- No tapering - No rate hike - Unemployment et alia figures are still below expectations - Inflation still within target rates
Well he announced TWO rate hikes instead of one by 2023 and he's moved up the date for the first rate hike to combat inflation that's rising faster than everybody thought. Well I think that's enough to at least pause the market, if not induce a correction. I see a bit of sell-off in the upcoming days.
yea, they may juice it for one final leg up and a blow off top. But clearly, Biden is going to do Trumps work for him. They are showing large disparity within the Fed group and mention possibility of two hikes (dates are Def in motion). Each meeting from here will jawbone more toward hikes sooner than later. By early 2022, there will be 25 basis point hikes (too little to do anything quickly regarding inflation but enough to rattle the bull case going forward)) each meeting and all through 2023. So the bear case is strong going forward. A lot of people were hoping the Fed would get out in front of it today and do a 25 and schedule a few more 25s through this year and then end the rate hikes. By mid term, everything would be set for a resumption of the bull case that we had during Trump. Now all we have is a whole lot of Uncertainty. But as it looks now, going into 2024 will be Trump running on a "no more hikes campaign" and winning? He'll probably get the Fed to ease by his mid term. So, we got a scuffed NASDAQ till Trump starts campaigning and the inflation and bearish trade stays for all of Biden's term?