I am not an expert on this but i would say first figure out if the strategy has positive expectancy. If the expectancy is positive then do a...
Thank you for the responses. However, I think I should be a bit clearer about what I am asking. I am aware that in the real world 5 periodic...
Hi, i just have a simple hypothetical question, this is not a test of an actual strategy, i just want to know the method of testing to see if a...
if you have not already seen this: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=33654&highlight=system+development+with+acrary
Your results also have the characteristics of a strategy that has been over optimized. of course it is hard to tell by just looking at an equity...
First you would need to see the probability of your profitable results being just luck. once you do that, you will have a p value. for example,...
sure, Here is one from UC Irvine, if you have a basic understanding of stats, it is pretty straight forward. PM me if you want more...
You should put the results you attained to the test. there is an good possibility that the results you attained are simply due to luck. the test...
You can do a hypothesis test to see the probability of obtaining the same results due to luck. This would tell you a lot about the edge and the...
The saddest thing I've read on ET in a while, keep it up.
I have been trying to do something like this, but have not had any success, how much improvement does combining your strategies make to your draw...
"Be wiser than other people if you can; but do not tell them so." - Lord Chesterfield
i was not aware of these facts. i guess i shouldn't put too much emphasis on self proclaimed market practitioners or PhD candidates.
so judging from the fact that you come from a statistics background, I'm sure you have analyzed your trading RESULTS for randomness? if so, what...
it seems like everyone is just arguing from extreme, opposite viewpoints. i think the statement by the OP that you cannot generate alpha without...
here is an interesting paper for people who are interested. i think its useless to argue about something from two extremes, in any case, i found...
Best post in the entire thread, kudos to you sir.
I'm not doubting the trading abilities of anyone here, but here is something to consider. i ran a random signal test where i tell my computer to...
in a trading universe which consists of so many traders, i would not be surprised to find a 12 year winning streak. imagine 100,000 market...
The rules that you chose have to provide you with some sort of advantage. Then you have to determine under what conditions does this advantage...
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