Prince Philip
Registered: Mar 2004
Posts: 240 |
04-28-04 10:12 PM
Quote from tcosync:
Hi,
Would you care to share on what you mean by "luck"? I'd love to hear some examples of successful traders who have been blessed by this "luck".
Why I ask is that the more I trade, the more I realize that one requires more than trading skills to be successful. It is like you have to be psychologically ready to receive all that money. Is this what you are talking about?
Yes, luck.
I had my kick in the arse from lady luck during the Russian debt crisis of 98, which spilled over to LTCM, the yen cash and carry and the S&P. If you are not familiar with this, just have a look a look at some at some of the charts of this period.
How did the luck work? Originally I did the bund arb from the liffe floor to the DTB (Eurex). I came in late, perhaps only 18 months before the floor died, and to be honest was never that good at it. Competition was, by then, extremely tough, but none the less there was an edge, and others ( Hey Larry) were extremely good at it and making a fortune. My luck was that I tried to make up for my relatively poor performance by systemising my theries on the market. For what ever reason, it also became clear that I had a little talent seeing the markets move in and out of correlation (or negative correlation) with each other. Anyway, during October '98, the inverse relationship between the bund (or any of the bond markets) and the equities, particularly the s&P became very easy to read. This completely changed the risk reward skew for putting on trades, and to be honest I just found it very easy. From August 98 to to Nov '98 I made some interesting returns on my account, and it was this that was the catalyst and the 'luck'. After that the market caught on and the edge reduced to meaningless, but by then one had such an innate feel for the underlying market, coupled with a blinding confidence ( which brings it own price) that the die was cast.
I was ready for it. I worked extremely hard to be in aposition to take advantage of it, and when the chance did come I grabbed it and pushed it as hard as i could, but ultimately I was simply lucky to have been there at that time. As were the arbs were who started 5 years before me. Eventually one realises that the luck is to some degree self induced by hard work, optimism, hard work and repayment for helping others.
As for being
''psychologically ready to receive all that money'
I was and I wasn't. What I now understand is that you have to believe, at a very fundamental level, that you deserve the money. I have been a student of hypnosis and the like for a few years now - very useful at dinner parties - and have found this discipline to be of immense value.
The hardest thing to come to terms with is when you finally realise not just how much money you are making, but what the actual potential is. From then on you start to leave the normal world as you may know it, and that again bringhs many lessons.
I hope this helps a bit.
psychologically ready to receive all that money
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