Quote from tortoise:
I know you're into Market Profile ... don't we have lower price acceptance here (vis-a-vis yesterday's mid-day and eod congestion, successively)?
Yes, but the market has tried very strongly to break away to the downside from that on three separate occasions, and so far has been unable. The failed auction below yesterday's low shows at least enough buyer interest to attempt a run for 67.50, IMO.
Of course if it were as simple as, acceptance lower means it's going to keep going down, then it would be very easy. But acceptance doesn't predict a future direction. What the market does around that area tells that, and buyers have finally since the 60s shown that they are interested. After a token push up at the beginning of the session, they have been pretty quiet, and they need a reason to buy higher. They may not have it yet, but the failed break of yesterday's low may provide enough impetus for them to continue to pay up.
It could as well be that this push up was simply necessary to auction for enough sellers higher to try again to break away to the downside. Either way, I'll at least break even on the long I'm in.