2015-02-05-15-24-59	-556.8
    STOCK	2015-02-06-15-01-09	-3302.6
    OPTION	2015-02-06-15-00-27	-559.2
    OPTION	2015-02-06-15-18-22	-2422.3
    OPTION	2015-02-06-13-11-12	7924.5
    STOCK	2015-02-06-15-55-13	-4978.1
    STOCK	2015-02-09-09-44-23	4908.3
    STOCK	2015-02-09-09-43-29	1174.9
    STOCK	2015-02-09-12-49-50	90
    STOCK	2015-02-09-15-55-29	-739.2
    STOCK	2015-02-10-15-49-32	6657
    STOCK	2015-02-10-13-13-43	3874.8
    STOCK	2015-02-10-15-45-06	935.9
    OPTION	2015-02-11-09-50-53	2767.7
    STOCK	2015-02-11-15-55-26	-670.1
    STOCK	2015-02-12-09-31-05	-2383
    OPTION	2015-02-12-14-47-45	19357
    OPTION	2015-02-12-12-02-58	-27865
    STOCK	2015-02-12-12-18-31	4847.5
    OPTION	2015-02-12-14-58-21	-1100.5
    OPTION	2015-02-12-13-32-00	31736
    STOCK	2015-02-12-12-18-06	5758.2
    STOCK	2015-02-12-15-01-04	-11085.2
    STOCK	2015-02-12-15-55-13	2824.1
    STOCK	2015-02-13-15-12-16	39582.2
    STOCK	2015-02-13-14-15-43	7958.2
    OPTION	2015-02-13-10-08-19	-1005.8
    STOCK	2015-02-13-15-55-35	3932.7
    OPTION	2015-02-19-12-06-22	-37152.9
    OPTION	2015-02-20-11-34-02	-42549.5
    OPTION	2015-02-19-11-08-22	-14009.6
    OPTION	2015-02-19-14-42-08	-3681.5
    OPTION	2015-02-19-14-38-46	28716.8
    OPTION	2015-02-20-11-02-49	10952
    OPTION	2015-02-20-12-38-01	-46228.4
    OPTION	2015-02-20-12-35-11	7916.8
    OPTION	2015-02-20-15-49-29	17689.1
    STOCK	2015-02-23-11-09-15	1028
    STOCK	2015-02-23-15-51-17	756.3
    OPTION	2015-02-23-09-52-52	-17.8
    OPTION	2015-02-23-15-10-12	2859.5
    OPTION	2015-02-24-09-40-36	-5050.5
    STOCK	2015-02-24-12-31-52	1923.6
    OPTION	2015-02-24-11-35-19	-8049.6
    OPTION	2015-02-24-15-44-34	7824.6
    STOCK	2015-02-25-14-39-24	8775.9
    STOCK	2015-02-25-10-00-06	-2785
    OPTION	2015-02-26-15-30-42	-8257.4
    STOCK	2015-02-25-15-55-17	2490.6
    OPTION	2015-02-25-15-49-56	5958.5
    STOCK	2015-02-25-15-01-09	-15018.5
    STOCK	2015-02-26-15-01-07	-4733
    STOCK	2015-02-26-15-49-37	-3892.4
    STOCK	2015-02-26-15-18-53	7909.5
    OPTION	2015-02-27-10-28-23	23068.8
    STOCK	2015-02-27-11-39-47	14021.7
  206. It must feel great to make 100K in a month, but your large bets mean you are playing with fire and one day you could get hit by a black swan that takes out your whole account.

  207. Hope to see your current acct reaches one million dollar mark within the year.
  208. If Neke can reach the $1m mark, then I think he should take out half his money as insurance.
  209. Wow... You've got to find an MAE that makes sense and cut off losses there no matter what.. How many trades have you had that went over 10% account negative that became good?? There is no account size that cannot be lost when dealing in percentages... account gets big and we think the gravity pull is zero.

  210. How about just using option to trade so you don't risk all the capital. Say, you use 2% of fund for each trade, and you cap your max positions at 10 at anytime. So your max lost is 20% at worst in case of a black swan event, as options give you more than 5X leverage over stocks.
  211. Options have bigger spreads and you need to consider the greeks.
  212. How can superman possibly come unstuck ?
  213. I don't think this kind of volatility is sustainable. 30% draw-down ("Lost a total of 125K in three attempts to fade that stock") intra-month (intraday ?) is madness.

    I don't mean to be disrespectful but i think neke is a greed-junkie... totally hooked the high generated by tremendous returns...

    It can only end badly... but, by all means neke, prove me wrong..
  214. Shakespeare said “A coward dies a thousand times before his death, but the valiant taste of death but once". The fear of a black swan is overblown. I do not stake 100% of my account in an OTM weekly option (something that can lose 99% in a flash). Even with stocks, when I take a position with 100% or more intraday - it is probably not going to be a stock with question marks, something that can go 50% or more intraday. So its hard for me to see a scenario where I would lose 100% of account if played according to rules. People making investment decisions on their own are known to underperform the market over long periods of time because of emotional decision making - fear of total loss when they are down 5%, and complacency when they are up 20%. You could say fear of black swan has killed more traders than actual black swans.

    I sure would like to prove you wrong. My average option position is still only 7%. There is still room for more risk-taking if the odds are high - I am still working at defining the criteria for such high conviction trades.
  215. It's not the black swan Neke needs to be worried about. Rather, it's the possibility for a prolonged losing streak in his discretionary trading system as had happened in the past.
  216. Teddy said, "It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."

    I'm rootin' for ya Neke
  217. Period Update for March (2/28/2015 - 4/3/2015) (5 weeks)

    Terrible month, down 70K (17.6%).

    Another terrible show for OPN-FCR (down 88K for the month), one of the two best-performing of last year. Not sure whether part of it had to do with trying to recoup the losses on that strategy last month. Backfired in a bad way. I opened up the flood gates to take more trades this year, but the performance tells me the strength of the strategy is in selectivity. Initial target was for 40 trades this year on the strategy. I have already done 80.

    I'm taking extra steps to enforce the selectivity and reduce trading there. Hoping for a better April.

    Opening Balance:                	398,433
    Net loss for period 		        (70,326)
    Cash Withdrawal				 (4,500)
    Net Balance:                   		323,607
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 4/3/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	                79,008 (Up 31%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (11,500)
    Net Balance			       323,607
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2015-03-02-15-51-29	-8000.2
    OPTION	2015-03-02-15-23-24	-2081.8
    STOCK	2015-03-02-15-05-02	492.4
    STOCK	2015-03-03-15-41-28	1407
    OPTION	2015-03-03-15-59-19	903.9
    OPTION	2015-03-03-15-42-01	3908.3
    OPTION	2015-03-04-10-15-29	-4674.6
    OPTION	2015-03-04-14-59-16	16236.2
    OPTION	2015-03-04-10-36-47	-10318.9
    OPTION	2015-03-04-15-57-18	6368.4
    OPTION	2015-03-06-09-59-17	7994
    STOCK	2015-03-06-10-26-28	3142.6
    OPTION	2015-03-06-15-41-49	-45664.1
    STOCK	2015-03-06-15-42-14	-3259.6
    STOCK	2015-03-06-15-28-48	2742.7
    OPTION	2015-03-06-15-41-12	-26633.1
    STOCK	2015-03-09-09-42-37	-389.7
    OPTION	2015-03-09-09-44-06	-1961.2
    OPTION	2015-03-09-10-11-22	17392.6
    OPTION	2015-03-09-13-08-51	2216.9
    OPTION	2015-03-09-14-30-40	3171
    OPTION	2015-03-09-15-12-10	-4649.1
    STOCK	2015-03-09-15-23-55	-3081.6
    OPTION	2015-03-10-15-45-47	-11747.6
    OPTION	2015-03-10-15-44-04	-5173.1
    OPTION	2015-03-10-09-45-16	-480.7
    OPTION	2015-03-10-12-21-26	33766.8
    STOCK	2015-03-10-15-41-51	-764.9
    STOCK	2015-03-11-15-44-58	-6359.8
    STOCK	2015-03-11-15-41-22	1360.6
    STOCK	2015-03-12-09-38-14	-2326
    OPTION	2015-03-12-09-30-57	-7688.1
    OPTION	2015-03-12-10-31-21	-12230.3
    OPTION	2015-03-12-09-51-06	2395
    STOCK	2015-03-12-11-26-40	6919.9
    STOCK	2015-03-12-12-34-14	-1415.4
    OPTION	2015-03-13-10-04-32	-924.7
    OPTION	2015-03-13-09-56-14	-5558.4
    OPTION	2015-03-13-09-54-16	16541
    OPTION	2015-03-16-15-52-30	-12185.7
    OPTION	2015-03-16-15-52-10	9844.4
    OPTION	2015-03-16-10-19-26	-446.8
    OPTION	2015-03-17-15-51-09	-8469.3
    STOCK	2015-03-17-15-55-17	1396.6
    STOCK	2015-03-18-15-05-26	5767.7
    OPTION	2015-03-18-11-10-37	-15655.9
    OPTION	2015-03-18-09-55-17	-2083.9
    STOCK	2015-03-18-15-52-16	2209.9
    OPTION	2015-03-19-12-16-57	49.9
    OPTION	2015-03-20-15-26-12	-9975.1
    STOCK	2015-03-20-10-05-06	2766.3
    OPTION	2015-03-20-10-59-19	-8921.1
    OPTION	2015-03-20-15-41-53	15200.4
    OPTION	2015-03-23-11-38-44	4595.9
    OPTION	2015-03-23-15-58-56	-5436.8
    OPTION	2015-03-24-09-44-11	-841.2
    OPTION	2015-03-24-15-52-49	-970.6
    STOCK	2015-03-24-13-09-16	6379.7
    OPTION	2015-03-24-11-54-21	-881.9
    STOCK	2015-03-25-09-40-57	3485
    OPTION	2015-03-25-12-36-43	17176.8
    STOCK	2015-03-25-15-12-02	-13720.9
    STOCK	2015-03-26-14-56-02	2353.3
    OPTION	2015-03-26-14-51-38	1145
    STOCK	2015-03-26-10-46-08	1721.2
    OPTION	2015-03-26-10-06-57	-3030.2
    OPTION	2015-03-26-10-02-09	-494.1
    OPTION	2015-03-26-13-56-56	10563.1
    OPTION	2015-03-27-14-08-32	-37867.7
    STOCK	2015-03-30-10-56-39	3415.8
    STOCK	2015-03-30-15-55-13	4664.2
    OPTION	2015-03-31-15-58-45	6398.3
    STOCK	2015-04-01-15-49-31	-4098.7
    OPTION	2015-04-01-15-46-59	-9589.2
    STOCK	2015-04-01-11-43-17	1796.4
    OPTION	2015-04-02-13-11-22	-5157
    STOCK	2015-04-02-13-12-24	4102.2
    STOCK	2015-04-02-15-09-53	-926.1
    OPTION	2015-04-02-15-11-30	-207.4
    OPTION	2015-04-02-15-10-22	302.6
    STOCK	2015-04-02-15-09-30	3594.8
  218. neke 01.jpg
    Another 20% swing... it looks dangerous to me but what do i know...
  219. Actually the swing started from November. I had a 75% month in October. Since then it has been turbulent as seen from this chart (starting with the 331K starting balance for November - I have withdrawn some money since then of course) Nov2014Mar2015.png
  220. How are you holding up psychologically ?. Aren't you emotionally drained ? These swings must be alternatively exhilarating and nerve-wracking...
  221. Seems like other people have more of an issue with his equity swings than he does!
  222. Every draw-down is emotionally draining, but that is the nature of the work. One thing I have been looking at with this last months loss is how much I have been "paying to play" options. My findings are even more troubling. Basically the costs in question are from two sources

    1) bid-ask spread (or slippage). When you have an option with bid 7.00 and ask 9.00. If you buy at ask, and sell at bid, you've instantly lost 22% of the premium. Of course you could do better by putting in a bid at 8.50, and selling at 7.50 - reduces the 'cost' to 12% - with reasonable chance of getting an immediate fill. Part of the solution is to only trade options with better liquidity, but avoiding the slippage is impossible if you must get fills when you want. I figure my true options slippage cost has been between 5% and 10% of the premium. Over the period in question (Nov 2014 to Mar 2015), I made 182 option trades (round-trips) with total purchase premium of $4,564,000. At that rate, that works out to a slippage cost of between $228,000 and $456,000. Now I am getting really frightened how much I have paid to the market maker. The strategies themselves are not to blame, but the cost trumps whatever edge there was.

    2)Commission. Well that is inescapable. It worked out to $30,065 for those option trades. That again is another cost to play.

    The summary is that I have to be more selective in my option plays, restrict trading to ones with best liquidity (which at times is not good when I want to make the trade), and possibly look to elongate my trading timeframe for options. Its almost a continuous cycle of learning and re-learning.
  223. A retail account should be able to trade options at very close to mid regardless of liquidity of the options.

    All the market makers want to interact with retail flow. They even pay money to brokers for the privelege.
  224. How close to the mid? From my experience, in the example I gave, yes I could get a fill at 8.50, but almost certainly not at 8.00 (unless the market has meanwhile moved against me). And of course I want fast execution (not let it sit there and let the situation change).
  225. You might be able to get that for 8.10. Sometimes your fill will be 8.5 but you should find more executions at mid than your assumptions allow.
  226. Interesting chart...it appears that if Neke had stopped trading for the month as soon as that early rising LTL broke down, he'd had saved himself nearly $60K in losses.

    I think a study is in order:

    Do Risk Management Rules Based On Technical Analysis of One's Evolving Equity Graph Preserve Capital?

  227. I would call it sideways, as performance goes. You have made 16K since November (hard to see it on the chart), so that is still profitable, although "only" 3K per month...
  228. Period Update for April (4/4/2015 - 5/2/2015) (4 weeks)

    Nice month, up 68K (21%). Almost a complete recovery of last month's loss.

    My options trading came back alive this month, especially OPN-OPM. The performance there is vastly outperforming what I had in mind at the beginning of the year, although I always knew the potential. Still trying to make headway with OPN-FCR.

    Looking for even better selectivity in May. That is the key to outperformance.

    Opening Balance:                	323,607
    Net gain for period 		         67,675
    Cash Withdrawal				 (3,500)
    Net Balance:                   		387,782
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 5/2/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	               146,683 (Up 57%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (15,000)
    Net Balance			       387,782
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    OPTION	2015-04-06-15-09-39	17210
    STOCK	2015-04-06-14-03-00	3485.3
    STOCK	2015-04-06-15-54-44	-2457.1
    STOCK	2015-04-06-15-55-12	-1180.4
    STOCK	2015-04-08-14-26-46	-884
    STOCK	2015-04-08-10-42-56	232.2
    OPTION	2015-04-08-15-17-17	850.3
    OPTION	2015-04-08-11-07-46	-6095.6
    STOCK	2015-04-08-15-27-43	-556.9
    STOCK	2015-04-09-09-43-37	3055.1
    STOCK	2015-04-09-15-52-13	5164.3
    OPTION	2015-04-09-11-23-59	13049.6
    STOCK	2015-04-10-10-37-33	-3738.7
    STOCK	2015-04-10-09-31-05	1423.4
    OPTION	2015-04-10-15-36-44	6884
    OPTION	2015-04-10-10-02-41	-20609.5
    OPTION	2015-04-10-14-52-21	18028.2
    OPTION	2015-04-10-10-18-31	-3776.7
    STOCK	2015-04-13-10-37-32	-1857.5
    STOCK	2015-04-13-14-48-03	1894.9
    OPTION	2015-04-13-13-56-56	2087.7
    STOCK	2015-04-14-15-51-40	1410.1
    OPTION	2015-04-14-12-33-17	-10068.5
    STOCK	2015-04-14-15-17-48	-1304.9
    STOCK	2015-04-15-16-27-17	-8936.1
    STOCK	2015-04-16-12-56-04	420.9
    STOCK	2015-04-16-10-29-06	-2303.8
    OPTION	2015-04-16-10-28-59	-6217.5
    STOCK	2015-04-16-10-20-16	-4009.9
    STOCK	2015-04-16-15-06-25	2884.5
    STOCK	2015-04-17-13-31-09	8734.8
    STOCK	2015-04-17-15-55-13	-3410.5
    STOCK	2015-04-20-15-57-18	-99.4
    STOCK	2015-04-21-15-01-45	-5999.3
    STOCK	2015-04-21-12-36-17	-4573.3
    OPTION	2015-04-21-15-40-05	-9330.6
    STOCK	2015-04-22-11-23-06	3608.8
    OPTION	2015-04-22-15-48-30	12964
    STOCK	2015-04-22-15-20-29	3450.8
    STOCK	2015-04-23-14-44-00	-1169.4
    STOCK	2015-04-23-11-27-34	-114.4
    OPTION	2015-04-24-10-33-48	1977.9
    STOCK	2015-04-23-14-42-54	-1973.7
    STOCK	2015-04-24-10-32-33	-2035.3
    STOCK	2015-04-23-19-19-55	-813.8
    STOCK	2015-04-24-11-45-00	11815.1
    OPTION	2015-04-24-13-04-07	16200.3
    STOCK	2015-04-24-09-35-11	-11.1
    STOCK	2015-04-24-15-56-56	-2098.4
    STOCK	2015-04-24-15-44-06	1604.1
    STOCK	2015-04-24-15-48-26	1138.6
    STOCK	2015-04-24-13-26-19	204.6
    STOCK	2015-04-27-15-55-17	-3624.6
    OPTION	2015-04-27-10-56-19	29803.2
    STOCK	2015-04-28-09-50-47	909.4
    STOCK	2015-04-28-10-02-23	-5285.4
    OPTION	2015-04-28-10-13-44	-10449.6
    STOCK	2015-04-28-10-17-54	12466.7
    STOCK	2015-04-28-15-50-05	-6869.4
    STOCK	2015-04-29-15-55-20	4683.3
    STOCK	2015-04-29-15-55-22	-5226.4
    STOCK	2015-04-29-15-49-22	2088.9
    OPTION	2015-04-29-15-50-48	6660.3
    STOCK	2015-05-01-09-31-15	-10481.5
    OPTION	2015-05-01-14-46-09	18759.2
    ejournmthly.png ejourntrend.PNG
  229. Period Update for April (5/2/2015 - 5/31/2015) (4 weeks)

    Ugly month, down 51K (13%).

    First week was really ugly, down 99K (25%). Managed to recover some of that the rest of the month. But it was sheer lack of discipline. Always too quick to open the floodgates to take more trades after a successful run, feeling I could make more. Unfortunately that always results in crappy trades, and big toll on my performance, especially with options - where the cost of each trade is significant.

    Looking for better selectivity in June (again!). That is the key to outperformance. The roller-coaster performance since November last year is becoming alarming.

    Opening Balance:                	387,782
    Net loss for period 		        (50,613)
    Cash Withdrawal				 (5,500)
    Net Balance:                   		331,669
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 5/31/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	                96,070 (Up 37%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (20,500)
    Net Balance			       331,669
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2015-05-04-10-36-41	2176.7
    STOCK	2015-05-06-15-11-00	-15502.6
    STOCK	2015-05-04-15-55-14	4109.8
    STOCK	2015-05-05-14-00-07	-2236.1
    OPTION	2015-05-05-11-44-30	-7726.8
    OPTION	2015-05-06-12-12-24	-22510.1
    OPTION	2015-05-05-12-03-51	6257
    STOCK	2015-05-05-15-33-54	-42.9
    OPTION	2015-05-06-15-26-34	4876.1
    STOCK	2015-05-06-15-18-25	2316.4
    OPTION	2015-05-07-10-47-31	-1300.1
    OPTION	2015-05-06-10-59-40	-95.8
    OPTION	2015-05-06-15-49-08	1737.8
    OPTION	2015-05-06-12-10-24	-10516.7
    STOCK	2015-05-07-10-45-54	-229.7
    STOCK	2015-05-07-10-22-52	-4333.3
    OPTION	2015-05-07-10-02-09	-16205.9
    OPTION	2015-05-07-09-48-26	-13045.8
    OPTION	2015-05-07-10-44-54	-1534.8
    OPTION	2015-05-07-11-11-33	-9691.9
    STOCK	2015-05-07-15-50-40	-6117
    STOCK	2015-05-08-09-47-46	-4100.5
    STOCK	2015-05-08-15-30-18	-6365
    STOCK	2015-05-08-11-50-52	1269.2
    STOCK	2015-05-11-09-53-37	4792.4
    OPTION	2015-05-11-09-35-42	-149.7
    STOCK	2015-05-12-10-03-55	3580.7
    STOCK	2015-05-12-11-10-57	2573.9
    OPTION	2015-05-12-15-46-34	23909.5
    OPTION	2015-05-12-12-00-13	-4418.3
    OPTION	2015-05-13-15-51-30	-2599
    STOCK	2015-05-13-15-55-18	-345
    STOCK	2015-05-13-15-55-17	-1482.5
    STOCK	2015-05-14-10-43-23	8456.1
    STOCK	2015-05-14-10-08-28	-1546.5
    OPTION	2015-05-15-10-28-51	1181
    OPTION	2015-05-15-15-37-43	20785.6
    OPTION	2015-05-15-09-58-42	-9707
    OPTION	2015-05-15-15-35-21	6246.2
    STOCK	2015-05-18-10-22-07	17133.3
    OPTION	2015-05-18-15-06-05	-10156.7
    OPTION	2015-05-18-10-34-04	2917.9
    OPTION	2015-05-18-15-03-59	-21647.3
    OPTION	2015-05-18-15-14-13	-5485.3
    OPTION	2015-05-19-09-31-16	-1726.8
    STOCK	2015-05-19-09-36-35	-296.6
    OPTION	2015-05-19-15-53-00	4326.5
    OPTION	2015-05-21-09-31-05	-13581.7
    STOCK	2015-05-19-15-51-22	7492.5
    STOCK	2015-05-19-15-45-35	6293.3
    STOCK	2015-05-19-15-49-17	-1116.8
    STOCK	2015-05-21-15-55-17	754.3
    STOCK	2015-05-20-13-46-32	1423.5
    OPTION	2015-05-21-12-06-05	-3018.4
    OPTION	2015-05-21-12-03-20	574.7
    OPTION	2015-05-21-15-22-18	3245
    STOCK	2015-05-22-15-51-47	6266.2
    OPTION	2015-05-22-13-26-45	-7590.9
    OPTION	2015-05-22-15-51-13	7632.8
    STOCK	2015-05-26-10-40-00	2784.7
    OPTION	2015-05-26-09-35-17	-1149.6
    STOCK	2015-05-26-15-55-17	-3230
    STOCK	2015-05-27-09-32-29	160.9
    STOCK	2015-05-27-11-39-47	-13705.5
    STOCK	2015-05-27-10-32-41	946.9
    STOCK	2015-05-27-15-55-15	-1640.6
    STOCK	2015-05-28-09-49-51	8106.9
    OPTION	2015-05-28-10-57-59	-8752.5
    STOCK	2015-05-28-09-52-40	6261
    STOCK	2015-05-29-14-22-59	-2957
    STOCK	2015-05-29-15-44-14	2376.9
    OPTION	2015-05-29-12-30-49	14214.9
  230. Adding the last 2 months' results to this (+17K) you have made 33K in 7 months. Calculated by your account size, you are making 2-3% monthly...

