As long as you understand that you are always trading probabilities, I don't think the idea of prediction matters for any one trade. You can't...
"Believe" or "disbelieve" don't factor into it at all. You either find something that works or you don't. It's an empirical question, not a...
How do you get from A to B on this? If automation works, why would that require every institution to make money? Your conclusion doesn't follow...
Are there really all that many "consistently losing systems"? It would not surprise me if they are as rare as "consistently winning systems". I...
Would that imply that if your per-trade returns should show an increase correlated to the square root of the amount of time in the trade?...
Well, when I posted the thread, I was hoping some of the better posters would chime in with their own experience. There's been some food for...
While there is some relativity in the idea of benchmarking and it's not an apples to apples comparison, the reason you want to do it is so that...
Yes, my size estimate might be too low. That would mean fewer, but larger trades, taking the profit per hour down. At 1 400-lot trade per day,...
Soros sent his son to Niederhoffer to learn how to trade. I suppose Soros is tainted by association in your mind? If you were in Soros' shoes at...
If he traded 2 million contracts over 16 years, from the founding of his hedge fund until the time he wrote "Education of a Speculator", that is...
OK, dude, whatever. So, anyone else besides this tiddly-wanker jackhole have thoughts on Niederhoffer's quote?
You are the only one talking about win-loss ratios. Gross and net are definitely important for a trader. If my wins gross $500/trade, but my...
BTW, the $70 is NET, not GROSS. In your example, the NET profit per contract per trade is $0.
Right, but increasing the number of contracts traded won't alter the profit per contract. I do think that the profit per minute of time spent in...
I don't see anywhere in the quote where VN says he knew which trades would be winners or losers. Obviously, the ways in which a trader could...
There is absolutely a tradeoff between frequency and size of average gain. I always go back to the Niederhoffer stat because I think that with all...
From Niederhoffer's wiki entry: "Niederhoffer Investments returned 35% a year from inception through 1996, when MAR ranked it the No. 1 hedge...
OK, so to amend my analogy, I could take the temperature of NYC every millisecond and average them out to find that it was 50 degrees. Should I...
Why would you even want to try drawing conclusions from one day of observation? As an analogy, it was about 50 degrees in NYC today. Should I...
OK, I see a little more what your point is, although I would guess that there are many, many "tick or two"-seeking algos operating in almost every...
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