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View Poll Results: Is Trading Gambling or not
Gambling 438 34.90%
Not Gambling 817 65.10%
Voters: 1255. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Nov 28th, 2010, 02:43 PM   #919
ElectricSavant
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Sweden, California, Colorado & New York
Posts: 14,844
note: kingfisher states prediction is a fools game....he says traders try to make a jackpot....see below

sooo. .. readers what say you? have you voted?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showth...56#post3021456
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Old Nov 28th, 2010, 02:51 PM   #920
kingfisher3210
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 77
Quote:
Quote from ElectricSavant:

kingfisher3210,

ahhhh...(after five years and 153 pages of posts with 79856 views).

...this is the question to you kingfisher3210: is Statistical Trading "not gambling"....Did you vote?

This is important.

Es
Yes i voted. It is not gambling.

Sorry boss to deviate from main topic.
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Old Dec 19th, 2010, 01:18 PM   #921
latinotrader
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 121
Quote:
Quote from kingfisher3210:

I was pissed off with fundamentals and technicals because it seemed nothing worked consistently.

Then one day starting from Oct 1, 2010 i started to maintain a journal of an Asian future market which i trade recording how the price behaved- Where it opened, where it hit high, where low, where it closed.

I started to understand, memorize and revise the journal every day and the neurons and synapses inside my brain have started to get hang of things.

Trading is 100% collective psychology. No single technical indicator can help to make profit consistently until and unless one does not read the collective psychology. Reading the markets correctly is imperative.

I have tracked 41 trading days in journal, revised every trading day hundred of times and i am able to understand why market behaves how it behaves.

I only need price to work on my trades.
Of course I know you won't reveal your system
but could you give some general guidelines for newbies?
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Old Dec 19th, 2010, 02:38 PM   #922
redondoman
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 10
Quote:
Quote from wave:

Then all homeowners are gamblers as well. They fool themselves into thinking it's an investment. A home is a consumption item and you're betting it might rise in price as well.
Wrong. Here in SoCal buying a home between 1996 - 2006 was a sure bet and an EASY investment. I've flipped many new construction homes where I only put down $2K - $5k as a deposit, used 100% bank financing to buy once the home was built and sold before the first mortgage payment was due, for $65k - $100k profits per house. In fact, I can think of no better investment that I could have made during those years.

Of course now that the RE market is down trending that gig is up. It was very easy to see the reversal before it happened. March 2007 Subprime lending went away -- game over.

So the real answer to this thread is NEITHER. For those that are skilled and know how to trade, trading is INVESTING. Those that are new and do not understand market trends, fundamentals, psychology and how to trade are GAMBLING. It's that simple.
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Old Dec 21st, 2010, 09:51 AM   #923
eurotrash
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 6
Quote:
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Lets examine this example. Please be patient with my simple minded ways and plain talk...

You trade an instrument and go long and short at the same time in it. You set up your trades with targets in equal increments.

So lets say were long on EUR/USD and our profit targets are 20 pips. As the long side goes up we are entering and exiting each 20 pips. The short side is accumulating entries temporarily. When it reverses then the opposite will happen. You would need to learn to carry high unrealized P/L. but your profit comes from the boxed in volatility grabbing....

Take a trade size based on a 10 year range of the instrument.
Hi ElectricSavant,

About a month ago I came up with this exact same idea (although a different number of pip increments), but I've set it aside after being unable to come up with a way to handle the drawdown. Yes it would work fantastically during ranging periods, but when the market starts to trend you would accumulate such a massive drawdown that not even the best intraday volatility would make up for. For example, using your 20 pip increments, after price moves ~500 pips against your first losing position, you would have on 25 losing positions and a single 20 pip move against you at that point will be ~500 extra pips drawdown. 100 pips against you and you've just added nearly 3000 pips to your unrealized losses. Even if you cut your losses/reset at a certain pip # drawdown, you would still need a market which has sufficient intraday volatility but slow moving longer term. At least as far as I can see. Haven't been able to find one that suits it yet, though certain European cross currencies look interesting.

My question then (off topic I know), did you come across this problem, and did you find a way around it? (Just whether you did or not, not asking for the solution.)

Thanks
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Old Dec 21st, 2010, 02:12 PM   #924
ElectricSavant
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Sweden, California, Colorado & New York
Posts: 14,844
Wow..That was a long time Ago! Yes I came to the same conclusions you did...

Trading is Gambling...or Not Gambling...Did you vote ?

ES

P.S. Trade size and spacing for a 10 Year Range would tie up too much capital and you would need to enter in the middle. Also interest earning carry trades sometimes change with this extreme long term strategy...then what do you do? I have a carry trade going now...you can see my blog/hub.

Quote:
Quote from eurotrash:

Hi ElectricSavant,

About a month ago I came up with this exact same idea (although a different number of pip increments), but I've set it aside after being unable to come up with a way to handle the drawdown. Yes it would work fantastically during ranging periods, but when the market starts to trend you would accumulate such a massive drawdown that not even the best intraday volatility would make up for. For example, using your 20 pip increments, after price moves ~500 pips against your first losing position, you would have on 25 losing positions and a single 20 pip move against you at that point will be ~500 extra pips drawdown. 100 pips against you and you've just added nearly 3000 pips to your unrealized losses. Even if you cut your losses/reset at a certain pip # drawdown, you would still need a market which has sufficient intraday volatility but slow moving longer term. At least as far as I can see. Haven't been able to find one that suits it yet, though certain European cross currencies look interesting.

My question then (off topic I know), did you come across this problem, and did you find a way around it? (Just whether you did or not, not asking for the solution.)

Thanks
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