    And before someone asks why am I accounting from November, because as you mentioned, that is when the roller coaster started...
  231. Wow, this journal went downhill fast. With the weekly updates, there was a buzz and excitement about the ups and downs, now with the monthly updates, lot of people lost patience and interest.
  232. Wow, you never say anything useful, except the blind cheering.

    Anyhow, since I like to compare apples to apples, Neke's performance in the last 6 months is equivalent to a small account trader trading a 10K account and making 6 ES points PER MONTH (inc. com.). That is $250 or 2.5% monthly.
  233. I like it that way. Check out those weeks with lots of participation - down maybe 20-50% for the week. I must be doing something right now!
  234. Period Update for June (5/31/2015 - 7/4/2015) (5 weeks)

    Frustrating month, up 1.6K (0.5%).

    Made good gains first couple of weeks, and was getting ready to celebrate a break-out. It was not to be. Lost the gains in the next several weeks. The range trading continues. I have attached my P/L cumulative since Jan 2013. It's proving harder than expected to resume the uptrend. On the positive side, the hitherto worst performing strategy this year (OPN-FCR) has reversed course and delivered good gains the past couple of months. Negative side, that is more than compensated by the plunge in the best-performing strategy till April (OPN-OPM). The once best-performing stock strategy also took a battering this month.

    Opening Balance:                	331,669
    Net gain for period 		          1,647
    Cash Withdrawal				 (7,500)
    Net Balance:                   		325,816
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 7/4/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	                97,717 (Up 38%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (28,000)
    Net Balance			       325,816
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2015-06-01-11-13-49	850.2
    OPTION	2015-06-01-13-45-02	8787.6
    OPTION	2015-06-02-11-15-09	16568.8
    STOCK	2015-06-02-15-54-20	7765.4
    STOCK	2015-06-02-15-55-18	-2816.4
    STOCK	2015-06-03-12-12-19	3482
    STOCK	2015-06-03-09-34-32	-1003.7
    OPTION	2015-06-03-09-38-52	-6831.9
    STOCK	2015-06-03-15-49-30	-3636.1
    STOCK	2015-06-03-15-55-20	478.4
    OPTION	2015-06-03-15-29-49	4950.5
    STOCK	2015-06-04-14-38-38	3009.1
    STOCK	2015-06-04-15-17-35	-2981.1
    OPTION	2015-06-04-15-15-44	-11375.7
    OPTION	2015-06-04-13-34-43	32112.8
    STOCK	2015-06-04-15-16-24	-4937.1
    STOCK	2015-06-05-15-49-13	-1454.5
    OPTION	2015-06-08-11-22-37	5453.8
    OPTION	2015-06-09-14-24-59	22934.5
    STOCK	2015-06-08-15-49-11	734.8
    STOCK	2015-06-08-15-55-12	-1299.4
    STOCK	2015-06-08-15-55-11	-4271.5
    OPTION	2015-06-08-15-31-01	-4719.1
    OPTION	2015-06-09-15-56-06	3741.9
    STOCK	2015-06-09-15-55-18	-5532.1
    STOCK	2015-06-09-15-55-20	-613.5
    OPTION	2015-06-15-10-32-42	-492.4
    OPTION	2015-06-15-14-28-14	-4841.4
    STOCK	2015-06-16-15-55-09	-10270.5
    OPTION	2015-06-16-09-31-43	63.1
    OPTION	2015-06-16-15-34-22	10308.9
    OPTION	2015-06-17-13-43-25	-6522.6
    OPTION	2015-06-17-14-00-28	-5285.5
    STOCK	2015-06-17-16-24-58	401.4
    STOCK	2015-06-17-17-09-40	1296.4
    STOCK	2015-06-18-11-14-36	2228.9
    STOCK	2015-06-18-13-43-34	1978.6
    OPTION	2015-06-18-15-20-26	-4634.6
    STOCK	2015-06-18-15-55-16	-392.4
    STOCK	2015-06-19-12-08-13	-6917.3
    OPTION	2015-06-19-10-13-30	-13454.3
    STOCK	2015-06-22-10-56-52	2475.7
    STOCK	2015-06-22-11-03-09	477.2
    OPTION	2015-06-22-12-08-55	-2043
    STOCK	2015-06-23-10-05-14	522.9
    STOCK	2015-06-23-15-01-04	-13623.6
    STOCK	2015-06-24-12-09-58	3025.1
    OPTION	2015-06-24-15-43-55	-1715.5
    STOCK	2015-06-24-15-49-15	20.3
    OPTION	2015-06-24-15-20-07	-8156.5
    STOCK	2015-06-25-12-08-34	996.8
    STOCK	2015-06-26-10-41-21	8952.7
    OPTION	2015-06-26-10-37-12	8108.1
    STOCK	2015-06-26-10-33-30	4150.4
    OPTION	2015-06-26-15-10-23	5879.1
    STOCK	2015-06-26-15-15-36	-611.8
    OPTION	2015-06-26-15-42-32	-29869.5
    STOCK	2015-06-26-15-16-33	-633.2
    STOCK	2015-06-26-15-45-00	-147.3
    STOCK	2015-06-26-15-45-00	-1810.6
    STOCK	2015-06-29-16-04-12	6334.9
    STOCK	2015-06-30-15-49-24	-10946.1
    STOCK	2015-06-30-15-49-42	-9585.5
    OPTION	2015-06-30-15-14-41	7796
    STOCK	2015-07-01-13-59-24	25079.3
    STOCK	2015-07-01-15-55-17	-4867.1
    OPTION	2015-07-02-09-53-28	-11152.9
    STOCK	2015-07-02-16-09-34	113.5
    ejourncumm.png ejournmthly.png
  235. I can't thank you enough for your honesty. It is very rare and very informative... It might seem my posts criticize you a lot, but I try to do it with an intention of helping you with my analyses. Sometimes it is nice to have a second look by an independent observer. That being said, here is an interesting observation about your longer term P/L trends:

    Looks like you have had long periods (about 4-6 months) of not making any money, then the next 2-3 months you made a decent gain just to go back to the next 5-6 months of no profits.

    Since 2013, I counted 4 periods of drought, and 3 periods of profit burst, the last 2 of them were significant.* Now your sample size of 2.5 years might be too small to draw any conclusions, nevertheless it is interesting. The last 7 months saw increased volatility, but overall still flat performance. If I didn't know I would say I am looking at a stock chart, that is violently consolidating right now before further upmove...

    Well, if your profitability trend keeps continuing, the next 2-3 months should be nicely profitable... Good luck and thanks again...

    *Just to be pedantic:

    1. 4 months drought, then making 50K
    2. 5 months drought then making 80K
    3. 5 months drought, then making 200K
    4. 7 months flat and >>>> ????
  236. No, neke's posts are not informative, they are entertaining. Two very different things, and unfortunately, much less entertaining than in the past when he had weekly updates. Its almost like looking at last month's box scores, much less entertaining and interesting than looking at yesterday's box scores.

    How do you take 7 periods, according to you, over two years and consider that as a big enough sample size to predict what he will make over the next few months? It is this kind of micromanaging of useless info that get traders in trouble and a false sense of security and believing the past will repeat again in the future.

    The trading game is about risk management and edge, not about picking out useless stats from past performance as a crutch or belief that they will repeat in the future. In the future, the market can be Better OR Worse than now, we don't know. All we can do is rely on Edge and Proper risk management.
  237. I specially mentioned that it might not be a big enough sample size, so your post as usual, was worthless. I also tried to be upbeat about his performance, predicting positive future profits. I thought you were in the same boat, with the mindless cheering...

    But to be more relevant and useful, so let's do more stats. Neke made 11K per month on average (with a varying account size), with a lately very volatile record. To make it comparable to a small account trader, his performance is like a 5K account holder (let's say intraday ES trader) making $275 per month, or 1.5 ES points per week. (based on Neke's 200K average account)
  238. You are up 48%. You are not Madoff with a smooth equity curve, but you making real money.
  239. Account reset... Trying times
  240. Withdrawal (hopefully).. ?
  241. It looks like a loss.... Where is MarketOwl when we need him?
  242. Neke I been following for years and really like the way you trade. But You always kill it in down markets. Slow grinding up trends get you you . As soon as S&P drops 10% you will provide an update showing you made 400k in profits.
  243. This is exactly what Neke needs, a good analysis of his trades. Maybe Jajuanm is right and he shouldn't trade in uptrending markets.

    My favorite example is Don Miller, who showed that on average, his worst days were Mondays and he could have made like 20% or so MORE just by NOT TRADING on Mondays. Not to mention getting an extra day off. Sometimes the solution is that simple...

    So Neke, you should let someone take a hard look at your trades with an objective eye and figure out what has been going wrong in the last 8 months....
  244. Day of week analysis is mostly useless. One year the worst day is monday, then tuesday and so forth - it's not consistent. Even the most faithful who've analyzed this effect to pieces have eventually given up on it.

    Neke's style is big gains and big drawdowns, always has and seemingly always will be. You really can't have that many 40-50% up months without taking on significant risk and the drawdowns that come with it, unless you're some big outfit that's diversified into 300 strategies.
  245. Depends on the trader, but that was just an example. I think Jaju was into something, although he was incorrect in his analysis. It isn't the slowly uptrending market that kills Neke's profits but the sideways consolidation.

    Let's put the market's and Neke's performance charts next to each other. What do you see? Is there a correlation?

    Neke's volatile performance that pretty much didn't go nowhere started back in last November. That is also when the market started to go sideways. And they have been the same since then.

    The same with the 2013 Jan-Maj timeframe, specially the Nasdaq, didn't go anywhere, neither did Neke make money. Again, 2014 Febr-June, both performances are flat...

    Anyhow, I am just trying to help. Obviously something hasn't been working, the tricky part is finding what is it.
  246. There is nothing wrong, such swings are consistent with the size neke is trading. If he can make 33% in a month then losing it in another shouldn't surprise anyone.

    Imo one is bound to blow up sooner or later trading with such high leverage, an abnormally long streak of losers is all it takes to destroy your account.
  247. It's not so much an analysis that is required. Coming up with more rules wouldn't help if you cant keep them. How could a 2% adverse move on a couple of stocks result in a 33% plunge to my account if not for throwing all rules out the window - on a day my system didn't work (internet connectivity) and I had the freedom to hang myself.
  248. Long time ago I advised that you hire someone and only put through trades if it is OKed by him.

    Or even better, he would execute the trades and making sure the rules are followed. Also helps if you have connectivity issues, 2 places to execute trades from...

    But anyway, it looks like you know what the problem is, just can't solve it.... At this point if I were you I would go to C2, pick 3-5 systems, spread my money among them equally and let them do the trading for you...
  249. Neke, I have followed your threads for a few years and have usually remained as a lurker but seeing this really brings heartache to me. I am trying to figure out my trading as well and knowing that you're successful tells me that it's possible. I have a good paying job but my passion is trading. Seeing that you're account is down 37% or so on a few stocks that is really scary. Obviously, you know yourself best but these swings looks so detrimental. Do you even use stop losses, like a hard stop? Best of wishes to you. I'll continue to lurk now.
  250. I like Pekelo's idea of hiring a trader. There are dozen's of young guys on this site that would love an oportunity like that. Pay him a percentage of profits quarterly.
    Or what I was thinking: Do you like the action, the buzz of trading? Open a small trading account and use that to gamble , and use your main account to only make systematic, disciplined trades.
    Or go to a casino every saturday, take $500 and martingale.
    Good luck.
  251. Period Update for July (7/4/2015 - 8/1/2015) (4 weeks)

    No comments. The wounds are still raw.

    Opening Balance:                	325,816
    Net loss for period 		        (88,234)
    Net Balance:                   		237,582
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 7/4/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	                 9,483 (Up 4%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (28,000)
    Net Balance			       237,582
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2015-07-06-12-28-49	-6322.2
    STOCK	2015-07-07-15-28-17	545.6
    STOCK	2015-07-07-15-50-01	9653.7
    STOCK	2015-07-07-15-25-33	9482
    OPTION	2015-07-07-10-03-07	-1132
    OPTION	2015-07-07-13-15-42	-6041.2
    STOCK	2015-07-08-15-45-45	-4244.3
    OPTION	2015-07-08-11-32-27	7140.2
    STOCK	2015-07-08-14-57-37	4101.6
    STOCK	2015-07-08-15-00-31	7745.8
    STOCK	2015-07-08-14-27-55	4606.8
    STOCK	2015-07-08-14-57-20	91.8
    OPTION	2015-07-08-09-43-29	-5945.9
    OPTION	2015-07-08-15-29-51	6167.8
    OPTION	2015-07-08-15-31-17	-7323.1
    OPTION	2015-07-08-14-56-58	-868.6
    OPTION	2015-07-09-10-23-16	-5041.4
    OPTION	2015-07-09-12-15-45	-37582
    STOCK	2015-07-09-14-14-25	276.5
    STOCK	2015-07-10-12-31-41	105.2
    OPTION	2015-07-10-10-24-48	2945
    OPTION	2015-07-10-11-50-20	5436.1
    STOCK	2015-07-10-11-26-09	160.7
    STOCK	2015-07-10-09-46-44	1963.1
    OPTION	2015-07-10-15-40-38	7737.8
    STOCK	2015-07-13-14-19-19	3634.7
    STOCK	2015-07-13-11-53-06	-11417.3
    OPTION	2015-07-13-15-27-34	2080.2
    STOCK	2015-07-13-11-59-04	2733.1
    OPTION	2015-07-13-11-50-08	-308.5
    STOCK	2015-07-13-15-02-36	817.7
    OPTION	2015-07-14-09-49-06	-5746.1
    STOCK	2015-07-15-10-23-21	-13358.4
    OPTION	2015-07-15-15-52-58	5791
    STOCK	2015-07-15-10-55-03	1413
    STOCK	2015-07-15-14-12-30	1433.3
    OPTION	2015-07-16-10-42-41	-9204.4
    STOCK	2015-07-16-11-05-33	1180.5
    STOCK	2015-07-16-15-55-12	2584.6
    OPTION	2015-07-16-12-56-50	3615.4
    OPTION	2015-07-16-11-03-52	14799.6
    STOCK	2015-07-17-10-47-08	1763.4
    OPTION	2015-07-17-15-49-44	32359.3
    OPTION	2015-07-17-15-37-23	12442.3
    OPTION	2015-07-17-09-38-14	-254.8
    OPTION	2015-07-17-13-40-23	-5550.5
    STOCK	2015-07-17-10-44-23	-4256
    OPTION	2015-07-20-14-51-42	-8277.8
    STOCK	2015-07-20-09-47-06	472.7
    OPTION	2015-07-20-11-33-00	1454.9
    OPTION	2015-07-20-14-58-43	-71860.4
    OPTION	2015-07-20-14-52-01	-23762.1
    OPTION	2015-07-20-14-56-17	-31369.7
    OPTION	2015-07-21-15-58-03	6849.2
    STOCK	2015-07-21-15-36-45	1104.5
    OPTION	2015-07-21-15-53-16	909
    STOCK	2015-07-22-11-23-46	-2903.2
    STOCK	2015-07-22-10-19-20	-2866.2
    OPTION	2015-07-22-11-07-21	-15349.5
    OPTION	2015-07-22-10-14-25	-6149.5
    STOCK	2015-07-22-15-55-14	-292.5
    STOCK	2015-07-23-10-20-47	1726.7
    STOCK	2015-07-24-10-11-53	1460.6
    OPTION	2015-07-24-11-05-37	-329.6
    OPTION	2015-07-24-10-11-36	-12107.1
    STOCK	2015-07-24-15-49-09	-223.9
    OPTION	2015-07-24-14-30-30	13897.9
    STOCK	2015-07-24-15-52-56	-1982.6
    STOCK	2015-07-24-15-49-08	-570.8
    STOCK	2015-07-24-15-49-06	-2033.3
    STOCK	2015-07-27-12-22-51	-2557.5
    OPTION	2015-07-27-13-37-05	1935.1
    STOCK	2015-07-27-15-49-08	3380.7
    STOCK	2015-07-27-15-49-11	973.3
    STOCK	2015-07-27-15-55-21	6073.7
    STOCK	2015-07-27-15-49-08	2334
    STOCK	2015-07-27-15-49-10	384.4
    OPTION	2015-07-27-14-45-31	-486.3
    OPTION	2015-07-28-15-37-01	-8430.3
    STOCK	2015-07-28-15-49-15	3134.2
    OPTION	2015-07-28-15-52-40	8953.8
    STOCK	2015-07-28-15-49-24	2140.3
    STOCK	2015-07-29-09-34-35	16090.9
    OPTION	2015-07-29-10-17-22	1101.7
    STOCK	2015-07-29-12-06-41	-16.2
    STOCK	2015-07-29-15-49-29	-296.6
    STOCK	2015-07-30-16-19-55	-5155.6
    STOCK	2015-07-30-18-50-19	5267.1
    OPTION	2015-07-31-11-35-16	-629.4
    STOCK	2015-07-31-15-34-22	-447.3
  252. Looks like typical revenge trading behavior. You had a good start to the month, gave it back on a chunky loss, and then started taking too many trades to try to come back from your loss. Leading to more losses on coin flip trades, and then full tilt trading later in the month.

    I've been there. It is hell, as it takes a lot longer to gain it back then it does to lose it. But you've got to get back to being patient and waiting for the right setups and use proper risk management. You don't make it all back in one day, or one week, it will take some time, but it seems you have an edge, so I am sure you will be back on top within a few months.
  253. For you to leave a losing position dwell to more than -70k, I'm assuming you're trading mean reversion. Mean reversion works well most of the time but you have to pay up once in a while. It's part of the game.
  254. One possible thing to do is to review for as far as you can , from your journals, every situations where you revenge traded - specifically the first time it occured. And to try to find why you repeat the pattern and what "benefitS" you are getting out of it.
  255. I've only read a few pages back but OMG,
    A couple thoughts:

    It's been a long time since I've seen Don Miller mentioned. A nice guy, he called me once, gratis. I was at the end of my rope...

    Reviewing what looks like a list of trades comes across as being way too volatile, regardless of style of trader.

    Too many options.

    Is this a great home run hitter that needs to get more selective of pitches to swing at?

    Does this trader reflect on losing enough to learn from it?
  256. Let's remember that Neke is one of the extremely rare trader who actually lives comfortably from his trading , and that also puts here for all to see all his trading as it is : the wins, the losses, the high, the lows.
    The problem I now understand is one can only suggest to someone a way to find a solution, even if it seems to be obvious what psychological ( here I'd say "spiritual issue") is manifesting itself.
  257. Last I remember he had a well paying full-time job that's not trading related.
  258. "Most of the time" has to be taken into context. If the play is a mean reversion one, than it means that the item is "over-bought/sold". Most times, there is a reason for this unusual and extended price and that reason can become even more compelling "most of the time".

    Averaging down/up, most times plays against this compelling reason and the logical way to get out okay with averaging is by pyramiding the additions. However, if one is stuck on the wrong side, and they realize it, it becomes difficult to put in bigger conviction (displayed by putting on bigger size) against ones ideology.

    Sometimes it works (and you have to be good at this type of thing), but most times it's going to be a red trade.

    Regardless of the result, a lot of time and energy is consumed here that statistically it is not worth it.

    And when you do, the numbers quickly cancel out all the times that the "strategy" "worked".
  259. There should come a time when even the biggest noob on planet has to admit defeat.
    Preferably before he runs outa money.
  260. First of all I really admire you for continuing to write the best journal on the website and for having big cojones to keep posting your performance regardless of what the market throws at you.

    I am a better than average trader in the sense that I have been trading for 8 years (selling option spreads on the SP500 futures ) and have had from a flat to modestly positive performance. I have been following all your journals for many years. I have no idea how you can possibly go through such rollercoasters. Obviously everyone has his own way to trade, but if I had to go trough the kind of gains and losses you have I would be emotionally and financially drained. Let's forget the financial aspect hoping that before the end of they year you can make some gains again. Let's stay with the mental/psychological part. How can you possibly see yourself trading AND keep your cool, be always in control for many years to come with such ups and downs ?

