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Rickshaw Man
Registered: Jul 2004
Posts: 2016 |
06-12-05 03:17 PM
Quote from mhashe:
Keep it simple. Use the ADX with DMI
http://www2.barchart.com/support/le...STK&what=adxdir
I agree, weekly Dow ADX has been under 20 for 18 months. not much trend their. The longer it stays under 20 the better the next trend will be. The daily Dow ADX has been falling from over 40 for the last 6 weeks, its now under 15 as the Dow has been in a tight range for the past 3 weeks. These 70-100 point intraday swings are accumulation or distribution. something will happen soon IMO.
So for now just try and scalp some profits intra-day. and be happy.
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Thunderdog
Registered: Aug 2002
Posts: 10056 |
06-12-05 07:20 PM
Quote from John Merchant:
Anything numerical is numerological. Or is that numerillogical? Mike.
I tend to agree insofar as exploitable trend identification is concerned. Sometimes, however, I get a transient feeling that I'm just being lazy and that I should hunker down and try to figure out the math of trend identification in a way that it can be reliably exploited rather than only identified after the fact. When that happens, I usually just take a few deep, healthful, cleansing, life-affirming breaths of fresh air and the feeling miraculously goes away. It's really quite refreshing.
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LMeyers
Registered: Feb 2001
Posts: 141 |
06-12-05 08:06 PM
Quote from Rickshaw Man:
....These 70-100 point intraday swings are accumulation or distribution. something will happen soon IMO.
Yes, I think so too. I think that the indices are getting ready to start trending bigtime - to the upside.
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nononsense
Registered: Jun 2003
Posts: 4928 |
06-12-05 08:06 PM
Quote from Thunderdog:
I tend to agree insofar as exploitable trend identification is concerned. Sometimes, however, I get a transient feeling that I'm just being lazy and that I should hunker down and try to figure out the math of trend identification in a way that it can be reliably exploited rather than only identified after the fact. When that happens, I usually just take a few deep, healthful, cleansing, life-affirming breaths of fresh air and the feeling miraculously goes away. It's really quite refreshing.
(i) What makes you believe that there is a "math of trend identification"?
(ii) If such a "thing" would exist, what makes you believe that you could "figure it out"?
nononsense
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ssrrkk
Registered: Jun 2005
Posts: 433 |
06-12-05 09:19 PM
how about this. use your favorite spectral analysis tool to find the dominant wavelengths of your timeseries. ifyou do find long wavelength components that have much larger coefficients compared to your high-frequency components (i.e., you must screen for stocks with this property), then you might be able to choose the appropriate window for your moving average indicator... pretty basic idea that should be easy to back test.
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