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bigsnack
Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 1478 |
03-06-12 09:42 PM
Quote from Laissez Faire:
Sounds interesting. What are you using for your studies?
I`ve done all my work in Excel for now and pretty much picked up how to do it from Steenbarger`s last book. If you did not already, I recommend you to check out his blog. He did a lot of historical studies on the market and was also a big fan of using the TICK as an intraday indicator. Not sure if it was his idea, but he created an indicator called the cumulative TICK which also may be worth looking into.
Thanks for the heads up. I have gone through Steenbarger's blog (per Josh's request earlier), but I haven't really digested the whole thing.
I am plotting conditions in excel and categorizing screenshots based off of morning behavior:
1. Did the market gap up / flat / gap down?
2. Where did the TICK open?
3. What did the morning session do movement wise?
4. What TICK values justified a change in trend for each respective day?
a. This becomes the most important research. For instance, what if on gap down days the TICK consistently needs to hit X value before the trend has officially changes to bullish?
b. What if TICK values are similar for my typical entry points based off of the "type" of day we are dealing with?
I'm hoping to try and categorize days a bit better, so that I can further pinpoint what I should be expecting before getting in. I'm working towards upping my contract size soon, so I want to make sure I haven't left any stones unturned before doing so.
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austinp
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 3079 |
03-06-12 09:50 PM
Quote from bigsnack:
Thanks for the heads up. I have gone through Steenbarger's blog (per Josh's request earlier), but I haven't really digested the whole thing.
I am plotting conditions in excel and categorizing screenshots based off of morning behavior:
1. Did the market gap up / flat / gap down?
2. Where did the TICK open?
3. What did the morning session do movement wise?
4. What TICK values justified a change in trend for each respective day?
a. This becomes the most important research. For instance, what if on gap down days the TICK consistently needs to hit X value before the trend has officially changes to bullish?
b. What if TICK values are similar for my typical entry points based off of the "type" of day we are dealing with?
I'm hoping to try and categorize days a bit better, so that I can further pinpoint what I should be expecting before getting in. I'm working towards upping my contract size soon, so I want to make sure I haven't left any stones unturned before doing so.
Well either all that if you have lots of time to waste, or you could simply let the market's own daily roadmap tell you what it intends to do with one simple glance 
 030612-cmroadmap-es.jpg
This has been downloaded 975 time(s).
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bigsnack
Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 1478 |
03-06-12 10:13 PM
Quote from austinp:
Well either all that if you have lots of time to waste, or you could simply let the market's own daily roadmap tell you what it intends to do with one simple glance
You know just as well as I do that it is not that simple. It's true that the market finds it's way to your fib numbers quite often. However, there are also days that they are never touched, or days where it makes a move towards one of your numbers, and then reverses and comes right back to the opening price. Like most discretionary plans, the money management makes or breaks this system. Either that, or there are nuances to it that you are leaving out, which is misleading if you come in here and say that trading is as easy as marking your lines and waiting for them to be hit.
Where does one get in? On the first pullback after a breakout of the opening 5 minute range? Where is your stop, and where do you add? That's the real edge IMO. If you are willing to share any of that insight, I'm all ears. 
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Macho
Registered: Jul 2011
Posts: 738 |
03-06-12 11:40 PM
Quote from bigsnack:
You know just as well as I do that it is not that simple. It's true that the market finds it's way to your fib numbers quite often. However, there are also days that they are never touched, or days where it makes a move towards one of your numbers, and then reverses and comes right back to the opening price. Like most discretionary plans, the money management makes or breaks this system. Either that, or there are nuances to it that you are leaving out, which is misleading if you come in here and say that trading is as easy as marking your lines and waiting for them to be hit.
Where does one get in? On the first pullback after a breakout of the opening 5 minute range? Where is your stop, and where do you add? That's the real edge IMO. If you are willing to share any of that insight, I'm all ears.
Don't hold your breath. He has been perfect since 33 A.D,because he will shares nothing.
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bigsnack
Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 1478 |
03-06-12 11:51 PM
Quote from Macho:
Don't hold your breath. He has been perfect since 33 A.D,because he will shares nothing.
Which is what I figured anyway. So in that case, I will have to keep wasting my time with my other project, since it involves the methods and the tools that I am familiar with. 
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