    Just for the records this year I am up 10% and losing money is part of my job. My goal is about 1% each month, but you were up 58% by the end of February !!! Who makes 30% each month, isn't that something unusual and very special ?!

    Last thing I want to do is to twist the knife into the wounds, we have all been there yet YOU ARE STILL TRADING while the vast majority of people isn't. The market messed up their head and bank account. There are people who used to make $100s or $1000s in 1 day but after losing it all had to stop trading. Now they work for $20 x hour and have hard time doing it.

    If I have a month where instead of making/ losing 1%- 2% I make 10% the very first thing I would do is to take a little time off. Not to be lazy per se but to let it sink in, to pause a little before going back. Making a lot of money and making it fast it is not normal ( your 58% ). We have to find what suits us best to maintain some sanity so that we can continue and hopefully make money for the long run while trading -one the most ferocious environments to make a living.

    You have been in this game long enough and you know what is best for you, but in my humble opinion after losing almost all your gains some time off would help you. In 2008 I took time off when the very same thing happened to me. To survive I had to come back psychologically sound. I am still trading.

    Good Luck,

  261. Thanks. Seems volatility of account is part of my game - although it does not have to be as violent as it has been recently. This month up big so far - unfortunately won't be able to trade next 10-12 days as I am on vacation: counting my lost earnings :)
  262. Just coming back from vacation and saw the volatility I missed (SPY plunging 12% over the period before rebounding). Can't be certain what would have happened, but I believe it should have been positive for my account.
  263. Period Update for August (8/1/2015 - 9/5/2015) (5 weeks)

    Monstrous month, up 254K (107%). The memories of last month quite forgotten.

    After last months disaster (7/20/2015), and some initial flat lining, began a steady climb that carried into August and lasted all month. Yes I used leverage, and yes I averaged down - it is not really the averaging down that was the problem: it was the recklessness of the averaging.

    The early uptick in volatility after the China devaluation was the catalyst for some early gains for the month. Unfortunately was away on vacation for nearly two weeks of the month when the monster volatility happened - I can only imagine what could have happened.

    Took out 17K for the months of July/Aug.

    Opening Balance:                	237,582
    Net gain for period 		        253,863
    Cash Withdrawal				(17,000)
    Net Balance:                   		474,445
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 9/5/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	               263,346 (Up 103%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (55,000)
    Net Balance			       474,445
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    OPTION	2015-08-03-11-27-25	10092.1
    STOCK	2015-08-03-10-31-35	784.5
    STOCK	2015-08-03-15-50-44	-524.5
    STOCK	2015-08-03-15-55-14	-966.4
    STOCK	2015-08-04-10-05-31	23136.6
    STOCK	2015-08-04-10-01-13	3327.5
    STOCK	2015-08-04-10-21-54	-2145.9
    OPTION	2015-08-04-15-58-08	-13297.3
    STOCK	2015-08-04-15-07-24	-799.7
    OPTION	2015-08-04-12-07-13	5680.6
    STOCK	2015-08-04-15-49-11	10.4
    STOCK	2015-08-04-15-49-10	2305.8
    STOCK	2015-08-05-11-08-14	5100.8
    STOCK	2015-08-05-09-57-52	2407.1
    OPTION	2015-08-05-11-14-48	11612.6
    OPTION	2015-08-05-11-07-46	-6068.7
    STOCK	2015-08-06-10-15-41	2143.6
    STOCK	2015-08-06-10-45-18	1532
    OPTION	2015-08-06-11-35-37	32122.5
    OPTION	2015-08-06-15-59-47	-1788.3
    STOCK	2015-08-07-12-02-37	1086.7
    STOCK	2015-08-07-12-43-10	2668.1
    STOCK	2015-08-10-15-50-15	1311.3
    OPTION	2015-08-10-15-51-48	8849.4
    OPTION	2015-08-12-15-13-03	6521.6
    OPTION	2015-08-11-09-54-56	290
    STOCK	2015-08-12-12-41-34	849.3
    OPTION	2015-08-12-15-39-30	16088.7
    OPTION	2015-08-12-13-44-08	2952.4
    STOCK	2015-08-12-09-52-31	-939.6
    OPTION	2015-08-12-12-41-19	22339.6
    OPTION	2015-08-13-11-37-48	-45783.5
    OPTION	2015-08-12-14-48-16	2848.9
    OPTION	2015-08-12-15-26-12	21297.8
    STOCK	2015-08-13-10-06-47	33.8
    STOCK	2015-08-14-10-57-00	184.8
    STOCK	2015-08-14-14-40-14	2855.3
    STOCK	2015-08-14-15-51-59	-1416.5
    STOCK	2015-08-17-12-08-17	5115
    STOCK	2015-08-17-11-20-20	1698.5
    STOCK	2015-08-17-15-49-54	6315
    OPTION	2015-08-17-11-34-43	9104.2
    STOCK	2015-08-17-11-22-54	1641.1
    OPTION	2015-08-17-12-04-19	-5087.3
    STOCK	2015-08-18-14-29-46	17462.4
    OPTION	2015-08-18-10-52-06	4078.3
    OPTION	2015-08-18-11-55-36	29041.1
    OPTION	2015-08-18-10-34-29	1642.1
    OPTION	2015-09-01-15-39-40	48544.6
    STOCK	2015-09-02-13-41-46	9822.8
    OPTION	2015-09-02-15-20-15	7934.4
    STOCK	2015-09-03-15-55-15	-4758
    OPTION	2015-09-03-09-32-43	-1596.4
    STOCK	2015-09-03-14-46-50	5198.1
    STOCK	2015-09-03-15-55-14	-17996.3
    STOCK	2015-09-04-10-17-26	11335.2
    OPTION	2015-09-04-10-50-49	-6151
    OPTION	2015-09-04-10-52-22	-2469.7
    OPTION	2015-09-04-10-52-58	16279.9
  264. Holy crap you have balls of steel. Well done neke. I for one am rooting for you man. Keep it going. I know you are going to have up and down months ( and so do you I'm sure), but your ability to keep rising from the canvas is admirable.
  265. Like I said before. Keep up the good work, Neke.
  266. Hate the market
  267. Would you mind telling us about your health? How is the stress effecting you? Ulcer, high BP, depression,etc? How is your sleep?
  268. Don't know what you're talking about.
  269. Even with the drawdown, he is up huge over the past two months. Why would he be depressed?
  270. Large equity swings generate stress, at least for me they do.
  271. Stress and depression are two very different things. I receive stress from trading but am not depressed.
  272. Well, I am glad the swings don't effect your health. Although I recall you mentioning earlier that it is hard to bear, so I am surprised you don't understand my inquiry...

    Back in April you said:

    But if you can sleep fine, then all is well....

  273. See in the down market Neke is back killing it!!!!
  274. depending on which side of the P and L, swings cause both euphoria and dysphoria. i have a hard time believing that it does not effect neke in some way based on his P and L posts...if he is completely immune then i want some of what he is taking!
  275. In my last post I suggested Neke to take a break before he made 100%. Did he relax for some time after having had such a great month ? If he did not in my modest opinion he has some growing up to do ( we all do ) but there is a moment when you pause and enjoy your winnings.
  276. Actually he has just lost 93K. Don't you pay attention? Post #266

    Now a quick calculation shows that since last November (when the swings started) he is still up 115K, so averaging 10.5K per month. That is about 3-4% monthly return based on a 250K+ account....
  277. Period Update for September (9/5/2015 - 10/2/2015) (4 weeks)

    Awful month, down 172K (36%). Hard to explain what happened. I guess live by the sword, die by the same.

    The first wave of losses was 10/11th of Sep for a total loss of 111K as I grew overconfident following last month's result, and veered into forbidden areas and strategies with leverage. Just when I thought I got that behind me, came this Monday (28th) whose 94K is already posted - recklessly overexposed on an ugly market day. The final wave is today (lost 56K) as I grew desperate to rescue something from the month - ended up with bigger losses.

    Need time to reflect - big changes definitely coming in my trading rules / system checks.

    Opening Balance:                	474,445
    Net loss for period 		       (171,938)
    Net Balance:                   		302,507
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 10/2/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	                91,408 (Up 35%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (45,000)
    Net Balance			       302,507
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    OPTION	2015-09-08-13-47-10	-1976.5
    STOCK	2015-09-08-15-48-54	4825.5
    STOCK	2015-09-10-11-15-54	-956.7
    STOCK	2015-09-10-15-43-17	-31396.7
    OPTION	2015-09-10-15-41-38	-29628.8
    STOCK	2015-09-11-10-27-58	-9773.3
    STOCK	2015-09-11-14-01-59	4848.8
    STOCK	2015-09-11-13-05-25	-16368.1
    STOCK	2015-09-11-15-01-50	-26005.4
    STOCK	2015-09-11-15-58-55	-1910.2
    STOCK	2015-09-14-10-43-14	1639.8
    STOCK	2015-09-16-10-55-34	3041.2
    STOCK	2015-09-16-10-52-55	2482.6
    STOCK	2015-09-17-15-19-14	1985
    OPTION	2015-09-18-11-50-30	-8845.2
    OPTION	2015-09-18-09-42-08	-1950.9
    STOCK	2015-09-18-12-22-51	2571.3
    OPTION	2015-09-21-12-52-13	6297.9
    OPTION	2015-09-21-12-52-37	16559.7
    STOCK	2015-09-22-15-52-30	-1719.8
    STOCK	2015-09-22-13-59-31	11768.9
    STOCK	2015-09-22-15-51-06	-9869.3
    STOCK	2015-09-22-15-55-15	-1563.2
    STOCK	2015-09-22-15-55-16	-811.4
    STOCK	2015-09-22-15-52-01	5278.5
    STOCK	2015-09-23-12-16-34	-4907.8
    STOCK	2015-09-23-15-42-01	-10630.7
    STOCK	2015-09-23-15-42-29	-3966.9
    STOCK	2015-09-23-15-42-55	-1309.2
    STOCK	2015-09-23-15-48-44	-6638
    OPTION	2015-09-23-12-10-00	49
    OPTION	2015-09-24-14-48-38	21804.8
    STOCK	2015-09-24-14-49-50	8077.6
    OPTION	2015-09-24-14-40-18	18816
    OPTION	2015-09-24-14-24-32	14711.8
    OPTION	2015-09-25-13-49-17	22914.5
    STOCK	2015-09-25-15-49-07	-715
    STOCK	2015-09-25-15-55-13	-7851.7
    STOCK	2015-09-25-15-19-08	3199.3
    STOCK	2015-09-25-15-49-08	-774.8
    STOCK	2015-09-25-15-58-13	-7463.1
    STOCK	2015-09-28-15-44-54	1089.2
    STOCK	2015-09-28-15-45-26	-4972.6
    OPTION	2015-09-28-15-46-11	3389.8
    STOCK	2015-09-28-15-44-42	-5778.5
    STOCK	2015-09-28-15-01-04	-12541.4
    STOCK	2015-09-28-15-45-09	-9811.3
    OPTION	2015-09-28-15-48-01	-8923.6
    OPTION	2015-09-28-15-46-39	-13534.7
    OPTION	2015-09-28-15-46-58	-10178.7
    OPTION	2015-09-28-15-31-05	-26214.6
    OPTION	2015-09-28-15-48-55	-6605.1
    OPTION	2015-09-29-12-17-32	2044.8
    STOCK	2015-09-29-12-11-24	4635
    OPTION	2015-09-29-14-58-51	1342
    STOCK	2015-09-29-15-20-15	-785.4
    OPTION	2015-09-29-14-51-41	5741.8
    STOCK	2015-09-30-15-52-44	-14277.1
    STOCK	2015-09-30-15-55-19	644
    STOCK	2015-10-01-11-51-51	10674.5
    STOCK	2015-10-01-15-20-37	4359.9
    OPTION	2015-10-02-11-00-13	-25688.6
    OPTION	2015-10-02-11-17-18	-18287.9
    OPTION	2015-10-02-13-37-47	9902.9
    OPTION	2015-10-02-15-26-48	-22007
  278. Weekly Trades.png
    You simply have to learn to manage your sizing.

    Weekly Trades.png
  279. You definitely have some gamble in your trading. Ed Seykota says everyone gets what they want from trading. Seems like you want excitement more than maximizing account growth. And maximizing account growth happens by avoiding excess volatility in the account.

    A $100,000 account that gains 30% in a month and loses 30% the next month eventually goes towards zero. 100,000 -> 130,000 -> 91,000 -> 118,000 -> 83,000 -> 108,000 -> 76,000 -> 99,000 -> 69,000 -> 90,000 -> 63,000 ..........

  280. 12db_3921.png The way to test any system is to reduce size, so that if you are wrong you don't lose a lot .. If your system works while testing then you can increase size on a weekly basis. In any case I follow a bunch of traders on Twitter and I have learnt a lot..
    Reduce Size and Cut Losses Quick.. You can still make a lot of money trading small. The screenshot below if for 1 week and it is from Swatoptions.com

    You can see from their style that they trade very small and so losses are small too and they are consistent..
  281. Stop hijacking his thread to promote some shtty site
  282. Lolzzzz...I follow them on twitter along with a bunch of other traders just like I follow Neke. At least I have given him some construction criticism. This is what I have seen that works, I bet you don't make a dime trading. You don't have a winners attitude. Good luck though :)
  283. You could have given your constructive criticism without linking or mentioning the site like many others before you have. Also, why does it matter to you whether I make or lose money? Let me worry about that. I don't get it.
  284. I don't post regularly on this site, we are all here to learn. I learnt a lot from Neke and this is how I got into options, by watching his trades when he used to post more details. You take what you want from the posts and disregard the rest.
  285. Neke,

    You just keep doing your thing, and swing for the fences. Sure, you pressed on the accelerator after you had a great month, and it didn't work out as expected. But it is this kind of risk taking that is going to make you jump to the next level.
  286. Risk TAKING takes you down; risk MANAGEMENT takes you up.
  287. Hmmm? How can you manage a risk you didn't take? Was it forced on you?
  288. @neke what I meant was taking risk by itself, without the management part of it, is a losing proposition.
  289. So you're talking about buy and hold, or what?
  290. @d08 managing risk is a paramount feature that pertains to all time frames.
  291. Don't want to hijack the thread so this will be my last reply.

    What you're saying is incredibly general and meaningless. You don't know how he manages risk. Any kind of timing of exits is managing risk, therefore by default he is managing risk.

    I'll just add "the key to making money is being smart". Did this help anyone?
  292. It's all quite very simple to see that risk was not managed optimally by the bolded area below from Neke's post.

    "Awful month, down 172K (36%). Hard to explain what happened. I guess live by the sword, die by the same."

    The first wave of losses was 10/11th of Sep for a total loss of 111K as I grew overconfident following last month's result, and veered into forbidden areas and strategies with leverage. Just when I thought I got that behind me, came this Monday (28th) whose 94K is already posted - recklessly overexposed on an ugly market day. The final wave is today (lost 56K) as I grew desperate to rescue something from the month - ended up with bigger losses."

    @d08 if this does not clarify that discipline was lacking and therefore management was not optimal, I don't know how to make it any clearer and we best let it rest out of respect for retaining the integrity of @neke s thread.

    Pls note, my earlier post was not to put Neke down. I have great respect for him as I personally don't have the balls to put risk down like he does and kudos to him for that. However, the facts have to be pointed out where necessary, if for nothing, than at least to give Neke an outside voice. Sometimes we all know it too well, but need that outside voice to bring in the actual realization.
  293. Neke,

    your position sizing method seems to be way too aggresive. I understand the temptation there, we want to make big money so we risk big. The problem is that its mathematically proven that its a flawed way to trade/bet


    If you look at this chart you will notice that betting 1.5 times the recommended Kelly size for a single bet/trade actually DECREASES returns and increases volatility (which makes life mentally difficult). At 2.0 times the kelly the returns goes NEGATIVE (and vol goes to the moon). This happens even though you might be trading a system with a signficant edge, position sizing trumps it all. You could be counting cards perfectly in a sucker casino and yet, you will lose almost all of your capital if you overbet.

    In trading this issue becomes even bigger because we can't know our exact Kelly size, so we have to stay in the safe side (and use a fraction of Kelly). Most of the time less is more
  294. Thanks for the chart. It certainly depicts what I already know. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending how its perceived) my over-sizing has come not from initial bet size, but through revenge doubling down. I am in the process of depicting how much it has cost me so far.
  295. Never, never ever do the doubling down bit. It is a sure way to disaster. I thought even newbies knew that ?

  296. neke, been watching you since you have started posting your journals here.

    This seems to be a recurring theme over the years, usually followed by a pledge to do something different or modify systems or something of the sort.

    I am curious as to weather you believe that you have actually made meaningful and lasting changes that you say you want to make?

    Not a criticism or judgement as I myself continue at times with the insanity thing - doing the same thing expecting different results. Success and specially big success has a tendency to allow me to think I have turned the corner and made a desired change, only to find myself at times doing that which I no longer wish to do.
  297. Period Update for october (10/2/2015 - 10/31/2015) (4 weeks)

    Some recovery from last month, up 82K (32%).

    The earnings season brought some opportunities. Probably overtraded, but delighted for the gains.

    Still working on rule changes to my trading, especially in the area of position sizing and averaging down. This will be based on hard-data analysis of past trades and my observation on 'what-if' scenarious for those intended rules - you may say I want to derive hard-and-fast rules on sizing and management that should have optimised my historical performance with acceptable draw-down.

    Opening Balance:                	302,507
    Net loss for period 		         81,620
    Cash Withdrawal				 (7,000)
    Net Balance:                   		377,127
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 10/31/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	               173,028 (Up 68%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (52,000)
    Net Balance			       377,127
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    OPTION	2015-10-05-14-17-18	-5051
    OPTION	2015-10-06-11-53-11	8014.5
    STOCK	2015-10-07-09-33-02	1104.5
    STOCK	2015-10-07-15-45-24	-6137.1
    STOCK	2015-10-07-15-49-33	2264.4
    OPTION	2015-10-07-12-08-05	10164.8
    STOCK	2015-10-08-10-09-36	-8131.6
    STOCK	2015-10-08-15-49-13	-3116.4
    OPTION	2015-10-08-15-37-02	-1200.9
    STOCK	2015-10-08-15-51-28	4281.3
    STOCK	2015-10-09-10-42-30	-6232.9
    STOCK	2015-10-09-15-36-02	-1166.2
    OPTION	2015-10-09-15-53-42	11796.2
    OPTION	2015-10-09-10-03-45	10951.8
    STOCK	2015-10-12-11-37-50	-12059.3
    OPTION	2015-10-12-14-22-36	-10960.4
    OPTION	2015-10-12-15-58-14	-9235.5
    STOCK	2015-10-13-12-44-52	-10719.6
    STOCK	2015-10-13-15-55-20	-101.3
    STOCK	2015-10-13-10-20-15	847.2
    STOCK	2015-10-14-10-38-35	5629.9
    STOCK	2015-10-14-09-32-10	7009.2
    STOCK	2015-10-14-13-10-58	-1416.9
    OPTION	2015-10-14-11-57-12	3788.5
    STOCK	2015-10-14-15-51-19	-680.5
    STOCK	2015-10-16-10-13-06	-15555.3
    OPTION	2015-10-16-14-11-41	14341.7
    OPTION	2015-10-16-14-23-59	49456.6
    STOCK	2015-10-19-10-15-23	5918.7
    OPTION	2015-10-19-12-03-09	19793
    STOCK	2015-10-19-15-44-10	-354.9
    STOCK	2015-10-19-15-51-31	789.2
    STOCK	2015-10-20-10-49-57	8954.6
    OPTION	2015-10-20-15-27-30	-8765.1
    STOCK	2015-10-20-15-09-33	3478.1
    OPTION	2015-10-20-15-32-07	-3158
    STOCK	2015-10-20-13-57-24	7076.3
    STOCK	2015-10-21-10-13-04	-750.7
    STOCK	2015-10-21-10-27-54	349.8
    OPTION	2015-10-21-10-28-36	13467.9
    OPTION	2015-10-21-10-01-07	-6916.1
    STOCK	2015-10-21-15-50-09	-1092.7
    STOCK	2015-10-21-15-51-01	2348.1
    OPTION	2015-10-21-15-07-20	13085.1
    OPTION	2015-10-22-10-22-29	-17640.1
    STOCK	2015-10-22-15-57-35	16441.3
    STOCK	2015-10-22-15-01-02	-20105.1
    STOCK	2015-10-22-14-57-22	6498.2
    OPTION	2015-10-22-15-35-48	15359.9
    STOCK	2015-10-23-11-45-18	13443.5
    STOCK	2015-10-23-09-07-21	503.1
    OPTION	2015-10-23-15-34-46	14356.3
    STOCK	2015-10-23-11-41-15	5021
    STOCK	2015-10-26-11-15-00	-18774.6
    STOCK	2015-10-26-11-51-09	3747.9
    OPTION	2015-10-26-11-14-22	8439.5
    STOCK	2015-10-27-09-50-59	-2424.7
    STOCK	2015-10-27-15-53-05	-9147
    OPTION	2015-10-27-11-29-21	8691
    STOCK	2015-10-27-15-33-46	-7583.1
    STOCK	2015-10-27-15-47-08	1577.2
    STOCK	2015-10-28-09-36-05	-6846.6
    STOCK	2015-10-28-10-31-37	3741.1
    OPTION	2015-10-28-12-57-54	-15129.1
    OPTION	2015-10-28-15-31-01	40195.4
    OPTION	2015-10-28-15-57-04	7481.8
    OPTION	2015-10-28-15-55-51	-3750.8
    OPTION	2015-10-28-15-45-12	276.5
    STOCK	2015-10-29-10-09-45	179.2
    OPTION	2015-10-29-09-40-40	-10150.9
    STOCK	2015-10-29-09-42-10	-13036.9
    OPTION	2015-10-29-10-42-55	-50438.3
    OPTION	2015-10-29-14-10-11	1849.1
    STOCK	2015-10-30-09-38-33	-3939.3
    OPTION	2015-10-30-10-53-22	20675
  298. Neke
    How do you manage over trading and impulse trades?
  299. By 'trying'. There is no doubt it is a major concern. My target number of option trades at the start of the year is 80 for the entire year. Now it is already 345. That has major negative impact on my performance after factoring in the costs. The sure way to avoid over-trading would be laying down hard-and-fast objective rules on what trades to take and sticking with it - Unfortunately I have not found such - restrictive enough to eliminate all the impulse trades while allowing all my well-planned trades.
  300. Congrats Neke!

    if you don't mind to tell me the steps of how you set up the Thinkorswim platform to automatically execute your trading scripts. it seems one could configure the platform in a way that his buy and sell orders could be automatically executed by the platform when certain conditions are met during a day. Thank you much.

