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William Rennick
 

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 3425

 

09-27-06 04:43 PM

HGTRADER, I really thought you were making an objective analysis but now you are sounding more like a flamer. I do not, nor does the real "Crystal Ball" make specific entry/exit recommendations. The "Ball" simply provides morning and afternoon US equity Market forecasts.

I post these calls here for a trader/reader to do with it what they want. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to determine if it was a good call or not. This morning for example at 9:40 (dow -8) am the call said that the "BAll" was just barely positive calling for "Strongish" Market action this morning. With the Dow now +39, and the other Averages up slightly I'd say that is a very accurate call with 25 minutes to go in the AM session. I say that without taking into consideration of whether someone may have profited.

It's a free country and you can view the calls however you want, I just noted that your negative spin doesn't match my very positive reality. Show me something that beats it's accuracy and I'm there. So far I haven't found anything that even comes close. LONG LIVE THE MIGHTY BALL.

Rennick out

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JimmyJam
 

Registered: Oct 2005
Posts: 4780

 

09-27-06 05:21 PM


Quote from HGTrader:

Quote from JimmyJam:

...not the least of which are that you would need several months, if not years worth of data, plus the total call's session (morning and afternoon), as well as (very very important) the correct instructions on how to use the calls as an aid in your trading, as was previously stated.

.....
You have to update your records nightly, review the information over the weekend, put together tables showing actual buy/sell/close, number of points, etc. ... for months.


So now I need months and years to determine whether the crystal ball provides a solid edge ... I need years to determine that it possibly aint workin out.



Nah HGTrader (and BTW, I personally like the way you're doing an informed, objective analysis of the Ball), you don't need to use the Ball for months or years, you need to have access to months or years worth of data to prove whether the system has a statistical edge, or not.

You need a sufficently large data set over several different market conditions (uh, bullish, trading range, bearish) to have a complete analysis of its efficiency in all markets.
***
Like I said before, the winners don't have to prove something and they usually aren't charting their successes, they are just taking their money to the bank.

But thanks for the responses, you've obviously put some time, thought and effort into your analysis, and if anything, it should promote more interest in The Ball, not less.

I honestly don't think he's flamm'in ya Rennick, he's just using a weird sort of spurious, psuedo-scientific, half-logic, bad data analysis to attempt to disprove something, when you never came here to prove anything in the first place.

Of course, if he thinks you need to put on public display all of your information to satisfy his needs, well, take that for what it is.

More entertainment in slow markets is good.

Best Regards All,

Jimmy Jam

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William Rennick
 

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 3425

 

09-27-06 05:36 PM

JJ, I agree about liking his analytical style. I said so, but he's using fancy talk and flawed assumptions to slam a very simple to interpret Market call. I bet this guy calls up the TV station to yell at the weatherman when the temp forecast misses by a few degrees. I'm through responding, he certainly hasn't changed my mind. If anything I'd like to thank him as I really enjoyed reviewing all the calls posted here on ET. That damned thing has been better than I realized.

Rennick out

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krazykarl
 

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 2964

 

09-27-06 06:50 PM

do we have a call for the afternoon? i'm getting killed here!

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William Rennick
 

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 3425

 

09-27-06 07:17 PM

WED. 9/27 2:15pm Dow +26

[NOTE: Sorry for the lateness of today's post, I developed writers block with the schtick]


A chainsaw wielding Rennick enters the room rushing past a shocked Mrs.Rennick. He talks a confirming look at the mighty “Crystal Ball”, then picks up the “Ball” and hands it gently to a bewildered Mrs. Rennick. The crazed reader of the “Ball” returns to the chainsaw and with one powerful pull he fires it up. He now focuses his attention on the hardwood antique table where the ‘Ball’ had just rested and chainsaws it in half making sure to cut across the grain. He turns the chainsaw off and is now at the mic ready to speak:

The mystical Orb is NEGATIVE calling for WEAK Market action this afternoon. To best illustrate this cutting across the grain of popular consensus opinion( that today will see a new Dow record) that the “BALL has with it’s weak forecast I conducted the chainsaw demonstration, furtherm...” A violent frying pan swinging Mrs.Rennick charges a ducking Rennick who attempts to escape. “How dare you destroy my Grandmothers table in your stupid Market call” Mrs.Rennick screams.

(to be cont)

Needless to say, Rennick has left the building.

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William Rennick
 

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 3425

 

09-27-06 07:48 PM

BREAKING NEWS

Rennick Manor Chief of Security Callahan is at the microphone podium and will now issue a statement;:
" At approx. 1420 hours a caucasion male 6'3', 215# by the name of William Rennick fled the premises in a 2005 Winnebego Chieftain. He was being chased by a caucasan female 38-24-36, 118# who we shall call Mrs. Rennick in a black 2006 Chevy Suburban. It is believed that Mrs Rennick is armed and dangerous. That’s all I have for right now, I will go ahead and schedule a 1500 hours statement right here"

Callahan over

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