<<< (That is not a testament to whether or not I think the market is efficient). >>> You may have just initiated a new debate on a new topic! :D
Each strategy has its own advantages and disadvantages. The question you should answer is, would you rather have time decay working for you or...
I closed a couple of my credit spreads for July. Still have 18 open, in a variety of industries. With respect to volatility, I try to...
We had a 50% market crash from 2007 - 2008. Lasted about 18 months. Some would call that a black swan event because of the % drop. Others would...
<<< If you are writing credit spreads or iron condors or what ever other method- how do you protect yourself from Black swan event? >>> I write...
<<< I have had enough 'thank you' replies over the years to know that my responses have been appreciated more often than not. Just take a look at...
I pay more attention to how probable a trades success is likely to be, than what its R/R is. Short term trades tend to have wider R/R than...
Correct. My method is not for everyone. Neither are dagnyt's methods for everyone. We each have our own strengths, comfort zones, and...
I've been a trader for many years. But fairly new to the option world, in terms of being a well rounded trader. For now, I plan on becoming a...
I'm generally cautious between mid Sept and late Oct. But overall, I invest with the same attitude year round. That being, I like my stocks to...
I had 13 profitable putz credit spreads expire in June and one break even.... minus commission. I currently have 18 put spreads open for July....
I generally seek returns of 20 - 28% on my trades. The higher your goal, the more it becomes merely a "potential" return vs a probable one....
Just for the record, since I previously shared that I opened a june TASR spread here for $0.70. I just closed it for $0.70. Putz Master
Created a putz credit spread on BTU for Sept. Bought the $21 puts Sold the $22.50 puts Used 30 contracts. Credit of $0.27 While a credit of...
This thread was getting a bit long and OFF TOPIC (thanks xflat2186). Thus I'm initiating a new thread for its continuance. I'm hopeful there...
Created a putz spread on $22.50 / $20 SUN for August. Bought the $20 puts. Sold the $22.50 puts. Credit of $0.44 Probability of break...
Good info. I wouldn't have known I was using faulty data if you hadn't pointed it out.
They automatically adjust the IV settings to the stock I select. It changes with each stock. So I don't understand why they used 28% for IV....
What is 500bps? Is there another sight you can link me to for an improved probability calculator? I can't download programs, as I use a webtv....
I agree the 4% STIR they are using is high. My guess is they are using a longer or shorter HV in their calculations than you. That may pick up...
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