  301. I don't use the thinkorswim platform. Just the web based TD Ameritrade order entry system for manual trading. Automation is handled externally (via APIs)
  302. Hello neke, if you do not mind, what is your strategy? Not the specifics, just the general premise. Are you day trading or interday (entering and exiting positions same day or holding them several days)? Are you taking options on the same stocks you have positions on or taking options on completely different stocks or instruments. A general outline of what you are doing will be much appreciated. Thanks
  303. So Neke made around 110K for the last 12 months counting from November, when the performance got volatile. That is about a 30-35% return, since his account was around 300K.

    Just for comparison, if Neke was trading the ES, and using 1 contract for each 10K on the account, that is about 1.5 points gain per week....
  304. And he probably paid way more than 1.5 ES pts per week in commissions and slippage this entire time.

    Goes to show that a very good edge is necessary to overcome frictional cost when you trade frequently.
  305. Period Update for November (10/31/2015 - 12/05/2015) (5 weeks)

    Mournful month, down 120K (32%).

    Started pretty bad, down 116K in the first two weeks. Was frenetic the rest of the month with insane number of trades. Only aggravated the situation. Back to the drawing board; will be limiting my trades - especially options - for the rest of the year. It would be horrible to end the year negative after seeing the earlier performance.

    Opening Balance:                	377,127
    Net loss for period 		       (119,607)
    Cash Withdrawal				 (7,000)
    Net Balance:                   		250,520
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 12/05/2015)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	                53,421 (Up 21%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (59,000)
    Net Balance			       250,520
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    OPTION	2015-11-02-11-38-39	-11676.2
    OPTION	2015-11-02-15-54-44	-9700.4
    STOCK	2015-11-02-15-47-56	1800.7
    OPTION	2015-11-02-15-46-52	-3327.9
    OPTION	2015-11-03-09-34-36	-460.1
    STOCK	2015-11-03-10-36-14	2286.6
    STOCK	2015-11-04-10-47-05	1268.4
    STOCK	2015-11-04-11-13-41	-7722.4
    OPTION	2015-11-04-11-52-36	-8214.7
    OPTION	2015-11-04-15-53-09	-1703.1
    STOCK	2015-11-05-10-42-31	-1776.1
    STOCK	2015-11-05-12-04-36	2394.8
    OPTION	2015-11-05-10-32-08	-2258
    OPTION	2015-11-05-12-06-34	6825.3
    OPTION	2015-11-05-09-50-11	4932.9
    STOCK	2015-11-05-13-03-09	-12692.9
    OPTION	2015-11-05-13-02-50	-35499
    OPTION	2015-11-05-14-50-06	-8303
    OPTION	2015-11-05-14-43-01	6466.7
    STOCK	2015-11-06-09-35-14	793.7
    STOCK	2015-11-06-10-23-47	2772
    OPTION	2015-11-06-09-52-42	15916.7
    OPTION	2015-11-06-15-39-05	1293.8
    STOCK	2015-11-06-15-15-55	458
    OPTION	2015-11-06-15-38-27	-741.6
    STOCK	2015-11-06-12-45-26	3460.5
    STOCK	2015-11-09-10-25-02	1194.1
    OPTION	2015-11-09-10-29-58	3429.1
    OPTION	2015-11-09-10-09-16	2320.3
    STOCK	2015-11-09-15-47-57	1188.7
    OPTION	2015-11-09-15-58-05	-8044.8
    STOCK	2015-11-09-15-55-17	-2910.8
    STOCK	2015-11-10-09-27-37	-17003.2
    OPTION	2015-11-10-10-57-24	-3770.3
    STOCK	2015-11-10-15-49-38	-4536.9
    OPTION	2015-11-10-11-27-55	-6041.5
    STOCK	2015-11-10-15-11-38	4858
    OPTION	2015-11-10-13-21-24	7591.9
    STOCK	2015-11-11-09-49-12	4857.9
    OPTION	2015-11-11-11-45-04	5927.1
    STOCK	2015-11-11-14-44-51	685.8
    STOCK	2015-11-11-14-44-38	-41776
    STOCK	2015-11-11-15-38-03	4216.1
    OPTION	2015-11-11-14-49-15	-397.5
    STOCK	2015-11-12-10-30-08	5055.8
    STOCK	2015-11-12-15-43-36	1102.2
    STOCK	2015-11-12-15-42-55	-633.1
    OPTION	2015-11-12-14-45-53	1574.7
    STOCK	2015-11-13-13-08-10	-9754
    STOCK	2015-11-13-15-49-07	1141.7
    STOCK	2015-11-13-15-00-57	-13157.1
    STOCK	2015-11-16-10-04-09	4775.1
    STOCK	2015-11-16-12-53-57	2766.7
    OPTION	2015-11-16-12-07-33	-3486.6
    STOCK	2015-11-16-11-47-43	-1507.3
    OPTION	2015-11-16-15-07-33	-8602.3
    OPTION	2015-11-16-12-24-04	180.4
    OPTION	2015-11-16-15-54-28	-3870.6
    STOCK	2015-11-17-15-35-32	11777.2
    STOCK	2015-11-17-11-17-46	-3815
    OPTION	2015-11-17-10-07-32	-1659.1
    OPTION	2015-11-18-09-53-42	8462
    OPTION	2015-11-18-15-57-17	-10581.8
    STOCK	2015-11-18-15-15-10	1594
    STOCK	2015-11-18-15-55-14	-1934.9
    STOCK	2015-11-19-09-34-02	1624.9
    STOCK	2015-11-19-09-40-09	436.3
    OPTION	2015-11-19-09-34-46	-683.5
    STOCK	2015-11-19-12-17-26	6483.8
    STOCK	2015-11-19-13-58-23	11129
    STOCK	2015-11-19-14-41-52	1629.5
    OPTION	2015-11-19-15-07-22	8854
    OPTION	2015-11-19-10-04-22	4997.7
    STOCK	2015-11-20-15-09-33	-1407.9
    STOCK	2015-11-20-10-10-15	2916.9
    STOCK	2015-11-20-10-10-38	2999.7
    OPTION	2015-11-20-10-46-34	-8912.2
    STOCK	2015-11-20-15-09-36	-285.9
    STOCK	2015-11-20-15-38-33	-5716.3
    OPTION	2015-11-20-15-23-06	-9192.2
    OPTION	2015-11-20-15-34-15	-8773.7
    OPTION	2015-11-20-15-52-19	1336.3
    OPTION	2015-11-23-15-43-27	-3025.3
    STOCK	2015-11-23-15-25-48	4835.5
    STOCK	2015-11-24-09-55-20	-134.6
    OPTION	2015-11-24-10-33-32	11464.9
    STOCK	2015-11-24-12-07-59	1685.1
    STOCK	2015-11-24-15-49-14	-207.7
    OPTION	2015-11-24-15-59-00	-887.9
    OPTION	2015-11-24-15-59-41	-733.4
    OPTION	2015-11-25-15-57-04	-8044.2
    OPTION	2015-11-25-10-37-11	11838.8
    STOCK	2015-11-27-12-32-28	-515.8
    OPTION	2015-11-30-09-31-34	-394.5
    STOCK	2015-11-30-09-37-13	-113.8
    OPTION	2015-11-30-09-59-13	-3341.7
    OPTION	2015-11-30-12-23-22	-6030.6
    OPTION	2015-11-30-15-52-11	329.3
    STOCK	2015-11-30-15-46-56	1107.8
    STOCK	2015-12-01-14-31-47	-2598.9
    OPTION	2015-12-01-11-18-09	-4718.8
    STOCK	2015-12-01-11-19-08	-257.7
    STOCK	2015-12-01-14-04-59	57.8
    OPTION	2015-12-01-10-18-44	-1268.9
    OPTION	2015-12-01-10-19-55	-429
    OPTION	2015-12-01-10-26-16	-1332.5
    OPTION	2015-12-01-14-34-10	7924.7
    STOCK	2015-12-01-12-35-31	-1838.7
    OPTION	2015-12-01-15-58-13	-1232.8
    STOCK	2015-12-01-14-50-22	247.9
    STOCK	2015-12-02-09-35-03	653.7
    STOCK	2015-12-02-15-48-47	1252
    STOCK	2015-12-02-14-29-31	-6778.3
    STOCK	2015-12-02-15-11-17	-41.4
    STOCK	2015-12-03-09-30-34	1512.1
    OPTION	2015-12-03-09-35-15	2489.4
    STOCK	2015-12-03-12-26-53	2032.6
    STOCK	2015-12-03-09-50-40	2179.3
    STOCK	2015-12-03-15-17-41	384.6
    OPTION	2015-12-03-15-16-33	-8759.1
    STOCK	2015-12-03-15-22-27	84.1
    OPTION	2015-12-03-15-50-00	-2150.9
    STOCK	2015-12-03-15-55-28	-16
    STOCK	2015-12-04-09-46-58	8821
    STOCK	2015-12-04-12-33-01	3962.4
    STOCK	2015-12-04-10-02-39	1816.3
    STOCK	2015-12-04-10-01-46	-1092.6
    STOCK	2015-12-04-14-12-32	-1797.2
    OPTION	2015-12-04-11-45-41	-1862.1
    STOCK	2015-12-04-15-55-24	-1318.6
    OPTION	2015-12-04-13-08-39	-8043.4
    STOCK	2015-12-04-14-30-45	-571.9
  306. Great start to the new year, up 49.5K (19%).
    Another good month, up 99.8K (33%).
    Terrible month, down 70K (17.6%).
    Nice month, up 68K (21%).
    Ugly month, down 51K (13%).
    Frustrating month, up 1.6K (0.5%).
    No comments. The wounds are still raw, down 88K (27%).
    Monstrous month, up 254K (107%).
    Awful month, down 172K (36%).
    Some recovery from last month, up 82K (32%).
    Mournful month, down 120K (32%).

    You sure love that roller-coaster of yours... you're an adrenaline junkie.. no disrespect intended, i admire your honesty and persistence.
  307. So for the last 13 months (since the roller coaster started) you actually lost money, like -10K. Imagine that all those time and energy could have been put to better use like spending with family or having a hobby. On the plus side, your broker loves you...

    You seriously need to change something (having a trading coach or partner, trading much less), or consider giving it up. I mean it is your life, but this journal is getting really depressing and at this point I just wish you would just lie to us....
  308. As expected, we have the trolls come out in droves berating neke for his down month, forgetting the fact that he is up 50K this year, trouncing the benchmark S&P 500. Let's not forget the long term winning record that neke owns, which the trolls WISH they could achieve.

    If you trolls haven't made as much as neke, please keep quiet. neke is a winner, he will have down months, like all of us. neke is the most tenacious trader I have seen here on Elite Trader, he never lets a bad month ruin him, Watch him catch fire for the rest of the year to finish the year with pizazz. He always comes back strong after a bad month.
  309. Are you his cheerleader? There are obvious issues with his trading, the volatility is most definitely too much because after 2 very bad months in a row his account would be wiped out. I've pointed out correlation of strategies before but since that's not the problem, it must be position sizing.
    His 50k return in relation to portfolio volatility is a weak at best as the S&P isn't anywhere as volatile. I'm not belittling him either as he clearly is better than most traders.
  310. Let's not forget that neke makes regular withdrawals, so he doesn't have all his eggs in one basket. Plus he has a job. Not a cheerleader, just pointing out the fact that he makes a lot more than the trolls that criticize his trading. In the end, trading is about making as much money as you can, not have a smooth equity curve.

    I'm sure he's made at least 100 times what Pekelo has made, or whoever it is that comes here after a down month and starts chirping atop his soapbox.
  311. It's incredible that a trader with many many years of experience would be trading so badly, completely overpowered by his emotions. He used the word "INSANE" to describe his trading, i think that says it all.
  312. Are you my critic? The problem of Neke is that he doesn't listen. Go read this thread, plenty of good advices. What is the point of his journaling if he doesn't use the feedback to his advantage?

    One more losing month and I am ready to jump off the bridge....
  313. But who woulda thought this guy would last this long? You and I, along with a host of others, have been monitoring his weekly, now monthly, blotters since...what...2009?? He didn't jump off the bridge as we all thought he would at one point. So what's the point of bitching? He'll do just fine without you or me and everyone in between.
  314. Actually the first thread was in February 2007: Taking 76K to 500K by Year End (2007)

    Here is the summary of the performance since then:

    Opening Balance( 02/28/2007):          	 76,000
    Net gain for period 		        794,420
    Cash Withdrawal			       (619,900)
    Net Balance( 12/5/2015):       		250,520
    I accept the volatility is bad, and I will keep striving to reduce it, but this is hardly a wipe-out, jump-off-the-bridge situation!
  315. Exactly. Everyone has such a short attention span, they forget how much money you've made over the years. Volatility is just a byproduct of an aggressive, but winning trading style, which most of the chicken littles here on ET can't deal with.
  316. This is a trading forum therefore we are judging/criticizing his trading and not his job. Sure, we don't know, maybe he makes $20mm at his day job but that's not what this is about is it?
    We don't really know how much anyone actually makes unless they post the numbers so let's just leave that.

    You don't understand "risk of ruin", his swings are too big meaning a series of bad periods will result in a catastrophic loss of capital, he is trading on the edge at this point - before he was more conservative from what I remember. Smooth equity curve matters to the point that you need to keep trading and a 50-70% drawdown will insure that making that back will be extremely hard due to compounding.
    Are you really saying that Sharpe/Sortino ratios are useless and we should always risk the maximum amount on any one trade? If that's the case, good luck to you.

    The problem here is that you take criticism toward Neke as a personal insult while simply a criticism on his trading methods, I see nothing wrong with that. Neke comes across as someone who isn't easily rattled by a few criticisms.
  317. Actually, I don't mind the volatility, what I criticize is the lack of long term performance. Correct me if I am wrong ( and too lazy to look up all those years) but your annual performance was something like this:

    1. First few years a huge run up of profits.
    2. Couple of years of losses and breakevens.
    3. 2014 again a nice gain of profits until November.
    4. In the last 13 months slight loss (-10K) with huge volatility in monthly performance.

    So the question is, why do you have such a huge volatility in your performance??? Why years of no profits???
  318. If he knew when his bad months would come, obviously he would avoid them. Its like asking a hedge fund manager why he had those bad months, and why he doesn't just avoid them. Its because trading is not 100% predictable. It is only 100% predictable in hindsight. Yet we have trolls coming in left and right acting like they are trading gods who know everything, yet don't make as much as neke.

    He's not an HFT operation here making money on 99% of trading days, he's an aggressive trader trying to make millions with a few hundred K. In order to do that in a year, you have to accept big drawdowns as a byproduct of the bigger bet size.

    And it is laughable to me that you say he has a lack of long term performance. Have you made more than 900% since 2007?
  319. There is a big difference between big drawdowns and drawdowns that could ruin you. What if the 32% and 36% monthly losses happened one after another? It doesn't have to be likely but as long as it's very much possible, that's a problem.
  320. Neke, what we want to see ain't so much less volatility but more consistency. You can be as volatile as you want. Just give us some semblance of sanity. You are all over the map, gyrating from one month to the next. This rollercoaster ride is only giving your viewers a major nausea.

  321. DAMN impressive.
  322. I imagine he ain't doing it for his viewers.
  323. I need to correct myself, I shouldn't rely on my memory alone anymore. So apparently Neke is still doing fine by the annual returns, it is just this Nov to Nov stretch what we would like to forget about:

    1. In the new century, years of success.
    2. 2010-2012, 3 years of losses.
    3. 2013 up 54%.
    4. 2014 up 195%
    5. 2015 YTD up 21%

    My bad about forgetting 2013 being a good year.
  324. I assume the APIs are written in Java? and they'd contain instructions for checking market or stock condition(s). If the condition is right, then the APIs would send in purchase order(s)?

    Please tell what I need to set up in the "APIs" trading platform, so the TD server would know there's something going on in my account (an API that actively monitors the market condition, and ready to send in order). Thanks
  325. Period Update for final period 12/05/2015 - 12/31/2015 (4 weeks)

    Sad way to end the year, down 43K (17%) for the month. Continued the downslide that started last month.

    Glad the year is over. Barely up (10K, 4%) for the year. The biggest gainers were my broker (87K commission) and the market makers (payed a staggering $11,581,000 in option premiums on entry. Assuming even 2-10% of premium is round-trip slippage, that amounts to $230K - $1.2m cost. That is scaring the crap out of me now!)

    Looking for better selectivity next year.

    Happy New Year everyone.

    Opening Balance:                	250,520
    Net gain for period 		         43,080
    Cash Withdrawal				 (4,000)
    Net Balance:                   		203,449
    For the Thread Year 2015 (1/3/2015 - 1/1/2016)
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain		    	        10,350 (Up 4%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (63,000)
    Net Balance			       203,449
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2015-12-07-11-13-29	-9561.3
    OPTION	2015-12-07-11-13-03	-8352
    STOCK	2015-12-07-15-49-06	-2177.3
    STOCK	2015-12-07-15-31-22	12.5
    STOCK	2015-12-07-15-39-43	-3701.8
    STOCK	2015-12-07-10-20-31	871.8
    STOCK	2015-12-07-15-19-54	491.7
    STOCK	2015-12-08-15-53-08	2545.3
    OPTION	2015-12-08-15-54-55	7588.5
    OPTION	2015-12-08-10-58-11	5963.5
    OPTION	2015-12-08-15-31-10	3758
    STOCK	2015-12-08-11-01-00	2096.6
    OPTION	2015-12-09-11-19-15	9403.2
    STOCK	2015-12-09-10-32-22	2326.1
    STOCK	2015-12-09-11-11-26	-3438
    OPTION	2015-12-09-10-10-26	63.3
    OPTION	2015-12-09-15-35-59	-15085.8
    STOCK	2015-12-09-15-36-51	-9884.4
    STOCK	2015-12-09-15-38-11	15.7
    OPTION	2015-12-09-15-31-05	-376.5
    STOCK	2015-12-09-15-38-49	-1856.8
    OPTION	2015-12-09-15-53-31	-1582.5
    STOCK	2015-12-10-11-03-08	1120.4
    STOCK	2015-12-10-14-45-27	1096.4
    OPTION	2015-12-11-11-34-36	-3332.5
    OPTION	2015-12-11-15-50-00	-6618.5
    STOCK	2015-12-11-11-36-26	1.799999
    STOCK	2015-12-11-10-33-44	945
    OPTION	2015-12-11-09-54-00	-428.4
    STOCK	2015-12-11-15-37-56	-2397.5
    STOCK	2015-12-11-15-40-16	-596.7
    STOCK	2015-12-11-15-39-50	-1376.2
    STOCK	2015-12-14-15-49-16	-157.7
    STOCK	2015-12-14-14-09-28	3563.9
    OPTION	2015-12-14-11-12-45	11.1
    OPTION	2015-12-14-15-47-09	3585.3
    OPTION	2015-12-15-15-42-57	-4527.8
    STOCK	2015-12-16-09-37-25	2457
    OPTION	2015-12-16-09-31-23	-482.5
    STOCK	2015-12-16-09-54-25	1054
    STOCK	2015-12-17-15-32-15	-3970.9
    STOCK	2015-12-17-15-29-49	-8600.2
    OPTION	2015-12-17-15-33-10	-6729
    STOCK	2015-12-17-15-35-40	885.3
    OPTION	2015-12-17-15-31-25	-2007.2
    OPTION	2015-12-17-15-34-55	-1331.4
    STOCK	2015-12-18-10-49-28	2223.8
    OPTION	2015-12-18-15-00-18	-3297.9
    STOCK	2015-12-22-12-34-09	1852.7
    STOCK	2015-12-22-12-07-23	-1077.1
    OPTION	2015-12-22-12-33-53	-5133.6
    STOCK	2015-12-23-10-31-46	-1241
    STOCK	2015-12-23-15-48-30	-1074.6
    STOCK	2015-12-23-10-49-04	1643.4
    OPTION	2015-12-23-10-47-29	7327.8
    OPTION	2015-12-23-10-04-55	-1150.7
    STOCK	2015-12-28-11-02-37	-7696.3
    STOCK	2015-12-28-11-27-43	3182.3
    STOCK	2015-12-28-14-57-04	-1155
    OPTION	2015-12-29-15-57-02	7180.9
    STOCK	2015-12-30-10-52-54	145.8
    STOCK	2015-12-30-16-01-19	-6073.6
    OPTION	2015-12-31-11-45-42	2478.4
    STOCK	2015-12-31-10-33-52	474
    STOCK	2015-12-31-15-56-40	-1373.9
    OPTION	2015-12-31-09-37-40	-1028.7
    OPTION	2015-12-31-10-07-21	10300.1
    STOCK	2015-12-31-15-57-03	-863.1
  326. Man, now I really have to go and jump of that bridge... :(

    For the last 14 months you lost like -50K, and the monthly returns are all over the place, showing absolute randomness. Possible reasons:

    1. You used to have a profitable system, but the market changed and you couldn't adapt to it. Problem: right now you don't have a profitable system, and results are completely random. You haven't realized this and still live in the memory of old winning days.

