Your first question is easy. You could build a model of the form: second half of the season batting average = A * (first half of the season...
I don't think in terms of R^2 for this application. I'm trying to get a 55% win rate, meaning I need a 0.01 R^2 between my prediction and the...
S + N = 20%, this is what you observe. You can't measure S and N, you can only guess about them, hopefully with better than random accuracy. I...
I respectfully disagree with both. There's more honesty and fair play among gamblers than among Wall Street dealers. And both Wall Street and the...
You touch on some of the subtleties of shrinkage. It is a mathematical curiosity that you can improve estimates using completely unrelated...
Here's a non-sports example of pure shrinkage. A statistics professor instructs each student in the class to pick something that is unknown...
If I were just trying to predict NFL games, it would be easy to get high R^2, after all, the favorite wins about 2/3 of the time in the NFL. But...
Separate names with a comma.