I am a student of probabilities and statistics -- especially interested in volatility as a tradable speculative object. Apr 2, 2016
A test of a disease presents a rate of 5% false positives. The disease strikes 1/1,000 of the population. People are tested at random, regardless of whether they are suspected of having the disease. A patient's test is positive. What is the probability of the patient being stricken with the disease?
"Fooled by randomness" - Taleb