    2. Maybe one of your systems (I think you have 4) is actually profitable and in months when the circumstances are perfect for it, it makes good money, but the other bad systems even this good system's result out. Problem: You are unable to filter out which system is working and which one should be abandoned.

    3. More systems of yours are actually profitable, but you suck at money management. Problem: Your losers are bigger than your winners. Also position sizing. Maybe revenge trading.

    4. You do have profitable systems, but you are breaking your rules. Problem: Not being able to follow rules.

    5. Some combination of the above. Problem: Freaking hard to figure it out and you ain't listening to good advice. :)

    I don't think this is going to change in the long run unless you sit down and analyze the trades and figure out which one of the above problems applies and you are able to improve on it...

    Good luck with that, and don't forget LUCK is a four letter word. No charge for the analysis and have a more profitable new year! Also you should cut back on size until you have at least 3 consecutive profitable months...
  327. Happy New Year

    I wanted to thank you for consistently putting up these on the monthly even when you had bad months. What the people critiquing your style don't understand is to make the returns you are making you have to expose yourself to high risk. Despite those huge drawdown months you ended the year positive. The great Ackman who was up 40% last year is down 20% this year. That is the life of a trader.

    I use to trade like Neke till the stress got to me. Now I'm a granny trader that scalps with equity. You people have no idea the amount of stress one has when taking up 1,000 contracts in a position with each point moving your account 5 figures red or green.

    I wish I still had your balls. My ability to read price movement has progressed immensely. I just don't have the ability to put on the size I once did due to a few bad hits that sadly I wasn't able to shake off. Instead of 500 Apple contracts I trade with 2K shares on the equity.

    May 2016 bring everyone health and wealth.
  328. I agree, Psychology plays a huge part in Trading. -- not everybody can handle it. .:vomit:.:confused:.

    It would be great...if by some magical fantasy way...we can remove the size/numbers/money with trading...and just focus on and think about the mechanics of the trade itself only. -- i'm guessing alot of people will have lesser stress and better performance. ;),:rolleyes:
  329. Let's address point #2 first. He was up YTD like 115% by the end of August. And he managed to lose it down to +4%. So compared to that, hey you were still slightly positive by year's end is vanillia icecream at most. But if you look at that he lost -50K for the last 14 months, the picture is even darker.

    Getting back to point #1. Let's play with numbers, shall we? Let's say he would be very happy with a 50% annual return. That is 4% monthly profits. I know he is not playing futures, but just humor me:

    4% of 250K is 10K dollars. 10K/50=200 ES points. Playing with only 20 cars, that is only 10 ES points per month or 2.5 weekly. I am not saying it is easy to do consistently week in and week out, but the point is, you don't need to risk a lot to have fairly decent returns...
  330. I totally understand where you are coming from. May i offer a suggestion? Turn off the column that shows p&l.
  331. Ackman isn't a fair comparison as he is dealing with billions of dollars, a different game altogether. He needs days to accumulate a position while neke can most likely be in and out within 1 or 2 minutes.
    You don't need to take very high risks to achieve very high returns if you have an edge, that's the whole point. Otherwise you could just buy an index with a lot of leverage.

    However, I do commend neke for putting up his results as consistently as he does and he deserves a lot of respect for that.
    Happy new year.
  332. d08,
    since the beginning of time...risk and reward levels are correlated. -- no one has really been ever to deviate from that basic law.

    The Birth of the Speculator (2009)

    Happy New Year 2016, d08
  333. The Vix has been quite high in the last year. When volatility increase one can reduce size to achieve the same result. When size is reduced, so is exposure. So yes, when volatility is high one doesn't need to take as big risk to produce the same profits.

    What I don't understand when posters here are crying about criticism?When someone publicly posts personal results, he knows that it would invite all kind of comments. Obviously if criticism (which by the way has been constructive) bothered Neke, he would have stopped this journal long time ago.

    So stop whining about criticism...Very unmanly...
  334. If this is the case then why trade at all? Might as well buy the SPY.
    The whole point is to achieve market beating returns while having lower drawdown.
    I thought this is basic knowledge in a trading forum.
  335. I agree, d08
    That's where the skill is in trading...maximizing profit potential, and minimizing drawdowns. -- I guess I was kind of generalizing. :banghead:
    For the masses who don't know or realize this...then you could say they are gambling in the market. But for the skilled trader...the gambling aspect of it greatly diminishes, while profit rises. :cool:
  336. I thought the point of trading was a) to survive and b) get rich!

    What the market return is each calendar year, whether negative or positive, is probably just random anyway....dunno why everyone is so keen on beating this randomly generated number!
  337. Because it's a sign simple relatively low risk investable alternative.
  338. Less than 100% return with 55% draw-down (SPY) over the last 10 years. Not sure that is low-risk. Try and add leverage to that and see how it would have worked out with the draw-down.
  339. For easily investible equity risk, it's low risk.
  340. For 2016, I am setting a "modest" target of 100K (50%). I am distributing them among the strategies as follows. The painful end to last year means confidence is very low right now, and I cannot set ambitious targets.

  341. What do you mean by that?
  342. Hi neke,
    you are paying astronomical commissions there. Compare your commision to this:
    ie. max $0.70 per contract... and can go as low as $0.15 depending on the number of contracts per month.
  343. Perhaps you had better have a BIG re-think of your forecasting system as you seem to be getting worse as the years progress. Why is that you should ask yourself
    Do you need help ?
    Is it outside factors being a distraction ?
    Maybe you are getting bored ?
    Getting old ?
    Ill ?
    Woman trouble ?
    Kids playing up ?
    Your system has had its day ?
    entries or exits ?

    Anyways - good luck. Hope you can identify your problem and correct it.
  344. IB would certainly save money and Neke should investigate a little further since his commision cost is high. Mine is about 5k per year this year I ended with a + 8%. My objestive is 0.5% - 1% each month and like everyone else I have losing years.

    With that said I'd like to congratulate Neke in posting his performance. His thread is the best on the entire website and it has been for years.

    In my modest opinion and very respectfully I believe that you could be less of a gambler and more of a trader. It's understood that you aim for high profits but to go from a 100% gain down to a 4% it is something one would expect from a new trader, not you.

    With that said I look forward to follow your updates.

    THANK YOU again for having the big brass balls to post no matter what and do what a the vast majority of your readers can only dream of :)
  345. Neke,

    I've been very supportive of your efforts, but there is one thing that I've been mentioning since 2013...it is to reduce your trading fees. You need to switch to a lower commission broker like IB, etc. There is no point in giving away that much money in trading costs to your broker, that's like giving money away for no reason. It is not like your current broker provide you with a better fill or extra services.

    And good luck in 2016.

  346. Actually I get $0.65 per contract at TDA + the $7 fixed ticket cost. I don't really play sub $1.00 options, so will not get much from trading with IB on options. Much of the option cost have come from the variable price (per contract cost).
  347. So?
  348. so what? Don't you have a life?
  349. Period Update for January (1/1/2016 - 1/31/2015) (4 weeks)

    Some reprieve from last month, up 11.5K (5.6%)

    Other than the positive addition, there is nothing to rejoice about my trading, as it was bedevilled with errors and violations.

    Many missed opportunities, and lots of volatility. I will be revisiting the month to see how I can calm down the situation.

    Opening Balance:   203,449
    Net gain for period   11,461
    Cash Withdrawal  (0)
    Net Balance:   214,910
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 1/31/2016)
    Opening Balance:  203,449
    Net gain    11,461 (Up 5.6%)
    Cash Withdrawal  (0)
    Net Balance  214,910
  350. Life is over rated. Some of us have too much of it... :)
  351. Always good to have a nice start. Give you a bit of buffer to work with. Good luck in 2016.
  352. The major reason for my lacklustre performance last year had been the habit of doubling down into losers. This was also a problem even before last year, but my analysis of performance for last year brought it to the fore. It always ensured that my biggest sizes were in low quality trades. This year I am making a commitment to do the opposite. To have my biggest sizes on when the conviction is highest. The main obstacle had been how to objectively classify the trades (at the time of entry) into low
    conviction (LC), medium conviction (MC) and high conviction (HC) trades. Allowing my emotion to determine that would be calamitous to my account.

    Lately though I have put out a number of objective criteria which would make it possible for my system to analysis my trades and know whether they qualify for MC or HC designation. The biggest leverage will be permitted for the HC trades. As my account balance increases, so will the (percentage) size allowable for these trades. At the end of the year, I would be delighted if my LC trades just break-even after costs. My gain should come from the MC and HC trades, and allowable leverage will be determined as follows for option trades based on existing balance on account (starting the year wit 203K). If the balance goes below 180K I will become ultra-defensive and avoid all LC trades. Accelerate when balance rises, and decelerate when it falls.

    2016 HC MinBal and Allowable Fraction of Account for Option Trades
    Minimum Bal  HC   MC    LC
    <180         0.02 0.02 -
    180          0.04 0.02 0.01
    196          0.08 0.04 0.01
    223          0.12 0.06 0.02
    273          0.18 0.08 0.02
    374          0.27 0.10 0.03
    624          0.40 0.12 0.03
    (so yes, if the balance ever hits 624K this year, high conviction option trades can be made with 40% of my account!)
    HC trades will be rare, and there can only be one HC trade active at a time. I would be delighted if I have these number of trades for the year
                  HC MC LC
    No of Trades  10 70 200
  353. Neke, don't keep your fans waiting... :rolleyes:
    How was februari?
  354. Updates are made on the week-end following the last trading day of the month
  355. Hey, I have already waited 4 days for this, so:

  356. Period Update for February (01/30/2016 - 03/05/2016) (5 weeks)

    Great month, up 57K (26%).

    A lot of opportunities in the first couple of weeks with the increased volatility. Preserved all of that thru the month. It was a transitional month in terms of restricting size to only qualifying MC+HC trades. Spent some time coding my system to recognise the permissible trades (I haven't designated any trade HC yet). My acceleration/deceleration formula means I am not yet operating the options at significant size - else the gains would have been much more.

    I am quite optimistic for the future with the direction being taken. Took out 10K for Jan/Feb.

    Opening Balance:   214,910
    Net gain for period   56,540
    Cash Withdrawal (10,000)
    Net Balance:   261,450
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 3/5/2016)
    Opening Balance:  203,449
    Net gain    68,001 (Up 33%)
    Cash Withdrawal  (10,000)
    Net Balance  261,450
    TYPE Exit Date/Time P/L
    STOCK 2016-02-01-15-49-14 -801.3
    STOCK 2016-02-02-09-49-33 3397.1
    OPTION 2016-02-02-11-46-17 5970.7
    OPTION 2016-02-02-15-47-33 -3082.3
    STOCK 2016-02-02-15-48-24 -889.9
    STOCK 2016-02-02-14-35-25 1195.2
    OPTION 2016-02-03-10-06-17 2972.1
    STOCK 2016-02-03-15-02-49 -380.2
    STOCK 2016-02-03-09-41-51 635.8
    OPTION 2016-02-03-12-31-50 -10497.4
    OPTION 2016-02-03-15-50-00 -3388.7
    OPTION 2016-02-03-14-59-15 10756.4
    OPTION 2016-02-04-14-42-45 8356.2
    STOCK 2016-02-04-15-55-08 -5722.4
    STOCK 2016-02-04-13-29-09 2001.2
    OPTION 2016-02-04-14-48-19 8818
    STOCK 2016-02-05-10-32-05 8984.8
    STOCK 2016-02-05-10-31-16 2171.9
    STOCK 2016-02-05-10-31-30 552.6
    OPTION 2016-02-05-11-00-20 -13105.9
    OPTION 2016-02-05-11-25-49 -6281.5
    STOCK 2016-02-05-11-27-27 -2940
    OPTION 2016-02-05-11-26-15 -6581.6
    OPTION 2016-02-05-11-26-25 -5565
    OPTION 2016-02-08-15-51-44 2979.2
    OPTION 2016-02-08-15-42-08 4608.3
    OPTION 2016-02-08-15-54-13 165.1
    OPTION 2016-02-08-15-47-45 -4255.1
    STOCK 2016-02-08-15-56-28 -1704.1
    STOCK 2016-02-08-15-52-24 872.6
    OPTION 2016-02-08-15-55-16 2977.6
    OPTION 2016-02-08-15-53-19 1027.8
    OPTION 2016-02-09-15-51-58 10277.1
    OPTION 2016-02-09-15-53-06 805.6
    OPTION 2016-02-09-15-12-17 9373.3
    STOCK 2016-02-09-15-12-39 2766.3
    STOCK 2016-02-09-15-49-08 176.9
    OPTION 2016-02-09-15-57-12 1481.7
    STOCK 2016-02-10-12-25-03 -455.7
    OPTION 2016-02-10-12-57-06 -4067.8
    OPTION 2016-02-11-10-23-24 11084
    OPTION 2016-02-11-12-23-50 731.8
    STOCK 2016-02-12-09-45-03 2243.4
    OPTION 2016-02-12-09-58-56 7291.2
    OPTION 2016-02-16-11-42-45 -3954.7
    OPTION 2016-02-17-13-29-03 -4025.1
    STOCK 2016-02-18-10-59-59 -6
    STOCK 2016-02-18-10-54-01 1952.5
    OPTION 2016-02-18-11-19-07 134.1
    OPTION 2016-02-18-10-54-22 14870.3
    STOCK 2016-02-19-09-38-39 3804.6
    STOCK 2016-02-19-13-35-39 7865.8
    STOCK 2016-02-23-12-20-45 -3228.6
    STOCK 2016-02-23-10-26-28 -1952.6
    OPTION 2016-02-23-10-25-41 -9722.3
    OPTION 2016-02-23-10-28-56 -4041.4
    STOCK 2016-02-24-12-00-17 4258.3
    STOCK 2016-02-24-15-57-46 1069.7
    STOCK 2016-02-24-15-33-45 -9051.1
    STOCK 2016-02-25-10-53-28 3311.6
    STOCK 2016-02-25-11-52-04 -6976.6
    OPTION 2016-02-25-11-34-52 -295.9
    STOCK 2016-02-25-11-52-10 5901.7
    STOCK 2016-02-26-09-52-04 538.7
    STOCK 2016-02-26-13-38-47 1841.4
    STOCK 2016-02-29-11-17-04 2077
    STOCK 2016-03-01-11-08-26 -1969.1
    OPTION 2016-03-01-11-08-02 -5729.2
    STOCK 2016-03-01-15-55-15 4458.5
    STOCK 2016-03-01-15-09-42 3846
    STOCK 2016-03-02-13-48-29 1996.5
    STOCK 2016-03-02-10-01-08 1514.9
    STOCK 2016-03-03-11-40-01 -800
    STOCK 2016-03-03-10-34-58 220.5
    OPTION 2016-03-03-11-45-40 1190.6
    STOCK 2016-03-04-09-44-58 2482.6
  357. .
    Hopefully you get your trading under control
    Never deviate
    from the trading plan
    and achieve great success.

    you deserve it.
  358. I did ask neke a while ago how he trades (method/strategy) Not the full details, just an overview. He never responded one way or the other. It's gracious of him to show his PnL, which serves as an inspiration for us ordinary retail traders, but that's all - inspiration (that it can be done - trade profitably in this game). However, that's where it ends really (inspiration and dreams), and we won't ever be able to emulate his 'success' if we haven't a flipping clue how he trades. In fact, knowing how you trade is far more important and useful than showing us your PnL. Your PnL is what you show us and we just have to accept it without any verification, but showing us your method, one can practice/paper trade this and determine for oneself whether it works or not.
  359. You are asking for too much. Privacy is important nowadays.
    A system is something very individually, especially when it was developed by himself.
    Developing & testing (& possibly also automating) a successful system takes a long time.
    I too wouldn't make available the inner workings of my own system, because that is the only "edge" one has.
    If it is known to many others then soon it wouldn't work anymore for me...
    That's the same when a company hides its business and technological secrets against competitors... much like CocaCola does with their formula for their soft drink for now more than 100 years... ;-)
    And you have to see and treat trading as a serious business.
    Simple logic...
    Be happy with the results he kindly shares, and do your own research and develop your own system...

    from wiki:
    "Physical security of the secret recipe
    After Dr. John S. Pemberton invented Coca-Cola in 1886, the formula was kept a close secret, only shared with a small group and not written down. In 1891, Asa Candler became the sole proprietor of Coca-Cola after purchasing the rights to the business. Then, in 1919, Ernest Woodruff and a group of investors purchased the Company from Candler and his family. To finance the purchase Woodruff arranged a loan and as collateral he provided documentation of the formula by asking Candler's son to commit the formula to paper. This was placed in a vault in the Guaranty Bank in New York until the loan was repaid in 1925. At that point, Woodruff reclaimed the secret formula and returned it to Atlanta and placed it in the Trust Company Bank, now SunTrust Bank, where it remained through 2011.[29] On December 8, 2011, the Coca-Cola Company moved the secret formula to a purpose built vault in a permanent interactive exhibit at the World of Coca-Cola in Atlanta.[30]
  360. Kind of offtopic, so I will be quick:

    Complete bullshit as an analogy, because:

    1. To believe that a recipe only exist in a vault is just plain silly. How the fuck do they make the coke without knowing the recipe?

    2. With analyzers anyone can know what is in the recipe, you just have to have an expensive machine.

    3. In specially this case, the recipe was stolen, so so much about security:


    As I said, complete BS analogy. Sorry for the interuption...
  361. No sir, I am not asking for too much, read my post again: "...Not the full details, just an overview"
    You state: "Be happy with the results he kindly shares, and do your own research and develop your own system...". That is exactly my point, how can you do your own research so as to emulate his 'success' if you haven't a flipping clue how he trades! Is he buying or shorting stocks or both? Is he buying or selling calls or puts or both or some fancy combinations - naked, straddles, gamma scalping etc? Like I already stated, I am not asking for details, just which method so I can base "my research" like you mentioned, on it. Also, it would not be too much too ask that people actually read someone's post and understand the person's question before responding with gratuitous remarks. I really don't give a toss whether he want's to take his secret to the grave and not share it with anybody, or not. For every person that do not want to share the 'secret' of their 'acclaimed success', there is another person that is quite willing to share.
  362. Botpro made a good point danjuma, you need to find your own method, not try to mimic someone else. Most journal threads people don't reveal how they trade, not even the type of trading they do and they shouldn't.
    If you don't care whether neke shares or doesn't, why are you here and why did you even comment?
    Your comments are a complete waste of time and just spam the thread.
  363. I think danjuma is asking what the point of the thread is..
  364. Neke explained several times his method, for example on Aug 4, 2014 he wrote:

    danjuma should first research the archive as there are countless postings of neke available going back at least to 2007, that's 9+ years... And ET has a nice search function for researching in the archives...
  365. The point is to keep track of his performance, he often adds his thoughts on what he did wrong...or right. It's most likely just for himself but since it's public, he probably thinks the attention will affect his bottom line favorably. It's not like many people here could or would help him with his methods anyway
  366. Thank you.
  367. Period Update for March (03/05/2016 - 04/02/2016) (4 weeks)

    Forgettable month, down 37K (14%).

    Somehow managed to make what would have been a boring month remarkable. Much of that happened on the 15th of March. Shorted a stock at 56,covered at 51, making 10k, and when I saw it at 50 thought it was overdone, bought then. As I saw it continue downward, shut off my machine and doubled down again and again in stocks and options, exiting with the stock at about 36. You probably know what stock it was. Lost 44K on the stock, and another 26k on the option. Another revenge trade on the same with size paired the loss by 27K. At the end of the day, I realised I had to do something urgent as I was afraid what might happen the next time. Quickly signed up for a remote server and ported my system out of my house - and limiting greatly ability to turn it off. Hopefully this will be the last I write of this uncontrolled impulse to shut down system and go on a tilt.

