If you’re right it would be a great buying opportunity for all the perma bears who’ve missed on all the gains so far!
I think what you are trying to show on the chart is that we still have a lot of downside potential here on the S&P. 30% down would be ~2,000 ala 1987, whereas a drop similar to the 1929 crash would bring it down to ~600 (about 80%)? Do we see a 1929 scenario coming up here, or just a 1987? Is that what you are trying to ask/show/posit?
This crash shape is currently intact. I project 30% or more with some top 10 declining days by percentage, but I have no means to estimate that with total precision.
I hope you are right on this, especially the 2200 bit. That would a nice buy-in level indeed. But here is the scary bit for the near-term. Using weekly closing numbers, the peak to trough of the latter half of 2015 was ~260 points and went from mid July 2015 to mid Feb 2016. Took 7 months. We just exceeded that peak to trough range this year in only 2 months, from end of Jan to now. ~280 points. Hmmm!
Starting to buy below 2400 and going all in around 2200 might be a bit premature. Based on 1987, the low would be around 1900 Based on 1929, the low would be around 400 (the OP chart doesn't show the final 1932 low) Based on the last 2 bear markets, 2002 and 2008, the low would be between 1400 and 1600. August 1987 to December 1987 S&P 500 high: 337.89 Low: 221.24 Loss: 33.5 percent Duration: 3 months September 1929 to June 1932 S&P 500 high: 31.86 Low: 4.4 Loss: 86.1 percent Duration: 34 months