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View Poll Results: Is Trading Gambling or not
Gambling 438 34.90%
Not Gambling 817 65.10%
Voters: 1255. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Feb 19th, 2012, 02:33 AM   #1105
HATEtheRisk
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,587
Quote:
Quote from bhardy307:

Sortof. This bigger player beats you statistically since they have the opportunity to have many, many more, " limited win(s), limited loss(es)". The 9/10 win ratio is realized best through the largest possible number of trades. Law of large numbers. The bigger player also beats you because their fee ratio (fee per trade) is much lower.

If through an "infinite" number of trades you are able to construct a win ratio of 9/10, you aren't gambling because the result is a certainty.

Trouble is, the average person doesn't have the luxury of an "infinite" number of trades. Therefore, while we are small players there is a gambling component.

I guess I just contradicted myself.
nope, not infinite.

If you would want to be accepted in my 9/10 club.

you must make it with 20 trades.
with 5/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 2.
with 2/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 1.
with 1/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 0,5.

20 trades is all you got. If you cant make it, call me when you want to try again.....

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Old Feb 19th, 2012, 07:22 AM   #1106
SimpleTrades
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,384
Quote:
Quote from HATEtheRisk:

nope, not infinite.

If you would want to be accepted in my 9/10 club.

you must make it with 20 trades.
with 5/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 2.
with 2/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 1.
with 1/10 trades, risk/reward minimum 1 : 0,5.

20 trades is all you got. If you cant make it, call me when you want to try again.....



Yes, but you know what I mean, don't you? When you backtest your strategy, and find that you have a 9/10 win ratio over a period of 10 years, you do realize that if you were to randomly select 1 year in that period, you'd likely find that your win ratio was much less than that for that period of time. Flip a coin 10 times, and you may get heads every time; Flip a coin 100 times, and you'll get closer to 50/50; Flip it 1 million times, and it will be almost exactly 50/50.
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Old Feb 19th, 2012, 11:42 AM   #1107
HATEtheRisk
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,587
Quote:
Quote from bhardy307:



Yes, but you know what I mean, don't you? When you backtest your strategy, and find that you have a 9/10 win ratio over a period of 10 years, you do realize that if you were to randomly select 1 year in that period, you'd likely find that your win ratio was much less than that for that period of time. Flip a coin 10 times, and you may get heads every time; Flip a coin 100 times, and you'll get closer to 50/50; Flip it 1 million times, and it will be almost exactly 50/50.
Yes i know what you mean, but i do not agree with it.

Actually when i am backtesting my strategies, i have a 10/10 ratio, only the profits ranking is different.

9/10 is only because everything can happen anytime.....

If you analyze statistic for one year or for 10 years, makes no differnece, its just added data.

You must realize, that i am always only bet on high possible odds scenarios, every single time.

So the number of the trades i analyze makes no difference in the result of the statistically outcome. no, but it proves the point that the strategies are worked for a long time and are very strong in their repeating power. The more data i include to the statistic, the better the statistic gets.

(This was my last post here. I am tired of people who insulting me. Dont need this.)

Good luck, bhardy
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Old Feb 19th, 2012, 11:49 AM   #1108
SimpleTrades
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,384
@HateTheRisk.

Insulting you? When? Sorry, that was never my intention.

Thanks for your help.
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Old Feb 19th, 2012, 11:54 AM   #1109
HATEtheRisk
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,587
Quote:
Quote from bhardy307:

@HateTheRisk.

Insulting you? When? Sorry, that was never my intention.

Thanks for your help.
No, not you.

You are allright, buddy.

Thank you for the nice conversations.

Read my motivation thread in psychology, if you feel bad.
I do sometimes and i makes me smile .......

Get urself in a Rocky Balboa mood and make money + safe money.

U can do it, u will do it.

I know it.

You are just, how i was a few years ago.

In a few years you can be a millionair.

Best advice ever: Only trade the best setups. The best of the best, is just good enough. But, then bet huge on it.
Take profits if price did what you wanted.
Dont be greedy, dont have fear.

Get what belongs to you.

Good luck

(I am off, last post, seriously)

Bye

    Quote
Old Feb 19th, 2012, 01:15 PM   #1110
Don Bright
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 11,757
Quote:
Quote from bhardy307:



Yes, but you know what I mean, don't you? When you backtest your strategy, and find that you have a 9/10 win ratio over a period of 10 years, you do realize that if you were to randomly select 1 year in that period, you'd likely find that your win ratio was much less than that for that period of time. Flip a coin 10 times, and you may get heads every time; Flip a coin 100 times, and you'll get closer to 50/50; Flip it 1 million times, and it will be almost exactly 50/50.
Remember backtesting doesn't work, cannot by simple environmental considerations. No way to replicate all the possible outside criteria, 9/11, Greece, Fed rates, BK filings, reaction to earnings (how many "super earnings" have resulted in price drop?), etc.

Backtesting may tell you what cannot work, but in no way can tell you what will work going forward due to outside elements.

Don
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