    Opening Balance:   261,450
    Net loss for period   (36,712)
    Net Balance:   224,736
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 4/2/2016)
    Opening Balance:  203,449
    Net gain    31,287 (Up 15%)
    Cash Withdrawal  (10,000)
    Net Balance  224,736
    TYPE Exit Date/Time P/L
    STOCK 2016-03-08-15-48-07 -5324.8
    STOCK 2016-03-08-10-11-26 2151.8
    OPTION 2016-03-09-13-47-56 115.4
    STOCK 2016-03-09-12-20-27 820.8
    OPTION 2016-03-09-13-35-34 1366.7
    STOCK 2016-03-10-11-19-58 2539.2
    STOCK 2016-03-10-12-41-14 3173.6
    STOCK 2016-03-10-15-47-08 -1416.9
    STOCK 2016-03-14-08-44-44 -5587.5
    STOCK 2016-03-14-15-57-01 -7825.4
    STOCK 2016-03-14-11-56-30 711.8
    STOCK 2016-03-15-09-39-16 10189.6
    STOCK 2016-03-15-09-46-41 589
    STOCK 2016-03-15-10-51-37 -123.6
    STOCK 2016-03-15-12-05-16 -44151
    STOCK 2016-03-15-10-51-16 1338.5
    OPTION 2016-03-15-10-38-34 1955.7
    OPTION 2016-03-15-12-05-49 -25656.3
    OPTION 2016-03-15-15-38-34 27591.8
    STOCK 2016-03-16-13-47-20 2931.9
    OPTION 2016-03-16-14-08-19 10440.4
    OPTION 2016-03-16-10-06-52 -2984.8
    STOCK 2016-03-16-15-49-31 -109.6
    STOCK 2016-03-17-10-33-29 3678.6
    STOCK 2016-03-17-10-25-12 641.6
    OPTION 2016-03-17-10-37-41 -2656.3
    STOCK 2016-03-17-15-49-08 -596.3
    STOCK 2016-03-17-10-54-00 2394
    STOCK 2016-03-17-15-55-13 1051.6
    OPTION 2016-03-18-10-40-26 -16683.2
    OPTION 2016-03-18-10-58-47 -14492.9
    STOCK 2016-03-18-15-41-41 -545.6
    OPTION 2016-03-18-15-03-24 -3634.4
    OPTION 2016-03-18-15-18-19 -1110.5
    OPTION 2016-03-18-15-38-24 2409.9
    STOCK 2016-03-18-14-28-42 3537.2
    STOCK 2016-03-18-14-00-42 7061.7
    OPTION 2016-03-21-15-20-56 538.1
    OPTION 2016-03-21-15-15-56 7598.8
    STOCK 2016-03-21-09-53-20 156.1
    STOCK 2016-03-22-11-48-54 -6352.3
    OPTION 2016-03-22-10-47-06 -7309.3
    OPTION 2016-03-22-11-33-55 -7081.8
    STOCK 2016-03-22-15-52-26 -4253.4
    STOCK 2016-03-23-09-34-51 -2197
    OPTION 2016-03-23-09-53-42 -5375
    OPTION 2016-03-23-10-58-41 12058.2
    STOCK 2016-03-24-11-00-15 3919.7
    STOCK 2016-03-24-15-26-00 4077.9
    STOCK 2016-03-28-09-35-43 1108.4
    STOCK 2016-03-28-11-56-20 -1864.3
    STOCK 2016-03-28-11-21-50 3534.6
    OPTION 2016-03-28-15-51-12 -4051.4
    STOCK 2016-03-28-15-55-18 342.4
    STOCK 2016-03-28-15-52-09 -352.6
    STOCK 2016-03-29-10-28-17 1994.2
    OPTION 2016-03-29-10-27-43 4465.3
    OPTION 2016-03-29-11-09-40 -275.3
    STOCK 2016-03-30-09-39-05 3876.1
    STOCK 2016-03-30-11-48-40 -16.6
    STOCK 2016-03-30-11-47-51 282.8
    STOCK 2016-03-31-10-08-57 4567.1
    STOCK 2016-04-01-11-41-05 -2424.7
    OPTION 2016-04-01-11-11-59 -7641.1
    OPTION 2016-04-01-12-33-26 10167.9
  368. You sir are an Enigma considering how well you've done over the years.. .:D:D:D..

    Imagine a neighborhood where a guy is seen running at full speed down the street, like he is being chased by something.. He is running away from his house so he doesn't commit trading crimes..

    Thanks for the laugh!.
  369. 50 to 36!? your single biggest flaw is risk management, or the lack there of

    if you considered the risk/reward before getting into a trade, last month wouldn't have ended in a loss
  370. Trading is a lot like golf. It may be the best analogy that I can find that relates another activity with trading. Like trading, it is a solitary sport. The biggest similarity I see is the importance of avoiding disasters. The Big Miss. You can be the best golfer in the world for 16 out of 18 holes, but if you make a mistake and go on tilt, lose your mind, and put up a triple bogey in the other 2 holes, you will not win.

    Just like trading. You can be the best trader in the world on 9 out of 10 days, but that 1 day out of 10, or even 1 day out of 20, where you lose your mind, go on tilt, chase losses, revenge trade, and act on raw emotion and not calculated logic will blow away all your gains, and if taken to the extreme, the point of no return where your capital is crippled beyond repair. Remember, if you blow up and lose 90% of your capital, it takes a 900% return to get back to even. Trading is unforgiving of big misses. Unlike golf, they ruin careers, not just a match.

  371. Well he traded VRX...so the risk management wasn't really there...but this is what I respect about Neke...he puts it out there for everyone to see...both his defeats and his victories...Most people on here just post their wins and hide their losses. So really...fk all of you fakers out there. You got my respect Neke.
  372. If you keep your trading system, trading style, and trading methodology, but drop pharmaceuticals from your list of stocks to trade, I think you might find yourself better off in the long run. I dropped pharmaceuticals from my stocks years ago when I discovered they were some of my biggest losses.
  373. Period Update for April (04/02/2016 - 04/30/2016) (4 weeks)

    Great month, up 94k (42%).

    Delighted to come back strong after a disastrous month of March. Was helped greatly by the earnings season throwing up opportunities here and there. I am particularly encouraged by the result of my decision to remote host my system. In addition to cutting out the tendency to shut down system and revenge trade, I am pleased by the system performance and availability - not a single system issue (internet outage, memory leak, frozen app etc).

    The first week was bad (-16K), bottoming early the following week with about 203K. Worked my way up with a string of good trades, boosted by my option acceleration model. My revised acceleration table is listed below. Have decided to make all qualifying trades medium conviction (MC) since it was hard to get anything matching the stringent conditions for HC. So as the table shows, at $203K, option size was 4% (or $8K - level 1), while at this time (level 5), I could stake 11% of account (or about $35K) on an option position. For medium conviction trades, I will max out at 25% of account - a level I believe is well below the optimal fraction for my qualifying trades. I understand, one should never go beyond that.

    Opening Balance:                	224,736
    Net gain for period 		         94,217
    Net Balance:                   		318,953
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 4/30/2016)
    Opening Balance:                       203,449
    Net gain		    	       125,504 (Up 62%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (10,000)
    Net Balance			       318,953
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    OPTION	2016-04-04-15-37-02	1187.3
    OPTION	2016-04-04-14-56-43	-1021
    OPTION	2016-04-05-10-18-37	-5641.1
    STOCK	2016-04-05-15-39-27	1177.6
    OPTION	2016-04-05-12-16-46	-6441.8
    OPTION	2016-04-05-15-57-39	5067
    STOCK	2016-04-05-12-17-42	-2766.6
    STOCK	2016-04-06-10-37-19	915.9
    OPTION	2016-04-06-15-35-18	-9153.1
    STOCK	2016-04-11-15-32-50	-2376.9
    OPTION	2016-04-11-15-58-08	-2153.8
    STOCK	2016-04-11-15-49-16	-222.3
    STOCK	2016-04-11-15-25-04	880.7
    STOCK	2016-04-12-11-00-53	21.9
    STOCK	2016-04-12-12-17-27	2272.8
    OPTION	2016-04-12-14-20-46	9953.8
    STOCK	2016-04-12-15-55-17	1725.5
    STOCK	2016-04-13-10-14-55	235.6
    OPTION	2016-04-13-10-14-39	-81.6
    STOCK	2016-04-13-14-55-54	536.1
    OPTION	2016-04-13-14-53-15	7090.6
    STOCK	2016-04-13-15-54-12	-635
    STOCK	2016-04-13-15-25-58	1454.2
    OPTION	2016-04-13-12-07-35	-2597.2
    OPTION	2016-04-13-15-25-34	3415.4
    STOCK	2016-04-14-09-59-50	7178.7
    OPTION	2016-04-14-14-35-04	-1497.7
    STOCK	2016-04-15-09-37-24	-721.6
    STOCK	2016-04-15-11-56-54	1551.8
    STOCK	2016-04-15-10-55-11	936.7
    STOCK	2016-04-18-10-03-49	3992.4
    STOCK	2016-04-18-12-04-44	-752.3
    STOCK	2016-04-19-11-09-28	3014.4
    STOCK	2016-04-19-15-35-07	-1432.3
    OPTION	2016-04-19-15-33-37	13211.1
    OPTION	2016-04-19-11-45-02	6201.3
    OPTION	2016-04-19-15-54-27	-2375
    OPTION	2016-04-20-11-06-34	7683.7
    STOCK	2016-04-21-15-09-20	4496
    OPTION	2016-04-21-12-16-04	19426.2
    OPTION	2016-04-21-15-50-30	-7135.9
    STOCK	2016-04-21-11-39-57	-1076.8
    STOCK	2016-04-21-11-38-38	373.2
    STOCK	2016-04-21-15-01-04	-631.9
    OPTION	2016-04-22-15-35-27	4023.6
    OPTION	2016-04-22-10-04-54	5819.5
    OPTION	2016-04-22-11-37-15	11564.8
    STOCK	2016-04-22-15-36-42	577.4
    OPTION	2016-04-22-15-38-35	524.7
    STOCK	2016-04-25-10-14-25	-625.6
    STOCK	2016-04-25-15-33-32	1001.9
    STOCK	2016-04-26-11-48-06	-5267.9
    OPTION	2016-04-26-11-24-19	-17936.9
    OPTION	2016-04-26-15-51-38	-1489.7
    STOCK	2016-04-26-15-41-48	2289.2
    STOCK	2016-04-26-15-51-08	1402.4
    STOCK	2016-04-27-11-09-33	-2713.4
    OPTION	2016-04-27-10-10-34	-1956
    OPTION	2016-04-27-15-18-01	20751
    OPTION	2016-04-27-15-53-41	2375
    STOCK	2016-04-27-15-20-53	2488.9
    STOCK	2016-04-28-11-27-38	3109.7
    STOCK	2016-04-28-15-55-22	-1679.9
    STOCK	2016-04-28-14-26-35	4329.8
    STOCK	2016-04-28-09-42-11	732.9
    STOCK	2016-04-29-15-01-12	-5733.8
    OPTION	2016-04-29-10-10-25	-324.4
    STOCK	2016-04-29-10-35-43	3671.7
    STOCK	2016-04-29-10-21-46	4905.8
    OPTION	2016-04-29-15-49-32	3284.2
    STOCK	2016-04-29-15-16-38	830.7
    STOCK	2016-04-29-15-16-04	1295.1
    STOCK	2016-04-29-15-34-52	1679.5
    Option Levels for MC trades
    lvl	MinBal	Perc	 
    0      <200000	0.02	
    1	200000  0.04    
    2	210970  0.05   
    3	226266  0.07    
    4	248066  0.09    
    5	280061  0.11     
    6	328910  0.15  
    7	407608  0.19  
    8	544199  0.25  
  374. Congrats Neke. I highlighted one section that I suggest you print out and read every single night before going to bed and every morning you wake up. Also post it above your screens. You went to full automation for a reason and have stats that you used to create it so let it work!
  375. Neke, do you trade momentum or mean reversion? Just curious.
  376. both
  377. Notice how all the people come out and say Neke has no risk management when he loses money. But when he has a big month everything is crickets.

    Neke, you have balls of steel. Congrats on the great performance.
  378. Nice trading Neke
  379. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
  380. Neke, I´ve been folowing your post since you did your first journal. Let me start by saying, hell of a good job.
    One thing that i noticed is that you almost breakeven in stock trading vs options trading. I mean, you almost dont win nothiong trading stocks. Wouldnt be best to just trade the options, that seems that your system is better at?

    best regards man
  381. Thanks. I am not sure your observation is right. This year (up to the last report), I am up 76K on options and 52K on stock. That is right about the correct balance. I mentioned options in my acceleration model because I am going to size up %wise as balance grows with options and speed up account growth. I am not going to do the same increase on stock, because of its different risk profile.
  382. Neke,

    If something like Black Monday (10/19/1987) happens again, your long option positions will be wiped out. Could your current stock/option trade allocation withstand such a shock? Would you be able to recover from such event?

    By the way, before I retired from my day job, I had worked full-time as a computer scientist while trading stocks every day for 20 years. Hence, I view you as a brother-in-arms, and admire your success.

    I started with a few thousand dollars in the 80's and currently trade several million dollars in a dozen accounts. Few small traders conquer the scale up problem. I am still struggling with it today.
  383. Good to hear your story. Pretty inspiring.

    I am still refining the rules on my acceleration model. The initial assumption, if you check the levels and sizes, is that a 100% loss on an option position is possible, but that should set my account back by just one level. That assumes of course that the trades are consecutive, and preferably initiated on different days ( I am finding out to my chagrin that decision could be biased on a given day - I need the calmness of overnight to re-adjust). Unfortunately trades are not always consecutive, and I am having to deal with the risk of multiple position exposure.
  384. Period Update for May (04/30/2016 - 06/04/2016) (5 weeks)

    Awful month, down 95k (29.6%). Gave back everything made last month.

    Stunning descent from the lofty heights attained last month. The flaw with my acceleration/deceleration model is just laid bare. Last month ramped up from 4% to 11% on option trades by end of month. Then began the sequence of losing trades on that high leverage. May 5th was the biggest losing day. It didn't get better the rest of the month. Leverage is back to 4% for option trades as I rework the rules.

    Took out 20k from prior month's gains - before the losses for the month set in.

    Opening Balance:                	318,953
    Net loss for period 		        (94,542)
    Cash Withdrawal				(20,000)
    Net Balance:                   		204,411
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 6/04/2016)
    Opening Balance:                       203,449
    Net gain		    	        30,962 (Up 15%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (30,000)
    Net Balance			       204,411
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    STOCK	2016-05-02-12-29-47	-3142.6
    STOCK	2016-05-02-11-05-39	-2148.1
    OPTION	2016-05-02-12-28-53	-3081.7
    STOCK	2016-05-02-15-30-49	4438.3
    OPTION	2016-05-02-15-03-33	4282.5
    STOCK	2016-05-02-15-49-36	-1296.6
    STOCK	2016-05-03-15-55-19	-526.6
    OPTION	2016-05-03-15-45-15	-5923.1
    STOCK	2016-05-03-11-06-36	1565
    STOCK	2016-05-03-15-55-20	-2453.5
    OPTION	2016-05-03-15-48-42	478.7
    STOCK	2016-05-03-13-39-53	-4383.4
    STOCK	2016-05-03-15-49-39	-4355.5
    STOCK	2016-05-04-15-48-23	-6057.4
    OPTION	2016-05-04-15-44-30	16011.7
    STOCK	2016-05-05-10-03-57	-1385.3
    OPTION	2016-05-05-10-45-15	-25528
    STOCK	2016-05-05-15-23-23	-9474
    OPTION	2016-05-05-10-03-33	161.1
    OPTION	2016-05-05-15-24-33	-31401.1
    STOCK	2016-05-06-09-39-09	2311.2
    STOCK	2016-05-06-10-15-46	1638.6
    OPTION	2016-05-06-13-56-02	5160.7
    STOCK	2016-05-09-09-52-00	2239.8
    OPTION	2016-05-09-10-04-51	3727.4
    OPTION	2016-05-09-09-37-35	-5668.3
    STOCK	2016-05-09-15-06-59	-21301.6
    STOCK	2016-05-10-09-39-29	-817
    OPTION	2016-05-10-10-35-35	-1034.9
    OPTION	2016-05-10-13-40-31	570.3
    STOCK	2016-05-10-15-35-43	317.7
    OPTION	2016-05-10-15-34-07	2088.6
    STOCK	2016-05-11-09-53-25	-73
    STOCK	2016-05-11-10-22-12	4679
    OPTION	2016-05-11-10-11-56	-3034.1
    OPTION	2016-05-11-10-21-24	7263.9
    OPTION	2016-05-11-15-50-00	-58.7
    STOCK	2016-05-11-15-49-19	329.8
    STOCK	2016-05-12-15-33-11	1859.1
    STOCK	2016-05-12-09-33-42	-1200.7
    STOCK	2016-05-12-10-06-14	-2468.3
    STOCK	2016-05-12-10-37-27	582.8
    STOCK	2016-05-12-15-36-21	-611.3
    OPTION	2016-05-12-15-48-44	644.7
    STOCK	2016-05-12-15-52-16	619.1
    STOCK	2016-05-12-10-35-56	223.4
    STOCK	2016-05-13-11-24-34	-11563.9
    OPTION	2016-05-13-11-35-23	-5648
    STOCK	2016-05-16-10-40-58	2111.9
    OPTION	2016-05-16-11-01-53	3989.1
    STOCK	2016-05-17-15-01-12	-2919.5
    STOCK	2016-05-18-09-43-31	824.8
    OPTION	2016-05-18-10-24-21	1411.4
    OPTION	2016-05-18-09-35-14	37.9
    STOCK	2016-05-19-10-13-56	-5045.4
    OPTION	2016-05-19-15-36-37	-74.9
    OPTION	2016-05-19-10-16-08	-8081.3
    STOCK	2016-05-20-10-38-49	2237.3
    STOCK	2016-05-20-10-34-47	1441.2
    STOCK	2016-05-20-09-49-24	-1016.1
    STOCK	2016-05-23-10-14-20	-807.8
    STOCK	2016-05-23-11-02-41	-1816.3
    STOCK	2016-05-24-10-22-10	1606.5
    STOCK	2016-05-24-10-22-38	1977
    STOCK	2016-05-25-12-52-34	7116.8
    STOCK	2016-05-25-15-01-08	-3812.3
    STOCK	2016-05-25-13-24-07	216.1
    STOCK	2016-05-26-10-16-02	-150.5
    OPTION	2016-05-26-11-42-26	2371.6
    STOCK	2016-05-26-11-44-31	1471.6
    STOCK	2016-05-27-10-21-35	-2398.9
    STOCK	2016-05-27-09-52-45	2872.3
    STOCK	2016-05-27-10-27-40	-1112.7
    OPTION	2016-05-27-10-07-41	-1494.5
    OPTION	2016-05-27-10-30-59	2943.7
    STOCK	2016-05-31-12-21-53	583.3
    OPTION	2016-06-01-15-58-46	-1088.5
    STOCK	2016-06-01-09-51-32	-1274.3
    OPTION	2016-06-01-10-53-49	-4731.5
    STOCK	2016-06-02-10-47-02	-1011.1
    OPTION	2016-06-03-09-52-20	2261
    STOCK	2016-06-02-10-47-12	259.3
    Option Levels fo MC trades
    lvl	MinBal	Perc	 
    0      <200000	0.02	 
    1	200000  0.04    
    2	210970  0.05   
    3	226266  0.07    
    4	248066  0.09    
    5	280061  0.11     
    6	328910  0.15  
    7	407608  0.19  
    8	544199  0.25  
  385. I have been following your journal from the very beginning and I was a fan. A few times I posted expressing my admiration for you and for posting your performance no matter what. You were inspiring but not anymore for me, ( not that you have to inspire me or any other of your readers, but since you are posting on a public forum allow me to express a harsh critic for once.

    I have been in your position ( losing a lot of money ) I don't like to be harsh with someone who just lost money, and hope that somehow my comment will have a positive effect for you instead of a negative one but it seems that it has been a while since you trade like a gambler.

    Last year you had a good performance about 100% on your account, yet you lost it before the end of the year. This year you had a great start and yet gave it all back. Losing money is part of this job, we get it, but how can you give it ALL back, A-L-L back again and again ?

    Out of the money you made ( was it 200k ? ) between last year and this year maybe you could have kept 100k, 50k, 35k but nothing at all ?

    Are you so taken by your trading that you forget how to give value to 100k or you just don't care ? You had it and now it's ALL gone. Do you give any value to the time you spend trading or researching ? There are places to go, thing to do and people to meet And what about your feeling that keeps on going up and down ? How can you be psychologically sound to trade ? Obviously that is the last of your problems.

    I will repeat what I wrote you before one last time: I would kindly suggest to be more of a trader and less of a gambler.

    If you keep doing exactly what you are doing maybe one day you will break to 1 million and everyone will be like ... wow look at Neke the best trader ever...but it will be just like a lucky guy who gets out of a Las Vegas casino after a huge win. I'll still have zero interest in being a gambler. Why ? Because with your ways after you make 1 million you will give it all back.

    Why bother, there are 99 more pleasant things you can do with your life. Your money will stay the same just like after all your gambling. If you really have to gamble go to Vegas take your family to enjoy the restaurants, the pool, the shows. It will be more rewarding.

    I'd like to believe that you can do much better than being a total gambler.
  386. Neke didn't lose all his money. He is up 30K this year, he is on pace to make 70K this year, more than what most people make doing things much more boring, soul-sucking, and time consuming than trading. And guess what? he has taken out exactly 30K, so he has taken out his profits. His profits are NOT all gone, unless you think the last 2 months are the only thing that matter.

    Before you criticize neke, why don't you look at how much money you have made over the last 10 years trading, and compare it to him. Trading is a long term game, not a short term one. neke has a volatile, yet proven track record of success. And he has a full time job. He is one of the last people you need to worry about on ET.

    He is outperforming 99% of the people here, and is in the top 1% in honesty on this forum. If you are looking for lies and smooth equity curves, go look for Karen the Supertrader. If you are looking for the rough realities of the road to success in trading, look for neke.

  387. He's been doing this since 2007...I don't think he needs your advice or is looking for it. He gives you updates...come and observe and leave...don't try to be a hero and convince others on your way of living. Oh, you're investing diligently and diversifying your portfolio? Congrats on the 10% return. Neke's not here for 10% return...okay?
  388. Neke's compounded rate of return since 2007 has been roughly 20% a year.

    That is great, but too low for what he is happy with.

    The reason why his return is so 'low' is because he gives back so much money when he loses (plus he doesnt compound profits, he takes out most of his profits and doesnt allow his account to compound, even though he has a day job to cover his living expenses).

    If he had aimed for 50% yearly returns (and not removed any profits), over 10 years he would have made $5million instead of just 1/10th of that much.

    Instead he seems to want to make 50%+ a month. So he ends up with just 20% a year with a high risk of ruin to boot.


    Neke wrote that he once turned 15K to almost 150K in one year.
    But it is relatively easy to make 1000% on 15K.
    Much much harder to turn 150K to 1.5Million in just one year.

    Why, after all these years of trying, doesnt he get that?
  389. He hasn't gone bust in 10 years, and he resizes smaller after drawdown, so I don't know why you would call that a high risk of ruin.

