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ratboy88
 

Registered: Dec 2003
Posts: 6163

 

01-02-05 12:50 PM


Quote from larrybf:

unlike stocks..............there are no margin calls with mortgages.....so as long as people pay their "monthly nut", they may be poorer...........BUT there should be little drastic financial turmoil based upon this one factor.



well when we keep losing middle class jobs and the standard of living keeps incrementally declining, eventually the defaults will snow ball and this will collapse pricing. people will quit trying to make payments on a house they are considerably upside down on. when asian debt holders realize they are holding the bag and they start dumping this debt, rates will have nowhere to go except up. at that point, these McMansions will return to a "fair" value. consumer debt is at chronic levels...there will be no soft landing. the fed has painted themselves into a corner and now they lie each time they raise rates. they are not trying to curb growth....they are trying to delay the inevitable. all fiat money systems eventually reveal themselves as ponzi schemes.... just a matter of when, not if. the winner is the federal reserve banks who know what they are doing and have already bought up assets with their worthless greenbacks.

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libertad
 

Registered: Apr 2004
Posts: 3508

 

01-02-05 01:40 PM

Well its not only checkmate to the US...but to the Asian countries who benefited from selling to the US previously/continually...

The current economic position is the result of the smoothing of the previous cycles the US used to have...just like mortgage interest changes have been smoothed...

The goal of the fed is to prevent economic disruption caused by the old boom/bust heavy inventory buildups that were reflective of the disintermediation/intermediation type of fed interventions...

The Asian counterparts should possibly be even more interested in cheaper dollars just as you buy any other good company when stocks in general are low....which does require long term thinking...

Averaging down the US dollar when combined with the increasing interest that the CB pays is a smart strategy as long as there is an upward movement sometimes in the future......

Buying the direct obligations of the US by averaging down and collecting the increasing interest rates is really not that speculative versus the other large plays in the world...corporations cannot print money...tax people...and issue debt backed by these capabilities....

Other factors that might be interesting is for the US public to become cash to cash players in currencies just like it was in Europe before the EURO....or what if the world walks closer to a central currency....this would provide even more smoothness...

This would be very interesting because labor would then be a clearer 1:1 playing field....Labor would be paid its due anywhere in the world...would equilibrate....

The key for the fed now is the smoothness of change....

Its not that you get to the price you want...its how you get there....

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ShoeshineBoy
 

Registered: Jul 2001
Posts: 4225

 

01-02-05 08:24 PM


Quote from jem:


There were tons of this is a bubble believers including me. I think I was wrong. It was no bubble. It was the market. People do not need to buy stock. People need to buy houses in Southern California. Of course I could be wrong.



Isn't the issue what businesses will do? I have heard that the prices are now so high that a two income, middle class family can now not even come close to affording a three bedroom home in much of SoCal. This is creating a nasty environment for "knowledge workers" and is already (or so I have heard) driving businesses away to other part of the country. When that happens, a correction could follow, right?

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ShoeshineBoy
 

Registered: Jul 2001
Posts: 4225

 

01-02-05 08:26 PM


Quote from erierambler:

When the time comes most will then transfer to a fixed rate .



But that takes cash, doesn't it? Which realistically will put many only more in debt?

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winter
 

Registered: Apr 2004
Posts: 1177

 

01-02-05 08:33 PM


Quote from omcate:

I believe that there is "margin call" for mortgage.

The house owner borrowed a fixed amount of money using his/her real estate property as collateral. What will happen, if the market value of the house drops well below the mortgage loan? Since a bank hates to lose money, I ***THINK*** they will either ask for more collateral, or take over the property(and then sell it immediately).

Really? Must be a regional thing, where I am I've never heard of such a thing for an owner-occupied residential mortgage. I'm surprised anyone would agree to such terms in a mortgage.

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monee
 

Registered: Jul 2001
Posts: 434

 

01-02-05 08:48 PM


Quote from winter:

Really? Must be a regional thing, where I am I've never heard of such a thing for an owner-occupied residential mortgage. I'm surprised anyone would agree to such terms in a mortgage.



I agree.

On a related note in some states if after a foreclosure sale there is a deficiency if the borrower can go to court and can show the mkt value of the house is below that of the mortgage the lender can not pursue a deficiency judgement.

I remember reading about farmers years ago in the midwest that did have a clause in their mortgage stating that if the value of the farm fell below that of the mortgage the lender could foreclose and some lenders did foreclose.

Seems fishy why a lender would foreclose if the borrower is still paying...

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