Sortof. This bigger player beats you statistically since they have the opportunity to have many, many more, " limited win(s), limited loss(es)". The 9/10 win ratio is realized best through the largest possible number of trades. Law of large numbers. The bigger player also beats you because their fee ratio (fee per trade) is much lower.
If through an "infinite" number of trades you are able to construct a win ratio of 9/10, you aren't gambling because the result is a certainty.
Trouble is, the average person doesn't have the luxury of an "infinite" number of trades. Therefore, while we are small players there is a gambling component.
I guess I just contradicted myself.
nope, not infinite.
If you would want to be accepted in my 9/10 club.
you must make it with 20 trades.
with 5/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 2.
with 2/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 1.
with 1/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 0,5.
20 trades is all you got. If you cant make it, call me when you want to try again.....
you must make it with 20 trades.
with 5/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 2.
with 2/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 1.
with 1/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 0,5.
20 trades is all you got. If you cant make it, call me when you want to try again.....
Yes, but you know what I mean, don't you? When you backtest your strategy, and find that you have a 9/10 win ratio over a period of 10 years, you do realize that if you were to randomly select 1 year in that period, you'd likely find that your win ratio was much less than that for that period of time. Flip a coin 10 times, and you may get heads every time; Flip a coin 100 times, and you'll get closer to 50/50; Flip it 1 million times, and it will be almost exactly 50/50.
Yes, but you know what I mean, don't you? When you backtest your strategy, and find that you have a 9/10 win ratio over a period of 10 years, you do realize that if you were to randomly select 1 year in that period, you'd likely find that your win ratio was much less than that for that period of time. Flip a coin 10 times, and you may get heads every time; Flip a coin 100 times, and you'll get closer to 50/50; Flip it 1 million times, and it will be almost exactly 50/50.
Yes i know what you mean, but i do not agree with it.
Actually when i am backtesting my strategies, i have a 10/10 ratio, only the profits ranking is different.
9/10 is only because everything can happen anytime.....
If you analyze statistic for one year or for 10 years, makes no differnece, its just added data.
You must realize, that i am always only bet on high possible odds scenarios, every single time.
So the number of the trades i analyze makes no difference in the result of the statistically outcome. no, but it proves the point that the strategies are worked for a long time and are very strong in their repeating power. The more data i include to the statistic, the better the statistic gets.
(This was my last post here. I am tired of people who insulting me. Dont need this.)
Insulting you? When? Sorry, that was never my intention.
Thanks for your help.
No, not you.
You are allright, buddy.
Thank you for the nice conversations.
Read my motivation thread in psychology, if you feel bad.
I do sometimes and i makes me smile .......
Get urself in a Rocky Balboa mood and make money + safe money.
U can do it, u will do it.
I know it.
You are just, how i was a few years ago.
In a few years you can be a millionair.
Best advice ever: Only trade the best setups. The best of the best, is just good enough. But, then bet huge on it.
Take profits if price did what you wanted.
Dont be greedy, dont have fear.
Yes, but you know what I mean, don't you? When you backtest your strategy, and find that you have a 9/10 win ratio over a period of 10 years, you do realize that if you were to randomly select 1 year in that period, you'd likely find that your win ratio was much less than that for that period of time. Flip a coin 10 times, and you may get heads every time; Flip a coin 100 times, and you'll get closer to 50/50; Flip it 1 million times, and it will be almost exactly 50/50.
Remember backtesting doesn't work, cannot by simple environmental considerations. No way to replicate all the possible outside criteria, 9/11, Greece, Fed rates, BK filings, reaction to earnings (how many "super earnings" have resulted in price drop?), etc.
Backtesting may tell you what cannot work, but in no way can tell you what will work going forward due to outside elements.