    On the one hand you say he shouldn't have withdrawn profits from his account, so he can compound his gains trading bigger, yet on the other hand you say its much much harder to turn 150k to 1.5 mil.

    Don't think neke is trading such size that he is facing big slippage on his orders, 150k to 1.5 mill will not be difficult because of liquidity and size concerns. Now 1.5mil to 15 mil in a year is a different story.
  390. You can't know that, neke hasn't revealed any data so you're just guessing how much liquidity there is for his style. Many strategies will have trouble with his position sizes. Even if there is plenty of liquidity, bad execution will cause constant slippage that he might or might not have included in his plan. Slippage analysis should be a process done regularly.

    Southall's point as I understood was that neke's position sizing is ridiculous, he is entirely correct regarding the risk of ruin. Now it only takes one more bad month for him to lose portfolio margin (I recall him using PM) meaning he will have less leverage and less chance of coming out from the hole.
  391. if you wanna make 100% +, then you have to be ok with 25%+ drawdowns. Painful but if u don't like it, take up knitting.

    Neke, u r doing ok. Keep going, man!
  392. Neke has said in the past that he reckons he could potentially take 400K to 4million in one year.
    So from that i infer his strategy is scalable to making at least a few million per year.

    Neke could be the worlds best trader, or at least make six/seven figures every year, if he aimed to make between 50% to 100% a year, instead of trying to do that every month.

    At the moment he is averaging 'just' 50K a year. He can do much better than that.
    Those on here who are approving of his trading style (constant big risks for big rewards) are really just encouraging a poorer long term trading style.
  393. Southall,
    I feel so belittled by your rate of return I am forced to bring out the facts :) . From your calculation, if someone has 100K, made exactly 100K and pulled all that out each year, after 10 years he will be still at 100K balance, and you would say his compounded rate of return is 0%. Harsh!

    Form 2007 (start of journal) till end of last year, I started with 76K, made 751k, withdrew 624K, finishing with a balance of 203K. I have tabulated the annual performance and withdrawals below, and here are my calculations.

    Average annual rate = 88% (average of the return%)
    Compounded Annual Rate = 65% (factor in timing of cash movement - I assume they were withdrawn end of each year, rate should be higher if we assume middle of year)

    It's hard getting a fair compounded annual growth rate when the volatility in performance is high, and there are withdrawals. To me it is like solving for two variables - annual rate of return (x%), and retention rate (y%), such that at the end of the period, the total withdrawal comes to the amount withdrawn (624K), and the balance on account comes to the final balance of 203K. Using excel, I find that rate to be about 65% annual with about 20% retention. So I have actually been pulling out the bulk of my gains (apologies to guy990opl).Have I been taking out too much? Well I leave that to southall and guy990opl to find a compromise.

    From            To              StartingBalance                 Net P&L         Return%          Net Cash Movement      Closing Balance
    Feb 28 2007     Jan 12 2008              76,000                 138,000             182                  (111,000)              103,000
    Jan 12 2008     Jan 11 2009             103,000                 377,000             366                  (160,000)              320,00  
    Jan 11 2009     Jan 10 2010             320,000                 210,000              65                  (120,000)              410,000
    Jan 10 2010     Jan  9 2011             410,000                 (44,000)            (11)                  (30,000)              336,000
    Jan 10 2011     Jan 17 2012             336,000                (121,271)            (36)                  (11,000)              203,729
    Jan 17 2012     Jan  6 2013             203,729                 (61,573)            (30)                  (59,000)               83,156
    Jan  6 2013     Jan  4 2014              83,156                 45,281               54                   (27,400)              101,037
    Jan  4 2014     Jan  3 2015             101,037                 197,562             195                   (42,500)              256,099
    Jan  3 2015     Jan  1 2016             256,099                  10,350               4                   (63,000)              203,449
  394. I certainly don't want to be critiquing another trader who I know nothing about, nor his method, but I do think this is accurate. If a given month can be up 100k or down 100k, then this could just as easily be up or down 500k or even 1mil.

    Very quickly looking over the trades for last month, there are big hits of -31k, -21k, -14k and hardly any wins that are in order of this same magnitude. It seems to be to be simple statistics that if the average loss is so much bigger than the average win, you need an incredibly high win rate because a few losses can wipe you out in no time.

    All of this just gets so much more dangerous if things are scaled up, so I do have to agree that for long term trading, this will be deadly.

  395. I used 91K starting account (January 2007) and my own estimate of your profits (500/600K) and it came to cira 20%.

    Your CAGR return on your 2007 starting investment is about 25% when i use your correct profit figures (750k).

    ie. 91K starting capital compounding 25% p/a makes 750K profit after 10 years.
  396. Again, it is wrong to calculate rate of return without factoring in timing of withdrawals. From your perspective, for the example I gave (making 100K each year and pulling all out with 100K), after ten years your rate would be 27%, after 20 years, it comes down to 17%. No, it is 100% per year all the way.

    You can't assume all money must be preserved to be relevant in determining compound rate of return. Besides 100K pulled out in year 1 does not equal the same amount pulled out in year 10
  397. Sad to lose an admirer. When did that happen? Maybe I could post statistics from then to see if I can win you back :)
  398. Why don't you worry about your trading and let Neke do what he does? Okay.
  399. Don't worry about Neke's progress or trading. Worry about your own. If he needs help, he will let us know. You do you. Neke will do what he does. Okay?
  400. 2 stats without comment:

    1. Neke's last 19 months performance is -20K.

    2. He said the goal for 2016 was 100K, that was achieved last month by being up YTD 125K.
  401. Yes one is the compounding rate, which falls over time if your profits stay constant.

    The other is the simple rate, which stays constant if your profits stay constant.

    Still keep up the good work, neke, you are averaging 75K a year, which is very good. But i think you could do even better if you calmed things down a bit.
  402. I trade full time and over the last 10 years I made just enough to keep trading.

    Not sure why you feel the need to turn my comment into a pissing contest. I tried to make a comment as kindly as possible. Criticizing is fine since we are here and I was not rude yet if you feel like you want to be his bodyguard ( for no reasons ) and go on personal attacks. You are hijacking his thread. And by the way last year he was up 100% on his account and how did he end up ?

    I am not trying to convince anyone you and your buddy Marketowl need to get a life. I just made a comment. The end. By the way it is interesting you mention a 10% return, last year I made 9% and I am very happy. With that 9% I can buy the time to do whatever I want to. I hope you do the same, no need to be so angry. This is about trading nothing else.

    Not that you wanted to, but Thank you for getting my point. That's why I wrote my comment.
  403. Guy it was a douchey post, accept it and move on.
  404. This is the best journal on all of ET. Only guy to keep it 100% no matter what the result. One of Muhammad Ali's quotes can sum you up. "He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life."
    I wouldn't be shocked to see him up $200K for end of June. The ability for this man to bounce back from big down months is what makes him a champion.
  405. It was not, get over it. If I told you I made exactly zilc (nada, zero) in the last one and half year, what would you do? Would you be cheering for me, or would you criticize my performance?

    This is a public journal, so unless you just want to circlejerk and "keep it up Neke, it will be better next month", how about to take some honest criticism like a man and not crying about it?

    One thing about trading is that it is hard to sugarcoat or bullshit performance. So let me repeat the FACT for you: Neke didn't make a dime in the last 19 months.
  406. Shouldn't u be bitching back in the topstep thread?
  407. Did I beat your ass in that thread too?

    Or are you subconsciously trying to suggest to Neke that he should stop wasting his own money and sign up with TST? That is just mean, man, I mean child...


    Anyhow, at this point I would suggest to Neke to switch to quarterly reporting...
  408. Let's not take Neke's thread off topic. If you want to argue...PM each other.
  409. 25% p/a since 2007, through the 2008/09 period, is an outstanding return in any book, I can't find any hedge funds with that good a return.

    And, since he took out his profits, did not reinvest and compound them, it is even more impressive. The ups and downs of his returns indicated he is not faking it like Karen or Madoff.

    If your calculation is correct, this guy is incredible.
  410. Yes 25% a year is a great return.

    However neke does have 50%+ drawdowns to.

    So that ruins his track record, i think he has the skill to do it the other way and make 50%+ a year compounded with max 25% drawdowns, which would be truly incredible.
  411. Neke, I had contacted you on June 4 via PM.
    Have you read my mail? It would be polite if you could give at least a short reply. Thx.
  412. It's not polite to subdue someone for something. Respect his silence.
  413. Hey man, if you send someone an important mail, then it is normal that one at least would be sure the recipient has got the mail, so after more than a week waiting I politely asked him if he got it, to exclude the possibility of a mail system bug... I had invested some time to formulate my mail, and it is for me somehow important what I wrote him.
    And: I'm a long-time "follower" of him (since at least 2012 under different id), if that makes a difference... :D
  414. No worry XD
  415. Period Update for June (06/04/2016 - 07/02/2016) (4 weeks)

    Another mournful month, down 20K (9.6%).

    Opening Balance:   204,411
    Net loss for period   (19,726)
    Net Balance:   184,685
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 7/02/2016)
    Opening Balance:  203,449
    Net gain    11,236 (Up 6%)
    Cash Withdrawal  (30,000)
    Net Balance  184,685
    TYPE Exit Date/Time P/L
    STOCK 2016-06-06-15-49-12 1560.8
    STOCK 2016-06-07-10-30-11 -4866.6
    OPTION 2016-06-07-11-03-21 -2981.5
    STOCK 2016-06-08-09-34-51 -2205.2
    OPTION 2016-06-08-11-21-46 -720.9
    STOCK 2016-06-08-11-20-32 -7310.6
    STOCK 2016-06-08-12-22-05 2271.5
    OPTION 2016-06-08-15-55-11 6851.6
    STOCK 2016-06-08-13-01-45 2992.8
    STOCK 2016-06-09-12-23-04 -595.6
    STOCK 2016-06-09-11-53-23 1088.4
    OPTION 2016-06-09-09-32-22 -641.1
    OPTION 2016-06-09-12-43-12 -6893.4
    STOCK 2016-06-09-14-52-44 -1380.3
    OPTION 2016-06-09-14-52-19 -5478.9
    STOCK 2016-06-10-15-13-14 -1894.4
    STOCK 2016-06-10-15-10-31 -745.8
    OPTION 2016-06-10-15-08-24 -9746.2
    OPTION 2016-06-13-14-05-35 2691.6
    STOCK 2016-06-13-10-41-21 1243.6
    OPTION 2016-06-14-09-44-22 928.3
    STOCK 2016-06-14-15-30-42 1610.1
    OPTION 2016-06-14-09-43-23 -677.6
    OPTION 2016-06-14-15-57-37 -765.6
    STOCK 2016-06-16-15-55-15 -3370.3
    OPTION 2016-06-16-14-12-17 3811.3
    OPTION 2016-06-16-13-31-10 2524.8
    OPTION 2016-06-17-13-19-24 -110.9
    OPTION 2016-06-17-15-18-36 831.4
    STOCK 2016-06-23-14-24-24 2832.7
    STOCK 2016-06-23-15-49-14 -544
    STOCK 2016-06-24-12-00-10 2893.3
    OPTION 2016-06-24-10-55-52 11871.8
    STOCK 2016-06-24-15-16-39 -987.1
    STOCK 2016-06-27-14-48-47 -15.5
    STOCK 2016-06-27-14-43-53 -2041
    OPTION 2016-06-27-14-14-25 -4961.3
    OPTION 2016-06-27-14-14-56 -2514.5
    OPTION 2016-06-27-09-56-11 -588.3
    OPTION 2016-06-27-14-24-13 -61.3
    STOCK 2016-06-29-10-08-01 -8576.1
    STOCK 2016-07-01-09-47-31 332.7
    OPTION 2016-07-01-09-52-37 4609.2
  416. For most traders 10% loss in a month would be at the high end of expected losses.
    When we see it in your account it seems low.
  417. Are these below what you are referring to? Sorry, but I didn't think they were worth replying to.

  418. Unbelievable! I'm really speechless how my private communication has been made public!...
  419. Selling naked calls in healthcare names is considered riskless?
  420. Aren't you excited to have your offer open to all?
  421. No, I am not. Would you be? Ah, I forgot, you as someone without any morals don't care...
    Ok, I'm done. Bye.
  422. This guy is a fraud.
    They ain't like being naked.
    You made him the greatest good.
  423. It's moral to report fraudulent member.
    You're the one without ethics.
    Impolite in addition...
    & egocentric.
  424. So what is here the long term plan? I looked the numbers up, and you made about 45K since 2010. So 45K in 66 months that is about $700 monthly profit, but if your next month is a 20-30K loser, you basicly didn't make money in the last 5.5 years.

    Have you ever thought of just writing covered calls on bigger steady stocks? You would be the casino and let others gamble. It is not an exciting way to make money, but you could do 1.5-2% monthly with 1-2 hours of work per month. Now some of you might say, what is 2% a month for Neke and I say his 5 years average is less than 0.5% so that would be a 4 times improvement on his trading not to mention the extra hours not wasted on looking at charts and news.

    Just an idea... But even if you don't follow it, I am curious, what is your master plan to turn things around? Because whatever it has been, it is not working...
  425. You are picking a point near a very high previous equity peak.
    The results will always look bad if you do that.

    Either look at all the performance, since his trading started, or look from the most recent equity low, when neke's account was below 100K a few years ago.
    How much has he made since then, including all his recent withdrawals?

    Since Jan 2013 he has made around 250K.

    This works out to 70K a year and much closer to his long term average.
  426. neke.JPG

    This is neke's equity curve adding back in withdrawals. based on his figures in post 393
  427. It is interesting that he made most of his profits in the first 4 years (2007 to 2010), and from 2011 to 2016, there is not much increase in the wealth. Supposedly he gains much more experience and knows the market better after these years. I am not sure it is the market, or his strategy that contribute to the situation. Following his postings and monthly reports, one thing is sure that you never know next month will come out, either big profit or big loss or something else. There seems no pattern.
  428. OK how about the last 20 months? The result is a breakeven. Now if one doesn't make any money for 20 months, something is obviously up... His broker's profits, that is...

    I picked 2010 because that is when the losses started and even the 2013 very good year only brought it back slightly into the green and 2014 and 2015 were lucklusters. But again, if we look at the previous 20 months and not calendar years, there is no profit whatsoever...

    And you are only as good as your last few months/years. Nobody cares that you were good once back in the stoneage...


    That being said, I want to know what he is hoping for, what change would turn things around? It looks like that 2013 excellent year was an outlier, and not the norm. Now if we add the countless hours wasted and stress what has to take a tool on him, the quesion is, is it worth it for $700 per month? Time is something you will never get back and there are way simpler ways to make that little money per month...
  429. post your results from the last couple of years before you judge someone else's
  430. Oh, genius had to chime in. So only people with 30% or better average can post in this thread?
    Was I judging or was I posting facts? I hate this "everybody is a winner" generation...

    Post your average before you judge me. :)
  431. Neke had 3 good years followed by 3 bad years followed by 3 ok years where he made up for the 3 bad years.

    No reason for him to give up or say any time has been wasted.
    He could easily make anywhere between 100K to 500K over the next 3 years.
    Or alternatively he could spin his wheels and make nothing, but i think the odds of that are less.
  432. Why are you afraid to post your results? And yet you don't hesitate to critique others. :rolleyes:
  433. Come on, most people on ET can't even sniff neke's jock when it comes to overall money made in the markets. Making 800k trading over 10 years while also having a full time job is in the 99th percentile of all traders. But you will get the small sample size overanalyzing from the trolls like Pekelo who get their kicks criticizing others because their own sad lives have nothing going on and their own trading is subpar.
  434. That is another way to look at it, but I am sure he isn't happy with the recent performance. Also if you just make up for the losing years, then all those years aren't really productive. Making 8K per year on a 200K average account size is better than nothing but hardly satisfactory.

    So instead of arguing with guys like that Recession fella (promptly put on ignore), who wants to sing Kumbaya and hold each other hands and hope everything is going to be alright, I just want to know what Neke's master plan is for turning things around?
  435. As everbody witnessed, a month ago I had offered my sincere help to Neke, but unfortunately he got me wrong and disappointed me beyond imaginable... :-(
  436. You're severely underestimating Neke's intelligence. It's only a question of time when you will lose all your capital with the method you use.
  437. @d08
    you shouldn't be able to quote my posting... unless you use 2 accounts... :)
  438. What in the world are you talking about?
  439. Is marshman botpro?
  440. pekelo is worried about other people's money because he doesn't have any of his own apparently
  441. marsman is neither marshman nor botpro or whatever.
  442. May I remind you of the motto of ET:
    "EliteTrader.com is a group of financial traders that help each other work through the tough and lonely journey of trading profitably. Our members learn faster, develop new relationships, and avoid costly mistakes through daily collaboration."

    ...to boldly go where many have gone before... :D
  443. You're such a pesky killjoy.

    One thing you got right though: from Jan 2010 till date, I have paid $305,680 in commission to my broker - they got way more than me. Put all that back - not to mention slippage - and the performance could have been nice - if not great.
  444. I have just listened to an interview with the legendary Dan Zanger, and I see lots of parallels between his and Neke's approach to trading and their results:

    Quick recap: Zanger inherited 100K and in the early 90s he run that up to 440K profits. (That would be Neke's 2004-2009 good years). Then in 6 years he lost it all back. (That is similar to Neke's 2010-2012) Then came the famous run to the gazillion % returns. (If we are optimists, this is still ahead of Neke) And eventually a 70% loss. (42 mins in the video when he lost 20 million in a few days)

    Other similarities: Zanger also had a full time job through the 90s, while he was trading. Both men seems to be lacking in money management, but maybe that is a requirement for outsized returns...

    So depends on where one stands, we can look at Zanger's record as inspirational or as a cautionary tale. Did he have a long term winning strategy or was he just lucky with giant brass balls in the right place at the right time with crazy money management?

    But there is a reason why he has been selling a newsletter for the last 12 years (hey 500K+ profits annually!) and no real trading record on his website from the last decade.

    Oh, but I am a killjoy again, so let me finish with the expected weather I mean profit forecast:

    It is sunny with a strong possibility of money raining...


  445. Neke,

    My last post has some merit but it wasn't accurate, you have a good sense of humor. I am a fan again.


    you must be young, naïve or both. The Elite Trader motto sounds great and that's all there is to it. Maybe in time you'll realize that almost always this is a journey you walk alone.

    You offer "successful trades to others ", really ?

    If you are, you should ask for a compensation ( like the vast majority of lame financial advices ) or it sounds too good to be true.

    Better yet,...when there is a good trade go ahead and take it yourself.

    Certainly you could collaborate in a general sense, but when it comes down to pulling the trigger you are alone. One bad mistake for a trader is to listen to other people " tips". Maybe you understand why such an offer to help is not taken seriously.

    And you got soo offended ! Lol

    There is little learning here, the biggest value is entertainment, and you proved it.
  446. I warned you many times in the past that using options instead of the underlying would increase your trading costs. With portfolio margin or margin from a prop firm, you can mimic the leverage effect you get from options. The advantage is that you wont pay bigger spreads from the options and you can actually spread out your orders inteligently and save a great deal of money
  447. If u guys keep being so damn weird to Neke he's gonna end up leaving like so many quality ET posters have over the years. Leave the guy alone. Geez.
  449. Don't worry I'm on my way. Cheers to u and all the other idiots here.
  450. This thread is a perfect example of the vaginas we have posting here. I don't know neke from anywhere but if he is posting his trades then it is super pussy of people to jump all over him like a Monday morning QB and tell him his method sucks or he loses too much money or whatever other queefy discharge oozes out of your ass cracks you mistake for an intelligent opinion.

    If you bukkake on a cookie eating tampons think you are a much smarter paper trader than scream "I am great" while you glaze your own knuckles in the back of your Prius. What fucks are given if you think you can do it better or he is doing it so wrong. It is not your fucking greenbacks at risk nor is your vaginal discharge of an input helping.
  451. Why don't you tell us how you REALLY feel? Or even better, why don't you show us a post of yours in this thread when you actually contributed to the thread? Oh you haven't? Then why do you bother posting here? Neke is a big boy, he can take a little criticism without you crying about it.

    Man, (and I mean pussyboy) and you have the audacity to call others vaginas? Anyhow, sorry for the interruption but I hate offtopic crybabies....
  452. You seem to be taking some sort of joy in pissing on Neke about not making money so your input is just as weak and vapid. I cannot find any posts of yours either that is truly useful to Neke or any trader except to stroke your own ego. I am sure stroking your own things is the best you can do but find someone else who thinks you pissing on Neke here is useful and I will go away.

  453. Period Update for July (07/02/2016 - 07/31/2016) (4 weeks)

    Yet another bad month, down 5K (2.8%).

    At one point it seemed there was a conspiracy against me. It would all be quiet on a stock. Once I got in, the market couldn't run fast enough against me. LONG - same, SHORT - same thing. Subsided a bit last one week, and pared the losses. I know it's crazy, but that's just how it felt.

