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    Forums ›› Technically Speaking ›› Strategy (System) Design ›› "Scaling out" is inferior behavior  

Do you scale out of positions?
You do not have permission to vote on this poll.
I always scale out 103 14.09%
I scale out most of the time 205 28.04%
Most of the time, I do not scale out 179 24.49%
I never scale out 244 33.38%
Total: 731 votes 100%
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bigarrow
 

Registered: Mar 2005
Posts: 4551

 

11-15-11 02:07 PM


Quote from Buy1Sell2:

The trader with poor timing who scales would have taken profit on some of the positions earlier than the point that he removed all of them totally. This is one of the reasons all in all out benefits every system. It's not whose system is better at entries and exits. It's how the all in all out benefits a trade unto himself.



You keep supporting your thesis with a philosophical argument when it is a math problem. You need to supply the math to support your argument.

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Buy1Sell2
 

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 8117

 

11-15-11 02:18 PM

08-13-11 10:17 PM

Now, the example of the trader who is using a losing system:

Four ES Contracts 90% win ratio all in/all out versus
Four ES Contracts 90% win ratio scaling out at half target.

1 pt target 10 pt initial stop loss

1st example with 20 trades
18 winners for 1 X (4 contracts) = 72 pts ($3600)
2 losers for 10 X (4 contracts) = -80 pts (-$4000)
Net loss $-400


2nd example with 20 trades
18 winners for 1 X(2 Contracts)=36 pts ($1800)
18 winners for .5 X(2 Contracts)=18 pts ($900)
2 Losers for 10 X(4 Contracts) =-80 pts (-$4000)
Net loss $-1300

As you can see, even the trader who employs a losing system will lose less by not scaling out. --Ishmael

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Riffraffpatrol
 

Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 236

 

11-15-11 04:24 PM


Quote from Buy1Sell2:

The trader with poor timing who scales would have taken profit on some of the positions earlier than the point that he removed all of them totally. This is one of the reasons all in all out benefits every system. It's not whose system is better at entries and exits. It's how the all in all out benefits a trade unto himself.



Thanks B2S for proving my point that you don't know what you are talking about relative to scaling being inferior as universal truth-- you couldnt be farther from the truth.

You completely failed to explain how your logic benefits the real world example I gave you.

The reason is it clearly is a DETRIMENT--not a benefit.

You need to wake up to the reality that the ONLY way you could ever even possibly prove your notion is a benefit at all is after the fact- individually on a completed trade basis in which an analysis is made on the trader who had a set of rules on where one would scale vs where one would exit full position vs ultimately what the completed chart pattern revealed. Then... and ONLY then-- could you even prove whether it worked or not. In the meantime- while true the perfect entry is irrelevant-- a perfect exit on a full position is the only possible way in a completed trade that you could prove without any further analysis on whether your theory is correct-- are you that shallow that you cant acknowledge this???

Get off your high horse and humble yourself by admitting that your theory has major flaws.. It contains many assumptions that simply arent realistic. What is realistic however is my example I gave you- again of which you refused/failed to acknowledge.

Common sense? Riiiiighht...

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Riffraffpatrol
 

Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 236

 

11-15-11 04:48 PM


Quote from bigarrow:

You keep supporting your thesis with a philosophical argument when it is a math problem. You need to supply the math to support your argument.



He can't do it.

He will continue to repost useless drivel on a perfect scenario that obviously can be written to fit his thesis as a basis for it being universal truth... WITHOUT acknowledging the infintesimal scenarios where it fails...

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volente_00
 

Registered: Nov 2002
Posts: 13711

 

11-17-11 02:40 AM


Quote from Buy1Sell2:

08-13-11 10:17 PM

Now, the example of the trader who is using a losing system:

Four ES Contracts 90% win ratio all in/all out versus
Four ES Contracts 90% win ratio scaling out at half target.

1 pt target 10 pt initial stop loss

1st example with 20 trades
18 winners for 1 X (4 contracts) = 72 pts ($3600)
2 losers for 10 X (4 contracts) = -80 pts (-$4000)
Net loss $-400


2nd example with 20 trades
18 winners for 1 X(2 Contracts)=36 pts ($1800)
18 winners for .5 X(2 Contracts)=18 pts ($900)
2 Losers for 10 X(4 Contracts) =-80 pts (-$4000)
Net loss $-1300

As you can see, even the trader who employs a losing system will lose less by not scaling out. --Ishmael




key word is TARGET


If the trader is like you with no definitive target then they will almost always be more profitable with a smoother equity curve by scaling out instead of giving profit back to the market and even letting big winners to into losers.

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Riffraffpatrol
 

Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 236

 

11-17-11 03:11 AM


Quote from volente_00:

key word is TARGET


If the trader is like you with no definitive target then they will almost always be more profitable with a smoother equity curve by scaling out instead of giving profit back to the market and even letting big winners to into losers.



This is misleading....as if having a target changes things-- it doesn't.

Consider even if one does has a definirive target. What if price never gets there and reverses? Holding for an "all out" served what purpose? Certainly not one's wallet.

Scaling out at predetermined % levels toward T1 ALONG WITH MAINTAINING A REMAINDER OF THE POSITION for a continuation to T2 T3 etc on the other hand ensures
profitability.

If one wants to set a modest Target with no interest in pursuing further movement- obciously "all out" maximizes profit-- BUT ONLY IF THE TARGET IS HIT!! Hellooo...?

No one with certainty knows in advance if this will happen-- but I can tell you with utmost certainty- there will be plenty of times it wont.

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