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Thunderdog
Registered: Aug 2002
Posts: 10056 |
06-13-05 01:50 PM
Quote from nononsense:
(i) What makes you believe that there is a "math of trend identification"?
(ii) If such a "thing" would exist, what makes you believe that you could "figure it out"?
nononsense
Well, if you were to read my post again, you would see that:
(i) I don't; and
(ii) I don't.
Happy reading.
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thomas_spinner
Registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 55 |
06-13-05 01:54 PM
Usually the problem is that you don't know what kind of market it is, until it is already over. If you knew when to "switch" strategies, you would be rich!
-Thomas
Quote from Yag:
Hello all,
I am doing my first newbie attempts as far as creating (I'd even say goofying with) my own trading systems.
I have noticed that the principles that work during trending markets wont during the chop, and viceversa.
How could I express in conceptual terms (as opossed to computing terms, I know nothing about that) so a trading platform could apply one set of rules during a trending market and another set of rules during the chop?
The only idea I have come up with is requiring an initial filter, like price moving above over an EMA for a set number of periods in a row in order to apply the trend principles, otherwise apply the chop rule set. Any other ideas guys?
Cheers.
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Equalizer
Registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 1519 |
06-13-05 02:07 PM
Quote from Thunderdog:
Well, if you were to read my post again, you would see that:
(i) I don't; and
(ii) I don't.
Happy reading.
I think it was a case of NN seeing something in your post that wasn't really there?! 
Hmm... "Me thinks tis a weasel..."
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Thunderdog
Registered: Aug 2002
Posts: 10056 |
06-13-05 03:39 PM
Quote from gnome:
Bottom line... you have to presume/guess whether the market is "trend" or "range" and trade accordingly.
Well, if I had to guess, I would think that there may be a small minority of people out there who can identify a trend while it is still exploitable with better than random odds. I do not know how, and I do not count myself among them, but there are enough people in the world that the possibility exists. However, I would be willing to bet any amount of money that they could not do it with the kind of mathematical certainty or even "confidence" that some people here may believe or suggest. The study of human behavior, either individual or en masse, is not as tidy or elegant as the study of pure (hard) sciences such as mathematics, physics and the like.
As for trading markets that are either trending or range-bound, I try not to rely on the distinction. In my feeble attempt to circumvent the need for a distinction, I scale out of trades. Sometimes it plays out well, and sometimes I get the worst of all possible worlds. But for now, it is the best I can do.
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gnome
Registered: Jun 2002
Posts: 10007 |
06-13-05 03:59 PM
Quote from Thunderdog:
Well, if I had to guess, I would think that there may be a small minority of people out there who can identify a trend while it is still exploitable with better than random odds. I do not know how, and I do not count myself among them, but there are enough people in the world that the possibility exists. However, I would be willing to bet any amount of money that they could not do it with the kind of mathematical certainty or even "confidence" that some people here may believe or suggest. The study of human behavior, either individual or en masse, is not as tidy or elegant as the study of pure (hard) sciences such as mathematics, physics and the like.
As for trading markets that are either trending or range-bound, I try not to rely on the distinction. In my feeble attempt to circumvent the need for a distinction, I scale out of trades. Sometimes it plays out well, and sometimes I get the worst of all possible worlds. But for now, it is the best I can do.
In other words.... "guess".
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