    Opening Balance:     184,685
    Net loss for period       (5,231)
    Net Balance:       179,454
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 7/31/2016)
    Opening Balance:  203,449
    Net gain          6,005 (Up 3%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (30,000)
    Net Balance        179,454
    TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L
    OPTION   2016-07-05-15-05-15   -3885.3
    STOCK   2016-07-06-13-07-44   2200.8
    STOCK   2016-07-06-15-49-14   300.8
    STOCK   2016-07-07-14-01-12   2074.9
    OPTION   2016-07-07-12-53-40   -3465.5
    STOCK   2016-07-07-09-56-33   -37.6
    STOCK   2016-07-08-14-40-27   2712
    OPTION   2016-07-08-14-31-28   1479.7
    STOCK   2016-07-11-15-51-24   -744.4
    STOCK   2016-07-11-09-31-21   45.4
    STOCK   2016-07-11-15-50-52   -2313.3
    STOCK   2016-07-12-15-55-14   -788.1
    STOCK   2016-07-12-15-49-14   2078.5
    STOCK   2016-07-12-15-49-14   -1079.1
    STOCK   2016-07-14-09-35-13   -457.7
    STOCK   2016-07-14-09-59-39   -1116.2
    OPTION   2016-07-14-09-58-23   -4446
    STOCK   2016-07-15-11-52-52   1704.4
    STOCK   2016-07-15-15-49-12   793.8
    STOCK   2016-07-19-10-33-52   -271
    OPTION   2016-07-19-13-24-27   -1233.8
    STOCK   2016-07-20-15-55-18   740
    OPTION   2016-07-21-15-04-19   -191
    STOCK   2016-07-20-15-55-17   -6064.4
    STOCK   2016-07-21-15-55-14   471.9
    OPTION   2016-07-25-00-00-01   -4530
    STOCK   2016-07-22-15-29-34   -6301
    STOCK   2016-07-22-11-09-22   1145
    OPTION   2016-07-22-15-55-13   1637.9
    STOCK   2016-07-26-11-51-40   -2807.1
    OPTION   2016-07-26-10-56-15   132
    OPTION   2016-07-26-15-49-18   1283.7
    STOCK   2016-07-27-10-13-45   413.2
    OPTION   2016-07-27-10-41-25   2392.3
    OPTION   2016-07-27-11-40-00   -2021.2
    OPTION   2016-07-27-14-24-55   3361.1
    STOCK   2016-07-28-09-52-11   -4.9
    STOCK   2016-07-28-13-49-56   1881.2
    OPTION   2016-07-28-11-27-27   2632.7
    OPTION   2016-07-29-10-19-44   2257.3
    STOCK   2016-07-28-10-39-53   1941.9
    OPTION   2016-07-29-10-04-50   -749.2
    OPTION   2016-07-29-09-37-27   4034.6
    OPTION   2016-07-29-10-37-03   -439.6
  454. Come on, Neke!
    I wouldn't call 2,8% down "another bad month".
    There were times you made very bad decisions when things went against you.
    Seems like you stuck to your plan; so well done!
  455. Period Update for July (07/31/2016 - 09/03/2016) (5 weeks)

    Fantastic month, up 106K (59%).

    Great month of upward cruise. Win rate was 64%, and impressive results from my options trading, as every thing I touched there almost always turned golden within a short time. One of my reworked strategies has delivered a stream of good results. It looks very promising, and I hope it keeps delivering.

    The initial option sizes were small (3 or 4%) in accordance with my acceleration formula - I will be looking to increase % size now as the account increases (the levels and acceleration rules have been reworked slightly from the earlier one posted).

    Opening Balance:     179,454
    Net gain for period       105,663
    Net Balance:       285,117
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 09/03/2016)
    Opening Balance:  203,449
    Net gain          111,668 (Up 55%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (30,000)
    Net Balance        285,117
    TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L
    STOCK   2016-08-01-09-32-33   -144.7
    STOCK   2016-08-02-09-37-12   -262.4
    STOCK   2016-08-02-15-49-13   -1159.2
    OPTION   2016-08-02-15-50-01   -3027.5
    STOCK   2016-08-02-15-49-13   74.4
    OPTION   2016-08-02-11-25-01   1279.9
    STOCK   2016-08-02-15-49-13   131.4
    STOCK   2016-08-03-09-34-07   2862.8
    OPTION   2016-08-03-10-13-10   -3304.7
    OPTION   2016-08-03-14-19-18   -1081.6
    OPTION   2016-08-04-10-29-06   -2204.8
    STOCK   2016-08-04-10-12-51   3615.5
    STOCK   2016-08-04-15-49-55   -4
    OPTION   2016-08-04-15-11-23   -873
    OPTION   2016-08-05-12-53-18   3037.3
    OPTION   2016-08-09-10-00-10   2738.3
    STOCK   2016-08-09-15-55-16   -133.7
    STOCK   2016-08-10-11-08-51   1063.1
    OPTION   2016-08-10-11-00-32   3870.3
    STOCK   2016-08-10-09-57-22   98.2
    STOCK   2016-08-10-10-45-08   -2164.1
    STOCK   2016-08-11-14-31-03   4727.1
    OPTION   2016-08-11-14-34-47   3731.6
    OPTION   2016-08-12-10-42-04   2512.2
    STOCK   2016-08-12-10-31-59   2129.1
    STOCK   2016-08-15-12-38-59   -1374.1
    OPTION   2016-08-17-15-51-50   -9202.3
    STOCK   2016-08-17-09-35-02   -1625.8
    OPTION   2016-08-17-15-20-50   3394.1
    STOCK   2016-08-19-09-35-10   -1304.7
    OPTION   2016-08-19-15-47-37   1601.8
    STOCK   2016-08-22-09-50-20   2627.1
    STOCK   2016-08-23-15-55-13   2772
    OPTION   2016-08-24-10-32-18   5135.5
    STOCK   2016-08-24-13-58-59   -24.9
    STOCK   2016-08-25-10-05-44   4847.3
    STOCK   2016-08-25-10-41-19   -1147
    OPTION   2016-08-26-09-49-05   1945.2
    OPTION   2016-08-25-11-54-23   412.3
    STOCK   2016-08-26-10-16-22   1526.4
    OPTION   2016-08-26-11-35-04   4370.9
    STOCK   2016-08-26-15-30-27   1209.4
    OPTION   2016-08-26-15-29-17   931.9
    STOCK   2016-08-30-10-50-24   5730.5
    OPTION   2016-08-30-10-39-12   -1997.2
    OPTION   2016-08-31-11-28-13   3511.7
    OPTION   2016-08-31-15-59-09   7240.6
    STOCK   2016-08-31-14-27-46   5475.2
    STOCK   2016-09-01-10-34-43   -1642.5
    OPTION   2016-09-01-10-36-11   13522.9
    OPTION   2016-09-01-10-33-31   4687.3
    STOCK   2016-09-01-13-57-02   -4080.2
    OPTION   2016-09-01-15-56-25   20010.7
    STOCK   2016-09-02-14-44-00   4894.6
    STOCK   2016-09-02-09-45-46   3615.9
    OPTION   2016-09-02-09-45-53   11084.2
  456. Good for you man!

  457. Neke,

    Do you sell naked with options too or just buy?
  458. i dont sell, just buy
  459. I'm waiting for pekelo to say how your performance represents poor risk management and lack of edge.

    Or wait. You made money so the Monday morning quarterbacks will be on holiday.
  460. Especially when Monday is Labor Day this go around....LOL

    Love the volatility of Neke's P&L. I know it is not good for a traders mind set but he seems to have a way of dealing with it.
  461. Damn it! Got too used to the low-volatility.
  462. I don't think volatility is the issue since you don't sell options, it has something to do with the way you bet on mean reversions. This isn't your first massive loss from trying to fade a very strong move.
  463. You need a daily stop loss, 5% ideally but for your aggressive style probably 10% max.
    If your account is down 10% liquidate all positions and stop trading for the day.

    But i bet you cant do that as it would happen too often.

    Losing 30% of your account in one day is pretty insane. If that happens two or three times in a month, it could take you years to recover.
  464. Neke, it was only a two percent move. Were you long a ton of delta or did some spread trade widen or was it intraday trading?
  465. At this point you should just back Marsman. Make a partnership with him, you would be better off...
  466. Yes, long a number of calls on expiration day, and with big size - occasioned by my acceleration formula. Timing was very wrong, especially as I did not limit the position to one in accordance with acceleration rules. All the prior gains were like a bait that prodded me to be more aggressive, and when I did - whack!
  467. Didn't take long to hear from you, friend. Tell me of your partnership experience.

  468. I think we've all made that mistake at some point and we all probably will again.

    Sucks for the loss but knowing you, you will bounce back.
  469. My previous post in this thread was 2 months ago, so it actually took quite a while. I don't want to beat the guy who is down, so let's just wait for the end of month...

    About the partnership, Marsman's partner cleared 14K after 3 weeks, I would call it a pretty decent return, specially on only 10K risked... I figured a guy like you who doesn't mind to blow 80K a day, 10K is peanuts... Me and my silly ideas...
  470. Period Update for September (09/03/2016 - 10/01/2016) (4 weeks)

    Terrible month, down 86K (30%).

    After the big run-up last month, I could probably have foreseen a pull-back, but not on this scale. Started brilliantly with the momentum form last month, until the market collapse on Sep 9th posted earlier. Sudden 2.2% drop in the market after more than 3 months of never dropping 1%. caught me over-sized and over-committed.

    The rest of the month did no fare better, as mistakes and attempt to claw back the losses fast led to more losses. Hoping for better month next.
    Opening Balance:     285,117
    Net loss for period       (86,436)
    Net Balance:       198,681
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 10/01/2016)
    Opening Balance:  203,449
    Net gain          25,232 (Up 12%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (30,000)
    Net Balance        198,681
    TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L
    STOCK   2016-09-06-10-40-10   -913.2
    STOCK   2016-09-06-10-45-10   12723
    OPTION   2016-09-06-10-42-20   5751.5
    STOCK   2016-09-07-12-25-53   -3379.1
    STOCK   2016-09-07-09-40-46   3664
    STOCK   2016-09-07-09-53-35   10065.9
    OPTION   2016-09-07-10-05-32   29604
    OPTION   2016-09-07-14-39-33   -16309.2
    STOCK   2016-09-08-10-50-43   5682.8
    OPTION   2016-09-08-13-03-49   3237.3
    STOCK   2016-09-09-10-42-15   -3554.4
    STOCK   2016-09-09-15-12-14   -3316.2
    OPTION   2016-09-09-15-15-31   -32823.8
    OPTION   2016-09-09-10-40-10   -19777.6
    OPTION   2016-09-09-12-19-12   -23083.7
    OPTION   2016-09-09-15-26-06   -10141
    OPTION   2016-09-09-15-18-17   5308.5
    STOCK   2016-09-12-14-53-44   4303.2
    STOCK   2016-09-13-11-15-31   2638.6
    OPTION   2016-09-13-14-55-26   -2175.1
    OPTION   2016-09-19-10-01-08   8418.1
    STOCK   2016-09-15-15-55-52   -2597.4
    OPTION   2016-09-16-11-37-23   -11431.9
    STOCK   2016-09-16-12-13-19   2731.4
    OPTION   2016-09-16-12-30-25   10812.4
    OPTION   2016-09-16-15-31-24   -2982.6
    STOCK   2016-09-20-10-48-45   -17257.7
    OPTION   2016-09-20-14-33-41   -31398.6
    OPTION   2016-09-19-15-36-04   -2441.2
    STOCK   2016-09-19-15-49-13   -512.5
    STOCK   2016-09-20-14-34-06   2841.5
    STOCK   2016-09-20-15-48-59   820.3
    OPTION   2016-09-20-15-40-54   1104.7
    OPTION   2016-09-21-11-50-33   6355.5
    OPTION   2016-09-22-15-00-42   1547.2
    STOCK   2016-09-23-11-02-30   -955.8
    OPTION   2016-09-23-11-02-14   -6221.8
    OPTION   2016-09-26-15-31-03   -1489.2
    OPTION   2016-09-28-11-14-26   2519.7
    STOCK   2016-09-29-13-33-52   -1614.6
    STOCK   2016-09-29-10-01-05   2156.3
    OPTION   2016-09-29-13-33-32   -8415.6
    STOCK   2016-09-29-13-13-23   -1553.4
    OPTION   2016-09-29-13-12-55   -6166.3
    OPTION   2016-09-29-10-19-18   -16.7
    STOCK   2016-09-30-09-49-05   69.3
    OPTION   2016-09-30-11-14-21   1736.1
  471. Its 'only' a 30% loss. You will recover within six months.

    Neke what are your risk management rules?
    How much or your account do your risk per trade (or risk per group of correlated trades)?.
  472. What I risk is often different from what I intend to risk - as happened on that Sep 9th day. So its hard to pin the problem on risk level.

    I suppose that 'only' is being sarcastic.
  473. 30% for a terrible month is fine. I risk 6 to 25% per week ... Till you're in the game and make everything to stay in ... it's perfect. The problem being that the greatest losses are yet to come (Proverbial). Don't let the past weaken you but allow it to strengthen you ! Big Up !
  474. Accounting slightly differently, the last 2 months:

    7/1 - 8/7: up 163K

    8/8 - 8/30: down 120K
  475. Neke eats like an elephant and also shits like an elephant.

    Instead, he needs to shit like a bird, or at least like a dog.

  476. Is it possible to eat like an elephant and shit like a bird? Eat once and shit a thousand times?
  477. Going forward, can you show the PnL split between stocks & options?

    How many positions (stocks, options) do you have on at any one time? Ballpark
  478. Period Update for October (10/01/2016 - 11/05/2016) (5 weeks)

    Come-back month, up 82K (41%).

    Well not quite all of it, but a good chunk of the loss last month. Earnings season played its part, for which I am grateful. Now need to be extra cautious to avoid going the way of last month.

    Opening Balance:     198,681
    Net gain for period       81,915
    Cash Withdrawal          (5,000)
    Net Balance:       275,596
    For the Thread Year 2016 (1/1/2016 - 10/01/2016)
    Opening Balance:  203,449
    Net gain          107,147 (Up 53%)
    Cash Withdrawal        (35,000)
    Net Balance        275,596
    TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L
    OPTION   2016-10-04-11-07-33   3970
    OPTION   2016-10-04-15-51-39   3304.6
    STOCK   2016-10-04-09-50-37   -116.5
    STOCK   2016-10-05-12-21-47   -811.6
    STOCK   2016-10-05-14-33-41   -5833.5
    OPTION   2016-10-05-11-14-06   3948.8
    STOCK   2016-10-05-10-28-26   57.3
    STOCK   2016-10-06-14-54-34   1123.3
    OPTION   2016-10-06-12-14-10   7310.5
    STOCK   2016-10-06-11-57-06   1813.7
    OPTION   2016-10-07-09-47-56   -294.6
    OPTION   2016-10-07-10-08-46   -513.7
    OPTION   2016-10-10-11-24-35   6731.3
    STOCK   2016-10-07-15-49-14   -619.6
    STOCK   2016-10-11-11-52-04   -3113.6
    OPTION   2016-10-11-11-47-13   -10794.4
    STOCK   2016-10-12-14-26-59   -3135.8
    STOCK   2016-10-12-11-22-01   -5359
    OPTION   2016-10-12-13-31-43   -7114
    STOCK   2016-10-12-15-49-20   -376.9
    STOCK   2016-10-17-09-54-45   2191.4
    OPTION   2016-10-17-09-51-52   6466.9
    STOCK   2016-10-17-15-49-13   -1349.6
    OPTION   2016-10-18-14-31-37   -4062.9
    OPTION   2016-10-18-15-59-46   -8955.6
    STOCK   2016-10-19-10-34-16   -1523.9
    OPTION   2016-10-19-10-34-31   -5143.6
    STOCK   2016-10-19-14-56-21   -3014.4
    STOCK   2016-10-20-10-00-37   2563.3
    STOCK   2016-10-20-11-25-56   1597.6
    STOCK   2016-10-20-15-55-22   4448.2
    OPTION   2016-10-20-09-58-03   12216.7
    OPTION   2016-10-20-10-36-59   2529.4
    OPTION   2016-10-21-10-27-08   6043.8
    STOCK   2016-10-21-12-09-38   1150.6
    STOCK   2016-10-25-09-59-23   2871
    STOCK   2016-10-25-11-24-43   1645.6
    OPTION   2016-10-25-09-41-56   9967.8
    OPTION   2016-10-25-11-53-35   515
    STOCK   2016-10-26-11-09-36   3320.7
    STOCK   2016-10-26-12-35-59   -1065.5
    OPTION   2016-10-26-11-13-47   5647.5
    OPTION   2016-10-26-11-04-27   -6343.3
    STOCK   2016-10-27-11-27-58   859.5
    OPTION   2016-10-27-11-57-28   18720.8
    STOCK   2016-10-27-15-49-13   -817.8
    OPTION   2016-10-27-10-14-13   -3561.4
    STOCK   2016-10-28-12-39-00   -145.4
    STOCK   2016-10-28-10-17-13   3375.9
    OPTION   2016-10-28-10-12-13   -3765.5
    OPTION   2016-10-28-10-23-25   -5010.2
    OPTION   2016-10-28-09-33-47   -303.1
    STOCK   2016-10-28-10-15-52   3586.3
    OPTION   2016-10-28-15-22-17   9687.9
    OPTION   2016-10-28-12-49-09   24334.6
    OPTION   2016-10-28-15-27-03   5161.9
    STOCK   2016-10-28-15-30-55   1236.4
    OPTION   2016-10-28-15-47-18   10108.5
    STOCK   2016-10-31-15-59-35   -2532.6
    STOCK   2016-11-01-11-08-12   111.5
    STOCK   2016-11-01-15-55-13   3974.7
    OPTION   2016-11-01-15-46-06   -5261.4
    STOCK   2016-11-01-15-46-07   4327.1
    STOCK   2016-11-02-10-51-22   -1535.9
    STOCK   2016-11-02-15-55-15   9018.1
    OPTION   2016-11-02-15-47-49   -7982.7
    OPTION   2016-11-02-10-50-36   -17686.4
    OPTION   2016-11-02-15-56-42   -6093.9
    STOCK   2016-11-03-10-38-54   -5429.8
    OPTION   2016-11-03-10-35-15   2960.4
    STOCK   2016-11-03-10-43-25   3754.3
    OPTION   2016-11-03-10-42-49   12397.1
    OPTION   2016-11-03-11-31-23   6959
    OPTION   2016-11-03-15-07-54   4900.5
    OPTION   2016-11-03-15-09-18   -1716.5
    OPTION   2016-11-03-15-08-22   -11038.8
    STOCK   2016-11-04-10-29-00   -5089.4
    OPTION   2016-11-04-13-06-13   12455.9
    OPTION   2016-11-04-10-29-51   41.9
    OPTION   2016-11-04-10-29-18   16.99999
  479. Nice good work
  480. Awful month. Account well below 200K now (my new poverty-line). Will not post any further updates until I cross above that line.
  481. Sorry to hear that. You know I always root for you.
    So what happened? The market had been in a strong uptrend. Did you bet against this trend or did you oversize one or two positions that went against you?
  482. I am not going to say anything, I am just sad...
  483. No point being happy or sad. Those emotions only affect trading for the worst.

    This is how neke trades: he wins big but sometimes loses even bigger. He is a Plunger!
    (Ideally it should be the other way around, (bigger winners) but this is just the way he trades).

    But eventually he comes back. The market humbles every trader sometimes.

    The good thing is he pulls out money from the market on regular basis and will always be ahead because of this.

    This loss will only make Neke a stronger trader in the future.

    Having said all that, i wish he would aim to make 50 to 100% a year, instead of trying to make that every month!
  484. He hasn't made any money in the last 24 months, since the fluctuations started. That is 2 years, zero profit in my book, but maybe I miscalculated it. (the 2 years, not the P/L)

    Let's say it isn't Neke but Whoever and he says: Hey guys, I am breakeven for the last 2 years and my record fluctuates +40%, -30%, etc. month to month.

    What would you tell to Whoever?

    Right. And I am sure there is absolutely no stress involved either....
  485. Neke's position sizing doesn't make any sense, yet he continues with it. Ed Seykota says everyone gets what they want out of the market, perhaps wild fluctuations is what Neke is looking for, deep down.
  486. Lots of hedge funds tread water for two years or more.
    Eventually they start to make money again.

    Neke is doing fine overall, but he does risk ruin with his aggressive bet sizes.
  487. Neke has brass balls.
  488. You need brass balls to sell real estate, not to trade.
  489. I was going to point that out, but thought i was being pedantic.

    The correct term is 'Balls of Steel'
  490. Sad to see neke stopping the updates. It was always a highlight of this website when he posted his trading results. Now all there is left to read are mundane posts from the wannabe traders.
  491. Where the hell do you get this shit from? Most hedge funds don't even beat the market and eventually most of them fail. Look up the 5 or 10 years survivor rate...*

    So although some might appreciate your mindless cheering, that is not what Neke needs. He needs serious adjustment. Mental and strategy...

    *Here I did it for ya:

    "Most hedge funds fail: their average life span is about five years. Out of an estimated seventy-two hundred hedge funds in existence at the end of 2010, seven hundred and seventy-five failed or closed in 2011, as did eight hundred and seventy-three in 2012, and nine hundred and four in 2013. This implies that, within three years, around a third of all funds disappeared. "

  492. Here I am going to share a Quora answer, because #2 applies to Neke:

    "What is the success rate of new funds?

    My data shows that 80%+ of startup funds ultimately fail.
    The reason why it may not seem that high (considering there are thousands of hedge funds in operation every year and hundreds launching per quarter), is because funds unfortunately die very slow deaths.

    Most PMs keep their funds open well past their expiration date, due predominantly to two reasons:
    1. They are simply not realistic regarding the viability of their fund (or lack thereof)....
    2. They are too emotionally tied to their business and dont shut down when "they should" (ie, poor performance, cant secure enough capital, cant secure good enough talent, etc). Countless PMs keep their funds open and dig into their own pockets for working capital for far too long past their respective expiration dates, out of pride.
    I hate to sound cold here but if more funds shut down when they should, there would be a lot less funds in existence today."


    TL;DR: They die a slow death due to pride...
  493. 80% of new traders fail just like 80% of new funds.

    But neke is passed that stage.

    He has over 10 year experience.

    And he continues to pull money out of the market.

    You want to compare him to funds that have been around for 10 years or more,
    most of those will have periods where no money is made for 2 years or more.